Monthly Archives: May 2013

by | May 24, 2013 · 2:13 pm

Some Minor Promotions

The Mariners roster is in disarray.  There are moves that have happened (Jesus Montero is in Tacoma), moves that might be happening (nobody knows what’s going on with Andino as of 1:50 P.M. today) and moves that should happen (Aaron Harang is still on the roster).  There is mass speculation on what the Mariners should do.  Some of it is intelligent, some of it isn’t at all.  Most people calling into radio stations aren’t, I’ve found in the last two days.

This paragraph should be a separate blog post but I wanted to throw it in anyway.  Form your own opinions on these Mariners roster decisions (and all decisions for that matter).  When you do, form the opinions after you are informed and read multiple reports.  There are plenty of statistics and a fountain of information a few clicks away.  Go make informed opinions.

I’m not going to add to the Mariner speculation mainly because there is too much of it right now.  Instead, this post is about guys down in the lower minors who may be promoted to a higher level in the next month or so, due to good performance.  I’ll start with the low minors and work my way up, picking a few guys from each level.

Clinton Lumberkings (One of the best mascot names)

Dylan Unsworth (SP) – Unsworth has put up great numbers in the minors in the last year and a half.  His K/BB ratio is 34/2 right now.  He’s pitcher 47 innings and has walked 2 guys.  He is right-handed and doesn’t crack 90 MPH so odds are against him but I’m interested in how his 2.49 ERA and one HR given up all year would translate in Jackson (AA) or High-Desert (high-A).

Grady Wood (RP) – Wood is the closer in Clinton.  He’s sporting a 2.78 ERA and has a 20/5 K/BB ratio.  He’s 23 and was drafted last year where he pitched for Everett.  I should state that Clinton usually favors pitchers while High-Desert heavily favors hitters.

Others worth considering:
Tyler Pike (SP) 38 IP, 2.37 ERA, 34/17 K/BB
Dario Pizzano (RF) .327/.396/.483 14 doubles and 3 HR

High-Desert Mavericks 

Ji-Man Choi (1B) – Choi is somewhat of a cult hero in the Mariners minor league system.  He has always put up good numbers but never seems to stay healthy.  This year he has been on the field and, surprise, he’s put up great numbers.  He’s gone through position changes and is at first base right now (although he has played a little bit of third).  Choi just had his 21 game hit streak snapped.  His slash line is .356/.449/.658 bringing his OPS to 1.107.  It’s not all High Desert, either.  On the road his OPS is still over 1.000.  The downside to Choi, other than the health issues, is that he doesn’t have a lot of home run power.  He’s hit 6 home runs (3 on the road, 3 at home) but he does hit a lot of doubles (21) and plays good defense.  He has 30 extra base hits in 40 games.  Of all of the guys I want called up to the next level, Choi probably tops the list.

Chris Taylor (SS) – So, who’s the Mariners shortstop of the future?  Chris Taylor is entering that conversation (along with Nick Franklin, Carlos Triunfel, and Brad Miller).  Taylor was drafted last year out of the University of Virginia (he was teammates with Danny Hultzen and John Hicks, also in the Mariners system).  Taylor has hit at every level, so far, and is probably the best defensive shortstop in the system.  Taylor is hitting  .342/.444/.522 with an OPS of .966.  His OPS on the road is .860, so he’s not solely benefitting from High Desert.  He doesn’t have a ton of power (19 extra base-hits in 46 games) but he has good plate discipline.  Brad Miller just got called up to Tacoma, so Taylor may be sent up to Jackson before this post is finished.  That seems like it’d be a good move.

Others Worth Considering:
George Mieses (RP) 23.2 IP, 4.94 ERA, 26/10 K/BB (ERA is tough to judge in High Desert).

Jackson Generals 

Taijuan Walker (SP) 52 IP, 2.77 ERA, 57/25 K/BB

Walker is still probably the top prospect in the Mariners system.  People say he’s struggling, but these numbers aren’t really showing that.  His walks are higher than everyone would like but a little bit of wildness doesn’t put me off as much as it does others.  His strikeouts are through the roof and opposing batters are hitting .197 against him.  Walker could receive a promotion once Harang is DFA’d or a few Tacoma pitchers are called up.  

Julio Morban (OF) 

Julio is like Ji-Man Choi or Franklin Gutierrez, if you’d rather.  He puts up great numbers while on the field but he can’t stay on the field enough.  When Morban is on the field he is easily their best outfield prospect.  Morban’s slash line is .344/.394/.563 making his OPS .957.  Morban has only played in 27 games this year though and that’s the real problem.  Having him healthy would be a big boost for the Mariners system.

Others Worth Considering:
Chance Ruffin (SP) 47 IP, 2.87 ERA, 33/10 K/BB (Yes, he was bad, but he seems to be doing well in the new starting role.  He could just be benefitting due to the lower level though.)
Carson Smith (RP) 14.1 IP, 3.14 ERA, 20/5 K/BB (Smith had a rough beginning to the season but has since calmed down and looked very good.  I mean, look at those strikeouts.)

As I mentioned, Brad Miller has just been called up to Tacoma to replace Triunfel.  As a hitter, think of him as Kyle Seager.  A few home runs here and there but more doubles than anything.  Although Nick Franklin is a popular target at this point, Miller could become just as popular in a matter of weeks.

Until next time!  Believe Big!

Andrew

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by | May 21, 2013 · 3:07 pm

The Looming Giant

IMG_0681

 Almost a year and a half ago, a renovation started following the Huskies losing yet another game to the Oregon Ducks.  The old stadium was in need of an upgrade and we are quickly approaching the result of that upgrade.  The track in Husky Stadium is removed.  The seats have moved down.  The east end-zone seats aren’t removable bleachers.  The south-side of the stadium has been redone.  The student section has been moved to a much improved west-side of the stadium.  There is no question that the renovation will be an upgrade.  In college football, teams usually have to build their own momentum.  Steve Sarkisian and his team catch a break in that a new stadium is a program-changer and could add a boost to the season.  Whether they can take advantage of this giant change to the program remains to be seen.
It’s easy to say that this year is just another year for Husky football.  That’s true.  Truthfully, no year is bigger than the next in sports.  We remember different seasons for the events they hold but, assuming your fandom stays on a steady level, all of the seasons should hold the same amount of importance.  But, those inside the program probably see things differently.  I think if you asked Sark and Woodward, off the record, they would tell you that this year is more important for the Huskies than any year in at least a decade.
Here are the University of Washington season tickets that were sold in the last few years.  These are final, but they are the best data I could find.
2012 — 40,482
2011 — 42,231
2010 — 44,109
2009 — 40,600
2008 — 43,497
2007 — 43,516
2006 — 42,598
So far this year, the school has already received about 44,500 ticket renewals.  Season tickets have just gone on sale to the public in the last few weeks so I’d expect that number to go up by a couple thousand before the season.  44,500 is already more tickets sold than any of the previous seven years.  If the Huskies have a successful season then sales will only go up in following years.  This would be a huge boost for the program and, as we learned from Oregon, the more money you have the better off you are.
Sark is entering his fifth year on the job and the Huskies record hasn’t improved the last two seasons.  Yes, it appears that the program is in better shape than two years ago but there isn’t a record to show for it.  As we all know, that is what’s really important.  If the Dawgs finish another year at 7-6, the calls for Sark’s job will grow louder.  Expectations keep growing, as they should, and it’s time for the program to take the next step.  Sark knows that.  The players know that.  Woodward knows that and the fans know that.  Another mediocre year wouldn’t kill the program but would clearly put it back a step.  Ticket sales for the following year would almost assuredly go down and the raucous crowds wouldn’t be nearly as raucous.
We’re still about three months away from the first Husky game.  There will be plenty of time to grow more excited and examine the chances of a Rose Bowl run.  Even with all this time until kickoff, it’s easy to see that this season will be an important one for the University of Washington.  The school has torn down and rebuilt a giant.  Now, as you drive across the 520 bridge you can see that giant looming.  Much like the giant season ahead.
Andrew

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by | May 14, 2013 · 3:18 pm

The Real Bully

There once was a boy named Edward.  He was entering the fourth grade and was rather excited.  At this point in time he had established himself as a school veteran.  Like any kid entering the fourth grade, he had experienced some highs and some lows.  Edward could never forget the P.E. championship his 3-on-3 basketball team won in the Fall of his first grade year.  There was that friendship he extended for a little too long early in third grade with Vin, but, as he’s learned from his friend Chuck across the street, we all make mistakes.  He had every reason to be excited about the 4th grade.

Then it came.  It’s still a mystery, even to this storyteller, how bullies pick their victims.  Edward wasn’t as popular as others but he was a loyal friend.  His family wasn’t as rich as others but wasn’t as poor as others either.  I guess Edward just fell through the cracks.

You couldn’t blame all of Edward’s pain on the bully at first.  Edward put himself in a bad situation.  He drank way too much coffee, which for some reason became a point of ridicule.  He traded his baseball cards with the wrong person (don’t even get me started on the guy on the other side of the trades, Ike).  He tried to stop the bullying before it began but didn’t put his whole heart into it, thinking it would just go away.  Sure, he appealed to his teachers.  They said to just ignore it and things would go back to normal.  He appealed to his friends.  They too, grew scared and didn’t invest their time anymore.

Once the bullying had taken place for a few weeks, Edward felt empty.  That emptiness lasted for six months.  Six long, hard months.  Chuck across the street wasn’t doing well, and that didn’t help take away any of his agony.  There were new guys who moved in, Pete and Paul, but they didn’t stop the bullying.  They just gave very brief moments of joy when their families got together on Sunday.  Six months are a long time for anyone, especially for someone who had grown so used to a pleasant life.

In that six month, something changed in Edward.  A lot of the change came because of his dad’s recent promotion.  This caused a big bump in Edward’s allowance.  He ran for student body President and surprisingly the school got behind him, electing him and giving him power.  This didn’t stop the bully, but the bully grew concerned.  Edward’s confidence was growing every day.

Finally, he made a deal with the bully.  He offered him money and tried to get him to back off.  Edward just wanted to feel whole again.  The bully would tell him he’d consider it.  The bully thought, “Well, maybe I can just get that same amount of money from someone else and still push Edward around.”

See, this bully was condescending.  He pushed more kids around than just Edward, although Edward was the only one he didn’t call a friend.  These other kids he considered his friends, it’s hard to say if they felt the same in return. The bully’s name was Joel.

Joel made Edward swear to silence while he worked to find another deal.  Joel worked closely with his friend Maurice.  Maurice was making a power play.  He matched the money Edward had put forward to try to climb the social structure of the fourth grade.  Maurice felt like he was a bit lost and he thought he could regain his sense of self by gaining more power.  No one can blame Maurice for trying.  No one deserves to feel empty.  Maurice did step over the line.  He told classmates “Edward isn’t a loyal friend, I am.”  He had a fetish for whales and was making promises that he couldn’t keep, without a minor miracle.  Edward couldn’t offer a rebuttal in fear of screwing things up with Joel.  He was sworn to silence.

Word eventually leaked out that Joel was going to side with Maurice.  Edward was still going to be the victim.

Edward did what he had to do.  He offered the bully more money.  What other choice did he have?  There wasn’t going to be a friend that all of a sudden moved to his neighborhood in two months to make him feel better.  Edward offered a lot of money.  Maurice couldn’t match that offer.

Joel still will probably choose Maurice.  Edward is just trying to show him that he means business.

Joel doesn’t really care about his other friends all that much.  Sure, they help him out a lot but he’s got to keep his reputation up as a tough guy.  Joel needs Edward.  He needs someone to pick on.  Joel will move away in a few years.  Until that day, he’s the bully no matter how much money Edward offers.

– Andrew

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by | May 13, 2013 · 10:12 pm

The Prospect Logjam

The Seattle Mariners are in the midst of a current hot streak.  They have won 10 of 15 and have moved to a ‘not-so embarrassing’ 18-20 record.  Our hometown nine are just one game out of second place in a mediocre division.  No, they probably won’t challenge for a title but they aren’t nearly as bad as they were three weeks ago.  Yet, when you bring them up with a fan who has some knowledge about the team, the conversation usually turns to the young players and the prospects down on the farm.  This isn’t just because Raul Ibanez isn’t someone to talk about.  It’s because these younger players (the core, if you will) are worth talking about.  Jack Z has made some questionable moves but he has turned the farm system from the worst in baseball (when he inherited it) to one of the best in baseball.

Now, people are worried about where this core will play.  There are three shortstops in the Mariners’ farm system whom most Mariner fans would rather have with the team than Robert Andino.  Robert Andino is bad at baseball.  All of these players have questions about their defense.  Nick Franklin doesn’t have range.  Carlos Triunfel lacks consistency.  Brad Miller made more errors last season than I did in my first two years of little league (he has since improved).  All of these guys could probably play second pretty effectively but you already have an above-average glove there in Dustin Ackley.  Ackley isn’t hitting very well right now but the organization will not, and should not give up on him.  I haven’t even mentioned Stefen Romero, who is a right-handed slugger who can cover second, third, or left field.  Franklin and Triunfel could probably play some third but most of their experience is at second and short.  Plus, you have Kyle Seager there who is good with the glove and is the best hitter on the Mariners.  Oh, did I mention Seager can play second?  Wait, what about Mike Zunino?  The catcher of the future who is in triple-A learning how to hit a breaking ball.  While he’s not knocking on the door as loudly as Franklin, Zunino will be getting time in the majors next season, if not before.  Wait!  Where does that leave Jesus Montero, the bat-first catcher who hasn’t played as well as we’d all like but is still only 22 and has enough raw strength to entrance the casual baseball watcher.  Confused yet?  Here, this is an easier way to look at it..

Second Base:
Dustin Ackley (In the majors, also played outfield and first in college)
Nick Franklin (AAA, can also play shortstop)
Carlos Triunfel (AAA, can also play shortstop)
Kyle Seager (In the majors, everyday starter at third)
Stefen Romero (AAA, can also play third and LF

Shortstop:
(Currently manned by Robert Andino and Brendan Ryan in the majors.  Ryan may stick around for a while but if Andino doesn’t hit he could be gone by the end of this coming road-trip)
Nick Franklin (AAA)
Carlos Triunfel (AAA)
Brad Miller (AA, may be able to play second or third.  Mostly groomed as a shortstop though)

Third:
Kyle Seager (Majors)
Stefen Romero (AAA)

Catcher:
(Currently manned by Jesus Montero and, for some reason, Kelly Shoppach in a 50/50 split of playing time)
Jesus Montero (Majors, can also play SS… Just kidding)
Mike Zunino (AAA)
John Hicks (AA, although he’s still a ways off)

In case you weren’t doing the math, that’s 9 players for 4 positions (although Hicks is a bit of a stretch).  All of these players, besides Hicks, will probably see the majors by the end of next year.  Everyone but Miller will probably see it long before then.  Even a beaver wouldn’t know what to do with this many logs.

I have two disclaimers, then a solution.

First disclaimer:  Carlos Triunfel probably isn’t a Major League starter.  He could develop into one but at this point I don’t see him more than a good utility guy.  I have no doubt that if the Mariners called him up tomorrow he’d be more effective than Andino.  In fact, he’d be the first person I’d call up out of all the young guys to fill that exact role, but I don’t think the answer is to start him at shortstop.  Give him a few games a week at short.  Once in a while at second, but I don’t think he will be an everyday starter in the long run (although at this point, anyone would hit better than the Mariners shortstop tandem).

Second disclaimer:  Not all of these guys will work out.  If there is anything the past few years should have taught you, as a Mariner fan, it’s that prospects aren’t always going to work out.  Yes, Nick Franklin has an OPS over 1.000 in Tacoma right now.  I’m as excited about that as anyone but that doesn’t mean he’s going to be an all-star. Prospects always flop.  The Mariners will be doing well if 6 of these guys work out as average or above-average major league players.  All nine will not work out.  I repeat, all nine will not work out.

The solution:  Baseball works on many old precedents that were once set, but don’t need to be there.  One of those precedents is that a player needs a set position.  Sure, every now and then you’ll get a Ben Zobrist who can play everywhere and do it well but that’s not common through the course of baseball history.  Utility guys are usually made to be utility guys because they can’t hit, not because they are good at defense.  But, Jack Z has put together a farm system full of Zobrist’s (some may be better hitters, some might be worse).  There are a group full of players who will soon be Mariners that have positional flexibility, the organization needs to take advantage of this instead of letting it hinder them.

Maybe Stefen Romero plays left field and spells Ackley and Seager at second and third from time to time.  Maybe Franklin plays short but also covers second while Ackley plays a day in left when the M’s want to get more lefties in the lineup.

The notion exists that players are more comfortable with a set position.  I get that and if that’s actually true then leave them there.  If Ackley says that he would be best sticking at second then leave him there, no questions asked.  But, wouldn’t it make sense that switching positions every few days would keep a young guy more focused? Maybe I’m taking crazy pills but that idea doesn’t seem far off to me.  The Mariners have Franklin, Triunfel, and Romero in AAA who are used to switching positions quite often.  Take advantage of it.

Sure, it’s a little frustrating that all of the Mariners good hitting prospects tend to play the same position.  We could really use a guy in center, right or first.  But, organizational depth isn’t a problem, it’s how you make a good team.  The Mariners will soon have a chance to use a group of really good prospects.  I say that they make this happen however they can.

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by | May 1, 2013 · 12:07 pm

Dustin, He’s So Hot Right Now

The 2013 Mariners are annoyingly familiar.  They’re losing, for one, 12-17 at the moment.  The offense is giving itself chances to score runs, but it spits on those chances before grounding them weakly to shortstop.  Felix and Iwakuma are among the top five or so starters in the league right now, but the other three rotation spots have been inconsistent at best and horrible at worst.  The bullpen has bright spots, but it’s dealing with some injuries and the replacements have been spotty.  Injuries have also decimated the outfield. Michael Saunders just returned to the field after being one of the team’s best hitters early, and Michael Morse has apparently recovered from or at least learned to compensate for his broken finger, but Franklin Gutierrez is doing exactly what’s expected of him, with weird leg injuries halting then stopping his season.

Much of the lamenting has centered around the continued failure of the team’s supposed future, namely Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak and Jesus Montero.  I’m not going to argue for Smoak and Montero, at least not right now, but Ackley’s demise might be greatly misstated.  Or at least, his resurgence has been somewhat unnoticed.

Right now, Ackley is sitting on a .253/.284/.286 line. That’s not good, although the batting average is about 30 points higher than last year. His OPS+, which merely compares his OPS (.570) to league average, is 65.  League average is 100, so he’s been 35% worse than average.  

Now, time for fun with numbers and random cutoff points!  Ackley started this season as cold as Antarctica.  After seven games, he had two hits and two walks.  If we take out those seven games, he’s batting .310.  The OPS is still only .681, which isn’t good, but I’ll talk more about that below. If we look at roughly the last two weeks, starting April 17th, the line jumps to .383/.396/.447.  Those numbers over a full season would be phenomenal and beyond any hopes we could have.

Picking starting and ending points like I just did is risky analysis, so I make no guarantees on anything here.  It’s certainly possible Ackley is just on a hot streak and he will soon plummet Smoak-style.  It’s also possible the first week or two was a terrible cold streak and the .310 BA is more realistic.  Arbitrary date selection isn’t great, but it doesn’t automatically make a more hopeful interpretation illegitimate.

More interesting is the disparity in the stats.  The batting average is great, but his on-base and slugging percentages still lag.  Once the benchmark of offensive stats, batting average has fallen out of favor of late.  OBP and slugging are more comprehensive, and more advanced stats go even further.  Right now, everything Ackley is doing is batting average driven, and within that, it’s all singles-driven.  He has three walks and three doubles, and 23 singles.

The scouting report on Ackley has always been he’s an elite contact hitter with a great eye and solid gap power.  After fixing some mechanical issues dating back to last season, the contact skills seem to be on the rebound.  He’s hitting the ball hard to all fields again and rolling over on pitches less.  His plate discipline is hard to wade through.  His swing rates are roughly the same as ever, although he’s swinging at pitches outside of the zone a bit more.  That might be a good thing, as part of Ackley’s problem has been a stubborness in not swinging at borderline pitches.  It hasn’t worked out well, so a slightly more aggressive approach might help.  He’s making a little better contact in all facets this year, so something’s working.

The biggest concern with Ackley is the lack of both walks and power.  I would bet the two are related.  There’s no reason for pitchers to go outside the zone when they still have last year’s scouting report and he’s only hitting singles thus far.  Add in that Ackley makes contact with almost everything, and pitchers are going to have to work hard to walk him.  That’ll change if he keeps hitting like this, but the process would be helped greatly (as would his production) if more of his singles start going for extra bases.  Pitchers are going to challenge him until he does some damage.

Dustin Ackley is on a singles streak, which is great and gives hope for the future.  But he won’t continue to hit nearly .400, and he will need to do more than hit singles to really make an impact.  Walks and at least gap power need to be a part of the package.  I’m betting both will come soon. Ackley’s slowly putting his game back together. A barrage of doubles might signal the next and most important piece.

-Matthew

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