Author Archives: Matthew

by | March 31, 2014 · 5:53 pm

Opening Day! Mariners! Get Excited!

Opening Day is here.  I was going to say it’s finally here, but it feels like it snuck up on me this year. Usually spring training turns into a slog in late March, but for whatever reason I never felt that this year.  Anyway, Opening Day, the best sports day of the year, is here.

The Mariners and King Felix face the Angels tonight.  Jered Weaver’s on the mound for the dumb Angels.  If you’re in Anaheim and can find tickets near third base, Josh Hamilton will keep you cool with his many swings and misses.  Albert Pujols might even come sit with you after he reinjures his foot.  Mike Trout will do stuff with his monstrous neck. The Angels are no Oakland Athletics, but they’re still dumb.

It feels like more casual Mariner fans really want to root for the team, but they just can’t quite bring themselves to do it.  I don’t blame them, given the ineptitude the team has shown over the last decade plus. Still, if we all can find it in our hearts to let go of the dismal memories, we just might find a little magic this year. Henceforth, nothing but positive thoughts!  The Mariners could be good!  Just start with that.  You don’t have to plan on the playoffs yet.  There’s always next year for crazy talk like that.  Just look for some little things.  This might be the year a young player finally does something right.  Maybe Felix won’t lose any 1-0 games.  Just start small and enjoy what you find, and soon enough, we will all believe big together. Go Mariners.

If that’s not working for you, here are a few real reasons to be excited for this season:

Robinson Cano is really good.  He’s the closest thing we’ve had to Edgar since we had Edgar, plus he plays a mean second base.  The only position player close to him in talent Seattle has had recently is Ichiro, and as much as I love Ichiro, Cano’s power is a better fit for this young group than Ichiro’s speed and contact could ever be.  Don’t be surprised if he makes a run at the MVP, but even on an average year, he’s the best second baseman in baseball and one of its best hitters.

The (healthy) rotation is tremendously talented. Once Hisashi Iwakuma and Taijuan Walker return to the field, this rotation will have as much potential as nearly any in the league. The problem is, outside of Felix and Kuma, it may take a season or two for guys to begin to reach that potential.  I expect many bright flashes from Walker, Paxton and Erasmo Ramirez (or whoever fills that last spot), but we could really be in for special things in 2015. This rotation has four guys with legitimate ace-level stuff, and a slew of kids waiting to fill in behind them. Plus, the 2013 rotation set the bar low, and even an inconsistent season for the kids could bring significant improvement.

Brad Miller is starting to look like a folk hero who will become an all-star.  Miller was not a first round pick, but since he was drafted, he’s done nothing but hit and improve at shortstop. Where many thought he’d have to move off the position, he’s now a solid defender. And he still hits. How good he’ll be remains to be seen, but don’t be surprised if he holds down short for the next decade with a few all-star games thrown in.  Add in his “crazy legs” running and team captain attitude, and he should be a fan favorite soon.

This is the year some young guys should break out. Ackley looks ready to shine. People who know seem excited about Smoak. Saunders had jumped a level before his injury last year. That’s not even counting the really young guys. What if Mike Zunino hits even decently? He’ll be the best Mariners catcher in 20 years, that’s what! There’s big upside with most of the roster. They won’t all reach it, but some should. And if they don’t, at least for the Ackley, Smoak, Saunders group, it’ll be time to move on. That means seeing a new crop of young guys come up. Who wants to see Jabari Blash get a chance to knock some dingers? Me, me! I do!

Lloyd McClendon’s a man. He’s funny, interesting and no-nonsense, without seeming over the top. Eric Wedge acted no-nonsense, but I think there was plenty of nonsense going on there. The season will show whether the switch will make any difference, but it’s certainly improved the manager interviews (and pictures. No more Wedge eyes!).

It feels like there’s one more big move coming. The Mariners are still sitting on salary and big trade chips. Nick Franklin is an excellent trade piece, and there’s plenty of young talent in the majors and minors.  Maybe they move some guys to finally get an outfielder or another piece.  Maybe they make a huge move at the trading deadline or next offseason for David Price or Cliff Lee or Giancarlo Stanton. There’s never any guarantee with trades, but the Mariners will be able to make offers very few teams can top for nearly anyone who hits the market.

 

Hopefully, some of those things get you pumped up.  If not, just stop worrying about the M’s and go to Safeco, or your local minor league or high school stadium, and watch some baseball.  There’s nothing better than sitting on a nice day watching some ball.  Get a hot dog or some peanuts or sunflower seeds. Play catch with your nephew.  Have a home run derby.  If the M’s season goes bad, as it usually does, find your baseball enjoyment elsewhere. Baseball’s here, and apparently so is spring. And hope springs eternal, as they say.  So don’t let the man get you down. Believe big.

Go Mariners!

-Matthew

 

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by | March 25, 2014 · 9:41 pm

Breaking Down the 2014 Mariners

Opening day is suddenly right around the corner, and the Mariners’ roster is close to set.  There are a few undetermined spots, but some moves today went a long way to clearing up the options.

The area getting the most attention this week is the rotation, which will start at decidedly less than full strength.  Hisashi Iwakuma and Taijaun Walker will both start the season on the disabled list, although the injuries don’t appear serious.  At this point, they are working to build arm strength after missing spring training.  Both should be back by May, if not sooner.

Until then, the team’s scrambling a bit to find viable replacements. Coming into spring, most assumed veteran Scott Baker would grab a spot. He didn’t ever seem to find his command after missing time for injury and asked for his release rather than start the season in Tacoma. Erasmo Ramirez seems to have solidified a spot, leaving Randy Wolf, Roenis Elias and Blake Beavan as the front runners for the final two spots. Apparently, Wolf would have had a spot, but he balked at signing a clause that would allow the team to send him to the minors later on, and he was also released. (Andrew has more on that below.) The circumstances of the release have caused some consternation amongst fans, but it doesn’t seem like a big deal to me.  Wolf isn’t anything special, and if the Mariners thought he is, they would have agreed to forgo the clause and keep him. His main use is as rotation depth, and he can’t fill that role later in the season if he won’t go to Tacoma.

So, it appears Elias will make the surprise jump from Double-A, at least for a month or so. Beavan, or maybe Noesi or an unsigned veteran, will take a few starts until Walker returns.  It’s not ideal, but as long as Walker and Iwakuma return as expected, the situation’s not disastrous. There are a couple of other questions on the roster. Outfield seems settled, although it’s unclear exactly who will be the regular starters. The only surprise might be if Nick Franklin can squeeze himself onto the roster as a back-up infielder, which could necessitate a DL move or one less outfielder.  The back of the bullpen is also a mess, one I’m not even going to try to figure out right now.

Anyway, my main purpose in writing this post was not to recap roster news, but rather to break down the roster itself to see what this year’s team might be.  It’s still a squad with a lot to prove, but some additions, both young and veteran, have brought greater upside. A lot will have to go right for this team to contend, which means they probably won’t, but it’s possible, for the first time in a while. I’m going to group the roster into some categories that seem fairly apparent to me.

Sure Things

With the constant caveat that no one’s a sure thing in sports, given injuries and general unpredictability, the M’s have a few guys who should not cause any worry. Felix Hernandez and Robinson Cano are in the arguments for the best pitcher and player in baseball. We’re in for a treat watching Cano. Seattle hasn’t seen as dynamic and talented a player as him since Ichiro’s best years, and he brings power that should make him the line-up stabilizer Seattle’s lacked since Edgar retired. Seager’s not on their level, but he’s very good, steady and still capable of improvement. Iwakuma will miss a month and won’t likely have as good a year as he did in 2013, but he’s still one of the better pitchers in the league and a solid complement to Felix. Fernando Rodney should be a welcome addition at the back of the ‘pen, despite some struggles this spring.

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by | March 14, 2014 · 7:16 pm

Remembering Steve Smith Getting Smashed

NFL free agency is in full turmoil. In its first 24 hours, over $1 billion in contracts were handed out, with plenty more to come in the couple of days after that. The strange and often entertaining aspect of NFL free agency, as opposed to other leagues, is teams drop players while signing others, keeping the market engaging even after the initial top names are gone.  The salary cap and non-guaranteed contracts are often confusing and frustrating for fans, but they sure add excitement to this time of year.

One big money veteran who felt victim to the salary cap is wide receiver Steve Smith.  The cap room-starved Carolina Panthers asked the long time face of their franchise and one of the most exciting players in the league to renegotiate his contract. He didn’t appreciate the request and instead asked to be released.  He just signed a new deal with Baltimore.

I don’t really care about Steve Smith, but seeing his name brought back one of my favorite Seahawk memories, from their 2005 Super Bowl run. That team was quite good, but for whatever reason, I never felt completely confident in them.  I remember them being a really good all-around team, without being dominant anywhere except for the Walter Jones-Steve Hutchinson duo.  I could be remembering wrong.  I’m sure a large part of the concern was just wondering if it were even possible for a Seattle team to make a championship game.  Whatever the case, I wasn’t sure what to expect going into the conference championship game.

The opponent in that game? Steve Smith and his Carolina Panthers.  Smith was in his prime and one of the best offensive players in the league.  He brought tremendous danger with each touch of the football.  In the regular season, he’d gone for over 100 catches and more than 1,500 receiving yards and was coming off a huge game.  All I remember hearing in the week before the game was about the bubble screens to Steve Smith, and how he was nearly impossible to tackle once he had the ball and a block in front of him.

I don’t really remember the specifics of the game.  I couldn’t come close to giving a play-by-play, but I remember one play that summed up the game.  It was early in the game, probably the Panthers’ first offensive series, I’m guessing.  Jake Delhomme dropped back to pass, and it was clear immediately he was throwing the vaunted screen to Steve Smith on the left sideline. I held my breath. Smith was a truly dangerous guy with the football. The term gets overused, but some players are capable of scoring every time they touched the ball. Smith was exactly that.

Delhomme’s quick pass went left, nearly parallel to the line of scrimmage. Smith was waiting, but he never had a chance. Any attempted blocks failed utterly, and a full speed Seahawk defender reached Smith just as the ball did.  Smith got blown up and the ball bounced to the ground.  In that instant, I knew the Seahawks were going to the Super Bowl. The Panthers didn’t have a lot on offense besides Smith, and in that one play, the Seahawks showed they had the game plan, athleticism and execution to stop him.  It was much like Kam Chancellor’s early leveling of Julius Thomas in the Super Bowl.  The tone was set, and the rout was on.

Smith would eventually score the Panthers’ only points of the game on a punt return for a touchdown. The Seahawks won 34-7, in a game I don’t remember even being that close.  The Super Bowl didn’t go well, of course, but the run to get there was great. It’s funny the way one play sticks in the mind. Steve Smith has been one of the best receivers in the NFL throughout his career, but I’ll always remember him on his back beneath a Seahawk, the ball lying a few feet away, sending us to the Super Bowl.

-Matthew

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by | February 11, 2014 · 9:16 pm

Who are these Dawgs? Offense

Andrew did a nice job recapping the defenders in the Huskies 2014 recruiting yesterday.  I’ll be honest: he got the more interesting of the two groups.  Between Budda, Kaleb McGary and all those defensive backs, there’s a lot of talent and potential on the defensive side of the class.

The offense has plenty of intrigue as well, though.  It’s short on elite recruits, but there are plenty of guys who should contribute and could really blossom.  Under-the-radar recruits are and will be a theme of Petersen’s recruiting.  That’s true for everywhere outside of USC and Alabama, but Petersen provides more confidence these sleepers will turn into contributors, given his track record at Boise State.  We’ll have to wait and see if he has the same success at UW, but this coaching staff turned a lot of lightly regarded recruits into very good players at BSU.

I’ll keep the same format as Andrew, with a quick blurb and the likelihood they’ll play as true freshman.  Barring massive injuries, I expect fewer offensive players to play early.  There just aren’t many major impact guys, and the offensive depth is as good as it’s been in years.  Let’s do this!

QB K.J. Carta-Samuels – It didn’t appear Sarkisian was planning to take a QB in this class, but Petersen wasted no time finding one. His first target, Jaylen Greene, was committed to UW for less than a week before Sarkisian stole him away to USC. It ended up working to UW’s advantage when KJCS became available after Vanderbilt, to whom he had committed long ago, underwent a coaching change of it’s own.  QBs usually commit early, with most of the top guys committed before they ever start their senior seasons.  Getting a four-star, extremely talented guy like KJCS this late was huge and lucky.

Carta-Samuels is a big guy with a big arm. He’s a bit of a project, as his high school didn’t run an advanced offensive system, but he should have plenty of time to improve before he might be needed.  He’s the fourth 4* QB on the roster, and while competition will be tight over the next few years, he could easily be the starter down the road.  Should Cyler Miles find himself suspended or off the team after his recent legal troubles, or if someone else transfers, this signing could end up being huge in 2015 or ’16.  Chance he plays as a true freshman: 2% (barring injury, there’s nearly no chance he plays)

RB Jomon Dotson – Running back might be the place where the coaching change hurt the most.  Sark was in on a couple of the top guys in the country in Joe Mixon and Demario Richard, but Pete was left scrambling a bit.  Dotson isn’t a bad pick-up, but he’s not likely to challenge for time right away.  He’s listed as 6′ 165 lb., so he’ll obviously need to bulk up significantly if that weight is accurate.  What he does bring is true breakaway speed, a dimension the current Husky backs lack.  Even with Sankey’s early departure, the Dawgs have a lot of backs, so don’t expect to see Dotson for a year or two, unless they want his speed on special teams. Chance he plays as a true freshman: 20%

WR Dante Pettis – Pettis might be the most likely to surprise right away.  He’s the cousin of former BSU star Austin, and a lot of people consider him one of the more underrated recruits in the west.  He’s not huge at 6′, but he’s big enough to play outside and is an excellent all-around athlete.  He could play defense if needed, but there’re thin numbers at receiver too, especially if Stringfellow finds himself off the team.  Pettis could fill a roll similar to what Kevin Smith had last year, and he could do it quickly. Chance he plays as a true freshman: 70%

WR/TE Brayden Lenius – Lenius is one of those guys who gives reason to think he could become a star, but given the distance he must go to get there, it’s more likely he won’t.  In his case, the positives start with the fact that he’s 6′ 5″.  Add in good hands and solid speed, and his limited football experience, and the hope is that he can become a major threat on the outside, or at TE should he bulk up significantly.  I wouldn’t bet on it, because Pac-12 football is hard, but he’s worth watching for, and if everything comes together, he could become one of the better receivers in the conference.  Chance he plays as a true freshman: 35%

TE Drew Sample – Sample is a local guy, from Newport High, who had been committed to BSU but flipped almost immediately upon receiving an offer from Petersen at UW.  He’s a fairly traditional tight end, known more for his blocking than receiving, but he has good size and solid athleticism.  I don’t know how the new offense will use the TE, so it’s hard to say a ton more.  Sample does fill a bit of a hole as a blocking-oriented TE, so it’s possible he could see the field early, but more likely he will redshirt to gain some muscle. Chance he plays as a true freshman: 40%

OT Matt James – As long as McGary stays on defense, James appears to be the gem of this offensive line class.  He has good size, and the athleticism and footwork to potentially stay at tackle, where the Dawgs will need bodies soon.  James, from Coeur d’Alene, was one of three UW commits Sark had from Idaho. Strangely, once UW hired a coach from Idaho, that number dropped to one, with Sark taking one to USC and the other eventually switching to BSU.  In my opinion, the Huskies kept the right one in James, given their needs and James’ upside. People who know much more about the offensive line than I do think he could be a star. Chance he plays as a true freshman: 5%

OL John Turner – Turner isn’t highly rated (the same could be said of the next two guys, as well), but that doesn’t always mean a lot on the line.  It’s a hard position to scout and project.  Turner’s recruitment seemed to pick up late in the cycle, and Cal, among others, was on him toward signing day.  Some people seem to like him a lot.  I honestly can’t say.  Sark and Petersen both wanted him, so that’s enough for me at the moment.  He could potentially play RT or guard. Chance he plays as a true freshman: 1% (these next three will all be 1%, but they’re essentially guaranteed to redshirt.  A new staff presents enough questions that I’m not confident enough to claim any absolutes.)

OL Jesse Sosebee – I feel a little bad, but I have almost nothing to say about Jesse.  It’s nothing personal, Jesse!  If you somehow read this and want to do an interview, I’d love to hear more. He’s just a guy that didn’t get a ton of coverage, he’s not highly ranked, and the O line doesn’t lend itself to highlight reels.  Most I’ve seen think he’ll be a guard. Chance he plays as a true freshman: 1%

OL Devin Burleson – Devin’s a really big boy, at 6’7″ (or more) and at least 260 lbs. He’s another who’s new to football in the last couple of years, and he’s been more of a basketball player before this year.  That has some excited, as the basketball footwork is a good sign for an offensive lineman.  He’s like Lenius as a bit of a physical freak with a long way to go to be a star.  As I said before, usually these kind of guys never quite hit their potential, but sometimes they do.  Burleson is certainly worth taking a shot on, and I personally won’t be at all surprised if he’s starting at tackle in a few years. Chance he plays as a true freshman: 1%

K/P/Boss Tristan Vizcaino – Vizcaino seems to be capable of doing pretty much anything related to kicking the football. He has a shot to be Travis Coons 2.0, as he could take over at punter, kicker or kick-offs, or some combination thereof.  He even spurned the Cougars to be a Dawg.  Way to go!  The UW specialist spots are really up for grabs, post-Coons.  K Cameron Van Winkle just underwent back surgery, and there’s a chance he might not make it back.  P Korey Durkee struggled for a few games as a true freshman in 2012, and hasn’t seen the field since.  Hopefully, they return to health/kicking proficiency, but Vizcaino could be a huge signing, and a busy man come fall. Chance he plays as a true freshman: 95%

So there it is. Recruiting for 2015 is already rolling along, by the way, but we’ll wait a while before we get into that.  As always, leave any thoughts or comments below.  We’d love to hear from you. Go Dawgs!

-Matthew

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by | January 28, 2014 · 10:28 pm

UW Recruiting Update

Signing day for college football is a week away, so it’s time for  an update on the 2014UW recruiting class. Normally, we write quite a bit about recruiting, but it’s been hard to get a handle on the class this year, mostly due to the turmoil created by the coaching change.

No area is impacted more immediately and significantly by a coaching change than recruiting.  Despite what they say, most players commit in large part to the coaching staff, so a change in coaches means lots of changes in the recruiting class.  The Huskies only had seven commits before the change, and only two of them still remain committed to the Huskies, with one just decommitting tonight and another still undecided.  Major changes like this are the norm in these transition years and are just one of the reasons these classes tend to be lackluster.

I don’t know if lackluster is an accurate description for this Husky class, however.  It’s certainly not spectacular, but after a slow start, Petersen and company reeled in over a dozen recruits this month.  They’re a solid bunch that should fill holes in the depth and provide some solid starters down the road.  There are few if any obvious stars, but those are the hardest ones to get any time. It’s even harder in this case, since the staff is largely recruiting players they were after at BSU, and BSU just didn’t have the wherewithal to land many guys who are clearly elite.  Still, this is a good group that looks much better than the last few coaching change classes.  Put simply, it’s a better class than I expected, but probably not as good as the staff will need in the future to win the Pac-12.

Current Commitments

After an unfortunate decommit from TE Chase Blakley tonight (to BSU, strangely enough), the class currently sits at 16.  It’s unclear how many the coaches will take, but there’s scholarship room for 22 right now, and they might take a full 25, expecting more transfers before the fall.  As I said, the class looks solid but not incredible.  It’s heavy on defensive backs, the one roster group clearly short on numbers, and the rest of the positions are distributed pretty evenly.

The highest rated player is QB K.J. Carta-Samuels, who the Huskies landed after he was the victim of a coaching change himself. A longtime commit to Vanderbilt, he opened up his recruitment when James Franklin left for Penn State, and the Huskies were the lucky recipients.  He’s another big, athletic QB with a good arm, and gives UW an impressive stable of young QBs and some insurance should one decide to transfer.

After KJCS, it’s hard to pick another standout right now. Sydney Jones, who committed last night, is drawing a lot of excitement as a big athlete who could play CB, safety or even WR. Offensive tackle Matt James is one of the few Sarkisian holdovers and projects to be a solid starter at a thin position. A trio of safeties, Darren Gardenhire, Jojo MacIntosh and Lavon Washington, all look good and could compete for immediate playing time, although it’s possible one or more might show up at safety instead.  There are a number of other notable current commits, but we’ll talk about them when they actually sign.

Who’s Left?

At the top of the board are two Washington state standouts: Budda Baker and Kaleb McGary. Budda, a Bellevue High safety who could also play some offense, already endeared himself to Husky fans by dropping his Oregon commitment, claiming he couldn’t imagine living in Eugene for four years.  He’s now choosing between UW and UCLA, and no one really has any clue what he’s going to decide.  He’s a major impact player who could start immediately for the Huskies.

McGary, from Fife, is a huge athlete at 6′ 8″ 280 lbs who will likely play DE, or possibly OT or TE.  He’s a bit of a project, albeit a highly rated one who looks like he could grow into a star.  He’s looking at Oregon State and Wisconsin along with UW. While he grew up a Husky, he’s said he’s more of a country guy and might choose a smaller town over Seattle.

They’re in on a number of other guys as well.  DE Jaylen Johnson is a big DE who was committed to BSU with Petersen.  Most expect him to switch to UW soon, although these things are never a guarantee.  RB/LB Kalen Ballage is an ASU commit who visited last weekend.  He’s an incredible athlete and would be a major steal.  CB Naijiel Hale, son of the late rapper Nate Dogg, is visiting this weekend, although it seems a longshot he’ll become a Husky at this point.  S/LB Drew Lewis, another local boy, was a longtime Husky commit, but is waiting to see if USC will make a late offer before he decides.

There aren’t any more glaring holes to be filled on the roster, so I imagine the staff will look to fill the rest of the class with the best players they can get.  Another WR would be nice, and maybe a linebacker and D tackle.  The fun part of a new coaching staff is that new names pop up every day.  Don’t be surprised if something major happens in the next week.

Signing day is on Wednesday February 5th, and we’ll be back then, if not before.  If you’re looking for more updates, leave a question in the comments, or follow http://www.uwdawgpound.com and dawgman.com.

Go Huskies!

-Matthew

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by | January 5, 2014 · 1:31 pm

The Mariners Rebuilding is Getting Easier (Maybe)

The Mariners have spent more money this offseason than at any time in their history, and it’s not even close.  Robinson Cano’s $240 million is more money than the team had spent in the last 8 offseasons combined.  It doesn’t appear the team is done with the spending, either. There are rumblings they will heavily pursue Japanese starter Masahiro Tanaka, who will command between $100-150 million.

The competition will be thick for Tanaka, but there are other options, should the Mariners decide to pursue them.  Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Garza and Ervin Santana form a solid trio of free agent starters who should require less than half the money Tanaka will likely receive.  On offense, Nelson Cruz and Kendrys Morales are still on the market, and there are a number of possible trade targets. I expect the Mariners to add another impact player, as well as some filler for the bullpen, before spring training begins next month.

The Mariners sudden spending has received some skeptical and even negative reviews.  Some of that is justified.  Cano’s contract will likely be a bit of a burden toward the end of the deal, and the team once again has a bit of a logjam at the 1B/DH slots.

I think more of the consternation comes from the idea that the Mariners don’t know what they’re doing, however.  They’ve spent so long building with youth, many see the big free agent moves as desperation, an abandonment of a plan that wasn’t working.  I don’t know if the Mariners have any clue what they’re doing, but I don’t think the sudden spending is a sign of abandoning the youth movement.  I actually think it’s the next step in making the youth successful.

If Mariner fans have learned anything over the last five to ten season, it’s that young players frequently fail. Outside of Felix Hernandez and Kyle Seager, there haven’t been many Mariner prospects who have come to Seattle and performed as hoped.  Some players have become decent contributors after a few seasons, but that only illustrates the other problem of a rebuild: prospects usually take a while to become players with which a team can win.

Those dual restraints, young players’ elongated timetables and frequent failure, are why so many teams rebuilding solely with youth never improve much.  There are just too many holes to fill, and if a player doesn’t improve into a solid starter, the team has wasted two or three seasons in the waiting.

What the Mariners hopefully did with the Cano signing and potentially another long-term deal or two, is remove some uncertainty. They now employ one of the best players in baseball at a position that was previously something of a question mark.  Add in the dependable Seager, and that’s two of the tougher positions to fill now ably manned.  If Brad Miller and Mike Zunino can solidify shortstop and catcher, respectively, the line-up is starting to look good for the future.  Maybe Michael Saunders, Justin Smoak and/or Dustin Ackley move from mediocre to league-average or better.  Suddenly the team only has a a couple of positions that are question marks. Instead of relying on seven unestablished players, they’re only relying on two, which is much easier to focus on and fix.  And while they’re being fixed, the team is still getting production from the other spots.

There’s no guarantee any or all of those players will work out, but the point is that established performers are hugely important for rebuilding teams.  It’s the difference between buying furniture for a whole house versus just one room.  Not only is the cost so much higher for the whole house, it’s also overwhelming and harder to decide what to focus on. Some rooms (or positions) will not receive the same attention or resources.  Narrowing the scope to one room (or position) is much easier to deal with.

Establishing solid starters has one other benefit.  Eventually, those solid starters will need to be upgraded, or maybe replaced as they hit free agency.  When that time hits, the team can now focus their farm system on the trade market.  It’s hard to make trades when all of the prospects are needed to fill holes.  When there’s only one hole, it can either be filled with a prospect, or if that’s not possible, prospects can be moved in trade.  Nick Franklin a good current example of these benefits.  With Cano taking his starting spot, Franklin is now a great trade piece, or he could possibly be moved to the outfield to fill a hole there.  Prospects have no inherent value. They only exist to make the big league team better, whether by their own performance or by being used in a trade for someone else.  There’s no reason the Mariner farm system should get worse as the team gets better, unless there’s a change in the scouting department.  A strong farm system is the best way keep a competitive team good. It keeps payroll down and lets the team move on from aging starters before they begin to decline with a big salary.

Even as the Mariners improve, their prospects will still fail at fairly high rates. That’s just the way it works.  What free agent signings can do is relieve the sting of those failures. The team can be more patient with prospects, who won’t feel the pressure to be immediately successful and carry the team.  There’s no guarantee the Mariners will be successful with these moves, but anyone saying they don’t make the team immediately better or have benefits in a youth movement has too narrow a view of the situation.  Plus, Mariner fans now get to watch Robinson Cano, and no one should complain about that.

-Matthew

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by | December 11, 2013 · 2:11 pm

New Mariners! Lots of Them!

The Mariners have become the center of the baseball news universe.  Some of the news is bad (see Andrew’s post below), but most of it is quite good.  This is going to be a fairly quick recap of the M’s moves so far, with a look at what else they might have in store.  I would expect more moves within the next week, so I’ll have a more comprehensive look at the 2014 Mariners once the dust settles.

Additions

As I write this, there are three new Mariners.  The big one is 2B Robinson Cano.  He reportedly agreed to a 10 year $240 million deal last week, and will likely be announced in Seattle on Friday or so.  A week later, I am still in a bit of shock that Cano is a Mariner.  He is the best second baseman in baseball, and has been the centerpiece of the Yankees’ offense for the last five years plus.  That he will likely play out the remainder of his career in Seattle is a testament to money, both as the deciding factor for most player and the amount of it the Mariners have to spend if they’re so inclined.

Cano supplants Nick Franklin and/or Dustin Ackley (trade chips, but not sure to be moved).  As much as one might like those two guys, Cano is a massive, massive upgrade.  He’s the first major line-up threat Seattle has had in years.  His offensive game is reminiscent of Edgar’s, and he plays Gold Glove caliber defense.  It’s likely the last 3-4 years of the contract will be a drawback, but I’m not especially worried.  The immediate benefits are huge, and it’s likely baseball’s changing economics will render the dollar amounts less shocking by 2020 or so.  This is a stunning addition, unlike anything the Mariners have ever done.

Today, two separate deals brought DH/1B/maybe outfielders.  The first was a free agent deal for former Brewer Corey Hart.   Continue reading →

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by | November 27, 2013 · 11:27 pm

Apple Cup Predictions

It’s easy to get wrapped up in the frustrations of sports.  Seattle teams lose much more than they win, and it can get frustrating.  Some level of aggravation is normal, as it would be with any interest when it goes poorly.  It can be easy to let it get out of hand and take over one’s life, though, and that seems a shame.

Sometimes we need to step back and remember that sports themselves are great.  For every frustration, there’s the simple fact that sports are fun and exciting and entertaining. Is there anything better than sitting at Husky Stadium or Century Link or Safeco on a clear day?  Seattle is blessed with professional and major college teams, and whether they’re good or not, not everywhere is so lucky.

I hope the Huskies win Friday, and I hope the Seahawks make the Super Bowl this year.  I really hope the Mariners are good again in my lifetime.  Even if they’re not, I’m thankful I get to go to Husky games with my dad and brother and sister.  I’m thankful for the countless memories and hours of enjoyment sports have brought me.  Happy Thanksgiving everyone, and thanks for reading.

Joe

The Apple Cup is a rivalry game. Rivalry games, as they say, you can throw the records out the window, they don’t matter.  I am usually lukewarm about that assertion, because usually records do matter, and do reflect reality.  Your record is who you are. In the case of this year Apple Cup, I agree, records don’t matter. In the sense that WSU isn’t as good as theirs indicates, and UW is better than theirs indicates.

I have had an ongoing discussion with the other good guys regarding how opposite these two schools conference schedules have been. In a nutshell, WSU has had all their tougher opponents at home, UW, conversely, on the road (the exception being Oregon for both schools).  WSU has had the fortunate circumstances of not playing UCLA, getting Lane Kiffin’s USC team early, and catching a sleeping Arizona a week before senior day.  UW played Stanford, ASU and UCLA all on the road.  The point of all this is to say that I believe WSU’s 6-5 record is a bit of a mirage, aided by favorable conference scheduling and timing.  Conversely I believe UW’s 7-4 record is misleading as well.  I maintain if UW had WSU’s conf schedule, the Huskies would probably be at 9 wins already. They are that good of a football team.  And I think it will show Friday.

WSU will throw exclusively and be buoyed by a stingy defense, but in the end the Dawgs have two huge factors in their favor: Husky Stadium and revenge.  In sports, home field and a desire to get back at a rival almost always leads to victory.  It will Friday.  Watch for UW to establish a running game early no matter what, and watch for one of UW’s WRs to have a 100+ yd game (Stringfellow). WSU’s inability to run will lead to multiple Halliday interceptions that will kill WSU drives.  Late 3rd qtr the Dawgs will start to break WSU’s will with the run game.  Cougs go back home empty handed.

UW 38 – WSU 19

Matthew

Andrew’s written before about how my predictions always seem to go wrong.  I’ve done pretty well picking games this year, but if I make a proclamation in game, the opposite generally happens.  So, I’m a little hesitant to say this, but I have a really hard time seeing the Huskies losing this game.  The Cougars are better than last year, but I don’t think they’re very good.  I think UW, when focused and clicking, is a pretty dominating team.  Plus, they’re playing at home, which is generally all the difference they need against middling opponents.

I’m curious to see whether last week’s blowout win will function as the proverbial light bulb going on for this team.  Sometimes guys just need to see what can happen when they come out and play exactly as hard and as smart as they can.  Hopefully the dominating results  from that effort will give them confidence and motivate them to prepare and play like they did last week in the games and seasons to come.

As for the Apple Cup, I could see a close game, but I could also see the Huskies coming out hot again, reeling off a couple of scores and cruising to a big win.  Connor Halliday might be the difference between a close game and a blowout.  He can be very good at quarterback, and then he can be absolutely horrible at the flip of a switch.  The Huskies need to get some pressure early, hit a couple of passes over the top, and let Bishop carve up the Cougar defense.  I don’t think Black Friday will hold any good deals for WSU.

UW 45 – WSU 27

Andrew

After the beatdown the Huskies gave the Beavers last Saturday night, Husky fans are truly feeling good about the team for the first time since they were 4-0.  These good feelings should continue on Friday afternoon.  WSU has improved and will no doubt be ready to play.  They have rode a beneficial schedule to bowl eligibility but they are a better team than the one that the Huskies lost to last year.  The difference this year is that the Huskies will probably show up to the 4th quarter.  This Husky team is angry and ready to prove that last year was a mirage.  If the Huskies jump ahead early this game could get ugly, but, since it’s the Apple Cup, I expect this one to stay close throughout.

UW 35 – WSU 24

Dan

A bit late to get my prediction in, but here’s my quick take.

It’s impossible to know if the Huskies will be clicking tomorrow like they did last week. If they play well, there is no doubt in my mind the Dawgs will roll. I’m biased, sure, but I really believe the Huskies are a much better team than the Cougars. But again, we can’t know which UW team will show up and if Wazzu is the better team for 60 minutes tomorrow, they can absolutely win, and have major bragging rights in what would be their 6th apple cup in the last 10. The Pac 12 has been tough to predict, and rivalry games often surprise too, so anything can happen. If I were betting, I think the Huskies will win comfortably because I don’t see Sankey and the UW offense being contained, nor do I see the Cougs’ one dimensional offense having it’s way against the home team’s D. Expect an inspired, revenge seeking performance by the mighty men who where purple and gold. Go Dawgs!

UW 41 – WSU 24

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