Category Archives: Mariners

Posts dealing with the Mariners

by | July 14, 2010 · 5:35 pm

Who’s More Interesting, Rainiers or Mariners?

As Joe already posted today, Dustin Ackley has been promoted to triple-A Tacoma.  This is a move that most people saw coming at some point.  After a very slow start, Ackley has put up numbers that are close to what the experts expected.  He will only be playing second base for the Rainiers, which is good news as they push his development forward.

I’ve never followed the Mariners farm system until the last couple years.  Sure, I knew who the most promising prospects are but I didn’t know much else.  That changed this year.  This is partially because the Mariners are so disappointing and partially because the Mariners farm system has suddenly become interesting again.  It’s become so interesting that, with this recent Ackley call-up, it’s hard for me to choose which team I’d rather go watch.

I thought I’d take a closer look at this by going through both teams position by position (Matthew’s series preview style).  I’ll pick the starter who I find more interesting.  This doesn’t mean I think they’re better, it just means that I’d rather watch them.  This may be because of the potential they have.  Here we go:

Catcher:  Mariners: Rob Johnson/Josh Bard.  Rainiers:  Adam Moore.  To tell you the truth, I don’t want to watch any of these guys.  If you’ve read anything I’ve posted on here, you should know my hate of Rob Johnson.  Josh Bard is fine but he definitely isn’t the future.  Adam Moore is the future at this position but after his terrible first half with the M’s (before getting injured) left a bad taste in my mouth.  He has put up good numbers in Tacoma and his ability to hit with power to the opposite field is enough to give him the edge here.  Plus, he can catch which is more than Rob Johnson can say.

1st Base:  Mariners:  Justin Smoak.  Rainiers:  Mike Carp/Brad Nelson.  Justin Smoak is awesome and has more potential than almost anyone in this organization.  If anyone says that Mike Carp or Brad Nelson are more interesting or exciting than Justin Smoak then you probably shouldn’t be talking to them.  Mike Carp might be average someday and Nelson might be an okay pinch-hitter in the bigs.  Justin Smoak could be a star.

The rest of the positions after the jump.  Continue reading →

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by | July 14, 2010 · 10:37 am

Dustin Ackley promoted to AAA Tacoma

Tacoma Rainiers games are a fun time anyway, but now more than ever. With Pineda and Ackely there now, the future is looking bright (I am trying to be Mr. Optimistic here!).

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by | July 13, 2010 · 2:00 pm

Felix Gets Snubbed

I’ve been sitting around today listening to pre-game coverage of the all-star game.  I keep seeing the rosters pop up on the ESPN tracker and one name is missing, it’s Felix Hernandez.  Needless to say, I’m a little biased but let me go on.  Felix was initially left off of the roster when it came out and that didn’t seem that weird.  Cliff Lee had clearly been the Mariners’ best pitcher and Felix did have a few rough spots through the first month or two.  The King said it wasn’t a big deal that he was left off the squad but his true fans know otherwise.  Felix loves the personal stuff.  Yes, he wants to see his team win more than anything but he also wants to pick up all the awards and accolades possible along the way.  After Felix was left off the team, and right before, he’s gone on a tear.  Quite similar to last years season Felix has become absolutely dominant.  He’s thrown 3 complete games in his last 4 starts and his ERA has dropped below 3.00.

Two pitchers were added to the AL team the day after Felix’s complete game against the Yankees on Saturday.  For some reason, Girardi picked two guys other than Felix.  He said it was because Felix had thrown 126 pitches the night before and wasn’t added because of that.  His quote made it seem like he was doing the Mariners some big favor by not adding him to the team.  Yes, Felix has thrown too many pitches this year and probably needs a little break here but I don’t think it’s right to leave someone off the team because he threw too many pitches.  You could at least invite him and let him soak in the experience.  He could earn the all-star incentives that are most likely in his contract.  He could get his well-deserved cheer from the crowd.  He could show that the Mariners have one of the best young pitchers in baseball.  Instead he’s left to watch it.

Is this a big deal?  No, not really.  The all-star game isn’t the most exciting thing even if “this time it matters.”  But I keep hearing how the NL has a better pitching staff with more dominating names and I can’t help but think that wouldn’t be so true if the king would have been there.

Andrew

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by | July 10, 2010 · 10:20 pm

The Last 2 Days

Yesterday I returned home from a 3 week stint working at a Young Life camp.  Without cell phone service and limited internet connections, I wasn’t able to keep up with sports the way I usually do.  But what a day yesterday was to return to the real World.  As soon as I got cell phone service I received a text message from Matthew saying that the Mariners were about to trade Cliff Lee for Jesus Montero.  I was ecstatic about this.  When I left this kind of offer was a little bit crazy to even dream about. 

Then, the deal was off.  Some people say it was Adams ankle injury that ended this deal.  I’m no expert but that’s not the case.  The deal was off because the Rangers offered Justin Smoak.  No one knows if Smoak will be better than Montero at this point.  There’s only so much scouting reports can tell us and they sure can’t predict the future.  If there is one thing that our GM excels at though it’s talent evaluation so we have to trust him at this point, in my opinion.  By now, if you’re at all interested in the Mariners you’ve heard the scouting reports.  Justin Smoak is an above average defender with a bat that should hit for a pretty good average and 25-30 home runs.  He has a good eye and is a switch hitter (although he has some pretty drastic splits thus far).  I’ve heard comparisons from John Olerud to Mark Teixeira but the one I most agree with after reading everything available is Adrian Gonzalez.

The 2 pitchers acquired should be contributors in the future.  One is in the mold of a Doug Fister type starter except with a little more velocity.  The reliever seems to be a pretty standard guy.  He has a plus fastball and slider and has amazing K/BB rates in the minors.  He could be in the bullpen by next year.  The other guy might turn out, he might not. 

I’m excited about this deal.  Cliff Lee might have given the Seattle Mariners the best 2 months of pitching they’ve ever had.  I could do a whole different post on this but, to put a long story short, he was absolutely amazing.  He might go help the Rangers win the World Series.  Which leads me to the question that many fans might be asking, “Should I still cheer for Cliff Lee even if he’s playing for a division rival?”  My answer is yes.  I mean, why not?  The Mariners are not going to come back in this division and the Rangers are an exciting team.  They have young talent that’s easy to root for.  It’s not like Cliff Lee is going to re-sign with them anyway.  As of yesterday the Rangers became the AL team that I will cheer for to make the World Series. 

Back to the trade, it is awesome for a couple of reason.  This trade will not hurt the Mariners this year because the Mariners suck this year.  This trade won’t hurt the Mariners in the future because Cliff Lee won’t be there in the future.  You know who will be with the Mariners in the future?  Justin Smoak.  I saw a commenter at Lookout Landing say we basically just made a prospect swap, dropping Phillipe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, and Juan Ramirez and picking up Justin Smoak, Blake Beaven, Josh Lueke, and Matt Lawson all the while we got to see some of the best pitching anyone has ever seen.  The prospect swap was awesome by Baseball America standards. 

Both of the big names made their debuts tonight and both were bad.  Don’t read into this.  We all know Cliff Lee is awesome and Smoak is still in his rookie season figuring things out.  This trade will definitely not be “won” or “lost” by the Mariners this year.  We won’t be able for figure that out for a few years.  I would argue that it’s almost impossible for the Mariners to lose this trade but I’ll save that.  The Rangers could lose this one easily, I think.  Although they won’t if they go on to win the World Series. 

The game tonight was awesome.  Lopez barely hit that ball out (classic Jose Lopez) but when he dropped that bat and looked towards the dugout I could feel the frustration he released with that hit.  I don’t care for Lopez as a baseball player but you have to feel for him, along with countless other Mariners, as he is having just an awful year.  It was the first game I’ve got to watch since coming home and it was so much fun to watch.  I sure do hate the Yankees. 

Well this post has rambled on long enough.  I have too much to say and not enough patience to organize those thoughts right now.  I’ll just end with this:  Good job Mariners, in a season that’s gone incredibly wrong, the last 2 days worked out about as well as they could have.

Andrew

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by | July 9, 2010 · 11:21 am

Cliff Lee Almost a Yankee

1:00 Update:  Should have waited 45 minutes on this.  Sounds like the deal might be off, which could just be negotiations or could mean another team made a really huge offer.  I guess we’ll see.

I planned to write a post about the various Cliff Lee rumors today before leaving on vacation tonight, but it looks like that won’t be necessary.  Barring the deal falling apart at what sounds like the last minute, Cliff Lee will be a Yankee by the end of the day.  He’ll be dealt or the deal will be off before he makes his start tonight, which means he’ll likely never play another game in a Mariners uniform. 

If the rumored deal is correct, the Mariners will get a haul, mostly in the form of one Jesus Montero.  He’s a catcher who will likely end up a 1B or DH, but his power bat is maybe the best in the minors.  He struggled to start the year as a 20-year-old at AAA, but has turned it around in the last few weeks.  Being 20 in AAA entitles him to some struggles, so no real worries.  I’ve seen his bat compared today to Frank Thomas, Manny Ramirez, and Edgar Martinez “with more raw power”.  There are never any guarantees with prospects, but he has more offensive potential than any Mariner minor leaguer since… I don’t know, Alex Rodriguez?

The rest of the deal is likely to be 2B David Adams and a third guy, possibly RHP Zach McAllister, decent high-minors prospects in their own right.  We’ll have more info on them when/if the deal is finalized.  I hate seeing Cliff go, and would have loved an extension, but this is about as good a deal as I’ve hoped for.  The only person realistically discussed whom I would prefer over Montero is Justin Smoak, and there’s no guarantee he’ll be better than Montero.  There’s also no guarantee Montero will be good, but if you’re going to make a move, and the Mariners are, this is a great one to make.

-Matthew

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by | July 1, 2010 · 5:15 pm

Jack Z’s Goal

I’m amazed at the variety and ferocity of the opinions expressed about the Russell Branyan trade.  Some people (myself included) are happy about it, some people think it’s the sign that Jack Zduriencik is overmatched in his job and is working on borrowed time. 

I shared my thoughts in an earlier post, so I won’t go into a lot of detail again.  People are certainly entitled to their opinions, but the railing against the trade sounds to me like a lot of frustration from a losing season, and possibly frustration that this move didn’t happen sooner.  I certainly understand that.  I do think that teams and players place a lot more weight in wins in a lost season than fans do, however.  When you start reeling off 90-loss seasons too often, it’s easy to lose respectability as a franchise.  Younger players in those situations often seem to develop into much less than what was expected of them.  I can’t think of a way to study if that’s true, but I think anyone who’s played sports even somewhat competitively will agree that learning to win is a real process, and any chance to to start on that or keep it going is important, at least in my mind.  The Mariners made a nice break in a losing culture last year.  Finding respectability again this year could be important.

All that isn’t really the reason for this post, however.  Continue reading →

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by | June 26, 2010 · 10:36 pm

Better Without Cliff Lee?

Right this second, Cliff Lee is the best pitcher in baseball.  His numbers are ridiculous, and beyond the numbers, he’s dominant in a way that has to be seen to be understood.  We often joke that Ichiro can hit the ball exactly where he wants to at any time.   I think Cliff Lee’s at the point where he can do anything he wants on the mound.  Wednesday night, he gave up two doubles in a row with no outs and didn’t give up a run in the inning.  Granted, one of the doubles was a bloop where the Mariners forgot to cover second, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this was the first time in history where a team had two consecutive doubles, without someone being thrown out on the bases, yet couldn’t score in the inning.  He’s ridiculous.  Need a strikeout?  Not a problem.  Want a pop-up for fun?  Here you go, Wilson Brothers!

I would be very happy if the Mariners signed Lee to a 5 year $125 million contract tomorrow.  They could go to $150 mil. and I’d be happy.  Unfortunately, the chances of that happening are extremely small.  In all likelihood, he’ll be traded in the next couple of weeks.  If we’re lucky as fans, he’ll be in Seattle long enough to start the all-star game in a Mariners hat, but even that’s doubtful.

We’ll have a goodbye post when he’s actually gone, though.  The point of this post is to examine if it’s possible for the Mariners to get better by trading Lee.  I’m not talking about in future years, either.  A trade has to make them better in 2011 and beyond or else it’s a bust.  Which isn’t out of the realm of possibility.  What I’m wondering is if the Mariners can become a better baseball team in 2010 with whatever they get back in a Cliff Lee trade. Continue reading →

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by | June 26, 2010 · 10:07 pm

Russell Branyan is Back!

If you haven’t heard yet, the Mariners just traded for Russell Branyan.  They gave up two prospects: Ezequiel Carrera, a slap-hitting speedy outfielder, and Juan Diaz, a decent-glove small-stick shortstop.  If either of them develops into more than a bench bat in the bigs, it will be a surprise.

Some of the local Mariners blogs are trying to figure out the point of this trade and are claiming it’s hard to understand.  I understand their perspective, but I think it’s pretty easy to understand.  The Mariners had the worst collection of first basemen I’ve ever seen.  They don’t anymore.  It seems pretty simple.  Sometimes you just have to get better in whatever way you can.

As amateur analysts and wannabe GMs, we tend to oversimplify.  When the Mariners are clearly out of contention, as they are now, we focus on how to get better for the next season.  The real management doesn’t have that luxury.  They have to sell tickets, and Russell Branyan helps do that.  He’s a name that I would bet many fans associate with last year’s season, and on top of that he brings some power, which is sorely needed and a lot more entertaining than what we’ve seen so far.  After missing most of the first month of the season, Branyan has played in just over 50 games and is already at 1.2 WAR, better than any Mariner except for Guti and Ichiro.  He has 10 homers, 3 more than Milton’s team-leading 7. 

There’s the argument that the M’s should be giving playing time to younger players to see what they’re capable of.  But who exactly are these young guys that Branyan is stealing time from?  Carp is bad.  Kotchman is the worst hitting first baseman I’ve ever seen.  They could possibly trade for someone, but if Jack Z. has the opportunity to trade for a younger first baseman/DH with potential, Branyan’s not going to stop him.  He’s a good stop-gap who could possibly factor into the future if needed

My first response on hearing about this trade was, “Great, someone who’s actually fun to watch!”  It doesn’t have to mean something big and important.  It’s just a move to make this team better.  Not good enough to magically chase down the Rangers, but better.  The more you lose, the harder it is to turn things around the next year.  This team has plenty of room for Russell The Muscle and his home runs.

-Matthew

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