Tag Archives: Justin Smoak

by | August 14, 2010 · 1:14 pm

Tacoma Rainiers Update

The Mariners just promoted Mauricio Robles and Dan Cortes to Triple-A Tacoma from West Tennessee.  Cortes was no surprise, as he’s been ridiculously good since moving into the bullpen a few weeks ago.  Someone, I think Jason Churchill, reported that he hasn’t thrown a fastball under 97 mph, I believe, since the change.  If he keeps up anything close to that, I’ll be amazed if he’s not in the Mariners’ pen to start next year.  As it is, he’ll probably be called up in September anyway.

Robles is a little bit more surprising, but not incredibly so.  He’s having a good but not incredible year, but I think most would be pretty satisfied with his development thus far.  The lefty will start tomorrow, which pushes Pineda back a start.  I would imagine the major reason for these promotions are to help keep Pineda’s innings in check without depriving the Rainiers of talent while they fight for a playoff spot.  Both players are deserving though.

In other Tacoma news, Justin Smoak hit a homer last night and has three in his last 5 games.  He’s up to four homers and a .779 OPS at Tacoma after a terrible start when he was first sent down.  Dustin Ackley is hitting the cover off the ball, going 3-5 last night.  He’s at .304/.381/.471.  He’ll be starting at second in Seattle by July.

Thanks to Mike Curto’s blog, Mike… Off-Mic, for the info.  He’s the Rainiers radio announcer and an all-around good guy.

-Matthew

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by | July 17, 2010 · 12:44 pm

The Rebuilding Process, Year 3

A couple weeks ago I wrote about Years 1 and 2 of the rebuilding process the Mariners are in, orchestrated by Jack Zduriencik. With year 2 nearing completion, let’s look ahead to year 3 of rebuild mode.

Following this 2010 season, the Mariners will likely find themselves less ahead of schedule than what had been anticipated going into this season. The 85 wins in 2009 will be followed up with something like 65-70 wins. The Mariners do not have much money coming off the books, and their best player from 2009, Cliff Lee, is wearing a Texas uniform at the moment. In some ways, things may look bleak for the Mariners after this season. However, looking again at the big picture of rebuilding in 3-4 years, I think the positives still outweigh the negatives because of the strengthened farm system, the lack of bad contracts, and a strong nucleus that are all signed (Ichiro, Felix, Smoak, Guti).

Rewind with me again to November 2008. The Mariners were a mess, kind of like the Seahawks are today, and similar to Husky football after the Willingham era concluded. In each case, our team needed to blow things up and rebuild. This happens in sports, and typically, rebuilding takes 3-4 years. Of course the Yankees can do it in 1 year, and the Royals or Pirates need about 10 years, but for a Seattle team in a good market, 3-4 years is about the norm. This season it appeared the M’s might be able to take advantage of a weakened division and some savvy trades, and take the shortcut from rebuilder to contender in just 12 months. But 2010 has not panned out, and while it looks like the M’s are going to have to start over again once this year ends, the reality is the foundation for rebuilding was laid a year ago, and Seattle is finishing year 2 of a 3-4 year rebuilding process.

In his “Wait ‘Til Next Year” series, Matthew recently broke down each position, and forecasted the roster heading into next season. Certainly a common theme in these posts is the uncertainty at multiple positions, but despite the question marks, the M’s will continue building around a solid group that will surely include Felix, Ichiro, Ackley, Gutierrez, Figgins, Saunders, Smoak, Pineda, Vargas and Fister. Others from the current roster will be back next year, and some will not, and additions will need to be made, either via trade, free agency, or growth in the farm system. Given how difficult it is to predict trades, let’s look at the unrestricted free agent crop for 2011, and specifically, free agents that may be realistic targets for the Mariners, give their needs. Yes, Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte, and Derek Jeter may hit free agency, but again, this list only includes realistic targets, at positions the M’s may have an interest.
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by | July 10, 2010 · 10:20 pm

The Last 2 Days

Yesterday I returned home from a 3 week stint working at a Young Life camp.  Without cell phone service and limited internet connections, I wasn’t able to keep up with sports the way I usually do.  But what a day yesterday was to return to the real World.  As soon as I got cell phone service I received a text message from Matthew saying that the Mariners were about to trade Cliff Lee for Jesus Montero.  I was ecstatic about this.  When I left this kind of offer was a little bit crazy to even dream about. 

Then, the deal was off.  Some people say it was Adams ankle injury that ended this deal.  I’m no expert but that’s not the case.  The deal was off because the Rangers offered Justin Smoak.  No one knows if Smoak will be better than Montero at this point.  There’s only so much scouting reports can tell us and they sure can’t predict the future.  If there is one thing that our GM excels at though it’s talent evaluation so we have to trust him at this point, in my opinion.  By now, if you’re at all interested in the Mariners you’ve heard the scouting reports.  Justin Smoak is an above average defender with a bat that should hit for a pretty good average and 25-30 home runs.  He has a good eye and is a switch hitter (although he has some pretty drastic splits thus far).  I’ve heard comparisons from John Olerud to Mark Teixeira but the one I most agree with after reading everything available is Adrian Gonzalez.

The 2 pitchers acquired should be contributors in the future.  One is in the mold of a Doug Fister type starter except with a little more velocity.  The reliever seems to be a pretty standard guy.  He has a plus fastball and slider and has amazing K/BB rates in the minors.  He could be in the bullpen by next year.  The other guy might turn out, he might not. 

I’m excited about this deal.  Cliff Lee might have given the Seattle Mariners the best 2 months of pitching they’ve ever had.  I could do a whole different post on this but, to put a long story short, he was absolutely amazing.  He might go help the Rangers win the World Series.  Which leads me to the question that many fans might be asking, “Should I still cheer for Cliff Lee even if he’s playing for a division rival?”  My answer is yes.  I mean, why not?  The Mariners are not going to come back in this division and the Rangers are an exciting team.  They have young talent that’s easy to root for.  It’s not like Cliff Lee is going to re-sign with them anyway.  As of yesterday the Rangers became the AL team that I will cheer for to make the World Series. 

Back to the trade, it is awesome for a couple of reason.  This trade will not hurt the Mariners this year because the Mariners suck this year.  This trade won’t hurt the Mariners in the future because Cliff Lee won’t be there in the future.  You know who will be with the Mariners in the future?  Justin Smoak.  I saw a commenter at Lookout Landing say we basically just made a prospect swap, dropping Phillipe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, and Juan Ramirez and picking up Justin Smoak, Blake Beaven, Josh Lueke, and Matt Lawson all the while we got to see some of the best pitching anyone has ever seen.  The prospect swap was awesome by Baseball America standards. 

Both of the big names made their debuts tonight and both were bad.  Don’t read into this.  We all know Cliff Lee is awesome and Smoak is still in his rookie season figuring things out.  This trade will definitely not be “won” or “lost” by the Mariners this year.  We won’t be able for figure that out for a few years.  I would argue that it’s almost impossible for the Mariners to lose this trade but I’ll save that.  The Rangers could lose this one easily, I think.  Although they won’t if they go on to win the World Series. 

The game tonight was awesome.  Lopez barely hit that ball out (classic Jose Lopez) but when he dropped that bat and looked towards the dugout I could feel the frustration he released with that hit.  I don’t care for Lopez as a baseball player but you have to feel for him, along with countless other Mariners, as he is having just an awful year.  It was the first game I’ve got to watch since coming home and it was so much fun to watch.  I sure do hate the Yankees. 

Well this post has rambled on long enough.  I have too much to say and not enough patience to organize those thoughts right now.  I’ll just end with this:  Good job Mariners, in a season that’s gone incredibly wrong, the last 2 days worked out about as well as they could have.

Andrew

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by | July 9, 2010 · 11:21 am

Cliff Lee Almost a Yankee

1:00 Update:  Should have waited 45 minutes on this.  Sounds like the deal might be off, which could just be negotiations or could mean another team made a really huge offer.  I guess we’ll see.

I planned to write a post about the various Cliff Lee rumors today before leaving on vacation tonight, but it looks like that won’t be necessary.  Barring the deal falling apart at what sounds like the last minute, Cliff Lee will be a Yankee by the end of the day.  He’ll be dealt or the deal will be off before he makes his start tonight, which means he’ll likely never play another game in a Mariners uniform. 

If the rumored deal is correct, the Mariners will get a haul, mostly in the form of one Jesus Montero.  He’s a catcher who will likely end up a 1B or DH, but his power bat is maybe the best in the minors.  He struggled to start the year as a 20-year-old at AAA, but has turned it around in the last few weeks.  Being 20 in AAA entitles him to some struggles, so no real worries.  I’ve seen his bat compared today to Frank Thomas, Manny Ramirez, and Edgar Martinez “with more raw power”.  There are never any guarantees with prospects, but he has more offensive potential than any Mariner minor leaguer since… I don’t know, Alex Rodriguez?

The rest of the deal is likely to be 2B David Adams and a third guy, possibly RHP Zach McAllister, decent high-minors prospects in their own right.  We’ll have more info on them when/if the deal is finalized.  I hate seeing Cliff go, and would have loved an extension, but this is about as good a deal as I’ve hoped for.  The only person realistically discussed whom I would prefer over Montero is Justin Smoak, and there’s no guarantee he’ll be better than Montero.  There’s also no guarantee Montero will be good, but if you’re going to make a move, and the Mariners are, this is a great one to make.

-Matthew

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by | June 26, 2010 · 10:36 pm

Better Without Cliff Lee?

Right this second, Cliff Lee is the best pitcher in baseball.  His numbers are ridiculous, and beyond the numbers, he’s dominant in a way that has to be seen to be understood.  We often joke that Ichiro can hit the ball exactly where he wants to at any time.   I think Cliff Lee’s at the point where he can do anything he wants on the mound.  Wednesday night, he gave up two doubles in a row with no outs and didn’t give up a run in the inning.  Granted, one of the doubles was a bloop where the Mariners forgot to cover second, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this was the first time in history where a team had two consecutive doubles, without someone being thrown out on the bases, yet couldn’t score in the inning.  He’s ridiculous.  Need a strikeout?  Not a problem.  Want a pop-up for fun?  Here you go, Wilson Brothers!

I would be very happy if the Mariners signed Lee to a 5 year $125 million contract tomorrow.  They could go to $150 mil. and I’d be happy.  Unfortunately, the chances of that happening are extremely small.  In all likelihood, he’ll be traded in the next couple of weeks.  If we’re lucky as fans, he’ll be in Seattle long enough to start the all-star game in a Mariners hat, but even that’s doubtful.

We’ll have a goodbye post when he’s actually gone, though.  The point of this post is to examine if it’s possible for the Mariners to get better by trading Lee.  I’m not talking about in future years, either.  A trade has to make them better in 2011 and beyond or else it’s a bust.  Which isn’t out of the realm of possibility.  What I’m wondering is if the Mariners can become a better baseball team in 2010 with whatever they get back in a Cliff Lee trade. Continue reading →

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