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by dpscansen | February 27, 2010 · 5:31 pm

I hope this is a jinx but…Canada will win Gold

Sorry to be the pessimist, but as excited as I am for tomorrow’s gold medal hockey matchup between USA and Canada, I have fully prepared myself for a loss. I’ve sensed this re-match coming ever since last Sunday. Of course I want the Americans to duplicate their success against Canada, and I suppose luck could stay on their side one more time, but I just don’t see it. I don’t have compelling stats or great logic even to back it up, but I do have an unbroken formula for games like this which I will share later.

I realize the Americans have yet to trail for 1 minute of this tournament, but I’ve watched enough sports to know how championship games like this typically play out. It’s the same feeling I have watching UW play UCONN in the NCAA tournament, or the Mariners versus the Yankees in an ALCS, the Seahawks versus the Steelers in the Super Bowl, or on a more personal level, seeing my Bothell Cougars play for a state title. It’s a scene I am all too familiar with. Call it the Seattle sports fan syndrome. Now, you’re probably saying, wait, the Americans DID do it already, and just a week ago at that, so why not again? Yes, they did beat Canada 5-3, but was it for a championship? Nope. This past year I watched my underdog Bothell Cougars beat top ranked Skyline in a fantastic game, but a re-match loomed ahead. The second time around, Skyline was not surprised and they won when it counted most. I see Sunday’s contest following this script.

I know how fickle sports, and particularly hockey, can be. It’s like baseball in a lot of ways, in that on any given night, a goalie (or a pitcher in baseball) can almost single handedly win a game. I suppose Ryan Miller could just stop everything tomorrow, and he is certainly capable. But again, I go back to the pattern that sports has shown me for my 24 years of existence. And for this, I have a formula, which I have yet to see broken: MT+UD+CG=L

my team + underdog + championship game = LOSS

I have countless examples of this formula and it’s accuracy. ’95, ’00-Mariners; ’96-Sonics; ’02-USA hockey; ’05-Seahawks; ’06, ’09-Bothell. Each time my team was an underdog, (although the favored ’01 Mariners and ’07 Bothell teams also lost), each time they were playing for a conference championship or title game, and each time the result was a big L. I have seen some of my teams win conference championships (’96 Sonics, ’05 Seahawks, ’00 Husky football, and ’08 Husky basketball), but in each case my team was favored, so it was somewhat expected.

Canada is playing on home ice, with their confidence restored, a new goalie in net, and everything on the line, including sweet revenge over the Americans. They will win that game. If you disagree, at this point you might be yelling “Dan, what about 1980 at Lake Placid? What about the Mariners in 1995 ALDS? What about George Mason making the Final 4, or the Jets, Giants, or Saints beating all odds to win the Super Bowl?!!!!!” Sports are littered with Cinderella stories, and monumental upsets. I have personally witnessed some, such as Weber State over North Carolina at Key Arena, or more recently UW beating USC last year. But none of these under dogs fit the exact mold of my formula, other than the 1980 USA team, but I wasn’t born yet! So in closing, Go USA!!!!!…but be prepared and happy for a silver medal.

-Dan

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by Joe Loughery | February 25, 2010 · 3:55 pm

USA v Finland – Quick Thoughts

First off, I really love to watch high level hockey, so these Olympics have been exciting to watch. I mean, I watched Sweden v. Slovakia and Finland v. Czech last night via the computer just because I love the sport. Do I have a life? Yes, it’s just that sometimes you gotta do your homework to know what the heck you are talking about.

The US will face Finland tomorrow at high noon in Vancouver for the right to play for the gold Sunday afternoon, and most likely face home-country favs Canada. I like Team USA here. Finland has two stud goalies in Kiprusoff and Backstrom, and some solid forwards (Selanne, Jokinen and the Koivus), but the Americans bring the toughness to the ice, and I think they can get a lead and sit on it. In last nights game with Czech, Finland looked very sluggish offensively. There was no explosion to the net, and their one legit goal was a fluky one in which one of the Czech defenders lost his helmet, (according to Olympic rules requires him to immediately go fetch it) thus he vacated his post covering his goalies blind right side. Finland threw something on net and it went in. I was actually not impressed with Finland all that much. Kiprusoff was solid, as usual. He is one of the better goalies in the world, so I expect him to carry Finland. If they have any shot at beating the Americans, he will have to be a wall.

For the Americans, they must stay aggressive in the offensive zone. They literally controlled the entire game verses Switzerland. The Swiss really had no shot once Team USA scored. Bobby Ryan and David Backes have been solid on defense, while Parise and Rafalski continue to provide pressure on offense. I was impressed with the Americans ability to change tactics throughout the game verses the Swiss. Switzerland was really locking this down on defense, so the Americans had to adjust their strategy, and it worked. They wore Switzerland down. A one goal lead was all they needed.

In the end, I see Team USA winning this game. They know what is on the line. They have grinded and fought to get where they are today, so I expect them to bring their A-game and defeat the Fins. The game will be close because Kiprusoff will keep it that way, but I think the Americans strike first, and then apply pressure the rest of the game, forcing the Fins to make mistakes along the way.