Monthly Archives: June 2010

by | June 26, 2010 · 10:36 pm

Better Without Cliff Lee?

Right this second, Cliff Lee is the best pitcher in baseball.  His numbers are ridiculous, and beyond the numbers, he’s dominant in a way that has to be seen to be understood.  We often joke that Ichiro can hit the ball exactly where he wants to at any time.   I think Cliff Lee’s at the point where he can do anything he wants on the mound.  Wednesday night, he gave up two doubles in a row with no outs and didn’t give up a run in the inning.  Granted, one of the doubles was a bloop where the Mariners forgot to cover second, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this was the first time in history where a team had two consecutive doubles, without someone being thrown out on the bases, yet couldn’t score in the inning.  He’s ridiculous.  Need a strikeout?  Not a problem.  Want a pop-up for fun?  Here you go, Wilson Brothers!

I would be very happy if the Mariners signed Lee to a 5 year $125 million contract tomorrow.  They could go to $150 mil. and I’d be happy.  Unfortunately, the chances of that happening are extremely small.  In all likelihood, he’ll be traded in the next couple of weeks.  If we’re lucky as fans, he’ll be in Seattle long enough to start the all-star game in a Mariners hat, but even that’s doubtful.

We’ll have a goodbye post when he’s actually gone, though.  The point of this post is to examine if it’s possible for the Mariners to get better by trading Lee.  I’m not talking about in future years, either.  A trade has to make them better in 2011 and beyond or else it’s a bust.  Which isn’t out of the realm of possibility.  What I’m wondering is if the Mariners can become a better baseball team in 2010 with whatever they get back in a Cliff Lee trade. Continue reading →

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by | June 26, 2010 · 10:07 pm

Russell Branyan is Back!

If you haven’t heard yet, the Mariners just traded for Russell Branyan.  They gave up two prospects: Ezequiel Carrera, a slap-hitting speedy outfielder, and Juan Diaz, a decent-glove small-stick shortstop.  If either of them develops into more than a bench bat in the bigs, it will be a surprise.

Some of the local Mariners blogs are trying to figure out the point of this trade and are claiming it’s hard to understand.  I understand their perspective, but I think it’s pretty easy to understand.  The Mariners had the worst collection of first basemen I’ve ever seen.  They don’t anymore.  It seems pretty simple.  Sometimes you just have to get better in whatever way you can.

As amateur analysts and wannabe GMs, we tend to oversimplify.  When the Mariners are clearly out of contention, as they are now, we focus on how to get better for the next season.  The real management doesn’t have that luxury.  They have to sell tickets, and Russell Branyan helps do that.  He’s a name that I would bet many fans associate with last year’s season, and on top of that he brings some power, which is sorely needed and a lot more entertaining than what we’ve seen so far.  After missing most of the first month of the season, Branyan has played in just over 50 games and is already at 1.2 WAR, better than any Mariner except for Guti and Ichiro.  He has 10 homers, 3 more than Milton’s team-leading 7. 

There’s the argument that the M’s should be giving playing time to younger players to see what they’re capable of.  But who exactly are these young guys that Branyan is stealing time from?  Carp is bad.  Kotchman is the worst hitting first baseman I’ve ever seen.  They could possibly trade for someone, but if Jack Z. has the opportunity to trade for a younger first baseman/DH with potential, Branyan’s not going to stop him.  He’s a good stop-gap who could possibly factor into the future if needed

My first response on hearing about this trade was, “Great, someone who’s actually fun to watch!”  It doesn’t have to mean something big and important.  It’s just a move to make this team better.  Not good enough to magically chase down the Rangers, but better.  The more you lose, the harder it is to turn things around the next year.  This team has plenty of room for Russell The Muscle and his home runs.

-Matthew

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by | June 24, 2010 · 10:19 am

Well….

I don’t have anytime to post and hardly any internet connection but it looks like I should leave more often.

Andrew

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by | June 21, 2010 · 2:02 pm

The Rebuilding Process, Years 1 & 2

    Year One

Following the disastrous 2008 season, the Mariners blew up the team, hired a new general manager, and eventually a new manager as well. Seattle was officially entering into a commonly used sports cliché, “rebuilding mode.” Jack Zduriencik wasted no time cutting bad contracts, bad draft picks, and basically any dead weight that Bill Bavasi had left behind. Entering the 2009 season, expectations were low, but excitement was building thanks to a new fresh regime. Last year’s team overachieved by most standards, thanks to a terrific record in close games, a reinvigorated team chemistry, and numerous players having career years. Needless to say, the Mariners seemed way ahead of schedule, finishing with an impressive 85-77 record. It felt like the rebuilding process might have come and gone in just 1 year.

    Year Two

Jack Zduriencik followed up the ’09 campaign by shedding the rest of the dead weight, and with new money to spend, Seattle acquired Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins, Milton Bradley, and a couple other role players. A year after expectations were low and playoff talk was not even on the radar, suddenly the 2010 season began with renewed hope and fans were encouraged to “Believe Big.” We all know how this year has unfolded. The close game fortune from last year is gone, the Griffey reunion lasted a year too long, and instead of career bests from numerous players, we are witnessing career worst performances by many. The rebuilding process we had hoped might last just 1 year is still in process. For a moment, Zduriencik saw a shortcut out of rebuild mode, but that crack was quickly closed. It was a risk worth taking, because legitimate shots at the playoffs don’t come often. A failed attempt, such as what we are seeing unfold, is upsetting, but probably won’t set the team back much. Cliff Lee is sure to be traded shortly, and the package Zduriencik gets in return will likely outweigh the 3 prospects that Seattle sent to the Phillies for Lee, and once the 2010 season is buried, Zduriencik will continue to build.

The bad contracts have been shed, the foundation has been laid, and despite this lost, tumultuous, depressing season, the Mariners are probably still on track to accomplish the long term goals that were set back in November, 2008. The high expectations heading into 2010 can easily distract us from the big picture, and while there is a lot to be frustrated about at the current moment, when looking at the full view, it’s really not that bad given where this team was just 2 years ago.

-Dan

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by | June 18, 2010 · 4:43 pm

The Big Questions Summer Update

Back before the Huskies started Spring Practice, we put together a list of questions that we thought were key to the 2010 season.  Now that the expansion chaos has calmed slightly, let’s look back and see if we have any new answers.
  1. Can the offense become a consistent threat? I don’t think spring showed anything that would make us think otherwise.  Jake and the receivers looked as good as we expected, maybe better.  The offensive line, with Senio Kelemete at left tackle and a lot of experience everywhere else, gave hope for a bust-out year.  With Polk out, Cooper and Callier showed that they’ll be at least back-up threats this year.  The only concerns at all are fullback, back-up QB and maybe Middleton, who didn’t take the step forward that would have been great to see.  But the fact remains, if Jake’s healthy, this unit should be tough.
  2. Can the Dawgs field a defensive line that will stop anyone?  Injuries were a major problem for this group, as it was shorthanded to start and always seemed to have at least one addition member out.  Everyone should be back healthy for the season though, so we’ll just have to wait and see once they have a full group and the incoming frosh on the field.  One plus: Elisara played a lot of DE and looked solid, which will help with versatility, if nothing else. 
  3. Will quality depth emerge on offense? As mentioned above, the offensive depth looked much improved this spring.  The running backs might have fewer bodies, but the ones they have are better and more versatile than in recent years.  Receiver looked to be in good shape but actually suffered some injuries and could possibly need a freshman to play.  The top four or so look great, however.  Izbicki passed Middleton on the depth chart and they’re a solid tandem.  The line isn’t as deep as we’d like yet, but again, it looks better than any line in recent memory.  The back-up QB’s were shaky, as was expected.
  4. Can the defense take the next step?  It’s tough to say on this, with the line such a mish-mash.  The linebackers looked good and the safeties were much improved.  The corners looked like a very deep group, even with Trufant out.  It’ll all depend on the line, but there’s definitely promise here.
  5. Will special teams find any playmakers?  Special teams is the one thing that’s not practiced much, at least in scrimmages, so I don’t have a good answer for this.  The presence of the freshman is a positive, so we’ll keep our fingers crossed.
  6. Will we see any changes in Nick Holt’s defensive game-calling in his second year? This is tough to call as well.  It seemed like there were a few more blitzes in what I watched, but that could be my imagination.  Between keeping schemes vanilla so as not to give away much and the practices being more geared toward fundamental improvement, we won’t really know this until games start.
  7. Who will emerge at safety and linebacker?  Safety was maybe the most improved position on the team this spring.  Nate Williams missed some time with injury, but looked much-improved.  I saw the other day that he’s dropped his 40 time from the 4.7s to the 4.5s, which is huge.  The real positive was the battle between Nate Fellner and Will Shamburger at the other spot.  Both showed big improvement and should battle for the job, along with Justin Glenn.  At linebacker, the Foster-Dennison due looked like the strength of the defense.  Alvin Logan, Matt Houston, and Victor Burnett all had their moments competing for the other spot, although Victor Aieywa might have the lead over all of them this fall.
  8. How much of the team’s success is dependent on Jake Locker?  How far can he lead them?  In a word, still pretty much all of it.  This team is good enough to win a few without Locker, but with him healthy for the full season, I think they have a good shot at one of the top three Pac-10 bowl games, especially with USC out.

The team recently started their summer workouts, which are “voluntary”, and the rest of the freshman will report in the middle of July.  It sounds like Chris Young and Darius Waters, two linebackers, are the only possible academic casualties.  Cross your fingers, because they’re not two we want to lose, especially Young.  Husky specific news (non-expansion will probably be sparse until August, with the exception of the occasional fluff piece from the beat writers about how much stronger a certain player has gotten or how the team is really bonding this summer.  That leaves plenty of time for the Good Guys to cover the exciting Mariners season.  Lucky us.

Have a good weekend everyone.  Go Dawgs!

-Matthew

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by | June 17, 2010 · 12:25 am

3 Weeks

Today I’m leaving to go work at a camp for 3 weeks without connection to the outside world.  Blame me for the lack of blog posts in the next 3 weeks.  I’m looking forward to this time as it will be a good experience but there’s another aspect to this as well.  I’m looking forward to escaping for a while.  I’m not going to try to poetically craft a couple nice metaphors over a few paragraphs that describe why we all need escapes from reality.  Instead, I’ll just bluntly say that life can provide a lot of crap and we don’t get away from that crap often enough.  I have a great life but still can feel bogged down by certain situations.  It’s inevitable considering that we’re all human.  But since this is a sports blog, let me say that maybe we need an escape from sports too.

I’m not one to quit on my teams.  For being a 19-year-old, I’ve suffered through some really bad seasons.  The Mariners haven’t been to the playoffs since I entered my teens and the Huskies haven’t been to a bowl game since I went into high school.  Still, I can’t remember the last time I didn’t watch or listen to a Husky football game and I’ve only missed 5 Mariners games this year. 

This season has been rough on everyone but I’m not about to quit.  I like baseball and like knowing about my team too much.  Will the Mariners make the playoffs?  No way.  But that’s not going to stop me from watching them.  With that being said, I’m not sure this is a good thing.  I’m a happy person but sometimes these teams affect my moods.  The Huskies more so than the M’s.  So this break from reality, and from sports, provides me with a good excuse to not watch the Mariners lose another 15 games.  There are downsides, but at least I’m not missing watching a first place team play.  I’ve seen this version of the Mariners a few too many times in the past 8 years, I’m not feeling that bad about missing 3 weeks of this team.

With these pleasant breaks come realizations about who and what you care about most.  Needless to say, I care about my family and friends most and I’ll miss talking to a few certain people more than anything while being away.  But after that I’ll miss a few things in the sports world a lot.  I’m missing out on game 7 of one of the most interesting NBA Finals I’ve seen.  I’ll miss the speculation on Cliff Lee being traded and his last few starts as a Mariner.  I’ll miss the World Cup, which only comes around 4 years (I’m a little bitter about this).  I’ll miss King Felix and my cousin Tyler getting his first few games as a district all-star.  And I’ll definitely miss grabbing a Pepsi in the early evening and sitting down on the couch to watch the Mariners.

It’s only 3 weeks but that’s a pretty long time in the sports world.  It’s funny how the first post I wrote on this blog was about sports giving us a break from reality and now I’m talking about taking a break from sports.  So, go Mariners (if they win every game while I’m gone they would be 4 games over .500 when I return, that’s pathetic), go USA and all the African soccer teams, go Lakers (yes, I like the Lakers. Sue me.) and thank you for being awesome Cliff Lee. 

Also, thank you readers.  It’s almost been half a year on this blog and it’s exceeded my expectations.  One started as an idea because I missed writing, has turned into something I look forward to everyday.  See you in 3 weeks!

Andrew

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by | June 15, 2010 · 9:14 pm

Ian Snell DFA’d and Losing Trades

If you’ve followed the Mariners today, you’ve probably heard that Ian Snell has been designated for assignment.  It’s about time.  Ian Snell has been terrible the past couple years and was even worse this year.  Now, he’s gone and Brian Sweeney is up (more on him in a little while).

Ian Snell came over here last Summer in the Jack Wilson-Jeff Clement trade.  It seemed like a good idea at the time; Snell was a young starter who possibly needed a change of scenery and Jack Wilson was the shortstop who was going to captain the world’s best defense.  It hasn’t really worked out, to say the least.  Jack has been hurt more often than not since coming here and Snell has been terrible.  That leads to the obvious, and somewhat annoying, question, “Did the Mariners lose this trade?”  These questions usually rub me the wrong way.  This is because we are fans on the outside and the people who sometimes proclaim the trade as lost don’t know as much about the organization as they should.  Lets take a look at this example:

  • One team received a double-A starter who has a 5.92 ERA in 11 starts this year.  He is running out an 8.4 K/9 innings rate, which is really good but not much else seems to be going for him.
  • The other team received a shortstop who has been starting at the major league level.  This guy is hitting .281 and, although he has one of the worst UZR’s in the league, has a pretty solid fielding percentage.

Which team wins that trade?  Well, obviously the team with the shortstop right?  No.  That shortstop is Yuniesky Betancourt.  This is just one of many examples that show a trade can not be judged by an outsider without organizational knowledge.  The double-A pitcher I refered to above is actually a decent prospect.  His name is Dan Cortes and if he ever gains some control he could be in the majors.  Yuni sucks.  People don’t know these things when looking at stats, they only know them after reading scouting reports and watching them.  I think the Mariners made themselves a better organization by this trade even if Yuni is putting up solid numbers.  Can the same be said with the Royals?  I don’t know.  I don’t know enough about the Royals to make a fair judgement.  My first reaction would to be say no because of my experience with Yuni but that’s not fair to their front office.

So, back to the trade with Pittsburg last summer.  No, the Mariners did not win this trade.  Jack could come back and be a decent contributor this year and next but it’s probably not enough for me to say that this trade made the Mariners a better organization.  But did it make them worse?  Clement is hitting no better than Kotchman, .189, and has been moved out of the starting lineup.  Ronny Cedeno could put up the greatest numbers in the world and I wouldn’t regret trading him away.  Like Carlos Silva and Yuni, Ronny Cedeno wasn’t going to work in Seattle.  So, no I don’t think the Mariners lost this trade.  Clement could suddenly get better, he definitely has the brightest future of all of these players, but it sure doesn’t look like this will happen. 

Maybe no one won that trade.  It’s easy to see where both front offices were coming from in making the move.  So don’t think that this was a terrible move.  Jack Z wasn’t Bill Bavasi bad in this move.  He was just average, which is worse than usual with our GM.  It’s nice to say that.

A few more notes concerning this after the jump.  Continue reading →

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by | June 15, 2010 · 4:48 pm

The Real Downside to No Pac-16

Surely everyone’s heard by now that the much-discussed Pac-16 is dead, as Texas, followed by their fellow Big 12 boys, rejected the Pac-10’s invitation.  It’s kind of a weird move on Texas’ part, since the Big 12 will now have 10 teams, which takes away a conference title game.  They’ll be fine though.  I’d probably rather have a Pac-10 than a Pac-12 with Colorado and Utah, but it does allow a championship game, which brings in some money.  Some new blood will be fun too, at least for a while.  I have a pretty good feeling this will all be revisited in a couple of years anyway, so it might not be the Pac-12 for long.

Anyway, I’m fairly ambivalent about how the whole thing worked out, except for one thing. Ever since these rumors started flying, I’ve been getting excited about the chance to visit Austin.  Austin is probably at the top of the list of places I’d really like to visit but probably never will because I don’t have enough money to often randomly visit places like Austin.  For some reason, Austin has taken over as America’s mecca of cool, at least outside of New York (and this might only be in my mind).  I was really looking forward to flying down with Andrew and my wife if I could talk her into it and anyone else who wanted to come, watching the Huskies lose to UT, eating some barbecue, and hopefully getting lucky and catching Spoon or Okkervil River playing a hometown show.  A UW-UT game was the perfect excuse, and would have been a blast to see even on it’s own.  I guess it wasn’t meant to be.

Thanks for ruining my dreams, Texas!

-Matthew

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