Monthly Archives: June 2010

Wait ‘Til Next Year- Outfield & DH

Since I started this little series, the Mariners looked a little better a couple of times and then lost a bunch a couple of times. At this point, the season’s pretty well over.  USS Mariner just had a good post about 2011, and the gist of it is Dave Cameron counts only 10 positions where the team should have no worries for the 2011 roster.  I’ve come to about the same conclusion through these posts.  The last group to cover is the outfield and designated hitter, half of which is the strength of the offense, but the other half has as much instability as any part of the team.

2011 Outfield

Ichiro

Franklin Gutierrez

Milton Bradley

Michael Saunders

I’m going to go into a little more depth on the minor leaguers this time, or at least until I get bored.

Currently at Triple-A Tacoma:

Greg Halman:  The man with probably the most athletic potential in the system, it’s looking more and more likely he’ll never put it together.  The quick overview: often compared to Alfonso Soriano, Halman has huge power but strikes out at an incredible rate.  A really incredible rate.  He could cut that rate in half and it would still be really high.  Supposedly he’s solid defensively, at least in a corner, but not really a standout there.

Ezequiel Carrera: Came over in the Putz trade, probably a fourth outfielder-type.  Very quick, but doesn’t quite have the game changing speed that might get him a full-time job in the Juan Pierre style.  Solid defensively, as you might expect, and that should get him a reserve job at some point.  Good on-base numbers, but no power, which has prospect watchers worried his OBP will drop when he moves up and faces pitchers who won’t be afraid to throw him strikes.

Mike Wilson:  Former college football linebacker who remains solid muscle.  Similar to Halman in the power and strikeouts area, but on a slightly smaller scale.  Doesn’t hit for much average.  Could probably come up and pop a few while taking a few walks, but it’s doubtful he’ll ever be a regular.  Also has a habit of getting injured a lot.

Other guys in the minors:

Carlos Peguero: Double-A.  Got everyone excited with a monster first month of the season, but has tailed off since.  Again, similar to Halman, tons of power, strikeouts, contact and defense are an issue.  He could pull it together, and the raw power is maybe the best in the system, but he’s still a longshot to ever help the big club.

Dustin Ackley: Double-A.  See the infield edition of this series for more, because he’s currently playing 2B, and will likely stay there.  Mostly thought of as an outfielder when drafted though, so he might end up back there if that’s where he’s needed.  Unlikely though.

Potential Losses

Ryan Langerhans: I assume he’s out of options or free agency eligible, but not a big deal either way.

Milton Bradley:  He’s signed for next year, but if he slumps in the second half, I could see the team releasing him and eating his salary.

2011 Designated Hitter

Milton Bradley

I won’t go through the trouble of listing a bunch of guys here, because it could be anyone.  See the Everidge, Nelson, Carp 1B group from the infield post especially.  There aren’t any great options here though, outside of Bradley.  Someone could surprise, but there’s no legitimately huge bat knocking at the door.

Potential Losses

Mike Sweeney

Analysis

Ichiro and Franklin are obviously the offensive/defensive strength of the team right now and will continue to be so.  A lot will depend on what Bradley and Saunders do the rest of this season.  I’m sure the Mariners would love to have them starting next year at DH and left, respectively.  I wouldn’t be totally surprised if that happens, either.  Saunders is showing flashes.  His story wouldn’t be the first of a talented but not elite prospect struggling mightily and then putting it together over the next couple of seasons.  It’s hard to say what his upside would be at this point.  He reminds me of Shin-soo Choo, both in career path and the skillset he offers.  I’d say he’s definitely worthy of a near-regular role the rest of the season, unless the Mariners can get a really high level outfield prospect for Lee or something.

Everyone kind of knows where Bradley stands.  Personally, I don’t think he’s done and I see him improving throughout this year after that horrendous start.  If that happens, he’s a good option for DH or left, preferably DH.  Whatever the case with those two, the Mariners have to find a big power bat for either first, DH, or left.  Maybe it’s a young blue chip prospect, or maybe they go all in after a Prince Fielder type.  I’ll leave that up to Jack Zduriencik to figure out.  But with this team’s current make-up, I don’t think they can win anything without a true middle of the order bat at one of those spots.

-Matthew

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Colorado Joins Pac-10; More To Come?

A ton of news coming out of the college football world today.  One of the Good Guy’s will take a look at USC’s mess at some point but for now I’ll leave you a link to Bob Condotta’s blog.  Condotta does incredible work.  He is working at an incredible rate today and posting news right when it comes out.  We are lucky to have him cover the Huskies.  Okay, on to the expansion news.

Colorado joined the Pac-10 this morning (so is it the Pac-11 until further notice?).  Needless to say, this is the only move that is going to happen.  Nebraska moved to the Big-10 as of yesterday and, for a reason I don’t completely understand, this means that the whole Big-12 is pretty much over.  Now, there’s still a little bit of debate about who will follow Colorado to the Pac-10.

Most of the experts think the Pac-10 will expand to 16 teams.  Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State would follow Colorado.  The reason that Colorado jumped ship a little bit early is so Baylor wouldn’t steal their spot in the Pac-10.  As I’ve said before, this “Pac-16” would make our conference the best overall in the nation.  But this isn’t set in stone.

Today there have been a few reports of Oklahoma possibly joining the SEC and the Texas schools joining the Big-10.  Texas joining the Big-10 makes no sense geographically but it’s an interesting thought.  Oklahoma to the SEC does make a little more sense than the Texas rumor but I’ve seen more experts than not say that the SEC is not looking to expand at this time.  If these schools don’t join the Pac then look for Utah to join Colorado as the schools that join.

The next school expected to announce is Oklahoma State and if they do come to the Pac then I really think everyone else will follow.  We should know everything by tomorrow.  There’s never been this much college football news in June.

I would insert a Jeremiah Masoli joke here but I can’t decide if that’s in bad taste on a public blog.  He really screwed things up for himself.  If he didn’t go to Oregon and wasn’t an idiot I might feel sorry for him.  Maybe.

Andrew

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A layman’s preview of The World Cup

The World Cup

I freely admit I am not an expert at soccer. I don’t play now, didn’t play when I was a kid. I am a basketball, football, baseball guy. That said I have grown to like and appreciate soccer over the past few years, and for as long as I can remember have always enjoyed watching the World Cup. The 1994 WC in the United States had a profound impact on me as a fan: I was hooked.

So with the latest WC tourney just a week away I thought I would put together a preview. I know many readers of this blog know way more than I when it comes to futbol, so please chime in if I am out to lunch on some of my predictions.

One thing to note: There have been some pretty significant injuries lately, namely: Didier Drogba of Ivory Coast, England captain Rio Ferdinand, 2006 Final Man of the Match Andrea Pirlo of Italy and German captain Michael Ballack. These injuries do change the landscape some, especially Drogba. But overall I will try and predict based on the teams as a whole and not just one player being gone. As well, I am only looking at who will come out of the various groups.

GROUP A: Host country South Africa probably isn’t too pleased to be seeded with perennial WC entrants Mexico, France and Uruguay. South Africa will have an entire nation behind them to advance to the knock out stage. The problem is Mexico and France will advance. Even though both sides are weak coming into the Cup, I just don’t see them floundering. 1st: (LES BLEUS) FRANCE 2nd: (EL TRI) MEXICO

GROUP B: To me this group is clear cut. Argentina is a odds on favorite for good reason. Messi and Milito are flat out masterful. Milito’s performance in the Champions League Final was one for the ages. I am simply in love with Argentina. The problem lies with their head coach, the (in)famous Diego Maradona who continues to tinker with his lineup. The Nigeria Super Eagles will challenge for this groups title, but ultimately finish second. South Korea and “The Pirate Ship” Greece just don’t have the talent to hang. 1st: (ALBICELESTE) ARGENTINA 2nd: (SUPER EAGLES) NIGERIA

GROUP C: All eyes will be on this group, and for good reason, anything could happen. USA v England will get all the hype this Saturday, but I like the “other” two sides here, Algeria and Slovenia. Algeria is unpredictable, but talented, and able to score in bunches. Plus they are technically on home soil. Slovenia beat Russia to qualify for the Cup, and have an all world keeper in Samir Zmajceki. Because of these factors, these sides will give England and USA problems. Expect great matches here. Ultimately talent wins out though. 1st: (THE THREE LIONS) ENGLAND 2nd: (THE YANKS) UNITED STATES

GROUP D: A quasi “Group of Death”, this group is packed to the gills with solid sides. Without question, Germany is the favorite here. Even with skipper Michael Ballack on the shelf, the Germans are tremendously talented. Klose and Schweinsteiger are all world. As much as I like The Black Stars of Ghana, I don’t see them coming from this group. “Beli Orlovi” aka Serbia could shock here. I think this group comes down to the Aussies and Serbs, with Australia coming out ahead. 1st: (DIE MANNSCHAFT) GERMANY 2nd: (THE SOCCEROOS) AUSTRALIA

GROUP E: This is probably the clearest group to predict. I think The Dutch are the clear favorites here, I have them in my final. They are creative, tested and united. After them, I love Cameroon. They play with flair and aggression, plus being on home soil will help here. Japan and Denmark are outclassed, will ultimately not advance. This one is a no-brainer. 1st: (ORANJE) NETHERLANDS 2nd: (THE INDOMITABLE LIONS) CAMEROON

GROUP F: This is an odd group. Defending champs Italy lead, but are aging. Paraguay seems to be in the Cup each time, but have yet to make a splash. Slovakia is a mystery, with some talent, and New Zealand is clearly the worst team in the field (is their rugby team playing???)! I feel like my selections here are somewhat of a cop out. I want to go with an upset, but the group is so weak I just have to take the Italians based solely on reputation. Paraguay make finally make noise in the knock out stage. 1st: (AZZURRI) ITALY 2nd: (LA ALBIRROJA) PARAGUAY

GROUP G: Ok, here is the REAL “Group of Death”. Legit mega sides Brazil and Portugal, along with Ivory Coast make up a murderers row of telent and execution. Poor North Korea doesn’t stand a chance. Some of the worlds biggest stars reside in this group: Ronaldo, Ronaldinho, Pato, Diego, Gervinho, Drogba. Amazing talent pool. Clearly the Brazillians are the favorites here, a ridiculous amount of talent, these guys are a pure joy to watch. Between Portugal and Ivory Coast, I like The Elephants here. Even with Drogba injury (he may play with a broken arm), Ivory Coast is much more balanced than Portugal, who essentially are a one man army. I think most will take Portugal here just because of Ronaldo, but futbol is a team sport, Ivory Coast advances (plus, again, the “home soil” element plays in here…). 1st (SELECAO) BRAZIL 2nd: (THE ELEPHANTS) IVORY COAST

GROUP H: Set your DVRs to record EVERY game in this group. I am predicting high scoring, entertaining matches to permeate. Spain is the world’s #1 with Xavi and Villa leading the way. Chile is super aggressive and Honduras loves to run and gun, at the expense of defense. The Swiss made a nice run in 2006 with strong defense. The Swiss could shock here simply because of their defensive mindset. I just don’t think they have the offense to compete. Of course Spain comes out of this group, and I really like Chile to advance and possibley cause major problems in the knock out stage. 1st: (LA FURA ROJA) SPAIN 2nd: (LA ROJA) CHILE

Here is how I see the knock out stage, Round of 16 shaping up. I will predict based on the brackets groupings. Group winners play second-place teams from opposing group.

1A/2B 1C/2D GROUP: I really think England gets a great draw here. Clearly the most talented side in this bracket. Nigeria over France and England over Australia. England over Nigeria to advance to Semi Finals.

1E/2F 1G/2H GROUP: Brazil will come out of this bracket, but a quarterfinals rumble with The Dutch is must see TV. Netherlands over Paraguay and Brazil over Chile. Brazil over Orange to advance to Semi Finals.

1D/2C 1B/2A: I like Argentina to come out of this group over a talented German side. Too much offense in Argentina. Germany over United States and Argentina over Mexico. Argentina over Germany to Advance to Semi Finals.

1F/2E 1H/2G: Here Spain will finally advance and live up to expectations, but not before Ivory Coast and Cameroon press them to the limit. Cameroon over Italy and Spain over Ivory Coast. Spain over Cameroon to advance to Semi Finals.

SEMI FINALS: The amazing pool of talent in the Final Four will be a spectacle. England and Brazil on one side, Argentina and Spain on the other. If you are a sports fan with a pulse, you will watch these matches. As much as I want to see England advance, Brazil is too much. The hype will be amazing, but Brazil will dominate England (who will advance to the Semi’s more on the ease of draw rather than brute strength). Argentina v Spain is a battle-royale. So much talent, passion, I am simply going with my gut here and taking Messi/Milito and the Argentines. Spain is great, and very well could advance to win the whole thing. Again, gut reaction here.

FINAL: BRAZIL V. ARGENTINA: An all South American final will pit the two most talented sides against each other in a spectacle of soccer talent. Somehow I like Argentina here only because I am simply in love with Messi/Milito. The Brazilian talent is unmatched, and they are cool under pressure, but Argentina has the two best players who have a flair for the dramatic, plus Maradona is there to lend a helping hand if necessary (hey oh!). Argentina over Brazil in an epic final.

–Joe

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An Open Letter to Mark Lowe

Dear Mark,

Let me start off by apologizing.  For the past few years I’d been under the impression that you were just another bullpen guy.  Even after you established yourself as a great setup man last year, I still saw you as interchangeable.  I’d think, “Just give me another guy who throws hard and then we might be able to trade Lowe for a valuable prospect.”  At times I would openly question Wak’s decision to bring you in.  Going into this year, I thought you would be surpassed by League and Kelley.  I’m sorry for questioning your ability.  Sometimes even the geeky baseball fans get it wrong.

You’ve had a pretty interesting career.  Watching you jump onto the scene, get injured, become dominant, and then get injured again has been somewhat frustrating but also has brought some good times.  When you first came up you would blow people away with your fastball and then make their knees buckle with that filthy slider.  Having you and Rafael Soriano as our bullpen future was a cause for optimism in down years for the Mariners.  Of course, the front office screwed the whole Soriano thing up but we don’t talk about that.  Then you went on the shelf and no one really knew if you’d come back with the same authority.  But, you did. 

There were many explanations as to why the Mariners were so good in one-run games last year.  Luck, Aardsma, and great defense were just some of the reasons thrown out there.  People might mention your name but they’d hardly give you the credit you deserved.  This year we’ve watched the Mariners stumble through their miserable May and June, losing one-run game after one-run game, without you.  We both know the offense sucks, you have to watch it in person every day and for that I apologize again.  We both know some of your bullpen mates have been awful.  But, if you were there maybe this season would have been a little easier on us all.  Maybe we wouldn’t have blown 8th inning leads.  Heck, maybe you’d be our closer by now.  Now I see that you were one of the key ingredients in our winning formula last year. 

All this to say, it sure would be nice to have you back Mark.  You’ve got this weird nerve problem that no one seems to know about and it’s keeping you out of action.  Hopefully, you wake up tomorrow and it’s gone but I’m not holding my breath.  And please don’t let this all go to your head.  You aren’t going to save the season.  No one is.   I just miss last year.  I don’t like not knowing who’s going to come in to shut the door in the 8th inning.  Kelley can’t get the job done in the last week.  League has had one of the weirdest seasons I’ve ever seen from a bullpen guy.  And I don’t even want to talk about White. 

So, get well soon Mr. Lowe.  I look forward to seeing you pitch again.  Don’t worry if you screw up because us fans are used to that by now.  This injury has really hurt the team but because of it, I now see your worth. 

Sincerely,

Andrew

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Mariners’ Draft Concensus: Good Day!

While it was an ugly day on the field for our baseball team, it was dubbed a good day on the draft front.  I’m not going to pretend to know a ton about the MLB draft.  I started following it last year and have gained some knowledge but not near as much as other websites such as Pro Ball Northwest.  Over the last two years it’s started to grab my interest though.  I like following it as much as I like the NBA or NFL drafts, maybe because I like baseball more. 

As Matthew noted, the Mariners took a small gamble with their first round pick in RHP Taijuan Walker.  For the record, I like the pick.  It makes sense to me, especially when you put it into context with some of the picks today.  Yes, there’s not much buzz about Walker but this was the 43rd pick.  It’s not like we were drafting in the top 10 (we might next year, with the way this season is going).  This wasn’t a strong draft either.

Anyway, here’s a few highlights from today:

  • In the 2nd round (67th pick), we selected Marcus Littlewood.  Many people thought this is where the Mariners would go with their first round pick.  Using basic logic, it’s nice that the Mariners got this guy in the second round when many people thought we’d take him in the first.  Littlewood is a switch-hitting shortstop but most scouts don’t think he has the range to stay there long-term.  I read a few accounts of him having slow feet.  With that being said, he has great hands and great instincts that can make up for being a bit slow.  As far as hitting goes,  Baseball America has him pegged as a .270 hitter with limited power.  10-20 home runs a year should be expected.  Many people feel as if Littlewood was a steal at 67 and most feel as if he’ll be a major league contributor (maybe as a utility guy) at some point in his career.  He doesn’t have star power but he’s solid.
  • In the 3rd round the M’s nabbed Rybe Stanek.  Most draft services had Stanek rated higher than Walker, but Walker had a higher ceiling.  Stanek is said to be a solid Arkansas commit, so we’ll have to buy him out of that.  Since the first two picks won’t break the bank by any means I’m not extremely worried about this.  Stanek is more developed than Walker with cleaner mechanics and a mid-90’s fastball.  He’s already 6’4” and is expected to grow a little more.  The Mariners drafted some really tall people.  If you can’t beat people on the field you might as well beat them in height!  This was a great pick, especially if you were a fan of the Walker pick.
  • The 4th round brought a pleasant surprise.  LHP James Paxton was selected as the 132nd pick.  Really, this is maybe the best pick of the Mariners draft if they can sign him.  Paxton was drafted last year by Toronto in the supplemental round (the round between the 1st and 2nd) last year but they failed to sign him.  Before he was drafted he pitched for the University of Kentucky and was electric.  This year he’s pitched in the independent league and reports have shown more of the same.  His fastball is 91-94 and can reach up to 97 and has a plus curveball to go with it.  He has struggled with a few injuries over his career but our organization has handled young pitchers with injuries pretty well recently (Michael Pineda for instance).  Pro Ball NW say that if Paxton signs he is put into our top 10 prospect list right away.  This is great news for an organization that doesn’t have quality pitching depth. 
  • Stephen Pryor was selected in the 5th round.  He goes to the same college, Tennessee Tech, as my cousin so that’s kind of exciting.  Pryor might move faster than any of this years draftees because he projects as a late inning reliever.  He’s a big right-hander with a fastball that can reach triple digits.  The organization may start him in the rotation but expect him to be in the bullpen if he ever makes the big club.
  • In rounds 6-8 the Mariners grabbed a few position players.  Round 6 brought us catcher Christian Carmichael.  He’s a defensive-first player who’s a switch-hitter.  No one is overly excited about him, as he generally projects to be a backup.  In round 7 the Mariners got Maguire Wiswall, who has the best name of all the draftees.  He’s a first baseman out of Boston College.  I heard someone compare him to Adam Laroche with a little less power.  Jabari Blash (another sweet name) was picked in the 8th round.  He’s an outfielder who has shown great potential but is very raw.  He’s a big boy who needs to hit for power if he wants to make the show.
  • Round 9 brought us our first local product of the draft, RHP Luke Taylor.  Another tall pitcher, 6’6″, who is said to have great mechanics.  Taylor is thought to be a strong commit to Hawaii but maybe the local ties and the money will help persuade him to sign.  In round 10 the M’s selected another pitcher who may move fast through the system in route to the bullpen.  Tyler Burgoon is a right-hander from Michigan with low 90’s fastball and an above-average slider.

The Mariners went on for another 20 rounds after these picks but I’m sure some of you have lost interest already.  All in all, it was a good draft day.  The Mariners selected 20 pitchers out of the 30 picks which will help fill the void that prior GM’s left Jack Z with.  Tomorrow we have Day 3 of the draft which will be rounds 30-50.  While that may not be very interesting, it might be more enjoyable than watching an Ian Snell start.  My goodness, Snell is bad.  Thanks for reading!

Andrew

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M’s Draft Taijuan Walker

The MLB draft was today, and with their first pick, the Mariners selected RHP high schooler Taijaun Walker.  Due to signing Chone Figgins, the Mariners didn’t have a first round pick and selected Walker with the #43 overall.  I hadn’t followed the draft buildup too closely this year since the M’s didn’t have a high pick, but there’s a good chance I wouldn’t have known about Walker if I had.

He’s an extremely athletic pitcher out of California, who throws in the low- to mid-90s currently.  His off-speed stuff and command are spotty at best currently.  He’s 6′ 5″ 200 lbs and apparently a basketball star.  He spent most of his junior year at shortstop but wasn’t really a prospect there.  He showed flashes of big potential at times this year, which is why he was drafted, but wasn’t consistent enough to go higher or even really to be ranked near the top 43 players by most.  Lookout Landing has a better write-up with some compiled scouting reports here.  Larry Stone also has a bit at the Times, with surely more to come.

A lot of peope commenting on the local blogs are unhappy with this pick, and I won’t say they’re wrong, or that it’s a great pick.  I personally have no idea if Walker is any good or if he’ll ever do anything.  Chances are he won’t.  But the chances that he’ll never reach the majors are not much higher than they would be for most guys they could have taken at that spot.  It sounds like they went for a potentially high-level arm who, if he makes it, could be a top of the rotation starter a ways down the road.  That would fill a huge need in the organization.  The chances are greater that he fails or ends up in the bullpen or something.

I do have much more faith in the Mariners scouting department to make this pick than just about any one writing on a Mariner blog.  There are certainly some very knowledgeable writers around, and Jason Churchill at Prospect Insider does a lot of work for ESPN, so he’s something of an exception.  Most of the rest that will weigh in on this pick have seen some video of Walker at best, and at worst have read some scouting reports.  Again, that doesn’t necessarily make them wrong.  It could turn out to be a bad pick.  Many preferred other players they knew more about, and that’s understandable.  But really, very few people know anything about Taijuan Walker, so there’s not much to do except hope the Mariners saw something special in him and can develop that.

Rounds 2-30 are tomorrow, with the 31-50 on Wednesday.  It’s not as much fun to follow as the other sports’ drafts, but there are a lot of players and any number of them could be Mariners in the next few years.  We’ll try to at least direct you to some reviewers who know a little more and give some names to watch.  The Mariners need impact help everywhere, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them keep taking chances in a fairly weak draft.

-Matthew

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One of the Greatest Huskies Ever

Danielle Lawrie’s Husky career came to an end today as the UW softball team lost to Arizona 4-3.  I know that softball isn’t a sport of choice here on this blog but Lawrie put up a career that can’t be ignored.

A two-time national player of the year, she led her team to the national championship last year and back to the college world series this year.  This year she threw 3 perfect games and led the NCAA in wins. 

It was a sad way to end here career this afternoon but that doesn’t take away from the fact that her career is one to be celebrated.  Danielle, thanks for being a Dawg!

Andrew

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A Pac-16?

Stories have surfaced that the Pac-10 has invited 6 teams from the Big-12 to join their conference.  While the conference has talked about possible expansion for a few months now this news kind of came out of nowhere.  This may be a ploy to take away from the attention that USC will get when it receives it’s sanctions tomorrow.  If the teams did move over the conference would be broken up into two different divisions like this:

  • Pac-10 Coastal:  Washington, WSU, Oregon, OSU, Cal, Stanford, USC and UCLA.
  • Pac-10 Mountain (or whatever you want to call it):  Arizona, ASU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Colorado.

Needless to say, this would make the quality of the concert much higher.  It would rival the SEC in all athletics and would probably become the best academic major conference.  There would also be a lot more money to go around.  It’s for these reasons that I’m all for this.  The higher the quality of the conference the more fun it is, in my opinion. 

Do I think it will happen?  No, not really.  I want it to happen but this rumor seems a little out there and would throw college athletics into a whirlwind.  Maybe it’ll happen, maybe not, but either way it’s a fun and smart idea by the Pac-10.  Definitely worth a try.

In other news, the Husky football team picked up their 12th verbal commit for the 2011 class.  Yes, this number is crazy high for it only being June.  Todays commit was Josh Perkins, a receiver from California.  Look for a post about the 12 commits within the next week.  Things are off to a great start for this recruiting class.  It’s a good time to be a Dawg!

Andrew

Edit:  I also forgot to mention the exciting night we have ahead of ourselves.  Hooch, Danielle and the rest of the Husky softball team plays tonight along with Felix Day and the start of the NBA Finals (Go Kobe!).  Should be a fun night. 

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