Monthly Archives: December 2010

by | December 28, 2010 · 5:30 pm

What to Make of the Outcome

If you hadn’t heard, the Huskies have a football game in a few days.  It feels a little bit weird, huh?  It does to me too.  Usually at this time of year, my attention has turned to recruiting and neglecting the fact that my team isn’t in a bowl game but not this year!  This will be the first Huskies bowl game I’ll be able to watch since I was 12 years old.  That alone is reason to celebrate.

But, what kind of celebration will take place on Thursday night depending on the outcomes.  The Dawgs are heavy underdogs to a team that already beat them by 35 points this year.  Yes, the Huskies played probably their worst game of the year (Stanford aside) but they were clearly outmatched by a physical, fast Nebraska team.  Is it reasonable to expect a win?  I’m not so sure.  But, is it reasonable to expect the Huskies to be competitive?  Yes.

Here are 3 possible outcomes for the Huskies and what they’d mean to the program and fans:

  • A blowout loss: This outcome isn’t out of the question at all.  A loss by 21 points or more would be frustrating but, it wouldn’t be all that surprising.  We already saw it happen once.  With that being said, it would diffuse a lot of the momentum the Huskies have.  Just 2 years ago, the Huskies were 0-12 and the football program was dead.  Now, they’re in a bowl game (and to think that Cougar fans are happy with Paul Wulff winning 2 games).  This amazing resurgence would be put under a blanket if the Huskies were blown out.  It wouldn’t be the end of the world, but people who doubt Sark’s ability to fully turn the program around will come out of the hiding they’ve been under for the last month. Remember, Arizona was blown out in the Holiday Bowl last year.  I remember watching that game and thinking about how Arizona fans must have been feeling at the time.  They must have been disgusted.  But, I bet that disgust didn’t last long.  So, again, this outcome would be upsetting and annoying but, it wouldn’t be the end of the world.
  • A close loss: This is where fans start to disagree.  We can all agree that a blowout loss would be disappointing and a win would be great but, a close loss?  There are a few different view points.  One thing you might hear some fans say is, ” They’ve had a month to prepare, anything short of a win is unacceptable”  Frankly, this is a dumb perspective.  Yes, the Huskies had a month to prepare but so did the Cornhuskers.  I don’t like moral victories but this is one game where I actually believe they exist.  A close loss to Nebraska shows a good deal of improvement.  We could earn the respect of a good opponent and put some fear into them before next year’s match-up.  Most of all, it would show a national audience that a once proud tradition is on it’s way back.   This outcome is the one that reflects where the Huskies are, as a program, most of all.
  • A win: Bob Condotta said in a chat today that if the Huskies won it would be one of the biggest upsets since the Whammy in Miami.  At first, you might think that this sounds a little over the top, but think about it.  A win on Thursday gives the Huskies their first 4 game winning streak since 2001.  That is amazing to think about.  It would give the Huskies their first bowl win since the 2001 Rose Bowl.  It would provide all kinds of momentum heading into next year.  And, I would actually have a new trophy to look at when I went into the Husky hall of fame next year.

Yes, the fact that I have the opportunity to write and look forward to a Husky football game at this point are enough for me.  I understand why they aren’t for some people, but it’s all about perspective in my opinion and the fact that the Dawgs’ are in San Diego right now is pretty amazing when we take a minute to think about it.  But, the game has to be played and that outcome could mean quite a bit heading in to the off-season.

Andrew

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by | December 27, 2010 · 11:44 am

Seahawks v Rams for the NFC West title

Playoffs? Playoffs?? You kidding me? Playoffs???

This Sunday the Seahawks host the Rams for the NFC West division title. 6-9 hosting 7-8. Winner gets a home playoff game against either Green Bay, New Orleans, NY Giants or Tampa Bay. All those teams will have 10 or more wins going into the playoffs. I have a random thoughts on all of this.

I think a rule change should be in order, but not right away. I think making a team be at least .500 to host a playoff game is appropriate (Re-seed). I do not like the idea of preventing a team with a sub .500 team from even making the playoffs. The goal each year is win the division, you should be rewarded for that. But be .500 please. If not, you gotta go on the road.

I think all of this hosting a playoff game negative chatter could be moot. Look, Green Bay and New Orleans will beat either Seattle or St. Louis on the road, at home, on the moon, doesn’t matter. So I think all the huffing and puffing is unwarranted. Just a thought.

Draft position is an issue, and probably the biggest debate point. I go back and forth on this one. The difference between winning and losing is 8 draft slots, 13 to 21. That may seem like a lot, and considering the Hawks need a QB, maybe the fans saying lose to get the higher draft position are right. I tend to disagree. Take a look at this link: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/mock. Both Rang and Reuter have the Hawks taking an OT at 13 (if they miss the playoffs). Even if the Hawks win, look at 21, at RB and OT. I think both of those positions are needed, but OT help is huge. Neither have the Hawks taking a QB. I think fans just assume they’ll take a QB, but will one be there at 13 or 21? Who knows. I think the draft is a craps shoot, I don’t like the idea of losing just for draft position. Win or lose the Hawks have a 1st rounder. They could trade up and get Newton, maybe Mallett, or trade for one in the league already like Kobb or Flynn. Or they could just man up and get good at talent evaluation like the Patriots and find diamonds late in the draft while saving money. Personally I like option three (the Patriots are the best organization in football.). Heard this today: Aaron Curry? 4th overall pick with a huge contract on a bad defense, little to no impact. Legarrette Blount? Undrafted rookie 1,000 yard back. Who would you rather have, considering the value? I’d take Blount in a second, even if he is a Duck. Again, the draft is about talent evaluation, not draft position.

Another angle to all of this is the Rams. They, in my opinion, are the best young team in the division. Why? Sam Bradford. He’ll be an all pro very soon. He has all the tools. Now, if the Rams come into Qwest and win, imagine the confidence boost that franchise gets. They were the worst team in the NFL last season, now a division winner, with two wins over Seattle? As a Hawks fan I don’t like the idea of that franchise getting on a roll.

I just want to win a game. A win would then allow the Hawks to host a playoff game. Isn’t that what we all wanted in August? I fully understand and agree this team is frustrating to follow and all things being equal don’t deserve to make the playoffs. Where is the team that beat Chicago on the road in what was, in my view, the best game the Hawks have played in four years? They are in there somewhere. Odd things have happened at Qwest in the playoffs (Tony Romo anyone?), so I think a win and a playoff game would be exciting and interesting for so many reasons.

Finally, here is the bottom line: If Charlie Whitehurst starts, the Hawks will lose. He is the worst QB in the NFL. He’s terrible. He can’t read defenses, he can’t hit an open receiver, he can’t look off defenders, he’s just bad. In order for Seattle to win, Hass must play, even with a bum hip. No Hass, no chance to win, it’s pretty simple. This is most likely Matt’s last stand, so I’d love to see him go out fighting. He deserves it, no one works harder and cares more about the Seahawks than Matt Hasselbeck. Here’s hoping he’ll get a shot in the playoffs.

Joe

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by | December 24, 2010 · 5:52 pm

Who’s Your Gaddy?

The Washington Huskies basketball team is an interesting team to try and figure out (and something we’ll try to figure out more in the coming weeks).  They seem to be a lot like last years team thus far, can’t win on the road and look like they’re a top-10 team at home.  But, I, and I imagine the rest of the good guys, think that this team is better.  One of the reasons for that is Abdul Gaddy.

Last year, Gaddy came to UW as a 17 year old and didn’t live up to expectations.  He was ranked as the number 2 point guard in his recruiting class and was thought to be the player that would take the Huskies to the next level.  He did win a starting job but this was more due to the fact that Overton was more effective coming off the bench than Gaddy being effective as a starter.

Gaddy’s jumper was pretty horrid last year and he seemed to lack quickness.  He did appear to make some progress towards the end of the year, but he was a big question entering the year.

Now, it appears things are different.  Frankly, he looks like a completely different player.  Through 11 games Gaddy has shot 54% from the field and 43% from beyond the arc.  This summer, he was helped out by Ryan Appleby with his shooting, much like Quincy Pondexter last year.  Now, his shot looks almost as natural as anyone’s on the team.

The confidence from his jumper has given the rest of his game life.  He’s put his amazing ball-handling skills on display and finds the open man better than any Husky point guard has since Will Conroy.

In Wednesday’s game against Nevada, Gaddy’s shot wasn’t falling.  He had a few looks from deep where he was pretty open but failed to knock them down.  Last year, that would have been more of the same.  But, this year it was different.  He still had his confidence.  He was still taking the shots and thinking they were going in.  He was still shaking defenders with ease and finding the open man.

My dad always used to tell me that sports were 50% mental, 50% physical.  When you’re talking about the college or professional level this probably is an exaggeration.  But, Gaddy is an example of just how important confidence is.  That confidence makes him fit in with the rest of the team.  And that confidence is the reason why I think these Huskies could make a deep run in March.  Deeper than any Husky team in recent memory.

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by | December 22, 2010 · 12:17 pm

8 Days To A Holiday

Some quick Husky notes as the team prepares to fly out to San Diego:

  • Tight End Chris Izbicki has left the team.  He’s leaving of his own accord, for reasons that aren’t fully clear, as far as I’ve seen.  His lack of production surely factors into the decision.  After Middleton’s dismissal before the year, I thought there was a good chance Izbicki could have a small breakout this year, but it clearly was not to be.  He only had two catches on the year, although one was the glorious Price to Izbicki touchdown early in the year.  Good luck to Chris in whatever he’s planning to do now.
  • While Izbicki was listed as a starter for the Holiday Bowl, the loss isn’t a huge one.  Marlion Barnett has been a bit more of a pass-catching threat, and Daniel Kanzcugowski has played more than either as an extra blocker.  The position should improve greatly in the next couple of years.  Michael Hartvigson would likely have been playing extensive minutes by now if he hadn’t been injured earlier in the season.  Austin Seferian-Jenkins is also likely to have some kind of impact immediately.  From what I’ve heard, he spent much of his high school career split out wide, so he likely has good pass-catching skills.  Given his size (6′ 6″, 260 lbs), if he starts the year in good condition, he could make an immediate difference.
  • The team leaves for San Diego tomorrow, if I remember correctly.  They’ll spend the next week practicing and seeing the sights.  It’s a pretty cool deal for the players, even if they miss Christmas with the family.  I wonder if any of them get upset about that.  A good portion of the team is from southern California though, so it’s good for them, and everyone got a few days to go home in the last week.
  • Recruiting is starting to ramp up as the February Letter of Intent Day is coming.  The most recent commit for the Dawgs is MLB Thomas Tutogi.  He’s a big dude coming from a junior college and will have 4 years to play 3.  Usually with juco guys, they’re there for a reason (grades, character issues), but Tutogi was just not highly recruited out of high school and wanted to try to raise his stock.  He certainly did that, garnering an offer USC as well, among others.  Tutogi has a decent chance to step right into a starting role in the Huskies’ depleted linebacking group.
  • We’ll have more extensive posts on recruiting in the next month, but the big one to keep an eye on for now is DL Danny Shelton, a local kid.  He’s deciding between UW and Oregon, and is the top remaining recruit in the state.  Chat board opinion is that Shelton prefers Oregon while his mom prefers UW, but who knows what the case really is.  It sounds like he’ll announce a decision fairly soon.  Given the fact that UW has three DTs for the bowl game, some playmakers at the spot are crucial in this class.

All for now. 

-Matthew

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by | December 9, 2010 · 7:31 pm

Small Sample Sizes

Player A (over 2 years):

330 Plate Appearances
.176 Batting Average
.218 OBP
.333 Slugging Percentage
.552 OPS
7.43 K/BB ratio
11 HR

Player B:

242 Plate Appearances
.197 Batting Average
.232 OBP
.294 Slugging Percentage
.526 OPS
8.75 K/BB
5 HR

Player A and Player B are very close to the same.  Yes, Player B hit for a higher average but I would argue that Player A is a better offensive player since his OPS is a little higher and he doesn’t strike out quite as much.

Player A is Miguel Olivo and Player B is Adam Moore.  While in Seattle, Miguel Olivo was probably the worst hitter in baseball.  But, the stats show that Adam Moore was just as bad.  Olivo has gotten much better since then.  Seattle was by far his worst stop in the big leagues.  It’s yet to be proven if Adam Moore will develop into anything.

The truth is that all of Seattle has a terrible perception of Miguel Olivo because of a small sample size that is similar to what Moore did last year.  I’m not saying that all of the people who are upset about this move are wrong, but I don’t think this move is worth freaking out about.

I know most of us would like to see if Moore could develop into the top prospect he was.  But, the truth is the Mariners upgraded their catcher position by quite a bit today.  If Olivo is anywhere close to his career norms he will be twice as good as any catcher the Mariners had last year.

People are forgetting about how terrible Mariners’ catchers were last season.  People also forget that, to people in the front office, next year is not a throwaway season.  If the Mariners don’t show drastic improvement Jack Z will be fired sooner rather than later.  The way they have to do this is with small contracts, like the ones they just gave Olivo and Cust.  Yes, you can find a lot of things wrong with signing Miguel Olivo and that is proven by the M’s blogosphere going absolutely crazy (aside from Jeff Sullivan, thanks for your rationale thinking), but the Mariners improved today.

By the way, in the last 2 days, the Mariners signed 2 players that hit a combined 26 home runs last year.  That’s 25% of what the Mariners hit last year.  In 2009, they combined for 48 home runs.  That’s 47.5% of what the Mariners hit last year.  Enough said.

Andrew

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by | December 9, 2010 · 4:29 pm

The Return of Miguel Olivo

The Mariners have just signed catcher Miguel Olivo to a 2 year contract, with $7 mil. guaranteed.  Most Mariner fans might remember Olivo for a brief and disastrous earlier stint with the Mariners, after he was acquired in the Freddy Garcia trade.  He was as bad a hitter in that year plus period as anyone the Mariners have seen recently.

Since then, he’s become a decent catcher.  At the plate, he’s similar to Jose Lopez, with no selectivity, but a little more power and less contact.  He’s going to strike out, and he’s going to hit some homers.  There’s concern that Safeco will completely rob his pull power, which is possible, but it’s one of those things you just have to deal with.  Behind the plate, he gives up some passed balls but has a big arm. 

Olivo’s a legitimate major league starting catcher, and that’s something the Mariners did not have recently.  This isn’t my favorite move, and he might not hit at all, but it could make the Mariners a lot better at a good price, so I’m having a hard time getting worked up about it.

Some other Mariner thoughts, since I rarely have time to post lately (Christmas break is coming!):

  • This move could mean a few things for Adam Moore.  I’ve already seen speculation that he’s automatically a trade chip now.  That would not surprise me a bit, although I have no idea what his value in trade would be.  Not overly high, I would bet.  More likely, I think he’s Olivo’s back-up, catching 50 games or so.  If he progresses and improves, Olivo can be traded.  If he doesn’t, at least they have Olivo.
  • My initial thought on the Jack Cust addition: helpful but unexciting.  He should be a huge improvement to the lineup, but he’s never been one of my favorite players.  A three true outcomes guy with declining power just isn’t my kind of guy.  Still glad to have him over some other options.
  • As everyone knows by now, Jose Lopez is now a Colorado Rockie.  I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he had a solid year this year, but it’s important to remember that this isn’t a bad move even if he hits 30 home runs or something.  He wasn’t going to succeed in Safeco, and sometimes it’s just time to make a change.  You can argue that the Mariners sold way low on him, which is true, but his contract really forced the issue.  I can’t think of another way they could have gone with this.  He was just a bad fit for the park and wore out his welcome on the field.  Best of luck to Jose in the rest of his career, though.  He always seemed like a good guy, and he underwent some horrible personal issues that made it hard not to root for him, even when he was struggling.  I hope he finds some happiness and homers in Colorado or wherever he ends up.

I would expect there’s at least one moderately big trade coming for the Mariners, but we’ll see.  Going out on a limb, I would bet that Zach Greinke is in a Mariner uniform by the start of 2012.  More later when there are some more moves and I’m done with classes for the semester.

-Matthew

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by | December 8, 2010 · 7:56 pm

A Mariners’ Move!

The Seattle Mariners made their first real move of the off-season today, signing Jack Cust to a 2.5 million, 1 year deal.  Dan wrote earlier today about how underwhelming the Mariners off-season had been thus far.  There haven’t been any deals and the rumors have been just as lame.  So, getting an actual bit of news is nice.

Don’t get me wrong, Jack Cust isn’t exactly the most exciting news, especially with the Angels looking like the front-runner for Carl Crawford but I think this was a nice move.  Cust is a left-handed power hitter.  He’s been with the A’s the last few years and has put up solid numbers.  He’s an all-or-nothing type of hitter (like Russell Branyan) who strikes out and walks a ton.

Cust has had a drop-0ff in power the last few years.  His slugging percentages his first two years in the bigs were .504 and .476 (in 2007 and 2008).  The last two years his slugging percentages were .417 and .438.  His home run total has dropped a little bit.  These are the reasons to fear, but there are reasons to expect success.

Cust is a left-handed bat that could do quite well in Safeco.  Signing for 2.5 million is very cheap for a player who would have been the Mariners best power-hitter last year and who will most likely be their best power-hitter this year.  Cust will step into the middle of the lineup and actually give this team at least a little bit of a threat.

Will Cust turn this team around?  No, but he’ll be one of the small pieces that could turn this team back to respectability.  We don’t have much money to spend, but this was a low risk-high reward type of move that we’re used to seeing out of Jack Z.

In other news, the Mariners are reportedly on the verge of signing Miguel Olivo to a 2 year, $7.5 million deal.  When Mariner fans think of Miguel Olivo most come close to throwing up in their mouths, but the truth is he’s not near as bad as we remember.  And, don’t forget that Rob Johnson was our starting catcher a good share of last year.  We’ll have more on this move if it actually happens.  As of now, it’s nothing but rumors.

Believe big!

Andrew

 

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by | December 7, 2010 · 9:29 pm

M’s Quiet at the MLB Winter Meetings

Let me first say that I am a sucker for the annual MLB winter meetings. I love the rumors, love the trades, and the possibility of hearing the Mariners connected to a big name, like Cliff Lee last year. I follow it all on twitter, and I don’t miss a single tweet from the gurus. The winter meetings bring excitement into my life, a lot like the NFL draft. You can make your own judgments of me, but I love this stuff. So now that you see where I’m coming from, as a Mariners fan, you can understand my disappointment with this years’ winter meetings so far. I didn’t expect the M’s to be big players, unlike last year, but Jack typically makes a splash, and I have not heard anything noteworthy. I mean seriously, here’s the few M’s related tweets I’ve seen.

“AL West foes A’s & Mariners seem to be going head to head on at least 2 free agents, RHP Dennys Reyes, a reliever, and C Gregg Zaun.” – John Hickey

“Sources tell me Mariners are targeting Luis Valbuena for need at second.” -Shannon Drayer

“Sources: Strong multi-year interest for FA RHP Kevin Gregg. Offers from RedSox, Pirates, Nationals. Orioles, Mariners also in mix.” -Ken Rosenthal

“Jorge Cantu generating interest in San Diego, Seattle, Arizona.” -Tim Brown

“Rays and Mariners showing interest in free agent LHP Mark Hendrickson.” -Jon Morosi

“Mariners liked Rich Harden as a free agent last off-season — and they are interested now, too.” -Jon Morosi

“The Seattle Mariners have checked in on Eric Chavez as a possible low-risk 1B-3B-DH option if he’s healthy.” -Jerry Crasnick

On the excitement meter, these rate has major duds. I’m glad we aren’t signing guys like Jayson Werth for 7 years and $126 million, but I need something Jack! Last year, the M’s attempted to re-build and compete for the playoffs at the same time; a tricky task to say the least, and it obviously didn’t pan out. I think this year, given the strength of the Rangers and Angels, and the fact that we had the worst record in the AL last year, a major youth movement makes the most sense. Sure, Seattle could conceivably offer a package of Smoak, Pineda, etc. for a pitcher like Zach Greinke, and also sign Carlos Pena or another bat, and put together a pretty competitive team next year. But would that even be enough to challenge in the AL West? Perhaps, but it is probably best to hold onto our blue chips prospects rather than mortgage the future, and make a run in 2012.

I understand the logic, but it’s boring and frustrating. I want the M’s to be good…like NOW. Unfortunately, the waiting must continue. Maybe we will make a couple minor splashes in days to come, but the biggest moves are probably a year away.

-Dan

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