Author Archives: Matthew

by | July 23, 2012 · 8:44 pm

Goodbye Ichiro

In case you somehow missed it, Ichiro was traded to the Yankees today.  In a kind of sad, kind of cool twist, the Yankees are in town, so Ichiro was still in right field at Safeco tonight, but he was wearing pinstripes instead of northwest green.

It’s long been said that the only way Ichiro would be traded is if he requested it, and that proved to be the case.  Several weeks ago, Ichiro approached management and asked them to consider trading him.  He said he realized that the club was getting younger and he is getting older, and that he didn’t feel he has a place on the club for next year.  While he didn’t specifically mention it that I noticed, I’m sure that he also wants to play for a winner in the twilight years of his career.

It’s hard to know how to feel about this.  One of the characteristics that distinguishes humans from other animals is the ability to hold competing ideas simultaneously, and I think that is necessary here.  Ichiro leaving is sad, but it’s not necessarily anything to get mad about.

Ichiro has been my favorite Mariner pretty much since he got here.  He was just so cool and so stylish.  When he was going good he fit the city perfectly: a little aloof, metropolitan, did things his own way.  He modeled for a fashion spread in GQ and made legendary pregame speeches for the all-star game.

He was also the last tie to when the Mariners were good.  Anyone who was around in 2001 will never forget the way he took the league by storm.  He changed every game and was the talk of baseball.  He made the Mariners relevant and exciting.  I think at least part of the sadness of Ichiro leaving comes from the loss of what little identity the Mariners had left.  As long as they had Ichiro, they had something.  Now they’ve lost even that, and there’s no guarantee anyone will fill that hole anytime soon.

There are a few what I would call misconceptions I’ve seen floating around.  The first is that this is a trade made to help the Mariners.  I guess in a way it is, and I’ll talk about that in a minute.  This trade didn’t bring in great prospects or anything, though.  They got two pitching prospects who might someday be major league middle relievers.  That leads to the second misconception.  Trading Ichiro, even for a weak return, is not a failure by the Mariners management.  The only reason he was traded was because he requested it, and he had no trade value due to his play and contract.  This is completely a move made to take care of and reward Ichiro, and for that the Mariners deserve credit, even if it sucks to see him in a different uniform.  In most ways, this trade wasn’t about baseball, and that’s okay.

Bringing Ichiro back next year would have been a mistake.  It was simply time to move on.  No one expected him moving on would happen in this fashion, but it does prevent a potential headache this offseason if Ichiro had wanted to come back.  I was one of those who always thought he’d find a way to play well into his 40s, so his sudden decline is surprising and disappointing.  It’s time for the Mariners to build a winning team, and there was really no way Ichiro could have been part of it.

We’ll all miss you, Ichiro.  Even the last two years, you still had those moments where you did something amazing and brought us to our feet.  Thank you for so many great memories and for making the last ten years of Mariners baseball slightly less painful.  I wish you could have seen the playoffs in Seattle this season, but I’m happy for you that you’ll at least see them in New York.  You will always be a Seattle legend.

-Matthew

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by | July 23, 2012 · 11:56 am

The Mariners Are Good At Some Things

The Mariners are, and have been, terrible.  Maybe they’ll turn the corner soon, but it sure feels like they’re just going to continue losing 90 games a year until the end of eternity.

Let’s give them some credit, though.  For as bad as they are on the field, they do many things right otherwise.  Take, for instance, this story about their response to a young boy who wrote asking if they could help him out with a birthday/Father’s Day present for his dad.  Just go read it.  It’s a great story, and the kid is automatically in the running for Son of the Year.

The Mariners are really good at stuff like this.  They work hard to give fans a great experience and to contribute to the community.  Maybe that’s the norm with all sports teams, I don’t know, but it doesn’t have to be.  Much has been made about the value of a sports team to a community, especially around here with the loss of the Sonics.  Quantifying monetary and economic value is tough, but it’s hard to argue that the Mariners and other teams are anything less than tremendously valuable in countless other ways.

Like many fans, I get tired of the Mariners seemingly putting so much emphasis on the gameday experience while delivering such terrible teams.  I would not be at all sad if this ownership group sold the team tomorrow.  Still, don’t make the mistake of thinking that a great experience and a focus on contributing to the community is bad or detrimental to the actual baseball.  The off the field things are great.

If only the Mariners would realize that a winning team is the biggest part of a great gameday experience.  Then we’d have the best of both worlds.  Thank you, Mariners, for the many things you do.  Now, if you could add winning to the list, it would be much appreciated.

-Matthew

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by | July 11, 2012 · 8:12 pm

The Mariners of the Future: Third Base

I’ll dispense with the lengthy preamble for this one.  Like every other position for the Mariners, third base has good options, questions, and lots of guys with something to prove.  Not sure when I’ll get to the outfielders or how I’m going to tackle that many guys, so you might have to wait a bit for that.  Plus, I’m heading on a long vacation in a couple of days.  Sorry.  Maybe the Mariners will make a trade and clear things up for me in the meantime.

The Rundown

Think of Kyle Seager‘s pro career up to this point as a reverse on the football field.  Unexpected, exciting.  Everyone’s paying attention now, where a few seconds ago the game was a bit on the boring side.  He’s just turned past the line of scrimmage, so that danger of being caught in the backfield for a big loss is avoided, but now he has to make that defensive end who held his gap miss, or else it was just a pretty three yard run.  Seager was a bit unexpected as a third round pick in 2009.  He was the second baseman on Ackley’s UNC team, and most thought that Ackley would move to the outfield in the pros and Seager would stay at second.  Instead, Ackley moved to second, and eventually, Seager to third.

Seager’s hit more than anyone expected.  Early on, he was termed Ackley-lite, but that doesn’t seem so accurate now.  He has surprising power without quite having the eye that Ackley was supposed to have.  He started 2012 on a tear, and despite tapering off some, he’s still been one of probably the three best position players for the Mariners this year.  Right now, he’s an average or slightly wose hitter and a good defender who should only improve.  The player he is now is valuable.  The Mariners could do and have done much worse at third base (see below).  The question now is whether Seager can make that defensive end miss and go for a big gain.  To be a star, he needs to make adjustments and become a constant power threat.  He’s not likely to ever be a huge power hitter, but home runs in the 20s with 40 doubles and a .340 OBP is realistic and would make him one of the best third basemen in the league. Continue reading →

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by | July 7, 2012 · 9:55 pm

The Mariners of the Future: Shortstop

We’re back with a look at the players in the Mariners’ system who could play a role with the big league club in the next few seasons.  Today we look at the shortstops.

Before we look at actual players, let us take a moment to share a few words about that most important of ball-handlers, the shortstop.  Throughout baseball lore, the shortstop has been the lynchpin of the defense, the captain of the infield.  From the first days of little league, the most athletic, best fielder assumes responsibility for that huge patch of land between second and third, and that doesn’t change no matter how far one goes in baseball.  They must cover the most ground and field the most balls.  They have to have lightning for feet, a rocket for an arm, and the grace of a dancer around second base. Aside from the pitcher, the shortstop is the most important person on the field.

For all those reasons, little offense has traditionally been expected of shortstops.  It was enough to do all of the above, and if one could chip in with the bat occasionally, so much the better.  Those who could field the position and hit are legends.  Honus Wagner is still considered the best shortstop of all time, and he played before Babe Ruth.  There have been teams who sacrificed defense to gain some offense at short, but far more often teams have leaned the other way.  It’s always tempting to think that a good hitting shortstop will have a big enough offensive impact to offset weak defense, but the fact that so few managers are willing to play a bad defender is an argument that statistical analysis is hard-pressed to counter. Continue reading →

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by | June 26, 2012 · 7:14 pm

Justin Smoak: He’s (not) So Hot Right Now

This morning, Dave Cameron over at USS Mariner wrote a post that essentially said it’s time to give up on Justin Smoak.  His argument is well researched and laid out, as always.  I don’t always agree with Cameron, but this one’s kind of hard to argue with.

You can read the post and form your own opinions.  I’m in favor of giving Smoak more time, at least into the first half next year, but my hope is wearing thin as well.  The Mariners should definitely be thinking about replacements, as I’m sure they are.  Getting Mike Carp healthy and hitting would be a good start.

Cameron’s post got me thinking about something else, though.  Smoak has been very good at times.  Not very many times, but the beginning and end of 2011, May this year, he was the type of first baseman with which a team can fight for the pennant.  Obviously, the problem is that those hot streaks are vastly outnumbered by his cold streaks, and when Smoak is cold, he’s ice cold.

The  question that came to mind is, why do players even have hot and cold streaks.  More importantly, when do we look at hot streaks as a sign of what should be expected as a player matures?  Streaks can be the product of circumstances, or maybe of being “in the zone”, as they say.  I don’t think there are any generalizations to be made on hot streaks.  They’re just one of those weird sports things.  Sometimes a player is feeling it, sometimes they’re not.

A streak can be a streak, or it can be a glimpse of the future.  What’s difficult with a younger streaky player like Smoak is when you have to decide whether the hot streaks or cold streaks are closer to his true ability.  He clearly has the talent or physical tools to be an all-star level bat.  His hot streaks have proven that.  The question is whether he needs that extra bit of oomph, that whatever it is that players feel when they get hot, to reach that level.

As Mariner fans, we have to hope not.  We need Smoak to grow and improve to the point where that upper level he occasionally reaches becomes closer to his normal level of production.  He needs consistency, and some good luck.  He also seems to need to get the voices out of his head.  Confidence doesn’t appear to be one of Smoak’s attributes.

Whatever the issues, the Mariners are running out of time to see what Smoak can become.  His hot streaks need to become his normal level of production.  As much as I want it to happen, I’m not holding my breath.

-Matthew

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by | June 25, 2012 · 7:41 pm

The Mariners of the Future: Second Base

We seem to be alternating between barren and loaded positions with this series.  That should continue until the outfield.  Next up is the loaded second base.

The Rundown

Dustin Ackley is still a pivotal piece in the Mariners’ rebuilding effort.  He’s not performing well this year, but that’s not uncommon for someone in his position.  He has some clear mechanical issues at the moment and seems to be struggling to make adjustments.  I’d expect these to be ironed out at some point soon.  It’s still unclear where Ackley will end up offensively.  His recent struggles have tempered the Chase Utley comparisons, but that level isn’t impossible.  He should still be at least an above-average, allstar level bat most years.  He needs to be that, for everyone’s sake.  What isn’t a huge issue is his defense.  After meeting a lot of skepticism while learning the position, he’s become a solid if unspectacular defender.  To my eyes, he’s improving and has the skills to be at least slightly above-average. Continue reading →

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by | June 24, 2012 · 7:19 pm

The Mariners of the Future: First Base

After looking at the interesting and fairly loaded catcher position yesterday, we move to the grassless pastures of first base.  Once past the big league roster, which is bare enough, most of the future first basemen in the organization are likely to be moved from other positions.  Most of the current first basemen in the minors are not really prospects for one reason or another.

The Breakdown

It’s too much to say the position begins and ends with Justin Smoak, but he is still the primary hope for 1B production.  We could write posts for days about Smoak.  I’m a big supporter, or have been in the past, but time is clearly running out.  There are plenty of big time prospects that take a long time to find themselves in the majors, so there’s still hope.  The question is how long the Mariners can wait for him to become that player.  Given the current state of the team and the lack of better options, they can keep waiting for a while, but Smoak needs to show some consistency before this season ends. Continue reading →

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by | June 23, 2012 · 11:29 am

The Mariners of the Future: Catcher

The Mariners are in a weird spot right now.  They’re inconsistent and pretty bad more often than not, but then they run off a hot streak every so often.  They have mostly young talent with promise.  The problem is that few of those guys are performing in a way that cements them as a future Mariner.  Even fewer have the type of elite talent where they should be penciled into future line-ups regardless of current production.  When you add in the minor leaguers, the roster is becoming a logjam of guys with unclear talent levels.

I’d expect we’ll start to see some changes, perhaps as soon as the trading deadline.  It’s possible that any of the few veterans on the team might be traded, but what will be more interesting is if Jack Zduriencik packages a few guys to get more proven performers.  This roster has too many unproven, promising players that need to be made into a cohesive, productive roster.

With all that in mind, this is a good time to look at the players that might figure into the Mariners’ plans over the next few years.  I’m going to take this position-by-position and just run through some names, with my opinion of how I’d lay out the roster, if I have one.

Catcher is first up.  A year or two ago, catcher was the most talent-starved position in the system.  That’s been almost completely reversed now.  In about a year, the Mariners have drafted about seven catchers with promise and traded for Jesus Montero and John Jaso.  That’s a pretty good influx.  Still, there’s no definite catcher for the future due to shortcomings for each of them.  Here’s the rundown: Continue reading →

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