Author Archives: Matthew

by | July 1, 2010 · 5:15 pm

Jack Z’s Goal

I’m amazed at the variety and ferocity of the opinions expressed about the Russell Branyan trade.  Some people (myself included) are happy about it, some people think it’s the sign that Jack Zduriencik is overmatched in his job and is working on borrowed time. 

I shared my thoughts in an earlier post, so I won’t go into a lot of detail again.  People are certainly entitled to their opinions, but the railing against the trade sounds to me like a lot of frustration from a losing season, and possibly frustration that this move didn’t happen sooner.  I certainly understand that.  I do think that teams and players place a lot more weight in wins in a lost season than fans do, however.  When you start reeling off 90-loss seasons too often, it’s easy to lose respectability as a franchise.  Younger players in those situations often seem to develop into much less than what was expected of them.  I can’t think of a way to study if that’s true, but I think anyone who’s played sports even somewhat competitively will agree that learning to win is a real process, and any chance to to start on that or keep it going is important, at least in my mind.  The Mariners made a nice break in a losing culture last year.  Finding respectability again this year could be important.

All that isn’t really the reason for this post, however.  Continue reading →

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by | June 26, 2010 · 10:36 pm

Better Without Cliff Lee?

Right this second, Cliff Lee is the best pitcher in baseball.  His numbers are ridiculous, and beyond the numbers, he’s dominant in a way that has to be seen to be understood.  We often joke that Ichiro can hit the ball exactly where he wants to at any time.   I think Cliff Lee’s at the point where he can do anything he wants on the mound.  Wednesday night, he gave up two doubles in a row with no outs and didn’t give up a run in the inning.  Granted, one of the doubles was a bloop where the Mariners forgot to cover second, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this was the first time in history where a team had two consecutive doubles, without someone being thrown out on the bases, yet couldn’t score in the inning.  He’s ridiculous.  Need a strikeout?  Not a problem.  Want a pop-up for fun?  Here you go, Wilson Brothers!

I would be very happy if the Mariners signed Lee to a 5 year $125 million contract tomorrow.  They could go to $150 mil. and I’d be happy.  Unfortunately, the chances of that happening are extremely small.  In all likelihood, he’ll be traded in the next couple of weeks.  If we’re lucky as fans, he’ll be in Seattle long enough to start the all-star game in a Mariners hat, but even that’s doubtful.

We’ll have a goodbye post when he’s actually gone, though.  The point of this post is to examine if it’s possible for the Mariners to get better by trading Lee.  I’m not talking about in future years, either.  A trade has to make them better in 2011 and beyond or else it’s a bust.  Which isn’t out of the realm of possibility.  What I’m wondering is if the Mariners can become a better baseball team in 2010 with whatever they get back in a Cliff Lee trade. Continue reading →

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by | June 26, 2010 · 10:07 pm

Russell Branyan is Back!

If you haven’t heard yet, the Mariners just traded for Russell Branyan.  They gave up two prospects: Ezequiel Carrera, a slap-hitting speedy outfielder, and Juan Diaz, a decent-glove small-stick shortstop.  If either of them develops into more than a bench bat in the bigs, it will be a surprise.

Some of the local Mariners blogs are trying to figure out the point of this trade and are claiming it’s hard to understand.  I understand their perspective, but I think it’s pretty easy to understand.  The Mariners had the worst collection of first basemen I’ve ever seen.  They don’t anymore.  It seems pretty simple.  Sometimes you just have to get better in whatever way you can.

As amateur analysts and wannabe GMs, we tend to oversimplify.  When the Mariners are clearly out of contention, as they are now, we focus on how to get better for the next season.  The real management doesn’t have that luxury.  They have to sell tickets, and Russell Branyan helps do that.  He’s a name that I would bet many fans associate with last year’s season, and on top of that he brings some power, which is sorely needed and a lot more entertaining than what we’ve seen so far.  After missing most of the first month of the season, Branyan has played in just over 50 games and is already at 1.2 WAR, better than any Mariner except for Guti and Ichiro.  He has 10 homers, 3 more than Milton’s team-leading 7. 

There’s the argument that the M’s should be giving playing time to younger players to see what they’re capable of.  But who exactly are these young guys that Branyan is stealing time from?  Carp is bad.  Kotchman is the worst hitting first baseman I’ve ever seen.  They could possibly trade for someone, but if Jack Z. has the opportunity to trade for a younger first baseman/DH with potential, Branyan’s not going to stop him.  He’s a good stop-gap who could possibly factor into the future if needed

My first response on hearing about this trade was, “Great, someone who’s actually fun to watch!”  It doesn’t have to mean something big and important.  It’s just a move to make this team better.  Not good enough to magically chase down the Rangers, but better.  The more you lose, the harder it is to turn things around the next year.  This team has plenty of room for Russell The Muscle and his home runs.

-Matthew

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by | June 18, 2010 · 4:43 pm

The Big Questions Summer Update

Back before the Huskies started Spring Practice, we put together a list of questions that we thought were key to the 2010 season.  Now that the expansion chaos has calmed slightly, let’s look back and see if we have any new answers.
  1. Can the offense become a consistent threat? I don’t think spring showed anything that would make us think otherwise.  Jake and the receivers looked as good as we expected, maybe better.  The offensive line, with Senio Kelemete at left tackle and a lot of experience everywhere else, gave hope for a bust-out year.  With Polk out, Cooper and Callier showed that they’ll be at least back-up threats this year.  The only concerns at all are fullback, back-up QB and maybe Middleton, who didn’t take the step forward that would have been great to see.  But the fact remains, if Jake’s healthy, this unit should be tough.
  2. Can the Dawgs field a defensive line that will stop anyone?  Injuries were a major problem for this group, as it was shorthanded to start and always seemed to have at least one addition member out.  Everyone should be back healthy for the season though, so we’ll just have to wait and see once they have a full group and the incoming frosh on the field.  One plus: Elisara played a lot of DE and looked solid, which will help with versatility, if nothing else. 
  3. Will quality depth emerge on offense? As mentioned above, the offensive depth looked much improved this spring.  The running backs might have fewer bodies, but the ones they have are better and more versatile than in recent years.  Receiver looked to be in good shape but actually suffered some injuries and could possibly need a freshman to play.  The top four or so look great, however.  Izbicki passed Middleton on the depth chart and they’re a solid tandem.  The line isn’t as deep as we’d like yet, but again, it looks better than any line in recent memory.  The back-up QB’s were shaky, as was expected.
  4. Can the defense take the next step?  It’s tough to say on this, with the line such a mish-mash.  The linebackers looked good and the safeties were much improved.  The corners looked like a very deep group, even with Trufant out.  It’ll all depend on the line, but there’s definitely promise here.
  5. Will special teams find any playmakers?  Special teams is the one thing that’s not practiced much, at least in scrimmages, so I don’t have a good answer for this.  The presence of the freshman is a positive, so we’ll keep our fingers crossed.
  6. Will we see any changes in Nick Holt’s defensive game-calling in his second year? This is tough to call as well.  It seemed like there were a few more blitzes in what I watched, but that could be my imagination.  Between keeping schemes vanilla so as not to give away much and the practices being more geared toward fundamental improvement, we won’t really know this until games start.
  7. Who will emerge at safety and linebacker?  Safety was maybe the most improved position on the team this spring.  Nate Williams missed some time with injury, but looked much-improved.  I saw the other day that he’s dropped his 40 time from the 4.7s to the 4.5s, which is huge.  The real positive was the battle between Nate Fellner and Will Shamburger at the other spot.  Both showed big improvement and should battle for the job, along with Justin Glenn.  At linebacker, the Foster-Dennison due looked like the strength of the defense.  Alvin Logan, Matt Houston, and Victor Burnett all had their moments competing for the other spot, although Victor Aieywa might have the lead over all of them this fall.
  8. How much of the team’s success is dependent on Jake Locker?  How far can he lead them?  In a word, still pretty much all of it.  This team is good enough to win a few without Locker, but with him healthy for the full season, I think they have a good shot at one of the top three Pac-10 bowl games, especially with USC out.

The team recently started their summer workouts, which are “voluntary”, and the rest of the freshman will report in the middle of July.  It sounds like Chris Young and Darius Waters, two linebackers, are the only possible academic casualties.  Cross your fingers, because they’re not two we want to lose, especially Young.  Husky specific news (non-expansion will probably be sparse until August, with the exception of the occasional fluff piece from the beat writers about how much stronger a certain player has gotten or how the team is really bonding this summer.  That leaves plenty of time for the Good Guys to cover the exciting Mariners season.  Lucky us.

Have a good weekend everyone.  Go Dawgs!

-Matthew

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by | June 15, 2010 · 4:48 pm

The Real Downside to No Pac-16

Surely everyone’s heard by now that the much-discussed Pac-16 is dead, as Texas, followed by their fellow Big 12 boys, rejected the Pac-10’s invitation.  It’s kind of a weird move on Texas’ part, since the Big 12 will now have 10 teams, which takes away a conference title game.  They’ll be fine though.  I’d probably rather have a Pac-10 than a Pac-12 with Colorado and Utah, but it does allow a championship game, which brings in some money.  Some new blood will be fun too, at least for a while.  I have a pretty good feeling this will all be revisited in a couple of years anyway, so it might not be the Pac-12 for long.

Anyway, I’m fairly ambivalent about how the whole thing worked out, except for one thing. Ever since these rumors started flying, I’ve been getting excited about the chance to visit Austin.  Austin is probably at the top of the list of places I’d really like to visit but probably never will because I don’t have enough money to often randomly visit places like Austin.  For some reason, Austin has taken over as America’s mecca of cool, at least outside of New York (and this might only be in my mind).  I was really looking forward to flying down with Andrew and my wife if I could talk her into it and anyone else who wanted to come, watching the Huskies lose to UT, eating some barbecue, and hopefully getting lucky and catching Spoon or Okkervil River playing a hometown show.  A UW-UT game was the perfect excuse, and would have been a blast to see even on it’s own.  I guess it wasn’t meant to be.

Thanks for ruining my dreams, Texas!

-Matthew

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by | June 14, 2010 · 7:37 pm

Wait ‘Til Next Year- Outfield & DH

Since I started this little series, the Mariners looked a little better a couple of times and then lost a bunch a couple of times. At this point, the season’s pretty well over.  USS Mariner just had a good post about 2011, and the gist of it is Dave Cameron counts only 10 positions where the team should have no worries for the 2011 roster.  I’ve come to about the same conclusion through these posts.  The last group to cover is the outfield and designated hitter, half of which is the strength of the offense, but the other half has as much instability as any part of the team.

2011 Outfield

Ichiro

Franklin Gutierrez

Milton Bradley

Michael Saunders

I’m going to go into a little more depth on the minor leaguers this time, or at least until I get bored.

Currently at Triple-A Tacoma:

Greg Halman:  The man with probably the most athletic potential in the system, it’s looking more and more likely he’ll never put it together.  The quick overview: often compared to Alfonso Soriano, Halman has huge power but strikes out at an incredible rate.  A really incredible rate.  He could cut that rate in half and it would still be really high.  Supposedly he’s solid defensively, at least in a corner, but not really a standout there.

Ezequiel Carrera: Came over in the Putz trade, probably a fourth outfielder-type.  Very quick, but doesn’t quite have the game changing speed that might get him a full-time job in the Juan Pierre style.  Solid defensively, as you might expect, and that should get him a reserve job at some point.  Good on-base numbers, but no power, which has prospect watchers worried his OBP will drop when he moves up and faces pitchers who won’t be afraid to throw him strikes.

Mike Wilson:  Former college football linebacker who remains solid muscle.  Similar to Halman in the power and strikeouts area, but on a slightly smaller scale.  Doesn’t hit for much average.  Could probably come up and pop a few while taking a few walks, but it’s doubtful he’ll ever be a regular.  Also has a habit of getting injured a lot.

Other guys in the minors:

Carlos Peguero: Double-A.  Got everyone excited with a monster first month of the season, but has tailed off since.  Again, similar to Halman, tons of power, strikeouts, contact and defense are an issue.  He could pull it together, and the raw power is maybe the best in the system, but he’s still a longshot to ever help the big club.

Dustin Ackley: Double-A.  See the infield edition of this series for more, because he’s currently playing 2B, and will likely stay there.  Mostly thought of as an outfielder when drafted though, so he might end up back there if that’s where he’s needed.  Unlikely though.

Potential Losses

Ryan Langerhans: I assume he’s out of options or free agency eligible, but not a big deal either way.

Milton Bradley:  He’s signed for next year, but if he slumps in the second half, I could see the team releasing him and eating his salary.

2011 Designated Hitter

Milton Bradley

I won’t go through the trouble of listing a bunch of guys here, because it could be anyone.  See the Everidge, Nelson, Carp 1B group from the infield post especially.  There aren’t any great options here though, outside of Bradley.  Someone could surprise, but there’s no legitimately huge bat knocking at the door.

Potential Losses

Mike Sweeney

Analysis

Ichiro and Franklin are obviously the offensive/defensive strength of the team right now and will continue to be so.  A lot will depend on what Bradley and Saunders do the rest of this season.  I’m sure the Mariners would love to have them starting next year at DH and left, respectively.  I wouldn’t be totally surprised if that happens, either.  Saunders is showing flashes.  His story wouldn’t be the first of a talented but not elite prospect struggling mightily and then putting it together over the next couple of seasons.  It’s hard to say what his upside would be at this point.  He reminds me of Shin-soo Choo, both in career path and the skillset he offers.  I’d say he’s definitely worthy of a near-regular role the rest of the season, unless the Mariners can get a really high level outfield prospect for Lee or something.

Everyone kind of knows where Bradley stands.  Personally, I don’t think he’s done and I see him improving throughout this year after that horrendous start.  If that happens, he’s a good option for DH or left, preferably DH.  Whatever the case with those two, the Mariners have to find a big power bat for either first, DH, or left.  Maybe it’s a young blue chip prospect, or maybe they go all in after a Prince Fielder type.  I’ll leave that up to Jack Zduriencik to figure out.  But with this team’s current make-up, I don’t think they can win anything without a true middle of the order bat at one of those spots.

-Matthew

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by | June 7, 2010 · 8:55 pm

M’s Draft Taijuan Walker

The MLB draft was today, and with their first pick, the Mariners selected RHP high schooler Taijaun Walker.  Due to signing Chone Figgins, the Mariners didn’t have a first round pick and selected Walker with the #43 overall.  I hadn’t followed the draft buildup too closely this year since the M’s didn’t have a high pick, but there’s a good chance I wouldn’t have known about Walker if I had.

He’s an extremely athletic pitcher out of California, who throws in the low- to mid-90s currently.  His off-speed stuff and command are spotty at best currently.  He’s 6′ 5″ 200 lbs and apparently a basketball star.  He spent most of his junior year at shortstop but wasn’t really a prospect there.  He showed flashes of big potential at times this year, which is why he was drafted, but wasn’t consistent enough to go higher or even really to be ranked near the top 43 players by most.  Lookout Landing has a better write-up with some compiled scouting reports here.  Larry Stone also has a bit at the Times, with surely more to come.

A lot of peope commenting on the local blogs are unhappy with this pick, and I won’t say they’re wrong, or that it’s a great pick.  I personally have no idea if Walker is any good or if he’ll ever do anything.  Chances are he won’t.  But the chances that he’ll never reach the majors are not much higher than they would be for most guys they could have taken at that spot.  It sounds like they went for a potentially high-level arm who, if he makes it, could be a top of the rotation starter a ways down the road.  That would fill a huge need in the organization.  The chances are greater that he fails or ends up in the bullpen or something.

I do have much more faith in the Mariners scouting department to make this pick than just about any one writing on a Mariner blog.  There are certainly some very knowledgeable writers around, and Jason Churchill at Prospect Insider does a lot of work for ESPN, so he’s something of an exception.  Most of the rest that will weigh in on this pick have seen some video of Walker at best, and at worst have read some scouting reports.  Again, that doesn’t necessarily make them wrong.  It could turn out to be a bad pick.  Many preferred other players they knew more about, and that’s understandable.  But really, very few people know anything about Taijuan Walker, so there’s not much to do except hope the Mariners saw something special in him and can develop that.

Rounds 2-30 are tomorrow, with the 31-50 on Wednesday.  It’s not as much fun to follow as the other sports’ drafts, but there are a lot of players and any number of them could be Mariners in the next few years.  We’ll try to at least direct you to some reviewers who know a little more and give some names to watch.  The Mariners need impact help everywhere, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them keep taking chances in a fairly weak draft.

-Matthew

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by | June 2, 2010 · 4:57 pm

Wait ‘Til Next Year- Infield

Yes, Griffey just retired.  See Andrew’s post below, and I’m sure we’ll have more coming later.  I’ve had this almost finished for about a week and finally have a chance to finish it, so here you go.  There’s a good chance Carp or one of the other first base guys gets called up replace him, so pay attention there.  Or it could be Hannahan or a reliever, I guess. 

And poor Armando Gallaraga.  That was absolutely terrible.

The Seattle Mariners infield is a mess.  There’s really no way around it.  I’m going to spare everyone any preamble here and jump right into analysis.  Again, current 25-man roster guys signed for next year in bold, minor league depth below that.

2011 Catcher

Rob Johnson

Adam Moore

Josh Bard and Eliezer Alfonzo are the only other catchers currently on the 40-man roster.  Despite their recent power outbursts, these types of guys are a dime a dozen.  You call them up when your regular catchers are hurt, and they can probably do fine for a bit.  If you’re lucky you get a hot streak.  I’ll take Bard over Alfonzo, if anyone’s asking. The closest thing to a prospect in the minors is probably Travis Scott, but he’s not much of one and is still at High-A ball.  No help is on the way, in other words.

Potential Losses

Josh Bard:  Unless he has some monster year the rest of the way and there are a lot of teams interested in him after the season, I’m sure the Mariners could resign him for a major league minimum deal or close to it if they wanted.  All of the same goes for Alfonzo.

Analysis

This position is in bad shape, as any Mariner fan could tell you.  Bard looks like the best of the bunch right now (assuming his injury doesn’t keep him out long), but he’s nothing incredible.  I’ve pretty well written off Johnson at this point, and I get the feeling that the Mariners aren’t too far behind, judging by their comments before Moore got injured.  If only he could learn to catch the ball, he’d probably be a fine back-up/half-time starter.  Moore is still the big hope here.  He’s looked terrible until the two games before he got hurt, but I wouldn’t rule out some progress over the second half of the season.  Within the organization, he’s really the Mariners only chance at finding a catcher better than Bard anytime soon.  A lack of progress from Moore and a bad showing from Bard could very well lead to a new starting catcher in the system, whether a free-agent veteran or a younger guy coming in a trade.

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