Category Archives: Huskies Basketball

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by | December 30, 2010 · 4:19 pm

Myth Busting: Pac-10 Hoops Conference Road Records 2002-2010

Last night the Huskies defeated USC on the road in a tough, hard fought win. Afterwards, via news recaps, radio, other fans, I kept hearing how this was a great win because it’s a road win, and well, it’s assumed the Huskies don’t win on the road. As I listened to all of this, something was nagging at me: Aren’t the Huskies a decent road team? Aren’t they good enough? They win road games, and yet every time they do, people act as if they have NEVER won a road game, and now it just has become a mantra, “Romar can’t win on the road” and so forth. Because of this I decided to roll up my sleeves and get into the stats, because the stats don’t lie.

The sample set is the years 2002-2003 through last season, 2009-2010. These are the 8 full years Romar has been at the UW. I am looking at only in conference road records. That’s 72 road games for each team, 9 games a year for 8 years.

Here is an Excel spreadsheet I cooked up with all the details. It’s in Google Docs, so feel free to open and look at it, my comments below make more sense if you are looking at the spreadsheet at the same time. Here are the results:

School – Win % – Win-Loss

Arizona – 56% – 40-32
UCLA – 56% – 40-32
Stanford – 46% – 33-39
California – 44% – 32-40
WASHINGTON – 43% – 31-41
Arizona St – 37% – 27-45
Wash St – 36% – 26-46
USC – 33% – 24-48
Oregon – 31% – 22-50
Oregon St – 18% – 13-59

As you can see, the Huskies are right in the middle, but in the upper half. Stanford, Cal and UW are essentially tied, with Arizona and UCLA by themselves at the top and the Oregon schools in the cellar. Here are some of my observations:

The Huskies overall record on the road is not .500, but it’s not terrible either. There are only two schools out of ten in the last eight years who have an above .500 record on the road in the league. That tells me it’s hard to win on the road. So hovering around .500 on the road isn’t a bad thing, it’s just normal. (as an aside, Arizona and UCLA had some insanely good seasons early/mid in the decade, including an undefeated season by Arizona in 2003, so those years do throw the sample off a bit, just keep that in mind, those seasons are anomalies).

The Huskies, right now, are more talented than the four teams in front of them on this list, so going forward I expect these numbers to change positively for the Dawgs (last night’s win helps).

The five teams behind the Dawgs on this list are, in a word, terrible on the road in conference (ASU is bucking the trend the past two seasons, but on the whole they aren’t that good, and I expect them to stink this year). Of the 40 combined seasons these teams have played, only 5 seasons have resulted in an above .500 record on the road. That’s bad. Those types of numbers deserve criticism. Oregon and Oregon St are historically bad, Wazzu had two great season under Tony Bennett, and USC is just, well, USC, I have no idea what to say about them (their fans don’t care, why should I?). The upshot? The UW isn’t as bad as the majority of the league on the road.

To focus more on the Huskies, in the 8 years Romar has been head coach, the Dawgs have made the Big Dance 5 times. In those 5 years, the Huskies were above .500 on the road in conference 4 times. The exception was last year at 44%, but that number doesn’t tell the whole story because they finished the year winning 3 straight on the road, and then 3 more on a neutral court in the conference tourney. So away from home, in conference, last year, they were 7-5. The other three years when they did not make the tourney? Terrible. 3-6 and two 1-8 records. But those teams were not very good overall. They were imbalanced, young and incomplete teams that struggled. The upshot? When the Huskies are good, and I mean NCAA Tourney good, they are good on the road, they do not struggle in conference. They win the games they need to win on the road, then take care of business at home. When they are bad? Well, they are bad on the road. It’s not a big surprise, so why do people act as if they are bad when in fact they are good?

Overall the above point supports the broader data set. Of all the teams with above .500 records on the road in league over the past 8 years, all but one made the NCAA’s. The one not to make it was last year’s ASU Sun Devil team that was snake bit by an historically bad Pac-10 season nationally. Of the teams with sub .500 records on the road in conference that made the NCAA’s, 4 had to win the Pac-10 tourney to get in, most likely they would not have made the NCAA’s without the automatic bid. There are some exceptions, but on the whole, if you are good enough to be above .500 on the road in conference, you are good enough to make the NCAA’s.

The point I am trying to make here is the obvious fact that if a team has enough talent to make the NCAA’s, they will win on the road in conference. The years the Huskies had that talent, they won on the road. The years UCLA went to all those Final Fours? They won on the road. Arizona is always pretty good, so they obviously win on the road. But when a school has a bad team with sub par talent, wins on the road are by far the hardest to come by.

I think there is a notion among Dawg fans that even when Romar has a really good team, they can’t win on the road. That’s a myth that needs busting. You can make the same argument for any other school in the league, and probably nationally. UCLA can’t win on the road without Kevin Love. Arizona can’t win on the road without Lute Olson. Stanford can’t win on the road with Johnny Dawkins as head coach, and so on. This problem is not unique to the UW and I think it’s unfair to hang this stigma around Romar’s neck as if he’s the only coach/program with this problem. It’s a basic truth of sports: Superior talent = wins. Wins on the road are the hardest types of wins, so superior talent is needed to succeed away from home. Look at the top two teams on the list above, Arizona and UCLA. I don’t need to tell you how talented those two programs have been the past decade. Multiple Final Fours and loads of lottery picks. Of course they won on the road. The Huskies have had talented teams but nowhere near those two, so why expect the Huskies to be just as good? I think frankly the Dawgs have always played to their talent level on the road, just like everyone else.

I’m sure I am missing some trend in the data that helps clarify things, but you can look at my spreadsheet and decide for yourself. I am trying to bust a myth that I am honestly tired of hearing from people who should know better (some of them are getting paid to cover or follow the team). I know fans can and do believe things someone else repeats and they they just blindly repeat it not caring if it’s true or not. I know it can be frustrating, especially in the past, when the Dawgs would lose a road game they should have won. I understand that. But lets not let a handful of games cloud how we view this program as a whole, which in line with their talent, have been good on the road, relative to the rest of the conference. (I love high expectations, I want them to win every road game, I want this program to be on top of this list in a few years, so don’t accuse me of being a nancy fan with my nerd machine. The UW is my alma mater, I’m a Dawg for life, I’ll always be disappointed when they lose and glad when they win).

It’s worse elsewhere, you could be Oregon or Oregon St…

-Joe-

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by | December 29, 2010 · 1:38 pm

Huskies +/- vs. Nevada

I had meant to put this up for a while, but never got around to it.  For every Husky basketball game that’s on TV from here on out, I will try to put up the +/- for each player.  +/- is an interesting stat for basketball because the sport is so dependent on all 5 players on the court.  I’ll try to add up the stats throughout the season.  Anyway, here are the numbers.  (Venoy Overton was out for this game).

Isaiah Thomas: +37
Abdul Gaddy: +20
Justin Holiday: +31
Aziz N’Diaye: +6
MBA: +35
Darnell Gant: +12
C.J. Wilcox: +12
Scott Suggs: +10
Terrance Ross: +11
Brendan Sherrar:  -6
Antoine Hosley:  -6

This seems about right.  Thomas was easily the best player on the court against Nevada and that shows in this stat.  MBA was the player that benefited most from Thomas and Gaddy passing inside.  He missed so many lay-ins but also was in charge of the post.  I’m not sure why Aziz’s numbers are so low, he played a pretty good game.

I probably won’t be able to do this for tonight’s game, since it’s on the radio, but I will do the UCLA game on Friday.

Andrew

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by | December 24, 2010 · 5:52 pm

Who’s Your Gaddy?

The Washington Huskies basketball team is an interesting team to try and figure out (and something we’ll try to figure out more in the coming weeks).  They seem to be a lot like last years team thus far, can’t win on the road and look like they’re a top-10 team at home.  But, I, and I imagine the rest of the good guys, think that this team is better.  One of the reasons for that is Abdul Gaddy.

Last year, Gaddy came to UW as a 17 year old and didn’t live up to expectations.  He was ranked as the number 2 point guard in his recruiting class and was thought to be the player that would take the Huskies to the next level.  He did win a starting job but this was more due to the fact that Overton was more effective coming off the bench than Gaddy being effective as a starter.

Gaddy’s jumper was pretty horrid last year and he seemed to lack quickness.  He did appear to make some progress towards the end of the year, but he was a big question entering the year.

Now, it appears things are different.  Frankly, he looks like a completely different player.  Through 11 games Gaddy has shot 54% from the field and 43% from beyond the arc.  This summer, he was helped out by Ryan Appleby with his shooting, much like Quincy Pondexter last year.  Now, his shot looks almost as natural as anyone’s on the team.

The confidence from his jumper has given the rest of his game life.  He’s put his amazing ball-handling skills on display and finds the open man better than any Husky point guard has since Will Conroy.

In Wednesday’s game against Nevada, Gaddy’s shot wasn’t falling.  He had a few looks from deep where he was pretty open but failed to knock them down.  Last year, that would have been more of the same.  But, this year it was different.  He still had his confidence.  He was still taking the shots and thinking they were going in.  He was still shaking defenders with ease and finding the open man.

My dad always used to tell me that sports were 50% mental, 50% physical.  When you’re talking about the college or professional level this probably is an exaggeration.  But, Gaddy is an example of just how important confidence is.  That confidence makes him fit in with the rest of the team.  And that confidence is the reason why I think these Huskies could make a deep run in March.  Deeper than any Husky team in recent memory.

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by | November 9, 2010 · 1:21 am

The Huskies 5th Starter

Lorenzo Romar and the Husky basketball team officially begin their season this Saturday but there is one big question that hasn’t been answered yet, who will be the Huskies 5th starter?  As of right now, the Huskies have this as their set lineup:

PG: Abdul Gaddy
SG: Isaiah Thomas
F: Justin Holiday
C: MBA

That leaves one guy, obviously.  In the exhibition game last Saturday (that all of the Good Guys attended and will eventually recap) Scott Suggs took the 5th starting spot.  He played pretty well, scoring 11 points and looked impressive with his jumper.  But, I don’t think he won the starting job over.  Also, I don’t think that picking this 5th starter is all that hard.

The 5th starter, in my opinion, should be Darnell Gant.  I wasn’t sold on this idea until watching the game on Saturday.  Here are 3 quick reasons why I think Darnell is the guy.

  • Rebounding. The Huskies were out-rebounded in their exhibition game.  Sure, they weren’t playing as hard as they will in the regular season, but this is still a shock.  Scott Suggs is not a great rebounder.  Gant won’t completely solve the rebounding issue, but he will help.  Rebounding will be an issue for this team and Gant is one solution that has to be looked into.
  • Defensive Matchups. With Scott Suggs in the lineup, Justin Holiday had to guard the 4 guy.  Justin Holiday is not big enough to do that.  Neither is Scott Suggs.  Holiday needs to be on the other teams best small forward or shooting guard, like he has been all year.  Darnell gives the Huskies the matchups they want defensively.
  • Defense > Offense. Scott Suggs is an offensive player.  He may be decent on the other side of the ball but offense is where he excels.  Darnell Gant is a very good defender that isn’t a liability on offense.  They are basically opposites in that area.  The Huskies are not going to have trouble scoring.  They have too many weapons to not score, and that is why I think the 5th starter should be a defender.  Gant, Holiday and Overton are the teams 3 best defenders and I think the Huskies would be wise to have two of them on the floor most of the time.  By putting Gant in the starting lineup they start the game that way.

Of course, none of this goes unless Gant is healthy and at the moment he’s not (groin injury).  But, he’s not supposed to be out long.  I could be way off base here, I just think this is the best way for the Huskies to win.  Frankly, it doesn’t matter a ton, players will get their minutes if they are good enough.

By the way, I do like Scott Suggs quite a bit.  He’s going to be a good player for the Huskies this year.  This is not a slight at him at all.  Either way, I think the Huskies will be a successful team this season.  We’ll have a few previews up soon!

Thanks for reading!

Andrew

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by | November 1, 2010 · 4:04 pm

Our Expectations

This wasn’t the way this Husky football season was supposed to go.  But, that phrase has become normal in Seattle over the past couple years.  We had the Seahawks in 2009, while the Mariners and Huskies put up surprising, yet still mediocre, seasons.  This year we said that about the Husky basketball team, before they took off on a run.  The phrase never ringed more true for this years Mariner season and now we have a Husky football team that is spinning out of control.

With so many disappointments, we have to ask the question, ‘Did we set our expectations too high?’  You can’t clump all these teams together so let’s take a look at each team.

  • The 2009 Seahawks:  I’m not going to pretend to know a ton about the Seahawks, I don’t, but I think it’s fair to say that expectations for this team were reasonable.  Most fans would have accepted a 7-9 or 8-8 record, that seemed reasonable given the personnel on the team.  You could argue there were liabilities all along the offense and the team was plagued by injuries.  If you take those into account, we could add another loss to the record.  So let’s say 6-10 was a bare minimum for this team.  I’m not taking into account the weak division they play in.  The team finished 5-11.  Not only did they finish below expectations, they weren’t very competitive in many of their games.  I think Seattle had their expectations right for this team but the Seahawks failed to meet them.
  • 2009-2010 Husky Basketball: The Huskies were coming off their first league championship in decades and expectations were very high.  There was talk about repeating as league champions and making a run to the final four.  Then, the season started slowly.  The team didn’t gel and was extremely inconsistent.  The Huskies couldn’t win on the road but looked as if they could beat anyone at home.  At times it looked as if they let the expectations get to their heads.  Of course, the Huskies turned it around and made one of the most thrilling runs in their history, all the way to the sweet 16 after looking like they wouldn’t make the tournament.  The expectations for the final four might have been a little high for this team, but they did show they had the talent to do that, from time to time.  Thankfully, a team is judged by how they finish so this team met expectations in my mind because of their late run.
  • The 2010 Mariners: In case you’ve forgotten (or just tried to erase this from your mind) their was actually some buzz about the Mariners this year.  They were everyone’s sleeper pick to make the World Series.  An overachieving 2009 team combined with some sneaky acquisitions and one huge trade (Cliff Lee) by Jack Z had fans thinking playoffs for the first time in almost a decade.  Then, the season started.  The Mariners were terrible, so terrible that there’s no point in retelling how bad they actually were.  But, were the expectations justified?  Partially.  It was unreasonable to think that the offense would be good.  On the other hand, it was unreasonable to think that the offense would be that bad.  So, dreams of a World Series were probably unrealistic but dreams of the playoffs or a team in contention?  That wasn’t that far out of the question.  Needless to say, the Mariners failed completely.  The fans weren’t wrong in this instance.

Now, we’re on the brink of losing another season.  Jake Locker will be out against Oregon, and potentially more, and the Dawgs will need to win 3 of their last 4 to make it to a bowl game.  Going into the season, a bowl game was the minimum expectation and 8-4 seemed like a popular record that most people were picking.  Was expecting 8-4 too much?  Probably.  There were too many holes in the lineup that faced a tough schedule.  But, 7-5 or 6-6 was and is completely reasonable.  A senior quarterback with all kinds of talent, an offense filled with weapons, and a defense that seemed to improve at the end of the year gave us reasons to think this season would be better than it is.  I don’t think we were that wrong in our expectations.

We definitely weren’t wrong in expecting a competitive team, and we haven’t seen that the last couple weeks.  That’s the disappointing part.  I still believe in this coaching staff, but this team is getting worse.  It felt like during the Ty years that the team didn’t bother practicing during the week, it’s seemed like that’s the same case the last 2 weeks.  We, as fans, deserve more than we were given against Stanford.  Our players and coaches were not even close to the standard we should expect.  That’s whats frustrating.  I’ve put up with losses, and they’re bad in their own right, but Saturday’s loss was different.  It was embarrassing for players, fans, and coaches.  Of course, the Huskies could turn their season around just like the basketball team did.  They could win their last 3 games and salvage their season.  But, things are looking grim right now.

In short, we need to have expectations.  We need to expect more than what the Mariners gave us this year and what the Huskies and Seahawks gave us this weekend.  If we don’t, there’s no pressure to get better.  Hopefully, those teams have higher expectations of themselves.  If not, this is going to be another long couple years in sports.

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by | October 29, 2010 · 9:20 pm

A Sad Day

Pac-1o basketball fans received some difficult news today.  Max Zhang will not return to the University of California to continue his basketball career, opting instead to stay with the Chinese national team.  He was already going to miss this year to play with them, but now he will not return at all.

For those not in the know, Max is the Good Guys’ favorite 7′ 3″ Chinese center.  Few things brought more joy than Max in a pregame layup line or squatting in front of the scorer’s bench to check in, unable to bring his head below the scorer’s line of vision.  He could foul with abandon, and even dominated defensively for the occasional minute. 

Max was the kind of player you always like to see on the opponent’s sideline.  No real threat to have an impact on the game, he brought a level of goofiness that only a 7′ 3″ Chinese Golden Bear can.  And I mean that in the best way possible.  Sometimes I’d wonder about the interpersonal relationships of the Bears.  What did Jerome Randle think of Max?  Was he the goofy little brother?  Does he speak English?  What would the world look like if he ever became a star?

A few weeks ago, we saw a new side of Max when he took part in a fairly horrific brawl which led to the Chinese team being suspended from international play.  Maybe we should have known that we were coming to the end of Max’s era, but today’s news is still hard.  Max, tonight we bow to the west in your honor and think of what could have been.  If you ever decide to come back, how about transferring to Oregon State?  You and Joe Burton patrolling the paint might be one of the best things I can imagine.  Goodbye, Max Zhang.

-Matthew

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by | October 26, 2010 · 9:24 pm

A Very Quick UW Basketball Post

The UW basketball team started practice about a week ago, so I’ll throw this out there in case anyone wants to discuss the team.  They’re favorites to win the Pac-10, which looks to be nearly as weak as it was last year.  Some quick thoughts and things to watch.

  • The team is very deep overall, but not in the frontcourt.  Tyreese Breshers had to retire for medical reasons just before practice started, leaving MBA, Darnell Gant, and Aziz N’Diaye as the only bigs.  Given Romar’s style of play, they can work around this, but one more body would be very nice.  Freshman Desmond Simmons is about Darnell Gant’s size and does all the dirty work, but he’s more of a wing and is recovering from an injury.
  • Speaking of Aziz, he sounds like he could be a difference maker.  Quick history: an incoming sophomore from a junior college, he lost all of last season to surgery.  Good news: he’s 7′ 260 lb and ran the fastest mile on the team.  Most thought he’d get limited time this year while he recovered and developed, and that might still be the case, but Romar singled him out as playing well in a recent scrimmage.  If he adjusts quickly, he could have a huge role as a defensive stopper and rebounder.
  • Venoy Overton will miss most of the preseason with an injury.  Hopefully the extra practice time will give Abdul Gaddy a chance to get rolling out of the gate.  Gaddy playing up to his potential could make this team tough to beat.
  • I don’t have any inside access to the team or anything, but now that Isaiah Thomas is the top Dawg, I’m betting we don’t see the same chemistry issues that dogged the Huskies (no pun intended) the first half of last season.  Something never quite fit last year, and I still think it had to do with Quincy Pondexter’s personality not meshing with the rest of the team.  I could be crazy, and I’d sure like to have Quincy’s scoring back, but I’m betting this team finds its identity a lot quicker than last year’s did.
  • Off the court, UW got a huge recruiting commitment from Tony Wroten.  A big Seattle point guard, Wroten was talked of as the top recruit in the country at times.  Injuries and maturity issues have quieted those discussions the last couple of years, but he still has a world of potential.  In the past, he seemed like a lock to leave the state after high school, so the commitment is even sweeter.  I’ve seen some Gary Payton comparisons, which seem to fit from the little I know.  The Huskies currently have a good but somewhat under-the-radar class.  They’re in on two of the top big men on the West Coast, Angelo Chol and Norvel Pelle.  Getting either of them would be huge and make it a very complete class.  Signing day for the fall is coming up, and we’ll do a full breakdown as it gets closer.

More to come as the season gets closer.  If there’s anything you’d like to hear about, leave it in the comments and we’ll see what we can do!

-Matthew

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by | May 27, 2010 · 4:04 pm

My 2 cents on T-Jones

A week has passed since Husky hearts were broken over the news that Terrance Jones is headed to Kentucky, and not Washington. My initial reaction of frustration has subsided some now, so rather than vent, I think I can convey some thoughts.

In hindsight, this had a bit more drama than most recruiting battles, but similar scenarios play out in college recruiting every year, and Washington has been in the middle multiple times. Consider these recent episodes:

1- Lorenzo Wade verbally committed to Washington, but ended up at San Diego State. This left an open scholarship. That scholarship went to Quincy Pondexter. That kinda worked out.
2- Venoy Overton verbally committed to USC, but ended up at Washington. I can’t imagine having to watch Venoyance make life hell for UW guards twice a year.
3- Abdul Gaddy verbally committed to Arizona, then de-committed, then re-committed, then finally de-committed once again and ended up at Washington. Gaddy has not lived up to the hype of being a top recruit, but his sophomore year could be a big one.
4- Enes Kanter verbally committed to Washington, but ended up at Kentucky. Kanter had not taken the required tests to be able to make an official visit to UW, thus the school was never able to showcase itself to Kanter. As his stock began to rise, his options increased and similar to Jones, Kanter couldn’t pass up Kentucky. Boo Kentucky.

The bottom line is that 17-18 year old guys change their minds all the time, sometime it benefits Washington, sometimes it doesn’t. Would Washington have been better off with both Terrances heading into 2010? We can speculate that yes, the team would have been better. Certainly they would have had more talent, but one can only hypothesize whether Jones would have been the difference maker in UW making a deep tourney run. Consider 2006, when everyone thought the Huskies would be major players with Brockman and the 2nd rated center in the country coming in, Spencer Hawes. That team failed to make the NCAA tourney.

I wish Terrance Jones would have stuck to his word, and signed on to be a Husky. I don’t like that he was in Montlake the day before changing his commitment, and he basically embarrassed himself with the whole press conference thing. But in the end, I can hardly blame him. Kentucky gives Jones top exposure, and in the past 2 years, Calipari’s star player, Derrick Rose and John Wall, have gone on to be the #1 pick in the NBA (assuming Wall is picked #1). T-Jones is a 1 and done player in all likelihood, so you can understand why this would appeal to him.

UW would have loved to have had Jones for the 6 months or so that he plays college hoops. There is still an outside chance, if Calipari goes to the NBA, that Jones ends up back at UW. But I highly doubt it, and at this point, Romar may just say no thanks. He indicated as much in an interview last week with Kevin Calabro. The Huskies will be good next year, and upperclassmen will lead the team. My prediction is the Huskies come out just fine from all this. Given how everything played out, Washington might even be better off without Jones. Time will tell. And besides Husky fans, would you rather have Locker or Terrance Jones this coming year? You can’t win them all, but we haven’t lost them all either.

-Dan

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