Category Archives: Mariners

Posts dealing with the Mariners

by | December 9, 2010 · 7:31 pm

Small Sample Sizes

Player A (over 2 years):

330 Plate Appearances
.176 Batting Average
.218 OBP
.333 Slugging Percentage
.552 OPS
7.43 K/BB ratio
11 HR

Player B:

242 Plate Appearances
.197 Batting Average
.232 OBP
.294 Slugging Percentage
.526 OPS
8.75 K/BB
5 HR

Player A and Player B are very close to the same.  Yes, Player B hit for a higher average but I would argue that Player A is a better offensive player since his OPS is a little higher and he doesn’t strike out quite as much.

Player A is Miguel Olivo and Player B is Adam Moore.  While in Seattle, Miguel Olivo was probably the worst hitter in baseball.  But, the stats show that Adam Moore was just as bad.  Olivo has gotten much better since then.  Seattle was by far his worst stop in the big leagues.  It’s yet to be proven if Adam Moore will develop into anything.

The truth is that all of Seattle has a terrible perception of Miguel Olivo because of a small sample size that is similar to what Moore did last year.  I’m not saying that all of the people who are upset about this move are wrong, but I don’t think this move is worth freaking out about.

I know most of us would like to see if Moore could develop into the top prospect he was.  But, the truth is the Mariners upgraded their catcher position by quite a bit today.  If Olivo is anywhere close to his career norms he will be twice as good as any catcher the Mariners had last year.

People are forgetting about how terrible Mariners’ catchers were last season.  People also forget that, to people in the front office, next year is not a throwaway season.  If the Mariners don’t show drastic improvement Jack Z will be fired sooner rather than later.  The way they have to do this is with small contracts, like the ones they just gave Olivo and Cust.  Yes, you can find a lot of things wrong with signing Miguel Olivo and that is proven by the M’s blogosphere going absolutely crazy (aside from Jeff Sullivan, thanks for your rationale thinking), but the Mariners improved today.

By the way, in the last 2 days, the Mariners signed 2 players that hit a combined 26 home runs last year.  That’s 25% of what the Mariners hit last year.  In 2009, they combined for 48 home runs.  That’s 47.5% of what the Mariners hit last year.  Enough said.

Andrew

Leave a comment

Filed under Mariners

Tagged as

by | December 9, 2010 · 4:29 pm

The Return of Miguel Olivo

The Mariners have just signed catcher Miguel Olivo to a 2 year contract, with $7 mil. guaranteed.  Most Mariner fans might remember Olivo for a brief and disastrous earlier stint with the Mariners, after he was acquired in the Freddy Garcia trade.  He was as bad a hitter in that year plus period as anyone the Mariners have seen recently.

Since then, he’s become a decent catcher.  At the plate, he’s similar to Jose Lopez, with no selectivity, but a little more power and less contact.  He’s going to strike out, and he’s going to hit some homers.  There’s concern that Safeco will completely rob his pull power, which is possible, but it’s one of those things you just have to deal with.  Behind the plate, he gives up some passed balls but has a big arm. 

Olivo’s a legitimate major league starting catcher, and that’s something the Mariners did not have recently.  This isn’t my favorite move, and he might not hit at all, but it could make the Mariners a lot better at a good price, so I’m having a hard time getting worked up about it.

Some other Mariner thoughts, since I rarely have time to post lately (Christmas break is coming!):

  • This move could mean a few things for Adam Moore.  I’ve already seen speculation that he’s automatically a trade chip now.  That would not surprise me a bit, although I have no idea what his value in trade would be.  Not overly high, I would bet.  More likely, I think he’s Olivo’s back-up, catching 50 games or so.  If he progresses and improves, Olivo can be traded.  If he doesn’t, at least they have Olivo.
  • My initial thought on the Jack Cust addition: helpful but unexciting.  He should be a huge improvement to the lineup, but he’s never been one of my favorite players.  A three true outcomes guy with declining power just isn’t my kind of guy.  Still glad to have him over some other options.
  • As everyone knows by now, Jose Lopez is now a Colorado Rockie.  I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he had a solid year this year, but it’s important to remember that this isn’t a bad move even if he hits 30 home runs or something.  He wasn’t going to succeed in Safeco, and sometimes it’s just time to make a change.  You can argue that the Mariners sold way low on him, which is true, but his contract really forced the issue.  I can’t think of another way they could have gone with this.  He was just a bad fit for the park and wore out his welcome on the field.  Best of luck to Jose in the rest of his career, though.  He always seemed like a good guy, and he underwent some horrible personal issues that made it hard not to root for him, even when he was struggling.  I hope he finds some happiness and homers in Colorado or wherever he ends up.

I would expect there’s at least one moderately big trade coming for the Mariners, but we’ll see.  Going out on a limb, I would bet that Zach Greinke is in a Mariner uniform by the start of 2012.  More later when there are some more moves and I’m done with classes for the semester.

-Matthew

Leave a comment

Filed under Mariners

Tagged as , , ,

by | December 8, 2010 · 7:56 pm

A Mariners’ Move!

The Seattle Mariners made their first real move of the off-season today, signing Jack Cust to a 2.5 million, 1 year deal.  Dan wrote earlier today about how underwhelming the Mariners off-season had been thus far.  There haven’t been any deals and the rumors have been just as lame.  So, getting an actual bit of news is nice.

Don’t get me wrong, Jack Cust isn’t exactly the most exciting news, especially with the Angels looking like the front-runner for Carl Crawford but I think this was a nice move.  Cust is a left-handed power hitter.  He’s been with the A’s the last few years and has put up solid numbers.  He’s an all-or-nothing type of hitter (like Russell Branyan) who strikes out and walks a ton.

Cust has had a drop-0ff in power the last few years.  His slugging percentages his first two years in the bigs were .504 and .476 (in 2007 and 2008).  The last two years his slugging percentages were .417 and .438.  His home run total has dropped a little bit.  These are the reasons to fear, but there are reasons to expect success.

Cust is a left-handed bat that could do quite well in Safeco.  Signing for 2.5 million is very cheap for a player who would have been the Mariners best power-hitter last year and who will most likely be their best power-hitter this year.  Cust will step into the middle of the lineup and actually give this team at least a little bit of a threat.

Will Cust turn this team around?  No, but he’ll be one of the small pieces that could turn this team back to respectability.  We don’t have much money to spend, but this was a low risk-high reward type of move that we’re used to seeing out of Jack Z.

In other news, the Mariners are reportedly on the verge of signing Miguel Olivo to a 2 year, $7.5 million deal.  When Mariner fans think of Miguel Olivo most come close to throwing up in their mouths, but the truth is he’s not near as bad as we remember.  And, don’t forget that Rob Johnson was our starting catcher a good share of last year.  We’ll have more on this move if it actually happens.  As of now, it’s nothing but rumors.

Believe big!

Andrew

 

Leave a comment

Filed under M's Transaction News, Mariners

Tagged as , ,

by | December 7, 2010 · 9:29 pm

M’s Quiet at the MLB Winter Meetings

Let me first say that I am a sucker for the annual MLB winter meetings. I love the rumors, love the trades, and the possibility of hearing the Mariners connected to a big name, like Cliff Lee last year. I follow it all on twitter, and I don’t miss a single tweet from the gurus. The winter meetings bring excitement into my life, a lot like the NFL draft. You can make your own judgments of me, but I love this stuff. So now that you see where I’m coming from, as a Mariners fan, you can understand my disappointment with this years’ winter meetings so far. I didn’t expect the M’s to be big players, unlike last year, but Jack typically makes a splash, and I have not heard anything noteworthy. I mean seriously, here’s the few M’s related tweets I’ve seen.

“AL West foes A’s & Mariners seem to be going head to head on at least 2 free agents, RHP Dennys Reyes, a reliever, and C Gregg Zaun.” – John Hickey

“Sources tell me Mariners are targeting Luis Valbuena for need at second.” -Shannon Drayer

“Sources: Strong multi-year interest for FA RHP Kevin Gregg. Offers from RedSox, Pirates, Nationals. Orioles, Mariners also in mix.” -Ken Rosenthal

“Jorge Cantu generating interest in San Diego, Seattle, Arizona.” -Tim Brown

“Rays and Mariners showing interest in free agent LHP Mark Hendrickson.” -Jon Morosi

“Mariners liked Rich Harden as a free agent last off-season — and they are interested now, too.” -Jon Morosi

“The Seattle Mariners have checked in on Eric Chavez as a possible low-risk 1B-3B-DH option if he’s healthy.” -Jerry Crasnick

On the excitement meter, these rate has major duds. I’m glad we aren’t signing guys like Jayson Werth for 7 years and $126 million, but I need something Jack! Last year, the M’s attempted to re-build and compete for the playoffs at the same time; a tricky task to say the least, and it obviously didn’t pan out. I think this year, given the strength of the Rangers and Angels, and the fact that we had the worst record in the AL last year, a major youth movement makes the most sense. Sure, Seattle could conceivably offer a package of Smoak, Pineda, etc. for a pitcher like Zach Greinke, and also sign Carlos Pena or another bat, and put together a pretty competitive team next year. But would that even be enough to challenge in the AL West? Perhaps, but it is probably best to hold onto our blue chips prospects rather than mortgage the future, and make a run in 2012.

I understand the logic, but it’s boring and frustrating. I want the M’s to be good…like NOW. Unfortunately, the waiting must continue. Maybe we will make a couple minor splashes in days to come, but the biggest moves are probably a year away.

-Dan

Leave a comment

Filed under Mariners

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , ,

by | November 10, 2010 · 6:44 pm

R.I.P. Dave Niehaus

Dave Niehaus just passed away from a heart attack today in his home.  The longtime Mariner announcer was relatively young, 75, and seemed to have every intention of coming back year after year to be the voice of the Mariners.  The Mariners have changed managers, players, and front office officials many times over their 33 year history but Dave was the mainstay.

Sometime soon, we’ll look back at our memories of this hall-of-famer but for now we offer up our thoughts and prayers to his family.  Dave was the best of the best in the announcing booth and seemed to be the same way as a man.  You’ll be missed, Mr. Niehaus.  Seattle has suffered some bad days in sports lately, but today is more than sports.  Thank you for everything, Dave.

Andrew

Update: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MzMgO-mrarU

Leave a comment

Filed under Mariners

Tagged as

by | November 8, 2010 · 12:57 pm

Your 2011 Mariners Wrap-up

With free agency starting, I’m skipping over the pitchers so we can wrap this up.  Essentially, every pitcher is back for next year unless the Mariners, trade, release or non-tender someone.  Aardsma and League are prime candidates to be traded, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Fister or Vargas go too, but it would have to be in a big deal because the rotation depth is hurting.  Overall, the pitching is about what it was the second half of last year: serviceable but underwhelming outside of Felix.

So, looking at the current roster, here’s what I’d project as the opening day lineup if no changes were made over the offseason (please excuse the ugly formatting):

C Adam Moore SP Felix Hernanadez
1B Justin Smoak SP Jason Vargas
2B Dustin Ackley SP Doug Fister
3B Chone Figgins SP Michael Pineda
SS Jack Wilson SP Luke French
LF Michael Saunders CL David Aardsma
CF Franklin Gutierrez RP Brandon League
RF Ichiro RP Dan Cortes
DH Milton Bradley RP Garrett Olson

 We can argue numerous spots there, like the 5th starter and bullpen, but it doesn’t make much difference.  Swap in David Pauley and Shawn Kelley if it makes you feel better.  Continue reading →

Leave a comment

Filed under Mariners

by | November 3, 2010 · 12:45 pm

Mariners Make First Moves

The Seattle Times and others are reporting that the Mariners have declined options on Erik Bedard, Russell Branyan, and Jose Lopez.  Bedard was no surprise whatsoever, as he hasn’t pitched in a year and half and the option was for $8 mil.  The other two had a slight chance of getting picked up, but this was still expected.

Branyan and Bedard become free agents, with nothing to prevent them from resigning with the Mariners if everyone’s interested.  Lopez only has 5 years of major league service time, so he remains on the Mariners roster, for now.  They have about a month to decide whether to offer him arbitration, meaning he would get a contract next year, or non-tender him, making him a free agent.  Dave Cameron at USS Mariner has a post that goes into a little more depth on the options.  He says expect a trade, but any of the three are plausible outcomes.

In other related news, a bunch of guys were removed from the 40-man roster.  Ryan Langerhans and Guillermo Quiroz have refused an assignment to the minors, making them free agents.  Ryan Feierabend, Sean White, and Chris Seddon are still deciding whether to accept their assignments.  I can’t imagine anyone will be too interested in whatever happens with any of these guys.  Again, it’s possible they could all come back in some form or other, but it doesn’t really matter.  Brian Sweeney was also taken off waivers by the Diamondbacks.  He won’t be back.

-Matthew

Leave a comment

Filed under Mariners

Tagged as , , , , , , ,

by | November 2, 2010 · 8:38 pm

Your 2011 Mariners- Outfield

With the World Series over, free agency is right around the corner.  It’s coming even earlier than usual this year, so I’ll try to get through these overviews of the team before much happens.  Up next:

Outfield

On the Roster

Ichiro– Ichiro had a slightly down year for him in 2010, but he was still the best offensive player on the team.  He’s one of the only players on the roster worth coming to the park to see, and there’s no reason to think he won’t be just as good and probably better next year.  Sure, he’s paid a lot, but nothing’s changing that now, so sit back and enjoy him.

Franklin Gutierrez– After a fast start, Guti joined the rest of the team in having an extremely disappointing year.  2009 Franklin is a guy to build a team around; 2010 Franklin is a borderline starter.  Now probably isn’t the time to trade him, but I’d be open to the possibility if the team has confidence in Michael Saunders and thinks he can play center.  In reality, I think he’ll be starting again in center in 2011, barring some mega-deal where he’s one of several pieces going out.  He still has a lot of potential, and the defense didn’t really dip, but the jury’s now out on Gutierrez. Continue reading →

1 Comment

Filed under Mariners

Tagged as , , , , , , , , ,