Last March, Matthew started a series called “Y2010M!” (standing for Your 2010 Mariners). It provided the reader with information on players from the 2010 Mariners. It seemed like a logical thing to do at the time. The Mariners were supposed to be good, and there was more optimism in Seattle than there had been in quite a while. This season didn’t work out though. Frankly, Y2010M’s suck. In fact, you probably don’t want to call them yours. I don’t want to call them mine. While next season will certainly be a little better, it can’t get much worse, it isn’t something that we should be extremely excited about. Playoff chances will be slim and the casual fan probably won’t enjoy watching as the young players progress next season. On the plus side, the Mariners could have about 3 legitimate candidates for Rookie of the Year. Because of that reason, I am led to 2012. The Mayan’s aren’t the only ones predicting big things that year. Unlike the Bavasi years, there is actually hope in the future now. Z has put good prospects in the system and the future looks much brighter than it did when he took over. Yes, I know the future doesn’t make the present any more bearable, but at least there’s some hope. So, lets take a way too early look at your 2012 Mariners.
Starting Rotation
The starting rotation is the place where we know the least about so I’ll start there. Obviously, you have Felix as your ace. I don’t need to say anything about him because he’s awesome and everyone should know it. Then, almost as certain, we have Mr. Pineda. Pineda is a top 3 prospect in the Mariners system and is a top 30 prospect in baseball. He is better than everyone in Seattle’s rotation right now, aside from Felix. No one’s a safe bet, but Pineda is about as close as they come. He is one of those rookie of the year candidates.
After Pineda, it gets a little blurry. There’s Vargas and Fister, who are very solid back of the rotation guys. I think Vargas stands a better chance to still be around in there just because he has better pitches. That’s not to say Fister isn’t capable. He could be a very good 5th starter. That leaves the 2nd, 3rd, and/or 4th spot in the rotation open (assuming Felix is the ace, Pineda is either the 2nd or 3rd starter, Vargas at 4th or 5th, and Fister maybe at the 5th spot). So, who will fill either one or two spots? I wouldn’t be surprised to see an innings eater (like a Kevin Millwood) added via free agency. But, there are several options in the system.
Ryan Rowland-Smith has been much better in Tacoma lately but I wouldn’t count on him. Same goes for Luke French. There’s Mauricio Robles, who has more upside than both of those guys but has a longer way to come. Robles was acquired in the Washburn trade and has the upside of a 3 starter. He’s a short little guy who throws pretty hard and is left-handed. He has high strikeout rates but also has high walk rates. If he can learn to control his stuff, I think he’ll be in the rotation at some point. If not, he may be moved to the bullpen. Nick Hill was once highly thought of but he’s struggled this year. There are also this years draftees but counting on the starters by 2012 isn’t a very good bet.
The 2012 rotation will depend on the emergence of Pineda and the ability to sign or trade for a veteran. If Pineda is as good as we think, the rotation could be quite good.
If you haven’t heard already, Lou Piniella retired from baseball today. He had planned on stepping down after the season but, because of his mom’s health problems, he retired after the Cubs game today. Being the youngest of the writers here, I’m probably the least qualified to write a post about him but it felt right to write something about it. Maybe another one of the guys will give you a memory or two sometime.
Why does it feel right to write about Lou? It’s not like it’s affecting any of my teams. Well, I think Piniella holds at least a little bit of a spot in most Mariner fans hearts. He was here for the best years our baseball team gave us. No, it wasn’t all because of him that the Mariners went to the playoffs four times in his tenure but he was certainly a large part of it.
Again, I don’t remember a ton about Lou. I was 13 when he left the Mariners and no one can be a very knowledgeable fan at that age. But, if I had to pick one thing that Lou taught me about baseball it would be that baseball is entertainment. It’s an easy concept but one that people simply forget until they see a team, like this years Mariners, that is boring beyond belief. What happens when a baseball game bores you on TV? Most people simply just turn it off. Baseball takes patience because it doesn’t yield as many “Did you see that?!” plays as football or basketball does. There’s a reason fans ‘oooh and awww’ over a pitcher throwing a fastball high and tight to a guy. Rarely does that pitch hit the guy, but it’s sometime the most breathtaking and startling moment in a baseball game. Now, I’m not saying that baseball bores me, it doesn’t, but it’s not exactly fast-paced.
There are a few ways to bring excitement to baseball games: Continue reading
Filed under Mariners
After looking as lost as Paul Wulff does on the football field for much of the season, Matt Tuiasosopo has put in the best 2 day stretch the Mariners have seen from a single player all season. He has 7 RBI’s in the last 2 games and 3 extra base hits (one double and two home runs). He made a game-saving diving catch in left field yesterday (more on that later) and is the main reason the Mariners have their current 2 game winning streak. Of course, this leads to the question of him getting more playing time. The M’s blogosphere has seen a good discussion about this topic in the last couple days and I’m not going to pretend like I know more than them, because I don’t. Geoff Baker thinks he should see more playing time. Jeff Sullivan is more on the fence but doesn’t disagree that he should. I think both of them are on the right track.
Throughout the course of the season, Tui has suffered some criticism from the Mariner faithful. Some of that was just criticism. Any unbiased Mariner follower will tell you that Matt is pretty bad in the field. It was a joke when he spent the early part of the season as the Mariners’ backup shortstop. Shortstop is a tough position to play and he should never have been put in that situation because of his lack of range. That’s not the only spot where he’s a bad fielder though, it’s everywhere else. He shouldn’t be allowed to play 2nd base either. That leaves the corner outfield spots, 3rd base and 1st base (he is the emergency catcher and is definitely not a center fielder).
His top position may be the corner outfield. He has an athletic family but his foot speed is not up to par which limits him in the outfield. Still, if Manny can play left field Tui can too. Unfortunately for him, the Mariners are pretty set at those spots. Ichiro is our right fielder, no questions asked. The M’s have Michael Saunders in left field and I think everyone would say he is a better option than Tui. Saunders needs this last month and a half in left to see if he can play there next year. Most scouts would agree that Saunders has a much higher upside than Tui does. His defense is far superior and his bat is even, if not better, than Tui. Saunders should be in the lineup at least 5 times a week for the remainder of the season (assuming he’s healthy).
So what about 3rd base? Well, Jose Lopez is there. Of course, Jose Lopez isn’t that great. There is one big reason why Lopez should be playing over Tui, his trade value. Lopey’s trade value is as low as it can get right now, but what if he hits a little hot streak? Maybe Jack Z could get something back for him in the off-season if he puts up a good last month. I’m as sick of watching Loafie as the next guy but it’s easy to understand why he’s playing. Also, he may be better than Matt (we don’t really know). I’d rather see Tui play over Lopez than Saunders but I don’t think that will be done or necessarily should be done. A spot start there for Tui is a good idea, I think.
That leaves 1st base. Which also leads to the question, “Why is Casey Kotchman still here?” I thought they’d cut him about a month ago but they haven’t. I don’t hate Kotchman and I understand that he’s filling in until Justin Smoak comes back up but I get tired of watching this guy try to hit. And he’s so dang slow. This is the spot where I think Tui should see the majority of his time if he plays. Kotch can’t hit lefties; Tui is right handed. Hey, that seems like a match! I’d be just fine with these two splitting time at first.
In the future, I agree with Sullivan in that Tui looks like he should be a 4th outfielder type. He hasn’t got a chance to prove himself and that’s what the rest of the season should be. Also, we have to keep in mind that it was just two games and it was against Baltimore. Sullivan pointed out that quality of opponent is often overlooked and undervalued in baseball (Jeff knows what he’s talking about).
Hopefully, we see a little more Tui in the next month. It’s amazing what a little confidence can do for a baseball player. Don’t forget that he’s only 24 too. And what’s the worst that could happen with the M’s playing him? They could lose a couple more games? We’re used to that already.
Andrew
Filed under Mariners
The Mariners just promoted Mauricio Robles and Dan Cortes to Triple-A Tacoma from West Tennessee. Cortes was no surprise, as he’s been ridiculously good since moving into the bullpen a few weeks ago. Someone, I think Jason Churchill, reported that he hasn’t thrown a fastball under 97 mph, I believe, since the change. If he keeps up anything close to that, I’ll be amazed if he’s not in the Mariners’ pen to start next year. As it is, he’ll probably be called up in September anyway.
Robles is a little bit more surprising, but not incredibly so. He’s having a good but not incredible year, but I think most would be pretty satisfied with his development thus far. The lefty will start tomorrow, which pushes Pineda back a start. I would imagine the major reason for these promotions are to help keep Pineda’s innings in check without depriving the Rainiers of talent while they fight for a playoff spot. Both players are deserving though.
In other Tacoma news, Justin Smoak hit a homer last night and has three in his last 5 games. He’s up to four homers and a .779 OPS at Tacoma after a terrible start when he was first sent down. Dustin Ackley is hitting the cover off the ball, going 3-5 last night. He’s at .304/.381/.471. He’ll be starting at second in Seattle by July.
Thanks to Mike Curto’s blog, Mike… Off-Mic, for the info. He’s the Rainiers radio announcer and an all-around good guy.
-Matthew
Filed under Mariners
High Desert Mavericks (California League)
We’ve arrived in Adelanto, CA, home to absurd amounts of home runs, terrified pitchers, and the High Desert Mavericks. HD is in the High-A California League, which essentially means it’s the third highest level in the Mariners system, ranking ahead of full season Clinton and short-season Everett and Pulaski. It’s a common landing spot for advanced college draftees and the first spot where you start to see prospects really get a lot of attention, unless they were big name signings or draftees. As I mentioned in the West Tennessee post, it’s also a hard place to guage prospects. Due to some small parks and thin air, the Cal league and High Desert in particular is maybe the best place to hit in all of professional baseball. Every year brings some gaudy numbers, which means that hitters are examined very closely and don’t really get the benefit of the doubt until they’ve shown more at a higher level. Pitchers are kind of given a break if they put up bad results. Just looking at stats, a casual fan often overrates a hitter’s year. Conversely, I think some hitters get underrated by prospect watchers, but that’s easily remedied by playing well once they reach West Tennessee.
After a fairly loaded roster in 2009, 2010’s is a little weaker. Due to that factor and just that these are younger guys or players who haven’t been in the system long, my knowledge is much more limited (and that will only increase further down the system). There are some definite prospects though, so let’s see what we’ve got.
So Long…
Anthony Vasquez- LHP Vasquez was called up to West Tennessee shortly after I wrote their post. He’s a smallish starter having a very solid year. Sounds like he has decent stuff, but his upside is probably Jason Vargas-ish, solid contributor but not a consistent high-level guy. Here’s a good ProballNW write-up with a lot more info.
The Big Boppers
Rich Poythress- 1B A 2009 second rounder, Poythress was regarded as maybe the best college power bat in the draft. A big right handed hitter, he’s having a solid year with an OPS currently at .918, but again it’s High Desert and his strikeouts are a little high. There’s good hope here, but he hasn’t quite set the world on fire. Continue reading
Filed under Mariners, Working On the Farm
Lots of talk about who is to blame for the Mariners terrible season. Many media and blog commenters are arguing that Wakamatsu isn’t the chief culprit for the losses and didn’t deserve to be fired. I’d probably agree with that, but here’s the thing…
It doesn’t matter!
In a baseball organization, the general manager (or his differently-named counterpart) is the boss. Ownership’s roll varies; sometimes they’re highly involved, sometimes not at all. Mariners ownership is a rather controversial topic that I’m going to skip right over since it doesn’t really pertain to this argument. They’ve decided Jack Zduriencik is running the team until they decide otherwise. That could be tomorrow for all we know, although I doubt they would sign off on firing Wakamatsu if they were going to do the same to Zduriencik soon. Moving on.
Zduriencik is the boss. Wakamatsu’s responsibility is working with the players on a daily basis and leading them to become the best baseball team they can become. Teaching and game decisions and so forth are a secondary issue. It’s become pretty clear that there are serious issues with Wakamatsu’s ability to lead the players. Again, is that his fault? Not necessarily. We can’t really say. Dave Cameron puts at least partial blame on the Griffey situation, as have others. It’s easy to look at the Figgins confrontation as well. Whether those are causes or symptoms, we don’t know, but they are clear indicators that there are issues in the clubhouse.
Is Zduriencik more to blame for the failure of this season than Wakamatsu? Yes, he probably is. He put together the roster. But Zduriencik isn’t going to fire himself. Further, another change in the front office would be one of the worst moves for this team, at least in my opinion. You can’t get rid of every player either, which means that issues between the players and Wakamatsu would likely remain next year. So, you have to get rid of Wakamatsu.
This move isn’t about blaming Wakamatsu. Zduriencik certainly might think he has deficits that keep him from effectively managing any baseball team, we don’t know. What’s important to remember is that this is a move to make the best of the future. Will a new manager have better luck with this team? Hard to say, but short of turning over 90% of the roster for a significantly better one, I’d say Wakamatsu’s chances of being successful as manager of the 2011 Mariners were exceedingly slim. It’s a move that had to be made, even if it wasn’t necessarily deserved.
Sometimes, things get to the point where they are simply not going to be successful going forward. The Mariners seemed to be at that point, so they effectively hit restart. There wasn’t much else to do. As fans, we just have to hope that this is the last restart for a while.
-Matthew
Filed under Mariners
The Mariners fired manager Don Wakamatsu, pitching coach Rick Adair, bench coach Ty Van Burkleo and perfomance coach Steve Hecht today. While the timing was unexpected, the move was not. After a season of losses and clubhouse issues, general consensus had the 2011 Mariners with a new manager. Daren Brown, who has coached the Tacoma Rainiers to a probable playoff season, will take over the Mariners, with various organizational coaches filling the other vacated spots. I would imagine Brown will be a candidate to stay on next year, but I would say he’s a longshot at this point.
In short, I’m in favor of the move while also disappointed to see Wakamatsu go. Much like the hitting coach firing earlier in the year, this is a move where the fired parties were not necessarily in the wrong, at least from an outsider’s view. It’s impossible to know exactly what rifts and issues existed between Wakamatsu and both Zduriencik and the players, but it became clear after the Figgins incident that some kind of move would need to be made. I like Wakamatsu and the persona he brought. I appreciated his even-keeled nature and apparent professionalism, respect and dignity. Those are all good qualities. Unfortunately, they weren’t winning him many games and apparently didn’t hold much traction with all of the players anymore.
In my mind at least, it doesn’t seem uncommon for a team to rebuild with one manager, who takes his lumps and is eventually fired. Hopefully, the young team then responds to a new manager and start winning. Hopefully that will be the case here. More than anything, however, this team needs to continue to compile more talent. They won’t win enough games to matter with this current roster, no matter who’s in charge in the dugout.
-Matthew
Filed under Mariners
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