Happy New Year! 2013 is a little odd for me because it reminds me that I’ve been out of high school for a decade now. It’s probably about time I move on. Ya right! On the other hand, I am welcoming 2013 with open arms. I’ve patiently waited for 2013, and if you’ve read this blog the past couple years, you may have seen my occasional 2013 references. So what’s all my excitement over, you ask? Well, in December of 2011 I had an epiphany about the year 2013, which was that ALL 5 Seattle teams (the ones people care about), could be in position to make a run at a championship.
I surmised that the UW football team, fresh off a Holiday Bowl win, would be entering year 5 under Coach Sark, and opening up new Husky Stadium, led by senior QB Keith Price. The Mariners would be in year 5 under Jack Zduriencik, and the young nucleus he was building would be established. Coming off a promising 1st season with Pete Carroll, I figured the Seahawks could be in position to really contend in a couple years, so long as they found a franchise QB—check! Lastly, the UW basketball team, and Sounders FC (entering its 5th season), are seemingly always a threat to have a special season, so across the board 2013 was, and is, looking bright. It even crossed my mind that it might be the year the NBA returns, which it could be.
A large part of my optimism stems from the fact that for the first time in a long time, there appears to be stability with all 5 of our teams. In fact, every coach and GM has been on his respective Seattle team for 2+ years. I doubt many cities can say that, and what it means is that none of our teams are in a true “rebuilding” situation. There is reason for hope with all our teams, though now that 2013 is upon us, I can safely eliminate the Mariners and Huskies from winning it all this year. Still, could all our beloved teams have a winning season, or perhaps make a playoff run? Absolutely. Or, dare I say it, could 2013 be the year a championship is won in Seattle? If not this year, there’s always next year.
One year ago I asked your reaction following Prince signing in Detroit. One year later, I’m curious what your take is on Josh Hamilton signing with a division foe, for nearly $100 million less than Prince got.
This is my 5th installment in a series of posts I’ve done recapping and forecasting the Mariners Rebuilding Process, since Jack Z took over as GM. You can find the prior posts here: Years 1 and 2Year 3Year 4
Let’s recap the 5 year rebuild plan I laid out in October 2008.
THE BLUEPRINT
2009, Year 1: Shed dead weight, Begin overhauling the farm Summary:Traded Putz for Guti, Carp, Vargas, and managed to get rid of Silva, Betancourt, and Johjima, while also using 3 of first 5 picks on Ackley, Franklin, Seager. Grade: A+
2010, Year 2: Shed dead weight, Continue building the farm (and lock up Felix) Summary:Signed Griffey and Sweeney, locked up Felix and acquired Cliff Lee, then swapped him for Smoak. Could have done without the Morrow trade and of course the Figgins contract. Selected Walker, Paxton, Pryor in rounds 1, 4, 5. Grade: B-
2011, Year 3: Bring the youth up, Evaluate potential, Acquire more young talent Summary:Hired Wedge, traded for Brendan Ryan, picked up Wilhelmson at a local bar, and signed low cost vets such as Cust, Olivo, Kennedy. Fielded an even mix of youth and vets, but loads of young talent in the pipeline for the first time in forever. At the deadline traded Fister for Furbush and Wells. Hultzen chosen with #2 pick. Grade: B
2012, Year 4: continue youth movement, achieve .500 record Summary:Swapped Pineda for Montero and made some shrewd acquistions in Jaso, Iwakuma, Luetge, Millwood, Perez, then saw a young roster come up 6 games short of .500, while improving by 8 games from prior season. Picked Mike Zunino #3 overall. Grade: A
2013, Year 5: add 1-2 big pieces, contend for playoffs Summary: Thus far we’ve seen a few low cost signings in Bay, Ibanez, Bonderman, and a 1 for 1 swap of Vargas-Morales. Grade: ???
I’ve said this before, but in 4 1/2 years on the job, Bill Bavasi set this organization back 5 years, minimum. Last year I stated
“For the first time on Jack’s watch, I think the on field W/L record is important. .500 ball is a reasonable expectation this year, which would be a welcomed site for our eyes.”
Well, The M’s flirted with .500 in 2012 and showed noticeable improvement, albeit without much offense yet again. Entering year 5 the talk of laying the foundation and replenishing the system should be over, and playoff contention ought to be close. Zduriencik has said as much if you’ve heard any of his recent interviews.
If the blueprint holds form, the M’s will be adding 1-2 big pieces this offseason, and assembling a playoff capable team in 2013. This sounds great but it is nearly January and almost all the big name free agents have signed elsewhere, and the only acquisitions Seattle has made are Robert Andino, Jason Bay, Raul Ibanez, and a swap of Jason Vargas for Kendrys Morales. Not exactly blockbuster moves capable of propelling the M’s from 75 wins into contention. I suppose the big moves we hoped for are still possible if Jack can, for example, land Justin Upton and Michael Bourn, and add a veteran pitcher to round out the rotation. That would certainly be a competitive team, but is that the best route to take?
Given how the AL West is shaping up, it may be best to hang onto the prospects, add a couple decent pieces, and shoot for a respectable 80-85 wins in 2013, while waiting until next year to make the big splash. I don’t see a scenario, at this point, for the M’s to overtake Texas or Anaheim in 2013, and probably not Oakland either. So why go all in? I’m not suggesting Seattle give up any hopes they had for next year, just because the division rivals are pulling away, but I don’t want the M’s to mortgage the future to field a better team next year, but one that cannot be sustained.
Keeping a positive trajectory is crucial next year, seeing an improved offense is also important, but that’s about all we can reasonably expect in 2013. This puts real contention off until next year, and adds a year to the original 5 year blueprint, but taking the path that leads to sustained success is what is most important. We’ve seen the Washington Nationals do this, and Tampa Bay also, and with much less money. It may not be popular, given the fractured fan base, plummeting attendance, and a decade of bad baseball, but Seattle has never given a player a $100 million contract, and unless it is a Felix extension, I don’t see it happening for at least another year. And surprisingly, I’m fine with that.
If it were about three years ago, that headline would have been really exciting. Not so much now. Of course, if the Mariners would have signed Bay three years ago, they would likely have been the ones eating $21 million to let Bay test free agency this year.
It’s not official, but the Mariners have signed Jason Bay, pending a physical. No terms have been released, but reportedly it’s a one year deal for $3 million (Edit- there’s now news that this is false and it’s for less than $1 mil. No official news, so just wait and see). Some background, if you need it: Bay is an outfielder from British Columbia who was one of the top free agents coming off the 2009 season. The Mariners were reportedly interested in him then, and he in them, but the Mets blew everyone away with a 4 year, $66 million deal. Bay promptly fell apart. He was their Chone Figgins, at nearly twice the money. After this past season, Bay and the Mets renegotiated his contract so that some of the money he is owed for this year is deferred, and then the Mets granted him free agency. Basically, they declared him a lost cause, changed his contract so that they have a little money to spend this year, and gave up on Bay.
The Mariners taking a chance on Bay seemed a foregone conclusion, so this signing should come as no surprise. In his prime, he was a power-hitting outfielder, and if you haven’t noticed, the Mariners are searching incredibly hard for one of those. Bay is a long way from his prime, and I, along with nearly everyone else, am skeptical he’ll ever get back to even close his previous level. I’d say the odds are much better that he doesn’t last past April than that he has a major impact for the Mariners. Still, there’s a chance that he’ll feel rejuvenated coming back home and the Mariners get a cheap contributor. Unlikely, but not impossible.
I’ve already heard grumbling about the size of the contract. It’s definitely more than I expected, but it’s nothing to worry about. It’s only a one year deal, and that amount isn’t going to prevent them from cutting him if he has nothing. It’s no big deal. If you’re concerned about this preventing the Mariners from acquiring a better bat, don’t be. They still have plenty of money. And please don’t react like this is the only move they’re going to make. There will be plenty of people saying, “Stupid Mariners, cheap as usual. They think they can bring in a washed up local guy and call it good.” If they haven’t picked up anyone else by the start of the season, complain all you want, but they are working hard to bring in someone else. They are literally talking to or about every hitter who’s even potentially available. If they can find someone better to bring in they, they’ll get him. This is just the move that could be made right now.
In summary, Jason Bay is a lottery ticket. He might help, but probably won’t. The Mariners know this just as well as we do. The fact that they thought it worth taking a chance on Bay is a good sign. The contract is no big deal, even if he never plays an inning in Seattle. The winter meetings are still going, so I’ll post something if anything happens, and I’ll try to do a recap tonight or tomorrow if I get the chance. For now, follow MLB Trade Rumors for all the M’s news compiled in one easy spot. Believe big!
Everything football and basketball related is too depressing to write about at the moment, so let’s talk Mariners. It’s been a long time since the Mariners were the least depressing of the Seattle sports teams. Helps that they haven’t played a game in two months.
So far, the off-season has been pretty uneventful. There have been few actual moves, and most of those have been to address roster issues and limits. That doesn’t mean they lack excitement, however, because Chone Figgins is gone! The team waived him, meaning they’ll eat the remaining $8 million or so on his contract and he’ll be free to play with anyone who will take him. They’ve tried to trade him literally for years and no one would bite, so this is the next best thing. They were going to have to pay him either way, but at least now they have the roster spot to (hopefully) bring in a better player. No offense to Figgins personally, but I’m so glad he’s gone, and he probably is too. He had no role on the team and was sucking the air out of the fanbase to some extent. Here’s to moving forward.
The only other move of note was a trade that sent OF Trayvon Robinson to Baltimore for infielder Robert Andino. Andino plays a solid shortstop along with pretty much every other position and will likely be the primary back-up infielder for Seattle next year. He doesn’t hit much, but that’s pretty standard for utility infielders. Some people are upset to see Trayvon go, but it’s one of those unavoidable moves I wrote about here. The Mariners were going to lose him if he didn’t make the team this spring, and that wasn’t likely to happen. It wouldn’t shock me if Robinson turns into a solid player three or four years down the road, but the Mariners can’t keep a below-average player on the roster that long, waiting for him to blossom. That’s just the way it goes. When there’s no guarantee he ever gets better, sometimes you have to move on. Continue reading →
Mariner fans frequently complain about players getting good after they leave the Mariners. Mike Morse, David Ortiz, Shin-Soo Choo, Asdrubal Cabrera, all were Mariners who got traded and then became really good. Sometimes, the complaint is made somewhat tongue in cheek, but there’s always some honest frustration burning beneath the joke. There’s no avoiding the truth: there have been Mariners or Mariner prospects who only got good after they left town. It would be really nice to have them still in uniform. It would be nice to have anyone good in uniform.
The thing is that every team has these players. Some teams have less talent in their organizations, so few of the players contribute for any team. Some organizations are especially good at evaluating their talent and trade away or release fewer players who ultimately contribute somewhere. They keep the good guys for themselves, essentially. There are ways teams can minimize the talent they let go, but they will always have some players who become stars or solid players elsewhere.
I bring this up because the Mariners are shortly going to have to part ways with a lot of players who could eventually wind up in the category of players they want back. Continue reading →
As I noted last week, it’s hard to know what the Mariners are planning this offseason. Payroll is the big question pertaining to the team on the field. According to Cot’s, they currently only have about $40 million on the books for 2013, but that only accounts for four players (one of whom hopefully won’t be on the roster–Chone Figgins), Danny Hultzen’s draft contract and a Miguel Olivo buyout. When arbitration raises and filling out the remaining roster spots are considered, I’ve heard $60 million as a likely number. I can’t imagine they plan to spend just $60 million on payroll next year. If they do, I will not be happy. That would be ridiculous, but unfortunately not impossible or even particularly surprising.
The best bet is for the payroll to rise to the neighborhood of $85 million, where it was to start 2012. That’s no guarantee, but I would expect it in that range. All of this speculation serves no real purpose, except to illustrate that they could potentially have a lot of money to spend, as well as the situation’s uncertainty. How large that amount is will determine the path they take this offseason. 2013 could bring a nearly identical team to 2012, give or take a bargain veteran. It could also bring a couple of major additions through free agency or trade. I don’t expect the Mariners will make any kind of announcement about their 2013 payroll, for negotiating purposes, so fans won’t likely know what they’re going to do until rumors spread or something happens.
All that said, there are moves the Mariners need to make and holes they need to fill. They’ve already made a great first move with the decision to bring in the fences. It’s difficult to ascertain the immediate effect of the change, but count me as one who thinks it could be huge. Even if it just gives the young hitters a little more confidence and leads to more exciting games, that’s enough for me.
Here are a few more moves that I would like to see happen. Continue reading →
Let’s take a quick break from football to talk about the Mariners. You may or may not have noticed that the Mariners’ season ended a while ago. You may or may not care. The Mariners may not have crossed your mind since about July. Most likely, you hadn’t thought about them until you noticed one of the playoff games this week and thought, “Playoffs. The Mariners must be done for the year.”
To sum up quickly, the M’s were bad, and then they were decent. Some players were disappointing, but some surprised positively. Felix is the best. And, in the end, they were pretty much exactly what we expected: a 75 win team. That’s obviously not great, but it is improvement.
This off-season is one of the more confusing I remember the Mariners facing, at least from my perspective. The Mariners front office might not be confused at all. I hope they’re not. To us on the outside, however, there are three big issues complicating any expectations:
They’re still young. More importantly, most of their young guys haven’t clearly demonstrated their capabilities. Moving forward, Seager looks like a sure bet to at least be average. Jaso clearly has a role, but whether it’s at catcher or elsewhere is less clear. Saunders was a revelation, but if you’re being picky, he’s not a sure thing at all. Montero was okay and should get better, but again, no guarantees, plus the catcher defense thing lingers. Ackley and Smoak were huge disappointments, but it seems too early to give up on them, especially Ackley. Lots of questions, few clear answers. Continue reading →
Nothing is perfect. We hear that phrase thrown around often, especially when things aren’t going well in our lives. In fact, we probably hear it too often.
Humans often get caught up in the fact that no one lives a perfect, innocent life and don’t realize that there are perfect moments, events and things that happen everyday. We drive down a country road at sunset and don’t think twice about the view. We slow dance with our closest friend, swaying to the song that makes your heart do flips but we can’t stop thinking about what we have to do tomorrow. We watch the perfection slip by while we worry. Those moments that don’t slip by are the memories we keep forever.
Felix in his perfection
Today, I was driving back from dinner with my brother, 2 sisters and girlfriend. We stumbled upon the topic of pausing moments. There are always moments that we wish we could keep going, yet they pass. I believe that if we had the ability to pause them our minds would just move on to what’s wrong with it instead of soaking it in. Humans are cynical, no matter the amount of cheer they possess. But, we don’t have the ability to pause moments and dissect them, break them down to their core and pick out what’s wrong with them. That’s why they’re perfect. You can breathe them in, realize how beautiful life is at the moment and then, before you know it, you’re back at your job on a Tuesday afternoon.
On Wednesday afternoon, August 16th, Felix Hernandez was perfect. He didn’t strike out 27 batters on 81 strikes, never allowing a batter to put the bat on the ball. It may have not been the best pitching performance the world has ever seen. But, perfection shouldn’t be weighed and measured, it should be clung to and then turned into a memory.
Every year, college football players who are headed for the NFL gather before the draft at the combine. They all have their height taken. Some are too short, some are too tall. They all run a timed sprint. Many are too slow. At the end of the week, players have gone up or down the draft board but no player is judged as perfect. There were flaws in even Andrew Luck’s game. Believe it or not, there are flaws in Felix’s game. His pitches can appear unhittable, but they aren’t. They aren’t perfect.
I was walking in from the hot tub today (I’m on vacation) around 2:15 and flipped on the TV just to see what was going on in the Mariners game. I was more interested in taking a shower, to be honest. Then, I saw what was happening. I watched the last 3 innings of Felix Hernandez’s perfect game with my brother, cousin, and sister. I honestly don’t know if there was a better circumstance to watch it under, probably, but the moment was perfect when I saw the final out of the game.
My friend Derek went to Felix’s first ever home start with me about 7 years ago (I believe that’s right). That was the only time he saw Felix pitch until today, when he sat in the King’s Court with his fiance. For there not being anything perfect in this world, that seems like perfect poetry to me.
Around this time of the year, the blog starts to focus on football. It’s not because we aren’t watching the Mariners, a couple of us usually are. It’s just that football is fresh and exciting and the Mariners, well, they aren’t. In the next couple days, we’ll probably put up posts that deal with football and move our attention away from the home town nine once again. We could debate if this was the best pitching performance we’ve ever seen. We could worry about the Seahawks quarterback controversy and who will start at linebacker for the Huskies. But, we shouldn’t. Today is reserved for dwelling in the perfect moment of Rodriguez taking a devastating 92 MPH change-up on the inside corner, Felix throwing his arms into the sky and his teammates mobbing him. We froze that moment in our minds, and filed them under the folder titled, ‘Felix Is Ours And You Can’t Have Him’. We pause because Felix Hernandez faced 27 hitters and retired them in a row. We pause, not in the perfect moment, but to realize that life can be perfect in some moments.
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