by | July 22, 2012 · 9:35 pm

Getting To Know Your Dawgs – Quarterback

Matthew has recently been working on his series about the Mariners prospects at different positions.  This seems like a good idea.  I mean, Matthew does have his Masters Degree so that means he has some good ideas once in a while.  You never knew that the amount of good ideas you had were a direct correlate to the amount of education you have, did you?  That’s why 7 year old’s ideas are so dumb.  This is a tiny bit true although I’m mocking it.

Anyway, as Matthew finishes up his series about the M’s, college football season approaches!  Husky football is vastly more interesting than the Mariners these days so my series, which is on each of the 2012 Huskies positions, should be way better than Matthew’s.  This really wasn’t a competition until I started writing this.  Read his stuff too because he’s a better writer and, if you’re interested in the Mariners farm system, it’s much more revealing.

There’s a little over a month before the Huskies kick off against San Diego State on September 1st and only about 10 days until the Huskies fall camp starts.  It will be an exciting time, as this might be Steve Sarkisian’s best Husky team so far.  We’ll have more previews on the team as the season draws.  Today, I’ll just be talking about the quarterback and will move down the list of positions over the next month (content may continue to be light for the next few weeks because of vacations and such, it’s a busy time.  Sorry!).

The quarterback position will probably always be in good hands as long as Sark is here.  There were concerns about Keith Price last season but then he turned in one of the most amazing seasons in Husky history.  While that was going on, our coach brought in two 4-star recruits to sure up the future.  This  might be the most cheerful position preview you read, so enjoy it!

Keith Price (RS JR.)

Over the next couple of seasons, Keith Price could become my favorite Husky of all time (it’s a tie between Chris Polk and Tui, at the moment).  He has a great story, he’s a great player, and, most of all, he’s just happy to be on the field, playing some ball.  His smile has won over Husky nation and I’m not sure that anyone (even opposing fans) can really root against the guy.  Oh yeah, the numbers are pretty amazing too.  Last year he passed for 33 touchdowns, over 3,000 yards and had a 67% completion percentage to boot.  He did most of that on one good leg.  I do wonder if he’ll be able to stay healthy for an entire season but we saw what he could do in the Alamo Bowl with a healthy body.

Without Chris Polk around, some have questioned if Price will be as effective.  It’s an interesting argument that has some legs but I don’t have many concerns as far as that goes.  His numbers may not be quite as efficient but the yards may go up even farther and the Dawgs should be able to muster some sort of rushing attack.

Derrick Brown (RS FR.)

Brown will enter the fall as Price’s backup, if that stays the same for the season remains to be seen.  Brown could quickly become a forgotten man on this team because of the talented kids below him and the star above him.  With that being said, if Brown performs well he’ll play as Sark has shown a willingness to play the best player.  As a quick aside, remember when that wasn’t the case?  When Tyrone Willingham was coach I had no idea if the best player at the position was playing.  I know expectation are growing for this program, as they should,  but let’s be thankful that we made the right decision on this coaching hire.  Sark may not be the guy who coaches this team in the next golden age of Husky football but he has truly done an incredible job of getting us out of a deep, dark hole.

Back to Brown, he’s a 6-3, 230 lb. guy who is a fairly mobile guy.  He’s from California and was ranked around the number 20 quarterback prospect in the nation by recruiting services.  He’ll battle it out for the backup job during camp and I expect that he’ll be listed as the backup quarterback going in to this season.  Beyond that, I really have no idea.

Jeff Lindquist (FR.)

Lindquist is from Mercer Island and is a guy that I look forward to seeing over the next few years.  I know a few people over on the island and they all raved about Lindquist.  Not so much as a football player (although he was surely great in high school) but more as a person.  He seems to truly have his head on straight (which is another thing that Sark has done well, bringing in players with good character and running a pretty clean ship).  He’s around 6-4, 220 and reminded me of a Jake Locker type style when I watched him live a few times.  He runs pretty well, although not as fast as Locker, and has a strong-arm.  He was rated in the top 10 quarterbacks by most recruiting services.

Cyler Miles (FR.)

Miles is from Colorado and had an interesting recruiting experience.  He committed to the Huskies and then almost flipped to USC at the last second before announcing he was a Dawg.  I remember signing day well since I woke up at 6:30 for it…. Anyway, Miles has the best mobility of any U-Dub quarterback.  He’s a quick guy.  His passing might not be as strong in the passing game as Lindquist but he’s faster.  The recruiting services rank these guys very evenly and they’re usually ranked around number 10.  I have no idea who will turn out to play more.  There is no consensus on who’s better but Sark is working with some good kids and I have a lot of faith that one of them will turn out.

This position is probably the best on the team right now.  You can make an argument for the secondary but I don’t think it has more talent than this one.  I hope that Price is able to stay healthy and the young guys can redshirt.  Also, any of the backups playing this year might be a bit too soon.  Sark knows what he’s doing with them though and this position is the least of my worries.  That’s a blessing, considering that it’s probably the most important position.

Thanks for reading!

Andrew

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by | July 11, 2012 · 8:12 pm

The Mariners of the Future: Third Base

I’ll dispense with the lengthy preamble for this one.  Like every other position for the Mariners, third base has good options, questions, and lots of guys with something to prove.  Not sure when I’ll get to the outfielders or how I’m going to tackle that many guys, so you might have to wait a bit for that.  Plus, I’m heading on a long vacation in a couple of days.  Sorry.  Maybe the Mariners will make a trade and clear things up for me in the meantime.

The Rundown

Think of Kyle Seager‘s pro career up to this point as a reverse on the football field.  Unexpected, exciting.  Everyone’s paying attention now, where a few seconds ago the game was a bit on the boring side.  He’s just turned past the line of scrimmage, so that danger of being caught in the backfield for a big loss is avoided, but now he has to make that defensive end who held his gap miss, or else it was just a pretty three yard run.  Seager was a bit unexpected as a third round pick in 2009.  He was the second baseman on Ackley’s UNC team, and most thought that Ackley would move to the outfield in the pros and Seager would stay at second.  Instead, Ackley moved to second, and eventually, Seager to third.

Seager’s hit more than anyone expected.  Early on, he was termed Ackley-lite, but that doesn’t seem so accurate now.  He has surprising power without quite having the eye that Ackley was supposed to have.  He started 2012 on a tear, and despite tapering off some, he’s still been one of probably the three best position players for the Mariners this year.  Right now, he’s an average or slightly wose hitter and a good defender who should only improve.  The player he is now is valuable.  The Mariners could do and have done much worse at third base (see below).  The question now is whether Seager can make that defensive end miss and go for a big gain.  To be a star, he needs to make adjustments and become a constant power threat.  He’s not likely to ever be a huge power hitter, but home runs in the 20s with 40 doubles and a .340 OBP is realistic and would make him one of the best third basemen in the league. Continue reading →

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by | July 11, 2012 · 12:14 pm

The Most Important Reason to NOT Trade Felix Hernandez

A decent argument can, and has been made (almost weekly) for trading Felix Hernandez. I think we’ve all heard the basic elements of the discussion, but let’s review.

Trade Felix:
Felix is the most valuable chip the M’s have, and the likelihood of competing for a World Series before his contract expires after 2014 looks bleak (thanks to Tex and LAA). The national assumption is Felix will land in a big market the next time he hits free agency, because one can only handle so much rain, lack of offense, and of course, losing. And oh by the way, the Mariners offense is not so hot if you’ve tuned in this past decade, and there aren’t many top tier bats in the pipeline to change this. Speaking of top tier prospects, the M’s do have them, but they are pitchers. This side says trade your best asset to acquire offense (Pineda for Montero part 2), rather than stay this depressing course.

Do Not Trade Felix:
The argument I hear for not trading Felix mainly comes, naturally, from Mariner fans. This side says to be successful, you need an ace, which Felix is, and trading him for 1-2 MLB ready players plus a handful of prospects is not equal value. Furthermore, re-signing Felix may not be impossible based on his steadfast comments about the city and organization, and his desire to be a Mariner. Check out his comments from just two days ago:

“I’ve got two more years to go on my contract,” said Hernandez. “It’s not my decision. But I would love to stay. I love Seattle. I love the organization, and the city. I would be disappointed [to be traded],” Hernandez added. “I don’t think they will do that. I love them. And I think they like me, too.”

Lastly, what’s the rush to trade him now? Whether Seattle can contend before 2015 remains to be seen, but if two years from now the team is still struggling, and a trade must be made, Felix will still demand a nice package in return.

If you just consider the main points of each side, from 30,000 feet trading Felix looks logical, and inevitable. The trade Felix side has a compelling case. But let’s land this plane in Seattle, and dissect the lesser discussed, but most important reason the M’s should not trade Felix Hernandez: The Mariners needs an ace, yes, but more importantly, they need a face.

As a long suffering Seattle sports fan, I (and the other Good Guys) have insight and a pulse of the sports community that national writers and transplant Seattleites just don’t have. This town has seen too much losing, both in the record column, and in seeing it’s homegrown stars depart at the peak of their career. This list is long, headlined by the likes of Ken Griffey Jr., Alex Rodriguez, Randy Johnson, Gary Payton, Shawn Kemp, Kevin Durant, Rashard Lewis, Joey Galloway, and Steve Hutchinson. These are the superstars that began their pro career in Seattle, then for various reasons left in their prime, leaving fans wondering what if? The other list is short, most notably Edgar Martinez, Ichiro, Shaun Alexander, Walter Jones, and old timers Steve Largent and Fred Brown. Adding Felix to this list would mean so much more than a couple prospects that may or may not become MLB players.

Losing Felix via trade or free agency would not only hurt on the baseball diamond, but the morale blow and symbolic loss would be felt for years. To this day I wonder what Kemp and Payton could have been had they stayed in Seattle another 5 years. Or those mid-90’s Mariners that had the best core in baseball, could Jr., A-Rod and Randy have brought Seattle a World Series? I tend to think yes. The Mariners especially can ill afford to lose a superstar, given its history of doing so, and also its current public relations state. Felix has made clear time and time again his desire to be a Mariner, and he backed his words by signing a 5 year extension. The Mariners owe the fans to put up a fight to keep Felix in Seattle past 2014, rather than trading him. He is too unique, too special, too important to this city, both in the short and long term. He is the king, our ace, our face.

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by | July 7, 2012 · 9:55 pm

The Mariners of the Future: Shortstop

We’re back with a look at the players in the Mariners’ system who could play a role with the big league club in the next few seasons.  Today we look at the shortstops.

Before we look at actual players, let us take a moment to share a few words about that most important of ball-handlers, the shortstop.  Throughout baseball lore, the shortstop has been the lynchpin of the defense, the captain of the infield.  From the first days of little league, the most athletic, best fielder assumes responsibility for that huge patch of land between second and third, and that doesn’t change no matter how far one goes in baseball.  They must cover the most ground and field the most balls.  They have to have lightning for feet, a rocket for an arm, and the grace of a dancer around second base. Aside from the pitcher, the shortstop is the most important person on the field.

For all those reasons, little offense has traditionally been expected of shortstops.  It was enough to do all of the above, and if one could chip in with the bat occasionally, so much the better.  Those who could field the position and hit are legends.  Honus Wagner is still considered the best shortstop of all time, and he played before Babe Ruth.  There have been teams who sacrificed defense to gain some offense at short, but far more often teams have leaned the other way.  It’s always tempting to think that a good hitting shortstop will have a big enough offensive impact to offset weak defense, but the fact that so few managers are willing to play a bad defender is an argument that statistical analysis is hard-pressed to counter. Continue reading →

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by | July 5, 2012 · 7:00 pm

A Recruiting Explosion!

I hope everyone enjoyed your holiday, ate lots of food and shot off some fireworks.  Speaking of fireworks, the Dawgs have had an explosion in the football recruiting world.  Since last Friday, the Huskies have picked up 8 verbal commitments.

Seven of those commits came last Friday during Washington’s Rising Stars camp.  Many recruiting experts expected the Huskies to pick up at least a few commits but no one thought the Dawgs would pick up 7.  Since the news broke, there hasn’t been a ton of information written about these new commits so I’ll review each of the guys with as much information as I can find (it won’t be a ton).  I used Scout for their rankings, although those rankings may be updated sometime soon as they enter the football season.

RB Lavon Coleman (Lompoc, CA) – 5-11, 210

Coleman is a 4-star recruit and ranked number 26 in the country at the position.  As a junior, Coleman ran for 2,038 yards and 28 touchdowns.  I don’t know if you put any stock in this but his team went undefeated and won the state championship.  Coleman is obviously well thought of, being ranked that high.  He had offers from almost all of the Pac-12 as well as Boise State.  From his video, he doesn’t seem to be afraid of contact and bounces off tacklers.

WR Demorea Stringfellow (Moreno Valley, CA) – 6-3, 195

Stringfellow is also a 4-star recruit and ranked number 11 overall at his position.  With this commit, the Huskies have wrapped up two of the biggest wide receivers on the west coast (the other being Darrell Daniels).  Demorea pulled in some offers from big name schools like Florida, Nebraska, USC, Michigan and most of the rest of the Pac-12.  He’s another tall receiver that is the kind we expect Sark to go after.

OG Andrew Kirkland (Portland, OR) – 6-5, 290

Kirkland didn’t commit with the rest of these guys but he did give his verbal 4 days later.  He’s rated as a 3-star recruit and number 43 overall at the offensive guard position.  He plays tackle in high school but the recruiting services see him moving inside because he moves well for his size.  Kirkland had a few offers out there and it was nice to take him away from the Oregon schools.

OT Poasi Moala (Moreno Valley, CA) – 6-5, 265

Moala is from the same school as Stringfellow.  He’s a 3-star commit and ranked 50th overall as an offensive tackle.  He has received an offer from about half of the Pac-12.  Moala doesn’t have the weight some of these guys do but he moves well and held his own against some big defensive linemen during the camp.

DT Andrew Basham (Lynnwood, WA) – 6-4, 305

Basham is listed as both an offensive and defensive tackle but it sounds like he was recruited on the defensive side.  He’s a big guy and is rated as a 3-star recruit and number 72 overall at his position.  Basham had received offers from Oregon State and Arizona State and I wouldn’t be surprised if more were to come.

DT Elijah Qualls (Petaluma, CA) – 6-2, 279

Qualls was a guy many had hoped would commit last week and, sure enough, he did!  He’s rated as a 4-star recruit and 16th overall at the defensive tackle position.  He seems to be a little raw but has all the physical gifts you could want.  He plays running back in high school so that lets you know how athletic he is.  Qualls seems like he could go play just about anywhere he wants, as his offer list is quite impressive.

DE Daeshon Hall (Lancaster, TX) – 6-6, 220

Hall was committed to Texas before deciding to look around.  Anytime you pull a guy away from Texas, you’re doing something right.  Hall did go to school in Seattle until a few years ago and may be moving back here for his senior year of high school.  He’s a 4-star recruit and ranked 18th overall at the defensive end position.  Hall is extremely athletic and profiles to be in the ‘rush end’ position (like Josh Shirley now.

OLB Caleb Tucker (Monroe, LA) – 6-2, 225

Tucker was the biggest surprise out of this group and is still kind of unheard of.  We don’t know much about him, as he comes from Louisiana.  I’d like to see how many Husky players have come from Louisiana.  Anyway, he’s a 2-star recruit (for now) and ranked 137th at the outside linebacker position.

Previously, the Huskies have received commitments from 8 other guys, including a 4-star quarterback and a 4-star wide receiver.  The team has 16 known verbal commits.  They will probably not keep all of those players committed, which is just the way it goes in this day and age.  They are off to a good start though and are in on some big names.  They’ll probably take about 25 guys in this recruiting class.

Thanks for reading,

Andrew

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by | July 2, 2012 · 12:10 am

Danny Hultzen and Other Tacoma Notes

It was a fairly busy sports weekend in the Seattle area, and I spent the weekend going to a few baseball games.  Sandwiched in between the Rainiers on Thursday and Mariners on Saturday was one of the biggest recruiting days in Husky football history.  I’ll hopefully get to that tomorrow.  The Mariners don’t have much to talk about aside from Munenori Kawasaki being extremely awesome, so I’ll start off recapping the weekend by writing about how my weekend started.

On Thursday, Matthew, our cousin (and loyal blog reader) Tyler, and I made the trek down to Tacoma to see the Danny Hultzen-Jamie Moyer match-up.  A trek it was.  It took us two and a half hours to get from Bellevue to Tacoma but that’s beside the point, this isn’t a traffic blog, it’s a sports blog!  Although, a traffic blog may be more entertaining than talking about the Mariners sometimes.  Anyway, we missed one of Hultzen’s innings because of traffic but caught his other 3 innings.

The future Mariner has a hunched over windup, kind of like his shoulders are slouching.  Other than that, the rest of his windup was pretty standard.  His right foot starts a little bit in front of the rubber and steps to the side, more than it steps backwards.  There’s a fairly normal leg kick and his arm comes a little higher than the 3/4’s slot.  His follow-through is fairly normal (more on that later) as well.  Here’s some video of the start.  His fastball sat at about 93 and he flashed 96 twice up on the radar gun (I don’t think the radar gun was hot or anything because Moyer was about where he has been all season and even below that at times).  We didn’t see much of his change-up because he didn’t seem to have a lot of control of it.  Maybe it was just an off night for that pitch, as it’s usually a plus pitch for him.  His slider had tons of movement, although he didn’t have plus control on that either.  It was a great strikeout pitch though.

Hultzen walked 4 guys in 4 innings during the game.  All of the walks came when Hultzen was pitching out of the stretch.  Hultzen often switched his between a slide-step and a high leg kick when runners were on first base.  Based on the video, I think he’s a little better when he’s not using the slide-step.  Maybe he doesn’t have a good pick-off move (he didn’t use one, that I recall) but a good amount of lefties get away with not using a slide-step.  His control was definitely a problem out of the stretch.

Another problem Hultzen seemed to have was finishing his pitches.  Matthew picked up on it right away, and after watching the video I have to agree with him.  In the second inning, when Danny got into some trouble, he seemed to really struggle with this.  By not finishing his pitch, I mean to say that his leg and arm didn’t follow through as much as they usually do.  To use the famous phrase, he was trying to “aim it and not throw it.”  It was especially apparent on off-speed pitches (this gave the pitch away to some hitters) but there were a few fastballs where it seemed to be a problem as well.

All in all, Danny was good.  There weren’t many hard hit balls, the issue was strictly control.  He has great stuff and will succeed.  He does have to work through this control issue.  I don’t know if the mechanical things I mentioned are a constant problem or just an abnormality.  If anyone goes to see him in Tacoma again (he’ll pitch again on Tuesday) look for what I mentioned and let us know.

I’ve got a few more thoughts on Nick Franklin, Triunfel, and Peguero after the jump.  Continue reading →

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by | June 27, 2012 · 8:24 pm

Reasonable Expectations

We’ve recently had a flurry of Mariners activity on the blog, which is surprising considering how boring the Mariners’ activity has been.  Matthew has been on a posting roll though, and I’m not about to stop him.  With that being said, I’m going to change pace for the night and talk about some Husky football.  What’s that, football?  You thought we forgot about you?  Sorry that you feel that way and that you felt neglected.  The Good Guys recognize your that you are only about a month and seven days from camp starting and we will proceed to talk about you more often.

There’s a reason I don’t write about college football much from spring football to the start of the fall camp.  All that’s happening in the college football world is endless speculation and I don’t care much about what national ‘experts’ have to say about the Huskies because it usually contains 3 topics, “Keith Price, ASJ, and a terrible defense.”  They aren’t usually wrong but they aren’t giving me any new information.  But, today I wandered down to the store and picked up my first college football magazine of the season.  I do enjoy reading those because it marks the start of the college football period to me and the part about local teams is generally written by local writers who know what they’re talking about.

Anyway, I was struck by how well thought of Shaq Thompson is.  I was stoked when he committed but, with the crazy amount of activity that goes on during signing week, the true excitement never really sunk in.  That got me thinking, what can we reasonably expect from Shaq Thompson this year?

I’ll start off (because the last three paragraphs were for the benefit of getting my brain working and didn’t actually count as part of this post.  Tricked you!) by saying the Huskies have never had an incoming freshman as highly ranked as this.  Old news, right?  Well, yes but it’s easy to forget and something we have to think about to do research on past players of this magnitude.  Recruiting ranking services have only grown in the last few years but have been around for a long time.  I’ll take my research back until 2002 because that’s how far Rival.com and Scout.com have their data going back to.  Since 2002, the Huskies have only had one defensive 5-star recruit.  So, this is kind of unprecedented territory for the Dawgs.  Here is the names and the amount of success the Huskies 5-star commits have had since 2002 (all rankings were from Scout because I like their local scouting more than Rivals).

Donny Mateaki (DE) 2002 – Mateaki was ranked 4th overall at his position and 44th in the top 100.  Mateaki was a starter throughout most of his career but never was at an all-conference level.

Jon Lyon (TE) 2003 – Lyon was ranked at 40th overall and 4th at his position.  He was at a JC though  Lyon was also a starter but wasn’t close to a star.

Kavario Middleton (TE) 2008 – Middleton was ranked 3rd at his position and 29th overall, as well.  We know the story here, Middleton was clearly talented but didn’t mesh well with coaching staffs and left UW without making much of a mark.

Kasen Williams (WR) 2011 – Williams was ranked 2nd at his position and 22nd overall.  That makes him the highest on this list.  Obviously, he’s only played one year and started in the latter half of the year.  He has a promising future.

Austin-Seferian Jenkins (TE) 2011 – ASJ was also second at his position and 32nd overall.  The same goes as above, promising but not proven.

Wow, what a terrible list.  Sure, Kasen and ASJ look good thus far but the rest of this list is not much to write home about.  None of them had a significant NFL career, although I’d be shocked if that didn’t change with ASJ and Kasen.  This doesn’t bode well for Shaq but, then again, those guys weren’t ranked in the same league he is as far as the ratings go and this is just some bad luck.  It does go to show that 5-star guys aren’t always sure things.  All 5 of these guys did contribute in their true freshman season though.  The next list is the top rated safeties (what Thompson was) dating back to 2002.

2002 – Pat Watkins, FSU – Watkins didn’t play until his sophomore year in college but then did go on to have a pretty successful career.  He was drafted in the 5th round and played for about 5 years in the NFL.  Watkins wasn’t at the highest college level but he was a very good player.

2003 – Brandon Owens, Minnesota – Owens was injured his junior year and didn’t return from the injury.  He played as a true freshman and was good but not a star.

2004 – Drew Kelson, Texas – Kelson played 4 years in Texas and played as a true freshman.  He was a draft prospect but didn’t have much of an NFL career.

2005 – Kenny Phillips, Miami – Phillips played his true freshman year and had the most successful career of any guy so far on this list.  He was drafted 31st overall in 2008 and has been successful in the NFL.

2006 – Myron Rolle, FSU – Rolle played right away as well and a very successful college player (although probably not to the level of Phillips) and was drafted in the 5th round.  He was great but I think the guy behind him was probably more well thought of.  That guy is Taylor Mays.

2007 – Chad Jones, LSU – Jones was very successful and played on offense and defense.  We could see some of that from Thompson.  He was drafted in the 3rd round.

2008 – Will Hill, Florida – That’s a cool name!  Hill played right away for Florida and was named to the All-SEC freshman team.  He had a successful career but wasn’t at an all-conference level.  He was signed as an undrafted free agent after playing arena football and is now with the New York Giants (the last 4 guys have all played for the Giants at one point or another.  Weird).

2009 – Craig Loston, LSU – Loston’s career at LSU will probably last until 2014 and he’s been injured in the past 3 seasons.  There still seems to be some promise in him.

2010 – Keenan Allen, Cal -Allen is a wide receiver at Cal and I debated whether I should move him to the number 2 ranked safety.  I decided no, obviously, because Allen has been so successful at Cal.  He started right away and has been awesome for them and for Matthew who is his Pac-12 fantasy football league owner.

2011 – Ha’Sean Clinton-Dix, Alabama – Clinton-Dix (which is a hilarious name when you think about it) seems to have red-shirted last year, but at a place like Alabama that’s not so surprising.

So, that was a list of 10 guys.  There weren’t any huge superstars (aside from maybe Allen and Phillips) but only 2 of the 10 red-shirted their freshman year.  Most of them made the NFL and several played on both sides of the ball.  This list is a lot more promising than the Huskies group of 5-star guys.

For the last list, I compiled all of Scout’s recruits (since 2002) that were ranked number 3 overall.  I’m not going to provide any analysis on them until the end.  In 2003 and 2004, Scout didn’t rank the top 300.

  • 2002 – Devin Hester
  • 2005 – Eugene Monroe
  • 2006 – Sam Young
  • 2007 – Marvin Austin
  • 2008 – Julio Jones
  • 2009 – Jacobbi McDaniel
  • 2010 – Robert Woods
  • 2011 – De’Anthony Thomas

I didn’t include analysis because the only thing I can really add is that these guys are really good.  Sam Young may be the worst of the group and he was on the freshman All-American team and has had a decent NFL career.

All of that information and partial analyzing leads me to believe that Shaq Thompson is likely to play this year.  In all of the players that I listed, all but 6 played in their true freshman year.  I don’t think we can expect him to be a star right away though.  Even De’Anthony Thomas went through growing pains in his first year.  With that being said, Thompson is likely going to be the best defensive talent we’ve seen on the Huskies since the 90’s.  Sure, sometimes these guys flop but looking through the history of recruits ranked this high shows that most have a high success rate.

Don’t expect the Huskies defense to be great because Shaq Thompson is on the field.  It takes 11 guys and even Shaq will have a few problems but the Huskies are a lot better with Thompson than they are without him.  Keep your expectations reasonable but be excited, especially when you read those pre-season magazines.

Thanks for reading,

Andrew

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by | June 26, 2012 · 7:14 pm

Justin Smoak: He’s (not) So Hot Right Now

This morning, Dave Cameron over at USS Mariner wrote a post that essentially said it’s time to give up on Justin Smoak.  His argument is well researched and laid out, as always.  I don’t always agree with Cameron, but this one’s kind of hard to argue with.

You can read the post and form your own opinions.  I’m in favor of giving Smoak more time, at least into the first half next year, but my hope is wearing thin as well.  The Mariners should definitely be thinking about replacements, as I’m sure they are.  Getting Mike Carp healthy and hitting would be a good start.

Cameron’s post got me thinking about something else, though.  Smoak has been very good at times.  Not very many times, but the beginning and end of 2011, May this year, he was the type of first baseman with which a team can fight for the pennant.  Obviously, the problem is that those hot streaks are vastly outnumbered by his cold streaks, and when Smoak is cold, he’s ice cold.

The  question that came to mind is, why do players even have hot and cold streaks.  More importantly, when do we look at hot streaks as a sign of what should be expected as a player matures?  Streaks can be the product of circumstances, or maybe of being “in the zone”, as they say.  I don’t think there are any generalizations to be made on hot streaks.  They’re just one of those weird sports things.  Sometimes a player is feeling it, sometimes they’re not.

A streak can be a streak, or it can be a glimpse of the future.  What’s difficult with a younger streaky player like Smoak is when you have to decide whether the hot streaks or cold streaks are closer to his true ability.  He clearly has the talent or physical tools to be an all-star level bat.  His hot streaks have proven that.  The question is whether he needs that extra bit of oomph, that whatever it is that players feel when they get hot, to reach that level.

As Mariner fans, we have to hope not.  We need Smoak to grow and improve to the point where that upper level he occasionally reaches becomes closer to his normal level of production.  He needs consistency, and some good luck.  He also seems to need to get the voices out of his head.  Confidence doesn’t appear to be one of Smoak’s attributes.

Whatever the issues, the Mariners are running out of time to see what Smoak can become.  His hot streaks need to become his normal level of production.  As much as I want it to happen, I’m not holding my breath.

-Matthew

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