by | July 17, 2010 · 12:44 pm

The Rebuilding Process, Year 3

A couple weeks ago I wrote about Years 1 and 2 of the rebuilding process the Mariners are in, orchestrated by Jack Zduriencik. With year 2 nearing completion, let’s look ahead to year 3 of rebuild mode.

Following this 2010 season, the Mariners will likely find themselves less ahead of schedule than what had been anticipated going into this season. The 85 wins in 2009 will be followed up with something like 65-70 wins. The Mariners do not have much money coming off the books, and their best player from 2009, Cliff Lee, is wearing a Texas uniform at the moment. In some ways, things may look bleak for the Mariners after this season. However, looking again at the big picture of rebuilding in 3-4 years, I think the positives still outweigh the negatives because of the strengthened farm system, the lack of bad contracts, and a strong nucleus that are all signed (Ichiro, Felix, Smoak, Guti).

Rewind with me again to November 2008. The Mariners were a mess, kind of like the Seahawks are today, and similar to Husky football after the Willingham era concluded. In each case, our team needed to blow things up and rebuild. This happens in sports, and typically, rebuilding takes 3-4 years. Of course the Yankees can do it in 1 year, and the Royals or Pirates need about 10 years, but for a Seattle team in a good market, 3-4 years is about the norm. This season it appeared the M’s might be able to take advantage of a weakened division and some savvy trades, and take the shortcut from rebuilder to contender in just 12 months. But 2010 has not panned out, and while it looks like the M’s are going to have to start over again once this year ends, the reality is the foundation for rebuilding was laid a year ago, and Seattle is finishing year 2 of a 3-4 year rebuilding process.

In his “Wait ‘Til Next Year” series, Matthew recently broke down each position, and forecasted the roster heading into next season. Certainly a common theme in these posts is the uncertainty at multiple positions, but despite the question marks, the M’s will continue building around a solid group that will surely include Felix, Ichiro, Ackley, Gutierrez, Figgins, Saunders, Smoak, Pineda, Vargas and Fister. Others from the current roster will be back next year, and some will not, and additions will need to be made, either via trade, free agency, or growth in the farm system. Given how difficult it is to predict trades, let’s look at the unrestricted free agent crop for 2011, and specifically, free agents that may be realistic targets for the Mariners, give their needs. Yes, Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte, and Derek Jeter may hit free agency, but again, this list only includes realistic targets, at positions the M’s may have an interest.
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by | July 16, 2010 · 9:36 pm

Nicolas Cage and the Mariners

My friend decided today that he was going to have a Nicolas Cage marathon.  Being the ridiculous person I am, I thought it was a great idea.  Nicolas Cage is my least favorite actor.  This marathon could give me a new perspective on why he has taken that role in my life.  Truth to be told, I only made it through one movie before other things came up but that was enough time to make me think of a few Nic Cage and Seattle Mariner similarities.

  • Both Nicolas Cage and the Mariners do the same thing over and over again.  Nicolas Cage has acted the same role in about 20 different movies.  The Mariners have lost about 40 games in the same fashion this year.  They just don’t know anything different and couldn’t do anything different if they tried.
  • Both are amazingly mediocre and then have spurts of being terrible.  Lets look at the National Treasure movies.  There is not much wrong with those movies but then again, there isn’t much right with those movies.  You might watch it if it were on TV but have you ever heard anyone say the National Treasure movies were there favorite?  If you have, you should have hit that person.  The Mariners are very mediocre.  They keep games close and don’t get blown out all that often but they don’t possess the firepower to win many of those games.  Then, all of a sudden, Nic Cage makes Bangkok Dangerous.  That is one of the worst movies I’ve ever seen.  He’ll make a few more mediocre movies and then make The Sorcerer’s Apprentice.  I haven’t seen that but it has to be terrible, right?  The Mariners are mediocre, their pitching goes away and they’re terrible and the cycle repeats.
  • When Wak lets Sean White pitch for too long bad things happen and it’s disgusting.  When Nicolas Cage lets his hair grow too long he looks disgusting and bad movies happen.
  • Both make you fall asleep.  At least I know I’ve fallen asleep to both.
  • Last but not least, both make me somewhat happy.  Yes, I saved the cheesy one for last.  For some reason, watching Mr. Cage cracks me up.  He should take that as an insult but at least I’m enjoying myself when he’s on the screen.  He keeps me coming back to see how bad he’s gotten.  The Mariners keep me coming back too.  Whether it’s to watch Felix, see Smoak and Saunders develop, make fun of Rob Johnson, or see Ichiro being Ichiro, I don’t miss many games.  Sure, both make me feel sick at times but they also make me happy.

I’m going to go watch The Wicker Man now.  Have a good weekend everyone.

Andrew

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by | July 14, 2010 · 5:35 pm

Who’s More Interesting, Rainiers or Mariners?

As Joe already posted today, Dustin Ackley has been promoted to triple-A Tacoma.  This is a move that most people saw coming at some point.  After a very slow start, Ackley has put up numbers that are close to what the experts expected.  He will only be playing second base for the Rainiers, which is good news as they push his development forward.

I’ve never followed the Mariners farm system until the last couple years.  Sure, I knew who the most promising prospects are but I didn’t know much else.  That changed this year.  This is partially because the Mariners are so disappointing and partially because the Mariners farm system has suddenly become interesting again.  It’s become so interesting that, with this recent Ackley call-up, it’s hard for me to choose which team I’d rather go watch.

I thought I’d take a closer look at this by going through both teams position by position (Matthew’s series preview style).  I’ll pick the starter who I find more interesting.  This doesn’t mean I think they’re better, it just means that I’d rather watch them.  This may be because of the potential they have.  Here we go:

Catcher:  Mariners: Rob Johnson/Josh Bard.  Rainiers:  Adam Moore.  To tell you the truth, I don’t want to watch any of these guys.  If you’ve read anything I’ve posted on here, you should know my hate of Rob Johnson.  Josh Bard is fine but he definitely isn’t the future.  Adam Moore is the future at this position but after his terrible first half with the M’s (before getting injured) left a bad taste in my mouth.  He has put up good numbers in Tacoma and his ability to hit with power to the opposite field is enough to give him the edge here.  Plus, he can catch which is more than Rob Johnson can say.

1st Base:  Mariners:  Justin Smoak.  Rainiers:  Mike Carp/Brad Nelson.  Justin Smoak is awesome and has more potential than almost anyone in this organization.  If anyone says that Mike Carp or Brad Nelson are more interesting or exciting than Justin Smoak then you probably shouldn’t be talking to them.  Mike Carp might be average someday and Nelson might be an okay pinch-hitter in the bigs.  Justin Smoak could be a star.

The rest of the positions after the jump.  Continue reading →

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by | July 14, 2010 · 10:37 am

Dustin Ackley promoted to AAA Tacoma

Tacoma Rainiers games are a fun time anyway, but now more than ever. With Pineda and Ackely there now, the future is looking bright (I am trying to be Mr. Optimistic here!).

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by | July 13, 2010 · 2:00 pm

Felix Gets Snubbed

I’ve been sitting around today listening to pre-game coverage of the all-star game.  I keep seeing the rosters pop up on the ESPN tracker and one name is missing, it’s Felix Hernandez.  Needless to say, I’m a little biased but let me go on.  Felix was initially left off of the roster when it came out and that didn’t seem that weird.  Cliff Lee had clearly been the Mariners’ best pitcher and Felix did have a few rough spots through the first month or two.  The King said it wasn’t a big deal that he was left off the squad but his true fans know otherwise.  Felix loves the personal stuff.  Yes, he wants to see his team win more than anything but he also wants to pick up all the awards and accolades possible along the way.  After Felix was left off the team, and right before, he’s gone on a tear.  Quite similar to last years season Felix has become absolutely dominant.  He’s thrown 3 complete games in his last 4 starts and his ERA has dropped below 3.00.

Two pitchers were added to the AL team the day after Felix’s complete game against the Yankees on Saturday.  For some reason, Girardi picked two guys other than Felix.  He said it was because Felix had thrown 126 pitches the night before and wasn’t added because of that.  His quote made it seem like he was doing the Mariners some big favor by not adding him to the team.  Yes, Felix has thrown too many pitches this year and probably needs a little break here but I don’t think it’s right to leave someone off the team because he threw too many pitches.  You could at least invite him and let him soak in the experience.  He could earn the all-star incentives that are most likely in his contract.  He could get his well-deserved cheer from the crowd.  He could show that the Mariners have one of the best young pitchers in baseball.  Instead he’s left to watch it.

Is this a big deal?  No, not really.  The all-star game isn’t the most exciting thing even if “this time it matters.”  But I keep hearing how the NL has a better pitching staff with more dominating names and I can’t help but think that wouldn’t be so true if the king would have been there.

Andrew

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by | July 10, 2010 · 10:20 pm

The Last 2 Days

Yesterday I returned home from a 3 week stint working at a Young Life camp.  Without cell phone service and limited internet connections, I wasn’t able to keep up with sports the way I usually do.  But what a day yesterday was to return to the real World.  As soon as I got cell phone service I received a text message from Matthew saying that the Mariners were about to trade Cliff Lee for Jesus Montero.  I was ecstatic about this.  When I left this kind of offer was a little bit crazy to even dream about. 

Then, the deal was off.  Some people say it was Adams ankle injury that ended this deal.  I’m no expert but that’s not the case.  The deal was off because the Rangers offered Justin Smoak.  No one knows if Smoak will be better than Montero at this point.  There’s only so much scouting reports can tell us and they sure can’t predict the future.  If there is one thing that our GM excels at though it’s talent evaluation so we have to trust him at this point, in my opinion.  By now, if you’re at all interested in the Mariners you’ve heard the scouting reports.  Justin Smoak is an above average defender with a bat that should hit for a pretty good average and 25-30 home runs.  He has a good eye and is a switch hitter (although he has some pretty drastic splits thus far).  I’ve heard comparisons from John Olerud to Mark Teixeira but the one I most agree with after reading everything available is Adrian Gonzalez.

The 2 pitchers acquired should be contributors in the future.  One is in the mold of a Doug Fister type starter except with a little more velocity.  The reliever seems to be a pretty standard guy.  He has a plus fastball and slider and has amazing K/BB rates in the minors.  He could be in the bullpen by next year.  The other guy might turn out, he might not. 

I’m excited about this deal.  Cliff Lee might have given the Seattle Mariners the best 2 months of pitching they’ve ever had.  I could do a whole different post on this but, to put a long story short, he was absolutely amazing.  He might go help the Rangers win the World Series.  Which leads me to the question that many fans might be asking, “Should I still cheer for Cliff Lee even if he’s playing for a division rival?”  My answer is yes.  I mean, why not?  The Mariners are not going to come back in this division and the Rangers are an exciting team.  They have young talent that’s easy to root for.  It’s not like Cliff Lee is going to re-sign with them anyway.  As of yesterday the Rangers became the AL team that I will cheer for to make the World Series. 

Back to the trade, it is awesome for a couple of reason.  This trade will not hurt the Mariners this year because the Mariners suck this year.  This trade won’t hurt the Mariners in the future because Cliff Lee won’t be there in the future.  You know who will be with the Mariners in the future?  Justin Smoak.  I saw a commenter at Lookout Landing say we basically just made a prospect swap, dropping Phillipe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, and Juan Ramirez and picking up Justin Smoak, Blake Beaven, Josh Lueke, and Matt Lawson all the while we got to see some of the best pitching anyone has ever seen.  The prospect swap was awesome by Baseball America standards. 

Both of the big names made their debuts tonight and both were bad.  Don’t read into this.  We all know Cliff Lee is awesome and Smoak is still in his rookie season figuring things out.  This trade will definitely not be “won” or “lost” by the Mariners this year.  We won’t be able for figure that out for a few years.  I would argue that it’s almost impossible for the Mariners to lose this trade but I’ll save that.  The Rangers could lose this one easily, I think.  Although they won’t if they go on to win the World Series. 

The game tonight was awesome.  Lopez barely hit that ball out (classic Jose Lopez) but when he dropped that bat and looked towards the dugout I could feel the frustration he released with that hit.  I don’t care for Lopez as a baseball player but you have to feel for him, along with countless other Mariners, as he is having just an awful year.  It was the first game I’ve got to watch since coming home and it was so much fun to watch.  I sure do hate the Yankees. 

Well this post has rambled on long enough.  I have too much to say and not enough patience to organize those thoughts right now.  I’ll just end with this:  Good job Mariners, in a season that’s gone incredibly wrong, the last 2 days worked out about as well as they could have.

Andrew

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by | July 9, 2010 · 11:21 am

Cliff Lee Almost a Yankee

1:00 Update:  Should have waited 45 minutes on this.  Sounds like the deal might be off, which could just be negotiations or could mean another team made a really huge offer.  I guess we’ll see.

I planned to write a post about the various Cliff Lee rumors today before leaving on vacation tonight, but it looks like that won’t be necessary.  Barring the deal falling apart at what sounds like the last minute, Cliff Lee will be a Yankee by the end of the day.  He’ll be dealt or the deal will be off before he makes his start tonight, which means he’ll likely never play another game in a Mariners uniform. 

If the rumored deal is correct, the Mariners will get a haul, mostly in the form of one Jesus Montero.  He’s a catcher who will likely end up a 1B or DH, but his power bat is maybe the best in the minors.  He struggled to start the year as a 20-year-old at AAA, but has turned it around in the last few weeks.  Being 20 in AAA entitles him to some struggles, so no real worries.  I’ve seen his bat compared today to Frank Thomas, Manny Ramirez, and Edgar Martinez “with more raw power”.  There are never any guarantees with prospects, but he has more offensive potential than any Mariner minor leaguer since… I don’t know, Alex Rodriguez?

The rest of the deal is likely to be 2B David Adams and a third guy, possibly RHP Zach McAllister, decent high-minors prospects in their own right.  We’ll have more info on them when/if the deal is finalized.  I hate seeing Cliff go, and would have loved an extension, but this is about as good a deal as I’ve hoped for.  The only person realistically discussed whom I would prefer over Montero is Justin Smoak, and there’s no guarantee he’ll be better than Montero.  There’s also no guarantee Montero will be good, but if you’re going to make a move, and the Mariners are, this is a great one to make.

-Matthew

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by | July 1, 2010 · 5:15 pm

Jack Z’s Goal

I’m amazed at the variety and ferocity of the opinions expressed about the Russell Branyan trade.  Some people (myself included) are happy about it, some people think it’s the sign that Jack Zduriencik is overmatched in his job and is working on borrowed time. 

I shared my thoughts in an earlier post, so I won’t go into a lot of detail again.  People are certainly entitled to their opinions, but the railing against the trade sounds to me like a lot of frustration from a losing season, and possibly frustration that this move didn’t happen sooner.  I certainly understand that.  I do think that teams and players place a lot more weight in wins in a lost season than fans do, however.  When you start reeling off 90-loss seasons too often, it’s easy to lose respectability as a franchise.  Younger players in those situations often seem to develop into much less than what was expected of them.  I can’t think of a way to study if that’s true, but I think anyone who’s played sports even somewhat competitively will agree that learning to win is a real process, and any chance to to start on that or keep it going is important, at least in my mind.  The Mariners made a nice break in a losing culture last year.  Finding respectability again this year could be important.

All that isn’t really the reason for this post, however.  Continue reading →

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