Tag Archives: Casey Kotchman

by | April 7, 2010 · 12:09 am

Mariner Recap – 4/6/2010

The idea that the season really starts with Game 2 is common with baseball fans and writers.  Opening day has all the ceremony and a couple of aces throwing (theoretically for some teams), but the next day brings a little more routine and Ian Snell vs. Dallas Braden.  Braden was excellent.  The first couple of innings, he didn’t seem like much, but the Mariners weren’t hitting him either.  By the third or so, he had them in-between on every pitch.  Not sure he can do that every game, but he was impressive, just one well-hit Franklin Gutierrez double away from a shut out.

I’m not quite sure what Ian Snell was.  I guess you take 6 innings, 1 run, 3 hits and 2 walks however you can get them, but he just makes me nervous.  Actually, it’s not so much that he makes me nervous, it’s that I feel no confidence when he’s on the mound.  It looked a little bit like smoke and mirrors today.  Maybe he’ll get better.  I’m not writing him off, and I’ll take that outing anytime.  The problem is that if he throws like that against a better offense, the results will not be anywhere near as good.  Can he improve?  I’m not holding my breath.  His stuff looked decent at times and very hittable at others.  I guess I’ll just be happy that he didn’t get crushed and not make any judgments until we see a few more outings.

Unfortunately, the offense was everything we feared it might be tonight.  They certainly ran into an unexpected buzz-saw in Braden, but without Ichi and Figgy on base as much, with Kotchman struggling against lefties, Bradley just struggling and nothing from the bottom of the order, well that’s pretty much everyone.  Guti had the lone good day, and it still took a balk and wild pitch to score him.  It won’t always be this bad, but we’re going to see a lot of these types of games.  Some will go the M’s way, some won’t.  No reason to panic, but anytime they want to trade for a big bat, go right ahead.

Hero: Ian Snell. It wasn’t very pretty, but you have to give credit to Snell, who pitched 6 innings, and only gave up 4 hits and 1 earned run.

Goat: The Offense. 5 hits in 10 innings won’t cut it. Guti had 2 of those hits so maybe he should be exempt.

Some bullets:

  • I told Andrew a couple of times Monday how natural I thought Jose Lopez looked at third, but tonight brought a few hiccups.  Still, he didn’t make any mistakes due to a lack of tools that I could see.  That spinning throw is something he’ll get better at.  No reason to worry, I’d say.
  • We definitely saw the value of Kotchman’s defense today.  He gave no signs of being able to hit lefties at all, but he dug out a couple of tough throws, and that short-hop play he made was excellent.  Still, amazing how much worse he looked against a lefty, rolling everything over for weak grounders.  Then his first at-bat against a righty, he smoked a line drive straight to Ellis.  Time to see if Sweeney can still play first on occasion?
  • Bradley looks extremely uncomfortable at the plate, like he’s guessing on everything.  He seemed to take better cuts later in at-bats, especially in the ninth.  I’m betting once he gets a couple of hits he’ll lock in pretty good, but I’ll be anxious until that happens.  The longer he goes without success, the better the chance of something bad happening.
  • Welcome to the big leagues, Kanekoa Texeira!  Looked nervous, but that slider/sinker/whatever is nasty.  He looked a lot better than Sean White, not that that’s saying much.  Getting out of a bases loaded one out situation is no small feat, especially in your debut, even if he put himself in the situation.  Too bad he couldn’t do it again.
  • Shawn Kelley and Mark Lowe, on the other hand.  I like those guys.  Kelley is a much better pitcher than Ian Snell right now.  Just not sure that would hold true if he moved to the rotation.

Game 3: Justin Duchsherer vs. Ryan Rowland-Smith, 7:05

-Matthew

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by | April 6, 2010 · 12:46 am

Game Recap — 4/5/2010

Thank God that baseball is back.  Halfway through the game I was sitting on the couch with my brother, each of us sipping a Mexican Coke and enjoying a baseball game.  There are times in life when you know you’re at the right place and that was one of those times.  I can’t remember the last time I was able to watch opening day with my brother and, in a life where it’s vital to cherish the little things, this was one small event that I am very grateful for.

On to the recap.  The Mariners were in control for most of this game.  They played like they will for most of the year: solid pitching, good defense, and tacking on a run here and there.  For most of this game the pitching was more than solid.  Felix’s line isn’t extremely pretty but take away some bad pitches from Sean White and it would be much better.  (More on Sean White later.)  Felix was still dominating, his control just wasn’t quite where it needed to be.  He got a ridiculous amount of ground ball outs, it’s hard to remember a fly ball.  As for his control, I’m not too worried.  The umpire tonight was bad (apparently he didn’t know what  low strike was) and Felix got a little tired in the later innings.  As the King gets stretched out more and more, his command will get better.  In the 6th and 7th innings he started leaving the ball up in the zone, this is what pitchers do when they’re tired, but for the most part he missed down in the zone.  This is a good sign and will be vital against Texas next time out.

The end of Felix’s outing brought us to Sean White.  Let me just say that I’m not a Sean White fan.  He benefited from a good deal of luck last year, his FIP was 2 runs higher than his ERA.  Wak doesn’t feel the same as I do about Sean White though and therefore he put him in after Felix.  I would’ve put in League, Lowe, or maybe even Sean Kelley but that didn’t happen.  Maybe White will prove me, and other skeptics, wrong this year but if he doesn’t I’ll be anxious to see what Wak does with him in the bullpen.  Thankfully, we won this game so I don’t have to be too upset with Sean White but if he keeps costing Felix wins I will get angrier.  For now, he’s okay.

As for the other two pitchers, I was impressed.  League was what I expected.  After that Jack Wilson error I got a little nervous but he produced another ground ball that turned into a double play.  I’m excited to see League throughout this year.  Aardsma did what he did last year.  I’ve always been on the fence about Aardsma but I do like that he comes right after hitters.  He was good tonight.

The offense tonight was about what I expect for the season.  Score a run here, score a run there and then what do you know, we end up with 5 runs in a game.  This team is way more patient than last years.  I’m pretty sure we matched the amount of walks we had last year in one game (sarcasm).  It will be nice to see Figgins, Kotchman, Bradley paired with Griffey give this team a patient approach. 

The stolen bases were fun and something I expect to see a lot of.  Speed is an underrated aspect of baseball and speed is something we have. 

Hero: Casey Kotchman. He was awesome tonight. I’m a Kotchman believer and one of the few who seem to think he will produce at a higher level this year. I like him batting third in the order and am excited to see what he can do this year. The fact that he got 4 RBI and a game winning hit in his first Mariner game is pretty cool.

Goat: Sean White. I didn’t understand White being the first reliever to pitch this year, especially considering it was the 7th inning and he was entering a jam. Everyone knows how lucky White got last year on balls in play, and his inability to strike guys out scares me. Tonight’s performance confirmed my fears of White this year.

A few more quick notes after the jump. Continue reading →

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by | April 5, 2010 · 4:59 pm

Happy Opening Day!

One of the best days of the year, but there’s really not that much to say. If you don’t know everything there is to know about this team at this point, you probably don’t care all that much. So, enjoy the game and we’ll have something new to talk about afterward.

In the meantime, let’s play the always enjoyable, Which Player Would You Rather Have Game, wherein we compare each position in the Mariners’ and Athletics’ starting lineups and pick which player we’d rather have.

C: M’s Rob Johnson A’s Kurt Suzuki
Pick: Suzuki

1B: M’s Casey Kotchman A’s Daric Barton
Pick: Barton, but that’s a currently pretty sad set of 1B with decent potential

2B: M’s Chone Figgins A’s Mark Ellis
Pick: Figgins

3B: M’s Jose Lopez A’s Kevin Kouzmanoff
Pick: Lopez

SS: M’s Jack Wilson A’s Cliff Pennington
Pick: Wilson. (I know absolutely nothing about Cliff Pennington. Nice name though.)

LF: M’s Milton Bradley A’s Travis Buck
Pick: Bradley

CF: M’s Guti A’s Rajai Davis
Pick: Guti

RF: M’s Ichiro! A’s Ryan Sweeney
Pick: Ichiro

DH: M’s Griffey A’s Eric Chavez
Pick: Wow. Slim pickings (no pun intended). Chavez

P: M’s Felix A’s Ben Sheets
Pick: Felix

Mariners win, 7-4!

A few quick notes after the jump! Continue reading →

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by | March 5, 2010 · 1:52 pm

3 Topics (but none deserving a full post)

Here’s your 3 for 1 special. 3 topics of food for thought, minus the food. Enjoy.

Ackley for A-Gon
A couple days ago on 710 ESPN, Kevin Calabro was making his argument for an Adrian Gonzalez to Seattle trade. His case was that this team plus Adrian Gonzalez would be an American League favorite to make the World Series, and likely a contender next year as well. The price is never too high for glory days like Calabro was painting, and no one could disagree with the excitement that A-Gon in Seattle would bring. But while most of us talk about a package including the likes of Saunders, Carp, Lopez, Fields, Halman, Triunfel, French, Matthew Long…Calabro says give em’ Dustin Ackley if that’s what it takes. At first, it sounds ridiculous, but the more I think about it, the more intrigued I am. Here’s why.

In Ackley, you get high upside (he was the #2 pick overall last year) and the potential down the road of say, Chase Utley at 2nd base. He is also under team control for 4-6 more years. In Gonzalez, you get a stud, who has already reached the potential we can only dream that Ackley may achieve. But he is only under team control for 2 more years. Money is not much of a factor because Gonzalez will only make $10.25MM from 2010-11. What is a factor is the value over replacement that Ackley and Gonzalez may provide. Ackley might be the starting 2nd baseman in 2011, and that’s probably an upgrade over Lopez. The same can be said for Gonzalez over Kotchman at first base. But just how big would the upgrade be this year, when essentially all the stars would be aligned to go for it with the Cliff Lee and A-Gon additions? Here’s what CHONE projections say.

’10 Dustin Ackley- minor leagues, +0 WAR
’10 Jose Lopez- 19 hr, 89 rbi, .283 avg, +2.6 WAR
’10 Adrian Gonzalez- 33 hr, 98 rbi, .280 avg, +4.2 WAR
’10 Casey Kotchman- 10 hr, 58 rbi, .265 avg, +0.9 WAR

In 2010, Ackley won’t be a factor, so losing him, at least for this season, is not going to impact the wins total. In future years, his value will likely only increase. A-Gon could add 23 hr, 40 rbi, and about 3.3 wins more than Kotchman, and both play terrific defense. Is that enough to enter “go for it” mode and give up Ackley? Probably not, but whose to say Gonzalez wouldn’t re-sign and stay in Seattle just as long as Ackley would? And what if Ackley doesn’t develop and reach his potential? In Gonzalez, you have a player who already has reached his potential.

Ultimately, there are too many unknowns to pull the trigger on this deal, though I’d bet San Diego would take a deal that included Ackley. If we knew Cliff Lee would be in Seattle next year as well, then maybe you risk it all to have 2 years of win-now baseball. But Lee past this year is no guarantee, and Ackley in the next five years is too enticing to trade for what may only be two years of Gonzalez. The Mariners aren’t quite into full win-now mode so mortgaging the future with the team’s top prospect would not be wise. But come mid-July if a bidding war is on for Gonzalez and the M’s, sitting atop the AL West, don’t have a package to make the deal, maybe Ackley becomes realistic bait.

What if…
I love day dreaming about “what if” scenarios related to my Seattle sports teams. In my mind there are two types of “what if” questions; negative outcome and positive outcome. The negative scenarios seem to stick with me longer. What if Howard Schultz had sold the team to a Seattle group stead of the Okies? What if a couple penalties went our way in Super Bowl 40? What if the Seahawks had kept Hutch. What if the Mariners had drafted Lincicum over Morrow? What if Holmgren, Leiweke and Paul Allen had gotten along? Of course there are positive “what if” scenarios too, where knowing the eventual outcome makes me smile. What if Ichiro had ended up with Los Angeles? What if the ’95 team never made their August push, would baseball be in Seattle today?

The two scenarios I can’t seem to get over are both “what if” questions regarding the Mariner’s 2008 season. What if Bavasi hadn’t made the Bedard trade? And what if the Mariners hadn’t swept Oakland to end the year? My theory is that if Bedard had not been acquired, the team would have likely still sucked, because Adam Jones, Chris Tillman and George Sherrill weren’t going to make up for many more wins than Bedard provided in ’08. And if we had not swept the A’s to end the year, we would have had the #1 pick in ’09, and Stephen Strasburg would be a Mariner today. Based on these two scenarios, our rotation going forward for at least the next 3 years would have likely been Felix, Strasburg, and Chris Tillman. Wow.

NHL vs. NBA
If I had it my way, Seattle would have the NHL, NBA, and a regular PGA tour stop. As it is, we have none. In the future, I think we will have one or two of these, and I’m beginning to want the NHL more than the others. My wife is a huge Red Wings fan, so I’ve watched more hockey since getting married 3 years ago than I did the previous 20 years. Playoff hockey is amazing. So is Olympic hockey, like the world just saw. A new arena is necessary for the NHL or NBA, so this dream is still years away, but similar to how the Sounders have been received, I think a hockey team would be a sell-out machine as well. In my opinion, it’s more entertaining than the NBA, and while a new arena could bring both leagues back to Seattle, I’d rather have hockey. Build an arena, and there would be 5 or 6 teams, Phoenix, Nashville, Florida, Tampa bay, Atlanta, to name a few, fighting to get to Seattle first.

-Dan

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by | February 24, 2010 · 2:09 pm

Y2010M! Casey Kotchman

About a week ago I was hanging out with Dan.  I can’t remember exactly what we were watching but the show started showing highlights of a bunch of first basemen making errors.  Defense at first base is something that is often overlooked, but why?  In today’s baseball world, and even in the generations before us, first base is a position that is used to upgrade offense.  If a guy can hit 40 home runs that would make up for a lack of defensive range at first base.  With this in mind I thought the Mariners would try to acquire a first basemen that would upgrade our offense a couple of notches.  But that didn’t happen, our front office stayed true to their “defense first” mentality.  Ladies and gentleman, I give you Casey Kotchman.

In 2001 Kotchman was selected 13th overall in the Major League Baseball draft by the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.  He breezed through the Angels farm system and made his major league debut in 2005 as one of the top prospects in the game.  Kotchman went through several injury plagued years but played fairly well in 2007 and 2008.  He was traded to Atlanta at the trade deadline in ’08 and his production fell off as he was dealing with some family issues.  Kotchman was again traded from Atlanta to Boston in 2009.  What was once a very good prospect looked like he’d forgotten how to hit, especially how to hit lefties.  2009 wasn’t his best year, as he posted an OPS of .721 which is somewhat underwhelming for a first basemen.  Through his offensive struggles Kotchman was still seen as one of the best defensive first basemen in baseball.

This offseason he was traded from Boston to Seattle for Bill Hall.  This was an upgrade for the M’s because not many people wanted Mike Carp to be our starting first baseman.  I’ll be the first to admit I was hoping for a little something more at first base initially but the more I think about it the more I like this move.  Kotchman is low-risk, high upside move (meaning he doesn’t cost a lot and has good amount of potential).  His 7.6 UZR rating last year was among the top first basemen in the league.  His range at first base will help make up for Jose Lopez’s lack of range at second base.  And what about his offense?  Who knows, Kotchman might surprise us.  He’s a gap hitter with good plate discipline.  Maybe he’ll rediscover his approach that made him successful in 2007.  If he does, he’ll hit around .300 with and on-base percentage around .370.  If not, he’ll hit around .270 with and on-base percentage around .330.  If the latter happens, he’ll be Ryan Garko’s platoon partner at first base.  Kotchman has had pretty dramatic splits against right and left-handed pitchers the last few years.  Thus, he may play against right-handed pitching while Garko plays against southpaws. 

Truth is, I have no idea what to expect from Kotchman’s offense.  Hopefully he surprises us, much like Gutierrez did last year.  If not, we’ve seen the power of defense.  While a home run may be sexy, a defensive play to stop a run from scoring is worth exactly the same in the long run.  I’m excited to see what Casey will do this year and am fairly optimistic about his performance.  The power of defense is alive and well in Seattle and Kotchman will just add to the best defense in the league.  Lets remember the most remembered error of all time came from a first baseman (Bill Buckner), Kotchman hasn’t made an error in 185 games.

(This doesn’t mean I’m against an Adrian Gonzalez trade at all!)

Andrew

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