Tag Archives: Jack Zduriencik

by | October 30, 2011 · 1:07 am

If I Were Jack Z

Happy Free Agency! I am a sucker for hot stove talk, MLB trade rumors, and general off season gossip. I get the feeling this could be an eventful winter for the M’s, and I am thankful that Jack Z will be calling the shots once again. That being said, I thought I would speculate on some potential moves the M’s could make over the next few months, and in doing, I’ve created my off season plan.

Before delving into the plan, let’s remember where the M’s are in, and the state of the franchise. 2012 will be the 4th year of Jack Zduriencik’s regime in Seattle. He inherited a major rebuilding project, no doubt about it. Top to bottom, the organization was a mess. For 3 years, Jack has concentrated on bulking up the farm, adding depth, and above all, talent. It took a couple years to shed the dead weight—bad contacts, bad draft picks, bad hires, and despite a couple setbacks (Chone), most fans understand the path the organization is on. It’s not as though losses don’t matter, but the record is not as important as the master plan, and Jack has not deviated from building the whole system, which is really the only way to sustain success. Even the Yankees and Red Sox, for all the money they throw around, build from within as good as anyone, and this has been Jack’s focus all along.

In 2012, wins and losses will matter. The grace period is gone, and the M’s had better start producing. A .500 record should be a reasonable goal, so considering the 2011 M’s won 67 games, where does Jack find an additional 14 wins this off season?

Let’s assume the M’s payroll is set at $90-95 million, which is on par for the past 3 years. $60 million is already guaranteed for Felix, Ichiro, Guti, Ryan, Ackley, Figgins, and Olivo, so Jack will have about $30 million to fill out the roster. Next, Jack will need to address the M’s 6 arbitration eligible players: Kelley, Vargas, Aardsma, L-Rodriguez, and League. If I were Jack, I’d non-tender Aardsma, but keep the others, for what will cost about $10 million total. Some would prefer to keep Aardsma, and trade League, but the money is virtually even between the two, and I think you need to keep one. League was an all-star closer, despite his brain lapses, so unless the trade market is high for a guy like League, I’d hang onto him. Finally, another $5 million will be tied up in about 10 spots, the kids like Smoak, Carp, Seager, and most of the young relievers who all make about $450,000. With the remaining $15-20 million, and still a few holes to fill, here’s the roster I would aim to assemble (click to enlarge).

Jump ahead to see how I’d get this team put together! Continue reading →

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by | December 7, 2010 · 9:29 pm

M’s Quiet at the MLB Winter Meetings

Let me first say that I am a sucker for the annual MLB winter meetings. I love the rumors, love the trades, and the possibility of hearing the Mariners connected to a big name, like Cliff Lee last year. I follow it all on twitter, and I don’t miss a single tweet from the gurus. The winter meetings bring excitement into my life, a lot like the NFL draft. You can make your own judgments of me, but I love this stuff. So now that you see where I’m coming from, as a Mariners fan, you can understand my disappointment with this years’ winter meetings so far. I didn’t expect the M’s to be big players, unlike last year, but Jack typically makes a splash, and I have not heard anything noteworthy. I mean seriously, here’s the few M’s related tweets I’ve seen.

“AL West foes A’s & Mariners seem to be going head to head on at least 2 free agents, RHP Dennys Reyes, a reliever, and C Gregg Zaun.” – John Hickey

“Sources tell me Mariners are targeting Luis Valbuena for need at second.” -Shannon Drayer

“Sources: Strong multi-year interest for FA RHP Kevin Gregg. Offers from RedSox, Pirates, Nationals. Orioles, Mariners also in mix.” -Ken Rosenthal

“Jorge Cantu generating interest in San Diego, Seattle, Arizona.” -Tim Brown

“Rays and Mariners showing interest in free agent LHP Mark Hendrickson.” -Jon Morosi

“Mariners liked Rich Harden as a free agent last off-season — and they are interested now, too.” -Jon Morosi

“The Seattle Mariners have checked in on Eric Chavez as a possible low-risk 1B-3B-DH option if he’s healthy.” -Jerry Crasnick

On the excitement meter, these rate has major duds. I’m glad we aren’t signing guys like Jayson Werth for 7 years and $126 million, but I need something Jack! Last year, the M’s attempted to re-build and compete for the playoffs at the same time; a tricky task to say the least, and it obviously didn’t pan out. I think this year, given the strength of the Rangers and Angels, and the fact that we had the worst record in the AL last year, a major youth movement makes the most sense. Sure, Seattle could conceivably offer a package of Smoak, Pineda, etc. for a pitcher like Zach Greinke, and also sign Carlos Pena or another bat, and put together a pretty competitive team next year. But would that even be enough to challenge in the AL West? Perhaps, but it is probably best to hold onto our blue chips prospects rather than mortgage the future, and make a run in 2012.

I understand the logic, but it’s boring and frustrating. I want the M’s to be good…like NOW. Unfortunately, the waiting must continue. Maybe we will make a couple minor splashes in days to come, but the biggest moves are probably a year away.

-Dan

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by | October 16, 2010 · 12:42 pm

M’s Hire Branyan’s Big Brother

Eric Wedge, not Bobby Valentine, and not Joey Cora, will be the next manager for your Seattle Mariners. A lot of fan’s first reaction is probably that once again Chuck and Howard don’t want to pay what it takes to bring in a big name, thus we are stuck with a reincarnation of Bob Melvin or Don Wakamatsu. I’ll be honest, my first reaction was how similar this guy looks to Russell Branyan (see pic below). Fans can have whatever reaction they’d like, and no one is wrong. Seattle has seen 7 managers come and go since Lou left, so at this point, Joe Torre could have been hired and some fans would still react negatively. Personally, I think Wedge is an outstanding pick. Here’s why.

The Mariners made no secret about their desire to have an experienced manager this time around. No more rookies! In addition, it seemed safe to assume that a younger guy might be on their wish list, or at least someone who can relate well with young players, because the M’s will no doubt have a plethora of youth in 2011. Furthermore, following the Wak era, I’m sure Jack Z was looking for a manager that would not take crap from anyone (cough Figgy cough). Wedge meets all of these qualifiers, not to mention a nice track record of successfully taking over a rebuilding situation, as he did in Cleveland, eventually getting them to within 1 win of the World Series. At just age 42, Wedge has quite an impressive resume. In 2002, he was hired at age 35 by the Indians, and in 7 seasons he led the tribe to a .495 win%. Not bad for Cleveland.

Yesterday I listened to both Eduardo Perez (ex-player) and Tom Hamilton (Indians announcer), both give ringing endorsements of Wedge. The interesting point that both men made was that Wedge was fired following the ’09 season for the simple reason that Indians management wanted to turn the page, and enthuse the fan base with a managerial switch. It had little to do with Wedge, and in fact, GM Mark Shapiro fought to keep Wedge. Had Cleveland held onto Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, Victor Martinez, Franklin Gutierrez, and Brandon Phillips, Hamilton noted that “we would not be talking about Wedge in Seattle, but rather, Wedge and the Indians in the ALCS.”

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by | July 17, 2010 · 12:44 pm

The Rebuilding Process, Year 3

A couple weeks ago I wrote about Years 1 and 2 of the rebuilding process the Mariners are in, orchestrated by Jack Zduriencik. With year 2 nearing completion, let’s look ahead to year 3 of rebuild mode.

Following this 2010 season, the Mariners will likely find themselves less ahead of schedule than what had been anticipated going into this season. The 85 wins in 2009 will be followed up with something like 65-70 wins. The Mariners do not have much money coming off the books, and their best player from 2009, Cliff Lee, is wearing a Texas uniform at the moment. In some ways, things may look bleak for the Mariners after this season. However, looking again at the big picture of rebuilding in 3-4 years, I think the positives still outweigh the negatives because of the strengthened farm system, the lack of bad contracts, and a strong nucleus that are all signed (Ichiro, Felix, Smoak, Guti).

Rewind with me again to November 2008. The Mariners were a mess, kind of like the Seahawks are today, and similar to Husky football after the Willingham era concluded. In each case, our team needed to blow things up and rebuild. This happens in sports, and typically, rebuilding takes 3-4 years. Of course the Yankees can do it in 1 year, and the Royals or Pirates need about 10 years, but for a Seattle team in a good market, 3-4 years is about the norm. This season it appeared the M’s might be able to take advantage of a weakened division and some savvy trades, and take the shortcut from rebuilder to contender in just 12 months. But 2010 has not panned out, and while it looks like the M’s are going to have to start over again once this year ends, the reality is the foundation for rebuilding was laid a year ago, and Seattle is finishing year 2 of a 3-4 year rebuilding process.

In his “Wait ‘Til Next Year” series, Matthew recently broke down each position, and forecasted the roster heading into next season. Certainly a common theme in these posts is the uncertainty at multiple positions, but despite the question marks, the M’s will continue building around a solid group that will surely include Felix, Ichiro, Ackley, Gutierrez, Figgins, Saunders, Smoak, Pineda, Vargas and Fister. Others from the current roster will be back next year, and some will not, and additions will need to be made, either via trade, free agency, or growth in the farm system. Given how difficult it is to predict trades, let’s look at the unrestricted free agent crop for 2011, and specifically, free agents that may be realistic targets for the Mariners, give their needs. Yes, Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte, and Derek Jeter may hit free agency, but again, this list only includes realistic targets, at positions the M’s may have an interest.
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by | July 1, 2010 · 5:15 pm

Jack Z’s Goal

I’m amazed at the variety and ferocity of the opinions expressed about the Russell Branyan trade.  Some people (myself included) are happy about it, some people think it’s the sign that Jack Zduriencik is overmatched in his job and is working on borrowed time. 

I shared my thoughts in an earlier post, so I won’t go into a lot of detail again.  People are certainly entitled to their opinions, but the railing against the trade sounds to me like a lot of frustration from a losing season, and possibly frustration that this move didn’t happen sooner.  I certainly understand that.  I do think that teams and players place a lot more weight in wins in a lost season than fans do, however.  When you start reeling off 90-loss seasons too often, it’s easy to lose respectability as a franchise.  Younger players in those situations often seem to develop into much less than what was expected of them.  I can’t think of a way to study if that’s true, but I think anyone who’s played sports even somewhat competitively will agree that learning to win is a real process, and any chance to to start on that or keep it going is important, at least in my mind.  The Mariners made a nice break in a losing culture last year.  Finding respectability again this year could be important.

All that isn’t really the reason for this post, however.  Continue reading →

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by | June 21, 2010 · 2:02 pm

The Rebuilding Process, Years 1 & 2

    Year One

Following the disastrous 2008 season, the Mariners blew up the team, hired a new general manager, and eventually a new manager as well. Seattle was officially entering into a commonly used sports cliché, “rebuilding mode.” Jack Zduriencik wasted no time cutting bad contracts, bad draft picks, and basically any dead weight that Bill Bavasi had left behind. Entering the 2009 season, expectations were low, but excitement was building thanks to a new fresh regime. Last year’s team overachieved by most standards, thanks to a terrific record in close games, a reinvigorated team chemistry, and numerous players having career years. Needless to say, the Mariners seemed way ahead of schedule, finishing with an impressive 85-77 record. It felt like the rebuilding process might have come and gone in just 1 year.

    Year Two

Jack Zduriencik followed up the ’09 campaign by shedding the rest of the dead weight, and with new money to spend, Seattle acquired Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins, Milton Bradley, and a couple other role players. A year after expectations were low and playoff talk was not even on the radar, suddenly the 2010 season began with renewed hope and fans were encouraged to “Believe Big.” We all know how this year has unfolded. The close game fortune from last year is gone, the Griffey reunion lasted a year too long, and instead of career bests from numerous players, we are witnessing career worst performances by many. The rebuilding process we had hoped might last just 1 year is still in process. For a moment, Zduriencik saw a shortcut out of rebuild mode, but that crack was quickly closed. It was a risk worth taking, because legitimate shots at the playoffs don’t come often. A failed attempt, such as what we are seeing unfold, is upsetting, but probably won’t set the team back much. Cliff Lee is sure to be traded shortly, and the package Zduriencik gets in return will likely outweigh the 3 prospects that Seattle sent to the Phillies for Lee, and once the 2010 season is buried, Zduriencik will continue to build.

The bad contracts have been shed, the foundation has been laid, and despite this lost, tumultuous, depressing season, the Mariners are probably still on track to accomplish the long term goals that were set back in November, 2008. The high expectations heading into 2010 can easily distract us from the big picture, and while there is a lot to be frustrated about at the current moment, when looking at the full view, it’s really not that bad given where this team was just 2 years ago.

-Dan

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by | May 22, 2010 · 12:40 pm

A Cliff Lee-Jack Z Conversation

Jack Zduriencik:  Hey Cliff, want to know something neat?

Cliff Lee:  Yeah, sure.

Z:  The first letter of my last name and your full last name rhyme.

Lee:  Umm…. Yeah, that’s pretty cool.

Z:  That’s just one of the reasons you should sign an extension with us.

Lee:  How about a few more reasons?

Z:  If you insist.  You could be a part of the best 1-2 punch in baseball with King Felix for the next few years.  We could even get you a sweet nickname if you stick around.  How’s ‘Prime Minister Lee’ sound?  Or ‘Cliff the Dictator’?  I’ve got a whole list of ideas in my office.

Lee:  Sounds enticing.

Z:  You could also have one of the best defenses in baseball at your back every time you take the mound.  Don’t forget about one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball!  Your ERA could be under 2.50 for the next 4 years!

Lee:  Cool, not as cool as the nicknames but still cool.

Z:  We also have some people who you don’t want to leave here.  Cliff, you’ll never be able to get as many hugs as you do in this clubhouse.  And if you ever need someone to fight for you we’ve got this guy named Milton who’s been trying to find more constructive ways to unleash his frustrations.

Lee:  Interesting….

Z:  Seattle will grow to love you and you can become the hero that finally brings this city a world championship.

Lee:  That’s important to everyone, including me.

Z:  4 years for 75 million sound about right?

Lee:  I’ll think about it.

Z:  That’s all I ask.  Did I mention that our offense scores you 15 runs a game here?

Lee:  Umm…. In my first 4 starts they only scored a combined 10 runs Jack.

Z:  We’re pretending like we started the season two days ago.  It makes me feel much better.  Plus, you know the guy who hit 3 doubles off of you last night?  That Gonzalez fellow?  He’ll be a Mariner soon.

Lee:  Oh, sounds good.  Let the good times roll!

Andrew

(I could never be as cool as Cliff Lee, or Jack for that matter.  Cliff would never say “let the good times roll” he would say something much cooler that I can’t even dream of right now.  He is that far superior to me and everyone else.)

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by | May 15, 2010 · 2:29 pm

The Worst Case Scenario? Pretty Close…

Following the ridiculous 6-5 loss to Baltimore on Thursday, I was listening to Brock and Salk on 710 ESPN, and Dave Cameron from USSM was on the show. Cameron said the pre-season likelihood that the M’s would have finished the first 34 games at 13-21, would have been about 7-10%. This number is not a scientific fact, but anyone who knows a thing about baseball can look at the roster Seattle assembled, paired with the weak division they play in, and conclude that a 13-21 start would have been tough to imagine. Is this the worst case scenario? Well, of course it’s not the absolute worst case. That would be a winless team with multiple injured starters, a manager soon to be fired, and a clubhouse that is fist fighting. But this is pretty close to the worst possible scenario I could have thought up back in March. Here are 5 reasons why the M’s are where they are. (And sorry, this gets a little lengthy)

1) Bad luck (aka sucking in crunch time)
Last year, the M’s made hay in 1-run games. Despite giving up more runs than they scored, the M’s won 85 games, which by most standards, was an anomaly. The odd that Seattle could have racked up 85 W’s last year was slim when the year began. It was a pleasure seeing my team hang on in close games and show grit time and time again. This year, the Gods have not been so kind in similar games. In fact, in 9 of Seattle’s 21 losses, the M’s either led or were tied going into the eighth inning. That is a staggering result. If the Mariners could have won even just 4 of those 9 games, we would be talking about a 17-17 team heading into the Tampa series. The worst part is that in most cases, one minor miscue has been the difference between a win and a loss. The Byrnes whiffed bunt. The Johnson passed balls. The poor execution of bases loaded in extra innings. Those are the type of missed opportunities that has defined this team through 35 games. If you care to look at just how those 9 gut wrenching games played out, take a look at the quick summaries Shannon Drayer put together-http://www.mynorthwest.com/category/mariners_blog_articles/20100513/Too-Many-Tough-Losses

2) Slow start offense
In addition to the close losses, the Mariners are not hitting. Figgins, Kotchman, Griffey, Lopez, Bradley, Moore, Johnson and Jack Wilson are all off to slow starts. Typically you assume a few regulars will start slow, but it’s hard to win when all but 2 starters are hitting around .200 or lower. The offense is without a doubt the biggest reason the M’s are sitting where they are.

3) The Bullpen
The Mariners have a solid bullpen. I’d bet as many as 4 of our relievers could be closers on some major league teams. But despite good overall stats, some untimely blow ups have resulted in numerous losses. Lowe, League and Aardsma have combined to give up 6 home runs. That’s not the astounding number though, as 6 home runs between 3 relievers in mid-May is not unreasonable. What is astounding is that all 6 of those home runs were either game tiers or game winners, and all came in the 8th or 9th innings. Ouch. Often times home runs are not all the pitchers fault, because even perfectly executed pitches can be hit 400 feet by major league hitters. A lot of the bullpen’s failures are just plain bad luck. That’s just baseball. The bullpen is not a major concern for this team.

4) Off the field issues
The Bradley fiasco and the Griffey nap have been the two biggest off the field incidents thus far. The Milton thing was almost to be expected, considering his past, while the Griffey thing has snowballed from a minor issue to headlines on ESPN. That whole thing is just weird. You could include injuries in this category I suppose, to Cliff Lee, Mark Lowe, and Jack Wilson.

5) Inconsistency
The problem with this team is similar to the problem with my golf game. If I’m driving and putting well, my irons and chipping are failing me. If my short game is on, my drives are erratic. For the Mariners, the offense, starting pitching, and defense was great on Thursday. The bullpen was not, and so despite playing well in 3 out of 4 facets of the game, that one poor area bit us hard. It seems like that’s how it has gone all year. We just can’t play well in all aspects, and even when we play well in 2 or 3 areas, the 1 that we suck at ends up costing us the game.

Reason for hope after the jump! Continue reading →

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