Tag Archives: Justin Smoak

5 M’s Quick Hits

None of these points deserve a full post, because full posts on goodguyssports.com typically involve hours of research, in depth analysis, and material worth publishing. I don’t think any of these fit that bill, but please read anyway.

1) We’ve yet to mention the unbelievable comeback on Monday night. In short, the M’s were down by 7 in the 7th, at which point they had about a 0.6% chance of winning. Craziness ensued and Seattle pulled out a miraculous victory. My first thought watching this was, this is what makes baseball great. In baseball, there is no clock. So even when the M’s were down 7 in the 7th, Toronto couldn’t just milk the clock, no, because in baseball you’re required to get 27 outs, no matter how long it takes. Baseball and golf are two of my favorite sports, and neither involve time. Maybe I’m oddly attracted to this aspect.

2) It feels like every time I watch a Miguel Olivo at bat, he swings and misses at least twice. I have not seen every one of his at bats, and sometimes you draw conclusions, but the stats don’t back it up. But in this case, Olivo really does swing and miss more than any player in baseball. SWSTR% is an advanced stat that measures the percentage of strikes that are swung at, and missed. Olivo leads MLB (eligible players) by swinging and missing an astounding 24% of the time he swings at strikes. Rod Barajas is 2nd in baseball at 19%. Olivo has dominated this statistic in recent years. In fact, he has led every year since 2007. How many guys can say the’ve led baseball in a stat category 5 years running?! Jack Cust is 2nd on the M’s in SWSTR%, at 12.4%. Cust sure seems to swing and miss a lot, but Olivo still has him beat by double the whiffs.

The bottom line is when you’re a big league hitter, and you swing at a ball in the stike zone, you should make contact around 90% of the time, even if it’s just to foul it off. I’d like to watch Miguel in BP sometime, because he probably swings and misses at every 4th pitch.

3) I just found out that when you see a bunch of “K” signs tracking how many strikeouts a pitcher has, a backwards K means the batter struck out looking. I thought fans just got lazy and put them up that way. Oops.

4) When Guti returns, in a couple weeks Lord willing, the team will have a decision to make, because unless an injury, trade, or major slump occurs, there is no obvious candidate to be demoted. Those on the block include Langerhans, Saunders, Bradley, Cust, Kennedy, Rodriguez, or perhaps a bullpen arm like Wilhelmson or Ray (don’t get me started on Chris Ray). I won’t get into the implications for each guy, but at this point, it’s hard to justify demoting or cutting any of these position players, for various reasons. These things tend to work themselves out, otherwise the M’s could have a logjam in the outfield/DH position.

5) Finally, this thought came to me yesterday as I drooled watching Justin Smoak’s opposite field homerun. Where would the M’s be had Ruben Amaro (Phillies GM) not called last winter and offered Cliff Lee?
Think about it. If we hadn’t landed and then traded Lee, we would essentially have Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies and Juan Ramirez (none of which are past AA), instead of Justin Smoak, Blake Beavan, Josh Lueke and Matt Lawson, plus the immeasurable joy of watching Cliff Lee for 4 months! I doubt very much if an Aumont, Gillies, Ramirez package could have landed us the coup we got from Texas. And also, if we had 101 losses with Cliff Lee 1/2 the year, how many losses might we have had without him? Yikes, that’s a disturbing thought.

It’s off to KC for our 4-8 Mariners. Oddly enough, despite a poor record, the M’s have split their first 4 series, winning 2 and losing 2. This year is hardly about wins and losses, but I would be pleased if we could somehow scratch back to .500 at some point.

-Dan

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Ranking Your 2011 Mariners

The big news today is basketball related, with Isaiah Thomas announcing, rather unexpectedly, that he will indeed forgo his senior season at UW. He’s off to the NBA, which sucks for Husky fans. Time will tell whether this is a wise decision by IT, but I’m happy for him. Next year’s expectations will be lower now, and it could very well be our last year watching Terrence Ross, but the team should still be good, and contend for the conference yet again.

With that news, I’m officially closing basketball talk on the blog, until at least the draft in June. Why? Because today is opening day! As Andrew noted, things have been dry on here lately, but nothing like some M’s baseball to stir conversation. In case you have not heard, the 25 man roster is official. Looking over the team last night, I started ranking guys in my mind, and that’s what this post is all about. In addition to ranking the 25 man roster, in terms of most valuable to the team in 2011, I’m also throwing 3 more guys into the conversation: Ackley, Gutierrez, and Aardsma. The latter two are on the DL, and Ackley will probably be up sometime in June, so they belong on this list too.

    Ranking the Roster (Most Valuable to Least Valuable)

1- Felix Hernandez—He is the King of Seattle, and the best pitcher on planet Earth. Yes, Felix is the Mariners’ most valuable player. Go away trade rumors!
2- Ichiro—The team’s best hitter and most valuable everyday player. Also, the coolest Mariner ever.
3- Justin Smoak—I want to fall in love with Justin Smoak, and so does this city, but he has a lot to prove. IMHO, this guy is the lynchpin to the M’s offense in 2011.
4- Franklin Gutierrez—I fear for Guti’s long-term health with every day that passes without an explanation, but assuming this mystery stomach ailment gets treated, Guti is the team’s best defender, and a top 5 hitter, a valuable asset indeed.
5- Milton Bradley—Depending on which Milton shows up, batting 3rd, Bradley could easily lead the team in production this year. But can he stay healthy AND out of trouble? I wouldn’t bet on it.
6- Erik Bedard—Hard to argue that a guy who did not pitch last year could hold much value, but IF healthy, Bedard provides huge value to this team. And IF his spring performance is an indicator of what’s to come, his worth is as high as a #2 starter.
7- Chone Figgins—This guy had better bounce back, and I expect he will now that he’s back at 3rd and settled into Seattle. The M’s should be annoying to play, and Figgy leads that annoyance.
8- Jason Vargas—I still don’t think of Jason Vargas as a #2 starter, but he earned this spot after last season. Can he provide an encore?
9- Jack Cust—Batting clean-up for your Seattle Mariners…Jack Cust. Really? You better believe it! He will strike out a ton, but I gotta think he is an upgrade at DH, and he is an awesome interview.
10- Miguel Olivo—The team’s main acquisition this winter, Miguel can’t be worse than our catchers last season, but he must improve on his first go around in Seattle if he is to win over the fans. Continue reading

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Know Your Mariners: The Big Three

Every offseason, countless minor league prospect reports are released.  Media sources big and small release top 10 lists of prospects for every major league team, some good, some a little bizarre, all of them fairly meaningless except as a distraction until the season starts. 

For the Mariners, every list I saw has the same three prospects at the top.  Dustin Ackley and Michael Pineda are 1-2 in varying order, and Nick Franklin is pretty well always third.  Baseball America, easily the most well-known of all the prospecting media sources, just released their Top 100 Prospect list, and these three are the only Mariner guys to make the list.  That’s not a bad thing, as that’s about the average.  It’s the same amount as the Rangers and Angels, and one more than the A’s.  Furthermore, two of the Mariners are in the top 20 (Ackley #12, Pineda #16) and Nick Franklin is at #53.  Not a bad showing, overall.

So, what do the Mariners have in these three?  We’ve written to varying degrees on each, but to put it simply, they are, along with Felix and Justin Smoak, the foundation of the Mariners’ current rebuilding plan.  Here’s a quick rundown of each after the jump: Continue reading

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Beating The Odds, Part 2

As Dan mentioned in his post earlier today, spring has sprung on the 2011 baseball season.  The Mariners started training camp on Sunday, and we already have stories about Erik Bedard’s loyalty, Felix’s hair, and the return of Ken Griffey Jr.  Not bad for three days.

Not many people expect the Mariners to do much this year.  A .500 record would be a huge accomplishment, and that still might only get them last place in the division.  Luckily, the great thing about spring, and baseball in general, is that it’s easy to dream of everything going right.  Baseball players can be so unpredictable that there is always room to see playoffs in the future.  Does that hold true with a Mariner team that was worst in the league last year and lost two of its best hitters without adding any certain impact players?  Of course it does.

What if Erik Bedard is healthy all season?  He could be the second best starter in the league after his teammate Felix.  And what if Michael Pineda joins the team early and dominates the whole year?  Fister and Vargas might match their early season form from last year, or someone else might surprise, and suddenly the Mariners have one of the best rotations in the league.  It could happen. Continue reading

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Your 2011 Mariners- First Base

The Mariners have 4 games left in one of the most dismal seasons in history, and no one is sad to see it go.  I haven’t watched more than an a couple innings of a game in weeks.  The outlook for 2011 isn’t much better, to be honest.  Barring an unexpected and significant payroll increase, there’s not much room in the budget for big-ticket additions.  Even if there were, it’s not a great free agent class. 

Still, the Mariners need to, and will, make serious changes to the roster.  Some of this will just be with playing their younger players more, but there will certainly be some moves and fresh faces as well.  In an effort to get ready for the offseason, I’m going to walk through each position and see what the Mariners have, for both 2011 and the future, and what they’ll be losing.  I’m not going to touch on who they might add yet.  That will come later in the offseason, if at all.  Frankly, there are very few people sufficiently smart and well-connected to project those kind of moves more than a few days out.  Consider this series of posts something of a triage: which positions are in the worst shape going into next year, and which might be okay.  It’d be too depressing to start with catcher, so we’ll look at the first basemen after the jump! Continue reading

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Checking in on the M’s

As you may have noticed, the blog has switched to football mode in the last couple weeks.  This was a combination of the Mariners sucking and football being a breath of fresh air.  There hasn’t been anything really exciting as far as the Mariners go lately but here’s what little news there is:

  • After Tacoma won the PCL Championship several players were called up.  These players were Justin Smoak, Dan Cortes, Matt Mangini, Greg Halman, and Anthony Varvaro.  Cortes has been by far the  most impressive so far.  He hasn’t allowed a base-runner in two innings of work and has struck out 4 of 6 hitters faced.  He’ll be in the bullpen next year all season, barring injury, and could take on the 8th inning role (which is basically what he’s doing now).  Mangini has hit pretty well since coming up to the bigs.  No one has questioned his hitting, it’s his defense that stops him from being a top prospect.  More on him below.  Smoak has gotten hot the last two days, with 4 hits including a home run.  He’s starting to look like the top prospect we traded for.  Halman and Varvaro haven’t seen a ton of action but Halman notched his first hit tonight and Varvaro is pitching as I type this.  All of them have been decent, if not more.  It’s a shame they weren’t up here sooner.  Update: Varvaro didn’t do so well tonight, but he still has a bright future as a lefty reliever.
  • The two big names not to get called up are Dustin Ackley and Josh Lueke.  Ackley just needed a break before he starts fall league.  Enough has been written about Lueke, so I won’t add anything.  I’m cheering for the guy but I have my doubts that he’ll ever be in a Mariner uniform despite his unquestionable talent.
  • The Mariners will score over 500 runs this year.  With 6 runs so far tonight, they are up to 497 runs.  That’s kind of too bad.  On the other hand, do you realize how pathetic it is that we can even talk about this.
  • Speaking of Mangini, with a little more success we could see him having a role on the team next year.  Jose Lopez will be gone, thank goodness, and if the opportunity comes to trade Chone Figgins the M’s might take it.  That would leave a hole at third base and why not give Mangini the opportunity?  Seattle won’t be good next year so I’d like to see as many young players as possible.  They may platoon him or he could be a good lefty bat off the bench, at least.
  • Speaking of Chone Figgins, he’s hitting .360 in September.  That is good news concerning next year.  He can still be a valuable player despite his big contract and down year.  He has more stolen bases than B.J. Upton.  That is weird to me for some reason.  I can’t even remember him being on base too many times.
  • Ichiro got over 200 hits, again.  This is because Ichiro is awesome.  He is worth his big contract, regardless of what other people say.  If you think he’s overrated please talk to me, I would love to have this argument.
  • The M’s need to go 4-3 the rest of the way to avoid 100 losses.  They are ahead by one right now in the 8th.  Needless to say, it feels a lot better to lose 99 games than it does 100.  Do we know why?  No.  Mainly just because the human race is weird.

That’s about all I can think of.  If you have any Mariner questions let me know in the comments and I’ll try to address them.

Andrew

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Tacoma!

Justin Smoak’s line in Tacoma’s 2 playoff games:

4-5, 6 walks, 0 K’s.  You don’t see people walk 6 times in 2 games very often.  The future is much brighter than the present!

Oh yeah, Dustin Ackley hit a grand slam tonight and is hitting .556 so far this series.

Tacoma has won the first two games of the series and will look to advance to the next round with a win this Friday at Safeco Field at 7 pm.  If you aren’t doing anything go watch the future!  Go Rainiers, believe big!

Andrew

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Y2012M!

Last March, Matthew started a series called “Y2010M!” (standing for Your 2010 Mariners).  It provided the reader with information on players from the 2010 Mariners.  It seemed like a logical thing to do at the time.  The Mariners were supposed to be good, and there was more optimism in Seattle than there had been in quite a while.  This season didn’t work out though.  Frankly, Y2010M’s suck.  In fact, you probably don’t want to call them yours.  I don’t want to call them mine.  While next season will certainly be a little better, it can’t get much worse, it isn’t something that we should be extremely excited about.  Playoff chances will be slim and the casual fan probably won’t enjoy watching as the young players progress next season.  On the plus side, the Mariners could have about 3 legitimate candidates for Rookie of the Year.  Because of that reason, I am led to 2012.  The Mayan’s aren’t the only ones predicting big things that year.  Unlike the Bavasi years, there is actually hope in the future now.  Z has put good prospects in the system and the future looks much brighter than it did when he took over.  Yes, I know the future doesn’t make the present any more bearable, but at least there’s some hope.  So, lets take a way too early look at your 2012 Mariners.

Starting Rotation
The starting rotation is the place where we know the least about so I’ll start there.  Obviously, you have Felix as your ace.  I don’t need to say anything about him because he’s awesome and everyone should know it.  Then, almost as certain, we have Mr. Pineda.  Pineda is a top 3 prospect in the Mariners system and is a top 30 prospect in baseball.  He is better than everyone in Seattle’s rotation right now, aside from Felix.  No one’s a safe bet, but Pineda is about as close as they come.  He is one of those rookie of the year candidates.

After Pineda, it gets a little blurry.  There’s Vargas and Fister, who are very solid back of the rotation guys.  I think Vargas stands a better chance to still be around in there just because he has better pitches.  That’s not to say Fister isn’t capable.  He could be a very good 5th starter.  That leaves the 2nd, 3rd, and/or 4th spot in the rotation open (assuming Felix is the ace, Pineda is either the 2nd or 3rd starter, Vargas at 4th or 5th, and Fister maybe at the 5th spot).  So, who will fill either one or two spots?  I wouldn’t be surprised to see an innings eater (like a Kevin Millwood) added via free agency.  But, there are several options in the system.

Ryan Rowland-Smith has been much better in Tacoma lately but I wouldn’t count on him.  Same goes for Luke French.  There’s Mauricio Robles, who has more upside than both of those guys but has a longer way to come.  Robles was acquired in the Washburn trade and has the upside of a 3 starter.  He’s a short little guy who throws pretty hard and is left-handed.  He has high strikeout rates but also has high walk rates.  If he can learn to control his stuff, I think he’ll be in the rotation at some point.  If not, he may be moved to the bullpen.  Nick Hill was once highly thought of but he’s struggled this year.  There are also this years draftees but counting on the starters by 2012 isn’t a very good bet.

The 2012 rotation will depend on the emergence of Pineda and the ability to sign or trade for a veteran.  If Pineda is as good as we think, the rotation could be quite good.

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