Tag Archives: Seattle Mariners

by | March 25, 2014 · 9:41 pm

Breaking Down the 2014 Mariners

Opening day is suddenly right around the corner, and the Mariners’ roster is close to set.  There are a few undetermined spots, but some moves today went a long way to clearing up the options.

The area getting the most attention this week is the rotation, which will start at decidedly less than full strength.  Hisashi Iwakuma and Taijaun Walker will both start the season on the disabled list, although the injuries don’t appear serious.  At this point, they are working to build arm strength after missing spring training.  Both should be back by May, if not sooner.

Until then, the team’s scrambling a bit to find viable replacements. Coming into spring, most assumed veteran Scott Baker would grab a spot. He didn’t ever seem to find his command after missing time for injury and asked for his release rather than start the season in Tacoma. Erasmo Ramirez seems to have solidified a spot, leaving Randy Wolf, Roenis Elias and Blake Beavan as the front runners for the final two spots. Apparently, Wolf would have had a spot, but he balked at signing a clause that would allow the team to send him to the minors later on, and he was also released. (Andrew has more on that below.) The circumstances of the release have caused some consternation amongst fans, but it doesn’t seem like a big deal to me.  Wolf isn’t anything special, and if the Mariners thought he is, they would have agreed to forgo the clause and keep him. His main use is as rotation depth, and he can’t fill that role later in the season if he won’t go to Tacoma.

So, it appears Elias will make the surprise jump from Double-A, at least for a month or so. Beavan, or maybe Noesi or an unsigned veteran, will take a few starts until Walker returns.  It’s not ideal, but as long as Walker and Iwakuma return as expected, the situation’s not disastrous. There are a couple of other questions on the roster. Outfield seems settled, although it’s unclear exactly who will be the regular starters. The only surprise might be if Nick Franklin can squeeze himself onto the roster as a back-up infielder, which could necessitate a DL move or one less outfielder.  The back of the bullpen is also a mess, one I’m not even going to try to figure out right now.

Anyway, my main purpose in writing this post was not to recap roster news, but rather to break down the roster itself to see what this year’s team might be.  It’s still a squad with a lot to prove, but some additions, both young and veteran, have brought greater upside. A lot will have to go right for this team to contend, which means they probably won’t, but it’s possible, for the first time in a while. I’m going to group the roster into some categories that seem fairly apparent to me.

Sure Things

With the constant caveat that no one’s a sure thing in sports, given injuries and general unpredictability, the M’s have a few guys who should not cause any worry. Felix Hernandez and Robinson Cano are in the arguments for the best pitcher and player in baseball. We’re in for a treat watching Cano. Seattle hasn’t seen as dynamic and talented a player as him since Ichiro’s best years, and he brings power that should make him the line-up stabilizer Seattle’s lacked since Edgar retired. Seager’s not on their level, but he’s very good, steady and still capable of improvement. Iwakuma will miss a month and won’t likely have as good a year as he did in 2013, but he’s still one of the better pitchers in the league and a solid complement to Felix. Fernando Rodney should be a welcome addition at the back of the ‘pen, despite some struggles this spring.

Continue reading →

Leave a comment

Filed under Mariners

Tagged as

Aside

2014 AL West Team

To be quite honest, creating a “Preseason All AL West Team” is a futile exercise.  If you are looking for an MLB season preview, full of sound analysis and predictions, this isn’t it.  But I’m a visual learner, and there is some value in seeing where the power is in the division, position by position.  Of course this isn’t an exact science, no predictions are, and only 2 players are selected per position, so you have a guy like Kyle Seager, the M’s second best position player, not making this list thanks to Beltre and Donaldson.   So ya, take this for what it is.  A quick snapshot of the division headed into 2014.  Although I should point out, by forecasting who has the most 1st and 2nd teamers, I correctly guessed the order of finish in the division last year!

My selection process looks at last year’s performance as well as projections for the upcoming season, and anticipated playing time. Some of the picks are obvious and others are less obvious, so of course I’d love to hear your thoughts too.

2014 AL West Team

Taking the visualization one step further, here’s a super scientific bar graph intended to show the separation between teams, by awarding 2 points for a 1st team selection, and 1 point for a 2nd team selection.

2014 AL West Graph

3 Comments

by | March 15, 2014 · 9:05 pm
by | January 5, 2014 · 1:31 pm

The Mariners Rebuilding is Getting Easier (Maybe)

The Mariners have spent more money this offseason than at any time in their history, and it’s not even close.  Robinson Cano’s $240 million is more money than the team had spent in the last 8 offseasons combined.  It doesn’t appear the team is done with the spending, either. There are rumblings they will heavily pursue Japanese starter Masahiro Tanaka, who will command between $100-150 million.

The competition will be thick for Tanaka, but there are other options, should the Mariners decide to pursue them.  Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Garza and Ervin Santana form a solid trio of free agent starters who should require less than half the money Tanaka will likely receive.  On offense, Nelson Cruz and Kendrys Morales are still on the market, and there are a number of possible trade targets. I expect the Mariners to add another impact player, as well as some filler for the bullpen, before spring training begins next month.

The Mariners sudden spending has received some skeptical and even negative reviews.  Some of that is justified.  Cano’s contract will likely be a bit of a burden toward the end of the deal, and the team once again has a bit of a logjam at the 1B/DH slots.

I think more of the consternation comes from the idea that the Mariners don’t know what they’re doing, however.  They’ve spent so long building with youth, many see the big free agent moves as desperation, an abandonment of a plan that wasn’t working.  I don’t know if the Mariners have any clue what they’re doing, but I don’t think the sudden spending is a sign of abandoning the youth movement.  I actually think it’s the next step in making the youth successful.

If Mariner fans have learned anything over the last five to ten season, it’s that young players frequently fail. Outside of Felix Hernandez and Kyle Seager, there haven’t been many Mariner prospects who have come to Seattle and performed as hoped.  Some players have become decent contributors after a few seasons, but that only illustrates the other problem of a rebuild: prospects usually take a while to become players with which a team can win.

Those dual restraints, young players’ elongated timetables and frequent failure, are why so many teams rebuilding solely with youth never improve much.  There are just too many holes to fill, and if a player doesn’t improve into a solid starter, the team has wasted two or three seasons in the waiting.

What the Mariners hopefully did with the Cano signing and potentially another long-term deal or two, is remove some uncertainty. They now employ one of the best players in baseball at a position that was previously something of a question mark.  Add in the dependable Seager, and that’s two of the tougher positions to fill now ably manned.  If Brad Miller and Mike Zunino can solidify shortstop and catcher, respectively, the line-up is starting to look good for the future.  Maybe Michael Saunders, Justin Smoak and/or Dustin Ackley move from mediocre to league-average or better.  Suddenly the team only has a a couple of positions that are question marks. Instead of relying on seven unestablished players, they’re only relying on two, which is much easier to focus on and fix.  And while they’re being fixed, the team is still getting production from the other spots.

There’s no guarantee any or all of those players will work out, but the point is that established performers are hugely important for rebuilding teams.  It’s the difference between buying furniture for a whole house versus just one room.  Not only is the cost so much higher for the whole house, it’s also overwhelming and harder to decide what to focus on. Some rooms (or positions) will not receive the same attention or resources.  Narrowing the scope to one room (or position) is much easier to deal with.

Establishing solid starters has one other benefit.  Eventually, those solid starters will need to be upgraded, or maybe replaced as they hit free agency.  When that time hits, the team can now focus their farm system on the trade market.  It’s hard to make trades when all of the prospects are needed to fill holes.  When there’s only one hole, it can either be filled with a prospect, or if that’s not possible, prospects can be moved in trade.  Nick Franklin a good current example of these benefits.  With Cano taking his starting spot, Franklin is now a great trade piece, or he could possibly be moved to the outfield to fill a hole there.  Prospects have no inherent value. They only exist to make the big league team better, whether by their own performance or by being used in a trade for someone else.  There’s no reason the Mariner farm system should get worse as the team gets better, unless there’s a change in the scouting department.  A strong farm system is the best way keep a competitive team good. It keeps payroll down and lets the team move on from aging starters before they begin to decline with a big salary.

Even as the Mariners improve, their prospects will still fail at fairly high rates. That’s just the way it works.  What free agent signings can do is relieve the sting of those failures. The team can be more patient with prospects, who won’t feel the pressure to be immediately successful and carry the team.  There’s no guarantee the Mariners will be successful with these moves, but anyone saying they don’t make the team immediately better or have benefits in a youth movement has too narrow a view of the situation.  Plus, Mariner fans now get to watch Robinson Cano, and no one should complain about that.

-Matthew

Leave a comment

Filed under Mariners

Tagged as , ,

by | December 11, 2013 · 2:11 pm

New Mariners! Lots of Them!

The Mariners have become the center of the baseball news universe.  Some of the news is bad (see Andrew’s post below), but most of it is quite good.  This is going to be a fairly quick recap of the M’s moves so far, with a look at what else they might have in store.  I would expect more moves within the next week, so I’ll have a more comprehensive look at the 2014 Mariners once the dust settles.

Additions

As I write this, there are three new Mariners.  The big one is 2B Robinson Cano.  He reportedly agreed to a 10 year $240 million deal last week, and will likely be announced in Seattle on Friday or so.  A week later, I am still in a bit of shock that Cano is a Mariner.  He is the best second baseman in baseball, and has been the centerpiece of the Yankees’ offense for the last five years plus.  That he will likely play out the remainder of his career in Seattle is a testament to money, both as the deciding factor for most player and the amount of it the Mariners have to spend if they’re so inclined.

Cano supplants Nick Franklin and/or Dustin Ackley (trade chips, but not sure to be moved).  As much as one might like those two guys, Cano is a massive, massive upgrade.  He’s the first major line-up threat Seattle has had in years.  His offensive game is reminiscent of Edgar’s, and he plays Gold Glove caliber defense.  It’s likely the last 3-4 years of the contract will be a drawback, but I’m not especially worried.  The immediate benefits are huge, and it’s likely baseball’s changing economics will render the dollar amounts less shocking by 2020 or so.  This is a stunning addition, unlike anything the Mariners have ever done.

Today, two separate deals brought DH/1B/maybe outfielders.  The first was a free agent deal for former Brewer Corey Hart.   Continue reading →

2 Comments

Filed under Uncategorized

Tagged as , , , , ,

by | December 10, 2013 · 1:37 am

Are The Mariners Really ‘Dysfunctional’?

On Saturday night, news broke that Geoff Baker, of the Seattle Times, had just dropped some, well umm, news on us.  Baker has recently moved off of the Seattle Mariners beat and into a columnist/investigative role.  His first story was this one.  As far as reporting goes, this was a bomb.  The story was about problems in the Mariners front office, and reflected especially poorly on Jack Z, Howard and Chuck.  Baker interviewed a few former employees and that is what the story was based on.  It was a very well-written piece and Baker was simply doing his job, and doing it well.

With all this being said, I think there are some problems with the way this article is being received.  Seattle media and fans have a way of really eating any information up and reacting to it in the most negative way possible.  That’s what happened here.  Admittedly, I’m not a huge Geoff Baker fan.  I’m not going to go into why, but I do think he’s an extremely talented writer and reporter.

I’m writing this post, not as an attack on Baker, but because I think the story needs to be questioned in the way of who the quotes came from and the relevancy of today’s team.  I will be going straight through the article, paragraph by paragraph, and talking about some problems I have with it.

Before I begin with that, I think the timing of this article is noteworthy.  Ryan Divish did say that this article has been in the works for over a month and I have no reason to believe him.  But, the story came out 2 days after the Mariners finalized the deal with Robinson Cano and people were feeling optimistic about Seattle for the first time in years.  The Mariners were a hot topic and this story came out about 36 hours after the big news.  Coincidence?  Possibly.  Great for Seattle Times subscriptions?  Definitely.

Let’s move on to the story.  If you haven’t read it, please do that before you read the rest of my post.  I don’t want to use many quotes of the story in here because Baker should get the views for his work, so the rest of this post won’t make much sense if you don’t read that.  (Here’s a link to the article)

The article begins by telling a story of former manager, Eric Wedge, getting yelled at by Chuck Armstrong and Howard Lincoln after the 2012 season had ended.  Apparently, the meeting got heated as Wedge fought back.  In short, Wedge didn’t like getting yelled at, as the team had improved, and he didn’t like that Z didn’t warn him it was going to happen.

If what Eric Wedge said is true in this part of the story, that really is too bad.  The team did improve and Wedge couldn’t have done a ton more with the players he had.  But, this is professional baseball.  Eric Wedge made a lot of money and his team finished 12 games under .500.  Employees have been yelled at by their bosses for a lot of worse things.  Also, Wedge was probably angry at this point in time and may have overdramatized what was said in his mind.  Probably not, but that is something that should be taken into account.   Continue reading →

Leave a comment

Filed under Mariners

Tagged as , , , , ,

by | August 21, 2013 · 1:24 pm

Bullpen Decisions in Walk-Off Losses

The Mariners have fallen victim to walk-off losses what seems like countless times.  Whenever they play in Chicago, Baltimore, or Washington D.C. I just count on the game to be a walk-off loss.  This season has brought even more of these.  As of the afternoon on August 20th, the Mariners had suffered 10 walk-off losses in 124 games.  Over 8 percent of the Mariners games have ended in a walk-off loss this season.  Furthermore, walk-off losses can only happen on the road, although the M’s might find a way to make it happen otherwise.  There have been 61 road games with 10 walk-off losses.  Over 16 percent of Mariners road games have ended in a walk-off, and not the fun Zoolander kind. Seattle sports…

Eric Wedge (and Robbie Thompson) aren’t exactly known for their bullpen usage.  With this in mind, I went on a journey to find out in what situations these walk-off losses happened (pitcher vs. batter match-ups).

Below, you will find the score of each walk-off loss, a little summary of what happened, who was pitching, hitting, and left in the bullpen.  I will also add a little bit of analysis.  Of course, my research isn’t perfect.  There were days when some bullpen arms weren’t available and I don’t have all of that information.  I’ve tried to make my analysis as fair as possible.

Walk-off loss #1:  April 7, – Chicago White Sox 4, Mariners 3

The Matchup: RH Kameron Loe vs. RH Dayan Viciedo
Who Was Left In The Bullpen:  RH Tom Wilhelmsen, LHP Charlie Furbush, RHP Stephen Pryor
Summary:  A walk-off solo dinger.
Analysis:  This wasn’t all that bad of a decision.  Pryor had pitched the two nights before so I’m guessing he wasn’t available.  Furbush wouldn’t have made sense as a lefty.  Wilhelmsen probably should have been in the game but the Mariners like to keep their closer available.  I don’t agree with this but this decision wasn’t atrocious other than the fact that Kameron Loe was bad and shouldn’t have been on the team.  Robert Andino and Brendan Ryan did start this game at SS and 2B though…

Walk-off loss #2:  May 17th – Cleveland Indians 6, Mariners 3

The Matchup: LH Lucas Luetge vs. LH Jason Kipnis
Who Was Left In The Bullpen:  Not many guys available, everyone had thrown the day before.
Summary: 3-run walk-off dinger.
Analysis:  Not a bad process here aside from maybe leaving Luetge in too long.  You want the lefty on lefty matchup and Luetge is typically good against lefties.  Furbush had already pitched and Perez had pitched over an inning the night before.  Luetge was probably the best option to pitch against Kipnis.  Wilhelmsen (arguably the best reliever at the time) did not pitch in this game.

Walk-off loss #3:  May 18th – Cleveland Indians 5, Mariners 4
The Matchup:  RH Yoervis Medina vs. RH Mark Reynolds
Who Was Left In the Bullpen:  Wilhelmsen, Furbush, Luetge, Loe (I think)
Summary: Jesus Montero forgot to keep his foot on the plate and the winning run scored as he pulled his foot off of it.  You can’t make this stuff up.
Analysis:  Probably the right match-up.  Perez was bad before Medina came in to face Reynolds.  It was a really exciting game aside from the horrible ending!  Medina is a good guy to face Reynolds.  Cleveland is so stupid.  Wilhelmsen, again, wasn’t used.  Instead they went to a rookie in his first week in the majors.

Walk-off loss #4:  May 20th – Cleveland Indians 10, Mariners 8
The Matchup: LH Charlie Furbush vs. Yan Gomes
Who Was Left In the Bullpen: LH Lucas Luetge, RH Farquhar (maybe)
Summary:  Wilhelmsen blew the save in the 9th while dropping the final out at first.  Then, Furbush came in for the 10th and gave a up a 3-run walk-off dinger.
Analysis:  Many people believed he should have come out for the 10th because he was pitching well, hadn’t pitched in 4 days and a few righties were coming up.  I’m one of those people.  Leaving Furbush in to face righties was dumb.  This may have been the worst decisions of the walk-offs, so far.  Andino and Ryan started this game at SS and 2B.

Walk-off loss #5:  May 29th – San Diego Padres 3, Mariners 2
The Matchup:  RH Yoervis Medina vs. LH Will Venable
Who Was Left In the Bullpen:  All of the lefties
Summary:  Wilhelmsen blew the save in the 9th and Venable hit a walk-off single in the 10th, after loading the bases and not getting an out.
Analysis:  This one is bad.  Medina faced 3 lefties (2 were switch-hitters, although they have better splits from the left side) and one righty.  Furbush had pitched the night before but there was no sign of Perez, for some reason.  Medina to start the inning may have been fine but he should have been out after the first hit.  The pitcher spot was coming up in the batting order, which may have caused Wedge to not change guys.  This is a constant in the bullpen decision-making: playing for the hypothetical instead of putting yourself in the best situation right now.

Walk-off loss #6:  June 1st – Minnesota Twins 5, Mariners 4
The Matchup:  RH Wilhelmsen vs. S Ryan Doumit
Who Was Left in the Bullpen:  RH Noesi, RH Farquhar, RH Medina
Summary:  Wilhelmsen walked 3 guys and then gave up a walk-off triple.
Analysis:  Managers have a way with sticking with a closer in the 9th, no matter what.  I don’t blame Wedge for this philosophy but why does it exist?  Wilhelmsen should not have been in the game after walking 3 straight guys.  This one is a baseball problem, not a Mariners problem.  By the way, that was 5 walk-off losses in 15 days.  There was also a homestand in that stretch.

Walk-off loss #7 :  July 31st – Boston Red Sox 5, Mariners 4
The Matchup:  LH Luetge vs. LH Stephen Drew
Who Was Left In the Bullpen:  RH Wilhelmsen
Summary:  Drew hit a walk-off single in the 15th inning.
Analysis:  Luetge had thrown 2 innings before coming out for the 15th and he almost made it through that inning, as well.  He had also thrown the night before.  He seemed a bit fatigued.  Wilhelmsen hadn’t pitched in either game.  I know the options are limited in the 15th inning but I don’t know why you don’t put your best pitcher out there.  Or put in a starter.

Walk-off loss #8:  August 1st – Boston Red Sox 8, Mariners 7
The Matchup:  LH Perez vs. S Daniel Nava
Who Was Left In the Bullpen: LH Luetge, RH Farquhar
Summary:  Felix is awesome.  7-2 heading into the 9th.  Wilhelmsen sucks, doesn’t get an out.  Wrong pitcher is called in by Thompson (accidentally called for Perez instead of Medina).  The wrong pitcher gives up runs.  Medina isn’t good either.  This one sucked.
Analysis:  The Mariners meant to do the right thing and accidentally failed at that.  Medina was supposed to be called in to face Victorino and Pedroia.  Instead Perez was called in and was bad and then Medina was left in too long due to the accident.  This is a dumb rule in baseball and a brain fart by Thompson.  It was an awful game too.

Walk-off loss #9:  August 14th – Tampa Bay Rays 5, Mariners 4
The Matchup:  RH Farquhar vs. LH Matt Joyce
Who Was Left In the Bullpen:  LH Luetge, RH Capps, LH Perez
Summary:  A leadoff triple and then a walk-off single.
Analysis:  A few bloops and one hard hit led to a walk-off.  Sure, they could have taken Farquhar out to play the match-ups but he’d been pretty good  and, as I’ve said, managers stick with the closers.  This one isn’t too bad.

Walk-off loss #10:  August 19th – Oakland A’s 2, Mariners 1
The Matchup:  RH Capps vs. LH Brandon Moss
Who Was Left In the Bullpen:  Everyone but Furbush.
Summary:  Capps gave up a walk-off ding-donger to a lefty.
Analysis:  This was really stupid.  Capps has been the worst guy out of the pen against lefties.  He faces one in the bottom of the 9th (with Perez and Luetge available) and gives up a dinger.  This is one of the least defensible.  Luckily, no one really cared because the Mariners fell to 10 games under .500.

Conclusion:  Yes, the Mariners bullpen is terrible.  Some of these losses are inevitable no matter how good your bullpen.  But, some of the decisions that were made were pretty ridiculous and a few of these outcomes probably could have been avoided.  In-game management has been a struggle this year and, while that is not the only job of a manager, Wedge and Thompson should be held accountable for some of these decisions.

– Andrew

1 Comment

Filed under Mariners

Tagged as , , , , , , , ,

by | August 4, 2013 · 4:21 pm

Rebuilding The Mariners: Is There Hope?

The goal of any team, at any time, is to put the best player possible at each position.  If a team could find a way to put the 25 best players in baseball on the same roster, they would do it.  Obviously, given salary, availability and personality constraints, such a roster is impossible.  Sacrifices are sometimes made, different strategies for building a roster are employed.  Still, at its core, roster construction is simply finding the best player available given that roster’s specific constraints.

This concept is even clearer with a rebuilding team.  When starting nearly from scratch, it’s incredibly difficult to find nine serviceable players, even more so when the pitching staff and bench are added.  Aside from Felix, the Mariners have had so few long-term answers over the last few years, it has made visualizing a future roster all but impossible.

The biggest challenge rebuilding teams face is the sheer number of good players they must obtain.  On most perennially good teams, there are no more than five of 25 roster spots changing from year to year.  Most of the roster is set, leaving the team to focus on replacing a free agent, or upgrading a weak position.  Resources can be focused.  With a team like the Mariners, which has turned over more like 20 of it’s roster spots in some years, they are not only faced with a lack of available quality players, but also with the challenge of where to focus their resources.  Each year brings questions of: which prospects to look at, which mediocre veterans can be lived with for another year, which struggling youngster should get more time, which long-term free agent fits best.  There are too many questions, and not enough innings or roster spots to find answers. Continue reading →

1 Comment

Filed under Uncategorized

Tagged as

by | July 28, 2013 · 5:00 pm

Rebuilding the Mariners: A New Attitude

My sixth grade baseball team was a juggernaut.  We had been solid all through little league, always near the top of the league.  Now, in our final season of “major league” ball before heading to the world of middle school baseball, we had matured into a talented and powerful group.  With the added benefit of getting to play weak fifth grade teams, we were ready for a special year.

We opened with the traditional jamboree, where each team plays a couple of innings before rotating to a new opponent.  To start the season, our lead-off hitter, Ryan Cullier, stepped to the plate.  A sturdy first baseman with a good eye and a smooth lefty swing, Ryan immediately put a fastball over the fence and off a car, and we immediately knew this was our year. Continue reading →

5 Comments

Filed under Uncategorized

Tagged as , , ,