Beating the Odds

There has not been an overwhelming amount of Seattle sports news lately. Pitchers and catchers reported to Peoria yesterday, today the M’s announced Griffey’s hire as a special consultant, and UW hoops are headed to Arizona this weekend, but there is really only one story I feel compelled to write about: The Flying DuTcHmAn. Note-Now would be a completely understandable time to stop reading.

As our loyal readers may know from a video posted months ago, 3 of the Good Guys occasionally shoot some hoops on the weekend. But more than just shooting hoops, we play a game called Flying DuTcHmAn. The name is irrelevant to the game, and actually, the game itself is fairly irrelevant too. Even if I attempt to explain the rules, it won’t make sense, so I will spare you the details. All you need to know is that on Sunday, not only did we set a 3-man outdoor record for DuTcHmAn (58), but our own Andrew Long made 3 consecutive half court shots, spaced about 5 minutes apart. When things like this happen, I often wonder, “what are the chances?!” Well, this time I decided to answer that question.

For starters, there is no absolute correct answer to the odds of stepping up and nailing a half court shot, outside, on a double thick rim. However, based on Andrew’s skill, and various factors, I’m willing to guess 20%, or every 1 out of 5 attempts is a reasonable guess. Draining 3 consecutive ½ court bombs? For that, I must recall my 9th grade probabilities math unit. 20% * 20% * 20% = .008, or slightly less than 1%. Is it more impressive that the 3 made shots were spaced by 5 or so minutes? Probably. But I’m not smart enough to consider these variables. All I know is that on Sunday, Andrew beat 125/1 odds, and it makes me wonder whether the 2011 Mariners could somehow beat their 80/1 odds of winning the World Series. I suppose anything is possible.

-Dan