Beating the Odds

There has not been an overwhelming amount of Seattle sports news lately. Pitchers and catchers reported to Peoria yesterday, today the M’s announced Griffey’s hire as a special consultant, and UW hoops are headed to Arizona this weekend, but there is really only one story I feel compelled to write about: The Flying DuTcHmAn. Note-Now would be a completely understandable time to stop reading.

As our loyal readers may know from a video posted months ago, 3 of the Good Guys occasionally shoot some hoops on the weekend. But more than just shooting hoops, we play a game called Flying DuTcHmAn. The name is irrelevant to the game, and actually, the game itself is fairly irrelevant too. Even if I attempt to explain the rules, it won’t make sense, so I will spare you the details. All you need to know is that on Sunday, not only did we set a 3-man outdoor record for DuTcHmAn (58), but our own Andrew Long made 3 consecutive half court shots, spaced about 5 minutes apart. When things like this happen, I often wonder, “what are the chances?!” Well, this time I decided to answer that question.

For starters, there is no absolute correct answer to the odds of stepping up and nailing a half court shot, outside, on a double thick rim. However, based on Andrew’s skill, and various factors, I’m willing to guess 20%, or every 1 out of 5 attempts is a reasonable guess. Draining 3 consecutive ½ court bombs? For that, I must recall my 9th grade probabilities math unit. 20% * 20% * 20% = .008, or slightly less than 1%. Is it more impressive that the 3 made shots were spaced by 5 or so minutes? Probably. But I’m not smart enough to consider these variables. All I know is that on Sunday, Andrew beat 125/1 odds, and it makes me wonder whether the 2011 Mariners could somehow beat their 80/1 odds of winning the World Series. I suppose anything is possible.

-Dan

4 Comments

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4 responses to “Beating the Odds

  1. Matthew

    We might have to retire DuTcHmAn at this point. It’s not going to get any better. Amazing that all that happened after the ball rolled into the pond, too.

  2. Matthew

    I also noticed that you didn’t post the link to the video. I’m guessing this was on purpose?

  3. dpscansen

    I thought about linking the video but decided not to distract our readers. Also, thanks for spelling DuTcHmAn correctly, I’ve since edited it.

  4. Pingback: News From the Desert | The Good Guys Sports Blog

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