Author Archives: Andrew Long

by | September 5, 2011 · 9:14 pm

Take a Deep Breath

Growing up in a home where sports were always on the forefront, I learned many lessons.  My dad, and brother to a lesser extent, taught me certain truths about game.  Dad passed down the thought that sports are as much mental as they are physical and a hate of zone defense.  One of the lessons he repeated the most was that you never know what is going to happen in the first game of the season.  The game is weird and often not vindictive of a team’s talent level or future record.  With this thought in mind, I would caution my fellow Dawg fans to take a deep breath instead of joining in the insanity that has ensued over Husky Nation.

Don’t take this the wrong way, I’m not happy with the way the Huskies played on Saturday.  It was a pathetic display by the defense and the offensive line.  They were not the team we expected to see this season and if they hope to better last season than they will have to play better (I’ll pick apart what needs to improve after the jump).

But, over the last 2 days I’ve heard irrationality coming from the radio, blogosphere and everywhere else I could hear about the Huskies.  There have been calls for Nick Holt’s job, which is absolutely absurd.  There have been people underselling how well Eastern played, which is strange since everyone under the sun was talking about how the Huskies were in for a battle last week.  There have been players called out who shouldn’t have been.

UW Dawg Pound, which is a good Husky football blog that I follow regularly, said this on Saturday night:

“Alameda Ta’amu played like a big fat pile of goo. He was dominated most of the evening by players who had no business being on the same playing field with him.”

This just simply isn’t true.  I was at the game and watch Ta’amu pretty closely.  No, he didn’t have a monster game but he was himself, clogging up the middle and getting free more than any other D-lineman.  This was with him being double-teamed the entire game.  UW Dawg Pound is a blog that I agree with in most things and a blog that I encourage Husky fans to ready, John Berkowitz is a good writer and has good insight on the Dawgs.  That’s why I picked this example, it’s the kind of blame game that’s going out all over this fan base.

So, should we be upset with the way the team played?  Sure, coach Sark sure was in his press conference today but don’t go blowing things out proportion.  A few players played poorly and the team didn’t play at full speed.  I’m sticking with my pre-season prediction and I imagine the other 3 Good Guys’ are doing the same.  Hey, we’re 1-0 and have the 6th longest winning streak in the nation!  I’m good with that.  Continue reading →

2 Comments

Filed under Huskies Football, UW Game Recaps

Tagged as , , , , , ,

by | September 3, 2011 · 8:42 pm

The Good Guys’ Husky Season Predictions

We’ve had more posts in the last day than we have in the last month!  This post got up a little late, but we promise that we wrote this before today’s game.  If we hadn’t these posts might not seem so optimistic.  More from the game later tonight or tomorrow.  Anyway, here are the Good Guys’ Husky season predictions:

Joe

It all comes down to the schedule. The Huskies have a tough road ahead, especially after the realignment to twelve teams. Playing in the P12 north means Stanford and Oregon will be on the schedule. Utah, on the other hand, doesn’t play either one. So right off the bat teams in the P12 north are at a scheduling disadvantage for 2011, the UW included. With road games at Stanford, USC, Utah, Nebraska and Oregon State, the path away from Husky Stadium will be tough. I see no real shot to beat Stanford or Nebraska on the road. Utah, USC and Oregon State are all winnable games, but the Dawgs will only get 2 of them. My road record prediction? 2-3.

At home is a different story. Eastern, Hawaii, Cal, Colorado, Arizona, Oregon and Wazzu. I can honestly see them going 6-1 at home. All of the games except Oregon are very winnable, in fact I expect them to win all of them except Oregon. Don’t get wrong, I do think they can win the Oregon game. It’s a classic trap game for the Ducks, the week before the smackdown with Stanford (and the weeks prior to UW they get Colorado and Wazzu, two games that could be blow outs, softening the Ducks senses a bit). So I am really hanging my hopes of beating Oregon on two things: The Ducks look past the Dawgs, and it’s the last game at the old lady, Husky Stadium, before the remodel. Both those intangibles help the Dawgs tremendously. The only thing the Ducks have going in that game, assuming they are undefeated, is to slide by and get to Stanford with no losses. It’s about freaking time the Dawgs beat the Ducks, I’m sick and tired of losing to the Univ of Nike. My heart says Dawgs win, my head says Ducks win. For the sake of my season preview, I’m going 6-1 home record.

In the end, the Huskies will be 8-4. I know that sounds very “kool-aidish”, but just look at that home schedule and tell me how they don’t go at least 5-2. The key is the road, they must get 2 wins this season away from Seattle if they have any dreams of another bowl appearance.

Dan

The 2011 Huskies have the most talent of any Washington team in the past 10 years. Pair this fact with a momentous end to last season, and another solid recruiting class, and expectations are high at Montlake. Not championship high, but close. The Huskies won 4 games last year by a touchdown or less, but their average margin of loss was 26.5 points. Given this, achieving 7 wins was a minor miracle last year. I doubt we see as many blowout losses, and I’d be surprised if the Huskies weren’t better, at least to the eye this year. Whether this improvement equates to a better win-loss record, we will have to wait and see. Looking at the schedule, 6.5 seems to be a fair line for wins. Most fans will probably say 7 or 8 wins, but I tend to think 6 is more likely, especially given the top to bottom strength of the conference. I think the Huskies are still 1 year away from championship contention, kind of like every other local team!
Andrew
Last time we saw the Dawgs they were celebrating in San Diego.  It seemed like Husky football was back.  The strong defense, power rushing team from the early 90’s showed up in late November and December and gave Husky fans reason to dream.  I think it’s clear that this program is on it’s way back and the 4 game winning streak to end last year proved that.  With that being said, this year is crucial for the program.  The Huskies lost their star quarterback and best player on defense.  It’s time for Sark to prove that his recruiting will make UW take another step forward.
I believe there will be some bumps along the road this year.  A new QB and a relatively young team will prove that.  But, I also believe that this team is the most talented team we’ve seen in Seattle since the wildly inconsistent 2002 team.  Are we going to be playing for a championship at the end of the season?  Probably not.  But, anything less than 6 wins and a bowl game would be a disappointment.
I don’t remember much from the early ’90’s since I was roughly 1, 2 or 3 years old during the Huskies best run.  I’ve read, heard, and learned about those teams and how nasty they were.  How they’d run the ball down opponents throats and suffocate teams with the purple-reign defense.  I’ve never seen much of that football at Husky Stadium.  This year, they’ll take another step to becoming that team and it will be a special year.  It seems fitting that this style of play will be back for the final year before the renovation.  I’m looking forward to the memories, because I think this year will bring a few of them.  No, we aren’t all the way back but we’re getting there.  The Dawgs scratch and claw their way to an 8-4 record (6 wins at home and 2 on the road) and Seattle will start dreaming about 2012 Pac-12 championships once the season is over.
Matthew
I touched on my general thoughts about the season the other day, but I’m going to look positively at this season. I’m tired of saying, the Huskies should be good, but I can’t quite bet on them to do it yet. That might still be true, but I’m going to expect big things anyway. Or slightly bigger things, anyway. I’m saying an 8-5 season. I can see them winning 7 or 8 in the regular season. If they win 7, they should have a very winnable bowl game. If they win 8, I’m not so sure about the bowl game, so 8-5 seems like a good guess.That said, I could see them edging their way to 9 or even 10 wins. To do that, they’ll likely have to beat one of the big three (Oregon, Stanford, Nebraska), and they’ll probably need a few of the Pac-12 teams on the edge to really fall apart. I’m looking at you, UCLA, Cal, Arizona and OSU. Let’s make it happen!

Individually, I think Alameda Ta’amu will be considered one of the three best defensive players in the league by the end. I expect Sean Parker to join the ranks of great Husky safeties. Kasen Williams and Austin Seferian-Jenkins will have the most impact of any offensive true freshmen since Reggie Williams. And that’s all I’ll write for now, because we’re on our way out the door for the game!

Go Dawgs!

Leave a comment

Filed under Huskies Football

Tagged as , , , ,

by | August 8, 2011 · 7:39 pm

Dawg Days – Day One 2011

The Huskies took the field today for the first time since spring practice.  Sometimes I think these days are bigger for fans than they are for players because the players have been working out all Summer.  In fact, the individual Huskies have probably taken the field many times since spring.  But, today they took the field all together, coaches included, which tells us fans that the games will begin sooner rather than later.

These days seem bigger for fans than for the players but then I think back to my sports playing days.  I think of the training I put in during the off-season (granted, it wasn’t as much as these players).  I remember walking from the snow into a 50 degree hop-factory-turned-batting-cage to hit a little bit and throw a bullpen.  Those days were done out of necessity.  I needed to stay in shape and I needed my skills sharpened.  But, the first day of practice was always significant.  The coaches were actually there and the team was finally working all together to communal goal.  That goal was to win.  Thinking back on those days make me realize that the players are probably a little more jazzed for their first practice than I am.  As much as fans love settling into a stadium with 70,000 other people for a game, the players still love it more.  If they don’t, there’s a problem.

Continue reading →

2 Comments

Filed under Huskies Football

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

by | August 1, 2011 · 7:44 pm

The Deadline in Review

The trade deadline has come and gone and the Mariners were very active.  In case the folks reading this blog haven’t got enough of a fill on reading about the trades, or actually wanted to know our opinions, here’s one more review.  I’ll get right down to it, as straight forward as possible.  (If you want more, all the Mariner websites have some sort of reveiw.  Here’s Lookout Landing’s.  Here’s USS Mariner.  SSI has several posts about the new prospects.)

Trade #1:  What We Lost:

Doug Fister – Of the three players we’ve lost, Fister is probably the most valuable.  The most talented?  I would say no, but he is the most valuable because he is cheap and under team control for several more years.  Fister doesn’t have the best stuff and that gave him the ‘over-achiever’ label.  What he did have was excellent control and the ability to take advantage of good defenses put behind him.  Fister was always intriguing and I always enjoyed him more than Jason Vargas, just because he didn’t have plus stuff to get people out but still held down the number 3 spot in the rotation and was very successful.  Fister could be successful for a long time, I hope he is, or his lack of dominant stuff might catch up to him.  Time will tell, but he served the Mariners well in his 2 years with the big league club.

David Pauley – David Pauley was a solid reliever for most of the year for the M’s.  With that being said, he wasn’t part of the teams future and isn’t much to write home about.  He’ll provide some bullpen help for the Tigers and that was why he was a part of this deal.

What We Got Back:

Casper Wells – Casper Wells is a 26 year old corner outfielder who came up to the Tigers’ big league club last Summer.  In his debut year his OPS was at .901 in 93 at-bats.  This year his OPS is .765 in 117 at-bats. He’s hit 8 home runs in 210 at-bats in the big leagues but has shown good power in the minors.  He is primarily a corner outfielder but can also play center.  His defense will be average in center (maybe a little better) and plus in one of the corner spots.  He was a 4th outfielder in Detroit because they were in a pennant race but he’ll be the starting left fielder here for the remainder of the season.  He could into a a little better than league average outfielder.  At the very least, I think he’ll be a good 4th outfielder.  At the most, the Mariners may have found their left fielder for the next couple years.

Charlie Furbush – I’ll refrain from any Furbush for Fister jokes…. Charlie Furbush is a left-handed pitcher who is being utilized in the bullpen at the moment.  His fastball is 90-92.  He also has a decent slider and throws a change-up.  He has a deceptive delivery which has drawn comparisons to George Sherril. While he is in the bullpen right now, he will eventually see time in the starting rotation.  Furbush’s ceiling is a number 3 starter.  He’s 25 and has played in AAA and with the Tigers this year.

Francisco Martinez – Francisco is a 20 year old who has already made his way to AA.  He has drawn a lot of comparisons to Carlos Triunfel, which I don’t think is very fair.  Triunfel is a 21 year old who is AA but arrived there when he’s 19.  He was injured, fell off many people’s radar and is still in AA (but he’s putting up decent numbers and is still young).  I think it’s an unfair comparison because they speak of Triunfel like he’s a disappointment.  He’s not yet.  Martinez has been in AA for 2 years and has been solid but not spectacular in those stints.  This year he is hitting .282 with seven home runs in the league this year.  He projects to have solid power but so far his plate discipline isn’t great (that’s where the Triunfel comparison comes from).  Francisco could make it to the majors in the next couple years.  He was the 4th ranked prospect in the Tigers system by a few people, which is pretty exciting.

PTBNL – Cool name, huh?  This player will be one the Tigers’ top 2010 draft picks.  We won’t find out who it is until August 20th.  It should be a good prospect though.

Overview of deal:  Losing Fister is a big deal.  He could have been a mainstay in the rotation for a long time.  But, this isn’t like losing a Felix or Pineda.  Fister won’t ever be an ace.  Losing Pauley is not big deal at all.  With these things in mind, I love the return the Mariners got.  Of course, evaluating trades isn’t fair until a couple of years down the road but at worst the Mariners got back a good 4th outfielder, a good lefty reliever, and two interesting prospects.  At best they got back a starting left fielder who will hit 15-20 home runs, a number 3 or 4 starter, a third baseman with some power, and something else.  I like that upside, but I also like the practicality.  Even if things don’t break right we’ll get something out of this deal.

Deal #2 What We Lost:

Erik Bedard – I love Erik Bedard.  He’s the type of pitcher I could watch for days.  He thinks while he pitches and is crafty.  He’s has all kinds of talent and, when healthy, he’s one of the best pitchers’ in the league.  With that being said, I didn’t know how much trade value he had because of how often he is injured.  I’ll miss Erik but dealing him was a no-brainer because he was going to be a free agent and there was no need for him to be here.

Josh Fields – Josh Fields was a former first-round draft pick who is bad.  Really bad.  I don’t know why the Red Sox wanted him.  Maybe someday he’ll put it all together and not walk every other batter but we didn’t lose anything to be worried about there.

What We Got:

Trayvon Robinson – Trayvon came to us via the Dodgers.  He’s a 24 year old who’s been playing for LA’s AAA affiliate in Albuquerque, which is a hitter’s park to put it lightly.  This discredits some of the 26 home runs Robinson has hit this year.  But, it doesn’t discredit them the way many people on the blogosphere are.  He hit 12 of those home runs on the road and Robinson still would be hitting home runs even if he wasn’t in a dumb park.  He swings and misses a lot, but still can take a walk.  Robinson is a center-fielder with a lot of speed.  SSI compared him today to Curtis Granderson and you can see the similarities in their swings.  Trayvon could be a September call-up.  I’m looking forward to watching him play and he could push Guti out of the door.

Chih-Hsien Chiang – Awesome name.  This guy is another outfielder, although he plays in a corner position.  Chiang is 23 and is absolutely killing AA pitching.  He has a 1.046 OPS right now in his second go around in AA.  He has 58 extra base hits on the year and will move up to AAA soon, I imagine.  He doesn’t have a lot to prove in AA anymore.

Overview:  This trade is great.  2 months of Erik Bedard in a lost season or a top-5 organizational talent along with another interesting prospect.  These guys may not work out, but Pete Carrol would be proud of the way Jack Z has built a competition for an outfield position.

All in all, it’s been a great deadline for the Mariners.  Even with all the bad luck the team has had, you have to think that one of these guys in the outfield competition will turn out.

The team has also won the battle for the coolest names dealing Doug, David, Erik and Josh for Casper, Charlie (Furbush), Francisco, Trayvon and Chih-Hsien.  That doesn’t even take into account PTBNL.  That name doesn’t even have any vowels in it.  There’s a chance the player they acquire may be named Chance.  But, if I was Jack Z, I’d just stick with this PTBNL guy if he’s focusing on coolest names.

I know it’s tough to be a Mariners fan right now but Jack Z has done a good job, he’s just run into a city full of bad luck.  I’m sure he wouldn’t use that as an excuse but the guy knows what he’s doing.  By acquiring all of these outfielders, I think he’s starting to try to make his own luck.

Andrew

Leave a comment

Filed under M's Transaction News, Mariners

Tagged as , , , , , , , ,

by | July 27, 2011 · 10:22 pm

Here Comes the Sun

Yesterday was a dark, dark day in Seattle sports.  One of the worst I can remember, to be honest.  I take no pleasure in recounting it, but, for the sake of this post, I’m going to anyway.

It was a Tuesday, a grey and wet day in Seattle.  Much like the rest of the Summer has been.  It was also grey and wet in New York, which just so happened to be where the Mariners were playing their game.  Were it not for the rain, that threw off C.C. Sabathia’s groove, the Mariners’ were at a very high risk of getting no-hit.  Thankfully, the rain delayed the game for a while and C.C. lost a little bit of his rhythm.  The Mariners’ were one-hit and lost their 17th straight game.  What a relief.

17 straight losses is a franchise record.  17 straight losses is the most consecutive losses in the past 6 years and one of the worst losing streaks of all time.  Jeff Sullivan, at Lookout Landing, mentioned that 17 straight losses has happened less times than perfect games have been thrown in baseball.  It’s amazing.  There was also this look at it from Matthew at Lookout Landing.

But, it could have been worse.  The Mariners could have had a perfect game thrown against them.

Of course, it was worse for Seattle sports fans.  Earlier in the day, before the 17th straight loss, we found out that Matt Hasselbeck would be leaving the Seahawks, via free agency, and the team was going to sign Tarvarias Jackson.  I’ve mentioned that I’m not a huge Seahawk fan (or NFL fan) before, but I was still a bit upset by this news.  Hasselbeck had been quarterback of the Hawks for as long as I’ve paid attention to them.  He led them through the best years that Seattle NFL fans have ever known.  We let him get away and then signed a backup quarterback from Minnesota who no else seemed to want?

Looking back, a lot of the reactions I heard yesterday may have been overreactions. But, at the time I thought they were completely justified.  One of our teams had just lost their 17th game in a row.  The other team had just lost the player that was the franchise icon.  And who knows if the Sonics will get to play this year because of the NBA lockout….. Oh, wait.  Yes, yesterday was a ‘Seattle Sports Fan Day’ by definition.

But, the sun rose and, fortunately, sports move on. Continue reading →

Leave a comment

Filed under Mariners, Seahawks Football

Tagged as , ,

by | July 1, 2011 · 12:01 pm

A Section Built For a King

Not many of us are in the mood to talk about the recent skid the Mariners have been on.  It seems the offense has forgotten how to score runs – even more than usual – and they’ve run into some bad luck.  But, instead of focusing on a team that might be falling out of contention, I’m choosing to focus on a little bit of Mariners’ genius: The King’s Court.  Because there are many reviews and thoughts on the section floating around the M’s blogosphere, I thought I’d give my personal account for anyone interested.

Last Friday night I had a chance to sit in this new section.   If sitting here wasn’t enough to boot, the Mariners were playing the Marlins in a ‘Florida home game’ so Felix had a chance to bat.

My friends (JP and Bernie) and I arrived about an hour before the game started and the section was about half full.  There wasn’t much of an atmosphere in there yet so I opted to go get some Kidd Valley and walk around for a little bit.

Getting back to the seat about half an hour later, a large cheer went through the crowd as Felix was walking out to warm up.  This is where the fun began.  From that point on the section had a buzz.  Most of the seats were full.  On my left, I had a grown man dressed-up as a Jester.  He seemed to be in charge of the section and seemed downright joyful.  You know, the way a true Jester ought to be.  A little closer to me was a 10 or 12-year-old who was dressed as the famous ‘Larry Bernandez.’  It was his birthday and I don’t know if he’ll ever have a better one.  On my right, there were several babies and toddlers dressed up as kings.  Camera men were walking around all over the place, ready to relay the sights and sounds of the nights to TV and the big screen.

The game started and the section was into it right away.  Every 2 strike count brought the crowd to its feet and chants of “K! K! K! K!” would come.  The Jester was awarded the Turkey leg and a celebration started.  It was slowly passed through the crowd until it wound up in Larry’s hand’s.  A slow chant arose from the crowd, “Larry, Larry, Larry…” This happened many times throughout the game (whenever he was shown on the big screen and when he was awarded rally fries later).

Felix was pretty wild through the first 2 innings but managed to escape without giving up any runs.  In the fourth a run scored on a wild pitch and the buzz of the King’s Court was brought down a little bit.  Still, this was an atmosphere that I’d never experienced at Safeco Field.  This was, dare I say it, a playoff atmosphere.

As the game rolled on, the section was waiting for something to happen.  As so often happens, the Mariners’ offense failed to show up through the first six innings.  Felix was rolling though, and if the offense could scratch across something we had to figure the game was over.  That happened in the 7th as the offense somehow got 3 runs across on a few bloop singles.

Felix continued to roll and the buzz in the section hit a new high.  The best comparison I could come up with was like a college basketball game.  The King’s Court was like the Dawg Pack and it got the whole stadium into it, much like what happens in Hec Ed.  Felix made it through 8 innings and only gave up 2 hits.  He was incredible and seemed to really enjoy the section.

Miguel Olivo loved the section too.  In the top of the 9th, a chant was born.  Everyone knows the tale now.  Olivo came up in the top of the 9th with a man on and after a long at bat in which the crowd endlessly chanted, “O-Liv-O, Oh Oh,” Miguel ripped a home run down the left field line.  It was one of the most magical moments I’ve experienced at a baseball game.

Felix was pinch hit for in the top of the 9th, much to the dismay of the fans.  The M’s went on to win the game and the party lasted all 9 innings.

Of course, the section had a few downfalls.  There are always dumb people at sporting events and this game was no exception.  There were 2 girls sitting in front of us who refused to sit down.  They called it supporting their team but only watched about 1 at-bat an inning.  I have no problem with people standing up through most of the game if they’re into it but these two girls weren’t.  Also, there were a few inappropriate chants that came up.  They were somewhat comical (“Dirty Sanchez” for Gaby Sanchez was my favorite) but some shouldn’t have come up.

With that being said, the whole experience was fantastic.  It was a great idea by the Mariners Marketing and a tradition that will live on through the years.  Felix clearly loves it and anything that makes him feel like Seattle is home is fine by me.

My friend Bernie asked me before the game, “If Felix is so great, why does he pitch for the Mariners?”  He didn’t mean it as an insult to the team, he didn’t understand contracts in baseball and was genuinely interested in why one of the best pitchers in baseball would want to be on a team that is perceived as bad.  But, it’s easy to see that the Mariners pull the right strings when it comes to Felix.  He’s a hero in Seattle and with every little marketing move – like the King’s Court – I like to think that Felix will think of Seattle as home for his whole career.

Leave a comment

Filed under Mariners

Tagged as , ,

by | June 3, 2011 · 1:50 pm

Best Mariners Rotation Ever? So Far, Yes (Part 2: Rotation ERA/FIP)

About a week ago we took a look at the amount of runs the Mariners have allowed so far this season in comparison to past Mariner rotations.  This year’s rotation is on a pace that no other Mariner team has been on.

In that post I didn’t separate the rotation from the bullpen, but today we will take a closer look at just the rotation.

ERA (Earned run average) is not regarded as the most reliable stat for a number of reasons, most notably the teams fielding.  But since it’s the most well known stat for pitchers, I’ll dive into it a little bit.

The 5 Mariners starters have the following ERA’s:

  • Michael Pineda – 2.30
  • Felix Hernandez – 3.04
  • Doug Fister – 3.24
  • Erik Bedard – 3.41
  • Jason Vargas 4.50

That gives the rotation a 2.76 ERA total.  There’s a couple of things that are pretty spectacular with these numbers.  First of all, the Seattle Mariners have never had all 5 starters with ERA’s under 4.00.

The 2003 rotation, which is considered by many the best, had two starters over a 4.00 ERA (Freddy Garcia –  4.51 and Gil Meche 4.59).  The 2001 Mariners, the 116 win team, were a little closer.  They had 2 starters over 4.00 (Paul Abbot – 4.25 John Halama – 4.73) but Halama only started half the season.  The 1990 team was the closest of any team, having 3 starters under 4.00 and a 4th starter with an ERA just over 4.03.  They had a variety of 5th starters and a few of them had ERA’s under 4.00.  There wasn’t enough starts by one single person to give him the label as ‘5th starter.’  That rotation had an ERA of 3.67.

Vargas had been under a 4.00 ERA until his last two starts in which he got roughed up a little bit.  I don’t think those starts are anything to worry about, I have a theory but that will be saved for another post, and I bet he’ll be back to himself soon enough.

Simply put, the Mariners’ rotations ERA is set to break a team record, and it’s not even close right now.  This rotation is almost a full run lower than the next lowest in team history.  I’m telling you, these guys are incredible.

If ERA isn’t your stat of choice, then we’ll move on to the next one.  The problem with the newer stats is that it’s harder to compare them to Mariner teams of the past.

Continue reading →

Leave a comment

Filed under Mariners

by | May 27, 2011 · 1:39 am

Best Mariners Rotation Ever? So Far, Yes (Part 1: Runs Allowed)

It’s been a while since we’ve posted on here, sorry.  I can’t really defend myself aside from not being able to watch many Mariner games so I’ve been stuck following them over my laptop.  That said, I intend to post more.

The Mariners are on a streak that we Washingtonians aren’t quite used to.  They’ve won 7 of their last 8 games and are only a game and a half out of first.  If it wasn’t for a bad week from Brandon League they’d be in first and a few games above .500.  For the first time in a couple of years the M’s be playing very meaningful games in the month of June (barring an absolute collapse in the next 5 days).  They’ve been winning games the way they were supposed to win games last year; with great pitching and timely hitting.

Over the course of this hot-streak (which began on April 26th) the Mariners have outscored their opponents 98-71.  That has given the Mariners a record of 16-10 over that stretch.

As you can see that’s a 26 game period and the Mariners have scored 98 runs in those 26 games.  In other words, 3.77 runs a game.  That is not very many.  To set a comparison, The Twins, considered by many to be the American League’s worst offense, have scored 3.5 runs a game during that same amount of time.  The poor Twinkies have gone 7-19 in the last 26 games while putting up only .27 runs/game less than the Mariners (or 7 runs total).

The Bronx Bombers, who may not have the best offense in the Majors this year but continually put out an outstanding offense, have gone 13-13 over the last 26 games.  But unlike the Mariners, they have scored 4.77 runs a game.  That’s a full run better than the Mariners a game (or 26 runs total).  I admit, the Yankees have gotten a little unlucky, since they’ve outscored opponents 124-106 during this stretch and still only came out with a .500 record.  With that said, the point remains that the Mariners have scored 1 run/game less than the Yankees and still have outscored their opponents by 9 runs more than them.

If you’ve read this far, congratulations.  There were far too many numbers in those paragraphs without me even getting to the point.

Clearly, the Mariners are not winning these games with offense.  You don’t need me crunching numbers to tell you that, just take a look at one of their lineup cards.  What the Mariners are doing is winning with pitching.

During this 26 game stretch the M’s have only given up 2.73 runs a game.  That’s insane.  It’s just a small sample size you say?  Fair enough, but if you count the whole season instead of just the hot streak  the M’s are still only giving up 3.73 runs/game.  That is incredible, especially considering Erik Bedard’s slow start and the bullpen collapses by Brandon League.  Every team will suffer a few blow outs and without those the numbers would be even lower.

Now, to the point of what this series is about:  Does this number show that this is the best Mariners rotation ever?  Here’s a few numbers from past rotations to compare.

2011 Mariners (Through 49 games) – 3.73 runs allowed/game
2010 Mariners – 4.31 runs allowed/game (This rotation included Felix, Fister, Vargas, and Cliff Lee for half a year.  Not too shabby.)
2009 Mariners – 4.27 runs allowed/game  (A Team that won with pitching first, much like this year.  But they don’t hold a candle to what this team is doing.)
2007 Mariners – 5.02 runs allowed/game  (A year in which the Mariners which 88-74, their best year since 2003.  This year the M’s did it with their bats (Jose Vidro is somewhere smiling).  And luck.)
2003 Mariners – 3.93 runs allowed/game  (Considered by many the best Mariners rotation ever, the ’03 Mariners used the same 5 starters all year.  They put up great numbers but are still .2 runs behind this year’s squad.  .2 runs amasses to 32.4 runs over 162 games, if you were wondering.)
2001 Mariners – 3.87 runs allowed/game  (This team set a Major League record for wins and they’re still behind by a good amount.)
1997 Mariners – 5.14 runs allowed/game  (The Mariners won their division this year.  Obviously they were more hitting oriented.)
1995 Mariners – 4.88 runs allowed/game  (The magical year.  Obviously, the same goes as 1997.)
1991 Mariners – 4.16 runs allowed/game  (The first year the Mariners were above .500 and also their lowest amount of runs until the 2001 team.)
1977 Mariners – 5.28 runs allowed/game  (The first Mariners team.)

As you can see, this team is ahead of any Mariners team in giving up runs.  If they keep the current pace of 3.73 runs/game they’d end up giving 604 runs the entire year.  Allowing less than 600 runs in a year has only happened 4 times since the steroid era began.  The teams that have accomplished this are last year’s Padres and Giants, the ’03 Dodgers, the ’02 Braves (Thank you NL West, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, and Greg Maddux).  The Braves and Phillies are on pace to easily do it this year but this feat hasn’t happened in the American League since the early ’90’s.  The Mariners have a shot at something special, and it’s not just contention.

Disclaimer:  I do realize that runs allowed has other factors involved than just the starting rotation, most notably the bullpen and defense.  Also, I should include that Safeco Field is a pitcher’s park (just like Petco and Target Field where the Mariners have had their hot streak).  But, the rotation’s ERA is much lower than the bullpen’s and that’s saying something because the bullpen has been solid.  Also, the defense has been a little below average so far in most fielding metrics.

So, there you go.  That’s some basic stats that show you just how good the Mariners rotation has been thus far and how they stack up historically.  We’ll look at some different factors in the next couple days.  For now, just enjoy what’s been the best Mariners rotation ever, so far….

Andrew

2 Comments

Filed under Mariners