Author Archives: Matthew

Wait ‘Til Next Year- Bullpen

The bullpen is probably the hardest position to forecast because relievers tend to be pretty volatile in their perfomances.  Because they throw so few innings compared to starters, and because each outing is usually for a few innings at most, there can be a lot of luck in their numbers and perfomances.  Even if a guy’s not especially lucky in what happens when he throws the ball, it’s not uncommon to see a reliever have a great year followed up by a mediocre or worse season.  Most relievers are guys with positives (good stuff usually, maybe good command) but also glaring negatives (no command with the good stuff, etc.).  Sometimes they come out and everything is working, and sometimes it isn’t.  Sometimes that changes the next time out, sometimes it lasts all year.  Sometimes they’re just bad pitchers.

For all those reasons and others, bullpens tend to turn over a lot, year to year.  Relievers, aside from established closers and occasionally set-up men, don’t generall make big contracts, and with good reason, as we’ve discussed above.  Teams who give big contracts to relievers don’t often come out on top.  In recent seasons, especially since Zduriencik took over, the Mariners have mostly taken the approach of finding as many guys with big arms and good stuff as they can and waiting to see which ones work out.  Brandon League probably cost the most, as the team gave up Brandon Morrow for him.  Everyone else that I can think of was either in the system or signed or traded for with little talent or money lost.  The results have been mixed, but we’ll get into whether the process is good another day.

Roster breakdown after the jump!

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Series Preview- M’s vs. Padres 5/21-5/23

Jumping right in!

Who Would You Rather Have?

(Picks in bold.  Line-ups from tonight’s game.)

C:  M’s Josh Bard vs. SD Nick Hundley.  Disclaimer to start: I know nothing about Hundley or a lot of other guys on the Padres.  This is mostly a guess.  He’s youngish, was decent but not too good offensively last year, not doing a lot this year.  Bard’s been smacking the ball, so I’ll take him.  It would take hardly anything to convince me otherwise.

1B:  M’s Kotchman vs. SD Adrian Gonzalez.  I’m pretty sure about this one.

2B:  M’s Figgins vs. SD David Eckstein.  Eckstein’s actually having a better year, but I can’t pick him on principle.

3B:  M’s Lopez vs. SD Chase Headley.  Not sure how Headley is defensively, but as long as Lopez is hitting this poorly, it doesn’t matter a lot.

SS:  M’s Josh Wilson vs. SD Everth Cabrera.  Neither guy is too good from what I can tell.  Wilson is hitting a little better, so we’ll take him, but I have zero conviction in this pick.

LF:  M’s Milton vs. SD Scott Hairston.  Hairston’s probably been a touch better, actually.

CF:  M’s Guti vs. SD Chris Denorfio

RF:  M’s Ichiro vs. SD Will Venable

DH:  M’s Sweeney vs. SD Oscar Salazar.  This is the saddest match-up of DHs in history.

That’s 7-2 Mariners.  Wow!  These are two bad line-ups.  Guti and Ichi are the only M’s picks that are really beyond debate, same with A-Gon for the Padres.  The rest are pretty debateable.

Pitching Match-ups

Friday:  M’s Cliff Lee vs. SD Wade LeBlanc

Saturday:  M’s Ian Snell vs. SD Clayton Richard.  Richard came over in the Peavy trade and isn’t having a great year, but better than Ian Snell.  No idea what to expect from Snell.  He’s been a little better in relief, so hopefully that will carry over.

Sunday:  M’s Felix vs. SD Matt Latos.  Latos is great.  He’s just not Felix.

Closer: M’s Aardsma vs. SD Heath Bell.  I remember seeing Bell for the first time and being extremely impressed.  Big fastball and slider, if I remember right.  He’s tough.  Aardsma’s been throwing well lately when I’ve seen him.

Pitching’s even, but the Mariners have their two aces going.  Hopefully Felix is back to form.  That San Diego line-up is just as bad as the Mariners if you can contain Gonzalez.  I have no idea how they’re having such a good season.  Can anyone who knows more about the Padres fill me in?  If Snell throws well and we score even a few runs, we’ve got a good chance at a sweep.  I’ll be more than happy with two wins.

Go Mariners!  Believe big!

-Matthew

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Wait ‘Til Next Year- Starting Pitching

It’s hard to get excited enough about Seattle sports lately to want to write about them, so I haven’t much lately.  The Mariners are in a weird spot.  The season’s not over, but they need to make a run and get to .500 or so at least by the all-star break.  They’re not an old team, necessarily, but they don’t have a lot of young guys who need playing time to develop.  Most of their top minors talent is at Class AA right now, at best, and would be pushing it to make the club next year, especially out of spring training.

Whether the team decides to trade Cliff Lee for some young talent or not, this team needs to make moves to get better for next year.  The next month or two will determine how focused on this year those moves also need to be.  I’m not writing off this year yet, but let’s take a look at how the team shapes up for 2011.

Current roster guys under contract for next year will be in bold.  I’ll also include minor leaguers who might provide depth, along with how soon and much they might contribute.

Note: after writing this starting pitching section, I realized this post would be a good 3,000 words, so I’m going to break it up by position.  Starting pitching today, bullpen up next when I get the chance.

Starting Pitching

Felix Hernandez

Jason Vargas

Doug Fister

Ryan-Rowland Smith

Luke French, Garrett Olson, Steven Shell:  Triple-A filler type.  Could step into the last spot in the rotation at any time and probably be okay.  If you get lucky one of them gets hot for a month or year, but not likely to have a lasting impact.

Michael Pineda:  The Double-A star.  Best stuff in the Mariners system, could move fast if he stays healthy.  Decent chance to be in the rotation at some point in 2011.  Actual results if that were to happen unclear.

Mauricio Robles, Steven Hensley, Daniel Cortes, Nick Hill: Rest of the AA rotation.  Less likely to see the bigs in 2011 than Pineda due to experience or talent level, but still a chance.  Much more upside than the guys in Tacoma, but not as ready even for the back end of the rotation.

Potential Losses

Ian Snell  Club has a 6.75 mil. option.  If it’s exercised, that means either Snell turned into Zack Greinke or Zduriencik went actually clinically insane.

Cliff Lee  Who knows at this point.  Team could try to resign him, but it’s doubtful he would do it during the season, and he might not fit the budget anyway.  He could be traded, or they could just let him walk and take draft picks.  Could still be signed after the season in either case, but that’s doubtful.

Erik Bedard  This is an even bigger mystery than Lee.  No reason to speculate either way until we see him on the field.

Analysis

There’s Felix and a whole lot of question marks.  Even if Vargas and Fister stay close to their current level all season, I still wouldn’t feel completely comfortable with them as my 2 and 3 starters heading into the year.  They really need to either keep Lee or find a guy with decent upside and established success.  They need a legit #2 starter, basically.

-Matthew

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Series Preview- M’s vs. Blue Jays 5/19-5/20

The Mariners return home for a quick series, which is good because the Blue Jays are pretty solid.  Of course, everyone looks good compared to the Mariners right now.  This season is so strange.  It’s certainly not going well, but they are legitimately one of the least lucky teams I’ve seen in a lot of different areas.

Milton Bradley is back tonight, which is excellent news.  That Sean White is going to Tacoma to make room on the roster is a big bonus.  If this were a movie, the team would come together with a rousing speech from Ichiro, start to hit like crazy, and win their next 20 in a row.  It’s not a movie, but I think a quick change in fortunes wouldn’t be surprising and could happen at any time.  Am I counting on it?  Not anymore, but crazy things happen.

Who Would You Rather Have?

(Pick is in bold.  Line-ups are from tonight’s game.)

C:  M’s Josh Bard vs. Jays John Buck

1B:  M’s Casey Kotchman vs. Jays Lyle Overbay.  They’re having almost an identical season offensively, which is not a good thing for either of them, so I’ll take Kotch for the defense.

2B:  M’s Chone Figgins vs. Jays Aaron Hill.  Two more guys having extremely similar disappointing seasons.  Figgins is again a little better defensively.  If this were last year, I’d probably take Hill for the power.

3B:  M’s Lopez vs. Jays Edwin Encarnacion.  A normal year from Lopez would make them about even offensively.

SS:  M’s Josh Wilson vs. Jays Alex Gonzalez

LF:  M’s Bradley vs. Jays Fred Lewis.  If Bradley starts hitting now that he’s back this changes quickly.  I don’t remember ever hearing of Lewis, but he’s having a decent year.

CF:  M’s Guti vs. Jays Vernon Wells.  Really tough choice here.  Wells is having a renaissance year, but Guti’s been good and is significantly better defensively.  Still, Wells’ power is what this team needs right now.  I don’t know if it’ll last, but he’s my pick for now.

RF:  M’s Ichiro vs. Jays Jose Bautista.  Bautista has 11 homers.  They Jays have 3 guys with 10 or 11 homers, and two are Bautista and Gonzalez.  Weird.

DH:  M’s Sweeney vs. Jays Adam Lind

That’s 6-3 Blue Jays.  Toronto seems to have mostly guys who are under- or overperfoming.  The Mariners have a couple of guys where you’d expect them and a bunch way below.

Pitching Match-ups

Wednesday:  M’s Doug Fister vs. Jays Brett Cecil.  Cecil’s young and has shown lots of K’s and overall good results in the minors, but hasn’t been anything great so far this year.

Thursday:  M’s Vargas vs. Jays Ricky Romero

Closer:  M’s Aardsma vs. Jays Kevin Gregg

2-1 Blue Jays.  Toronto’s a pretty faceless team.  I don’t really know what to expect this series.  Hopefully the Mariners will build on yesterday’s offense and get a better result.

Go Mariners!  Believe big!

-Matthew

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Series Preview- M’s @ Rays 5/14-5/16

These two teams just played, so I won’t do a big preview here.  Since Tampa swept the Mariners in Seattle, they’ve been perfect gamed (is that right?) but are still leading baseball with a 24-10 record.  Good news is they’re at home, where they have 6 of their losses and a worse winning percentage than they do on the road.  I doubt it will matter.

The Mariners are playing slightly better, but don’t have many wins to show for it.  In my mind, it’s become crystal clear that Chone Figgins is the key to the season, much like we thought at the start of the year.  If he starts hitting enough to drive in Ichiro and the bottom of the order on occasion, that brings in runs and puts his OBP up closer to .400.  If he and Ichiro are getting on base 40% of the time (really more if you account the errors they tend to force) it’s going to be hard for this team not to score more runs.  If/when Figgins starts hitting, this offense will take off, relatively speaking.  I just hope it’s when and not if, and the when is fairly soon.  If he stays this bad all year, it’s going to take the rest of the team hitting at a pretty high level, which means the season’s over.

Pitching Match-ups

Friday:  Doug Fister vs. Wade Davis

Saturday: Jason Vargas vs. James Shields

Sunday:  Cliff Lee vs. Matt Garza

Davis is the only guy we didn’t see in the last series.  He’s another young perennial top prospect, but I don’t honestly know a ton about him.  I think I picked him in our preview as AL Rookie of the Year, and he seems like a groundballer type, but don’t quote me on that.  He has a 3.18 ERA so far this year, but his xFIP is 4.81, so there’s some perceived luck in there.  We’ll see.  He’ll probably shut us down. 

Thinking positively, we have our three best starters going (by current numbers), and… Michael Saunders!!!  I always knew that guy was the answer.  Good chance he wins the Triple Crown, and if he hadn’t missed the Kentucky Derby already, he’d probably win two Triple Crowns.  On another note, there’s a cool dog outside my window.  Looks kind of like an Arctic Fox!

Go Mariners!  Believe big!

-Matthew

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Series Preview- M’s vs. Angels 5/7-5/9

It seems strange to be playing the Angels for the first time in May, but we’re definitely catching them at the right time.  Or at as close to the right time as this Mariner team will ever get.  There’s no point in writing anymore, so on with the preview!

Who Would You Rather Have?

(Picks in bold. Line-ups are for tonight.)

C:  M’s Rob Johnson vs. LAA Ryan Budde.  I know nothing about Ryan Budde.  He’s 1 for 3 on the year.  He’s older than I am, so I’m guessing he’s either a journeyman or an organizational guy.  This pick is more based on Mike Napoli, who I’m guessing will be catching the other games.  I still might take Budde over Ro-Jo on name alone.  It’s always good to have a Budde.

1B: M’s Kotchman vs. LAA Kendry Morales

2B: M’s Figgins vs. LAA Howie Kendrick.  This one’s pretty close to a toss-up.  Kendrick has been a little better so far.

3B: M’s Lopez vs. LAA Brandon Wood. A battle of disappointing third basemen.  Wood’s been even worse than Lopez.

SS:  M’s Josh Wilson vs. LAA Erick Aybar. Aybar’s been disappointing too, but come on, it’s Josh Wilson.

LF:  M’s Michael Saunders vs. LAA Juan Rivera.  Saunders makes his 2010 debut.  If this were another team, he’d continue his 5-game hot streak in the minors.  With the Mariners, he’ll probably strike out four times.

CF:  M’s Guti vs. LAA Torii Hunter

RF:  M’s Ichiro vs. LAA Bobby Abreu

DH:  M’s Griffey vs. LAA Hideki Matsui

That’s 6-3 Angels, but they’re not hitting well right now either.  That’s a pretty scary in a bad way line-up for the M’s, though.

Pitching Match-ups

Saturday:  M’s Felix vs. LAA Jered Weaver

Saturday:  M’s Fister vs. LAA Joe Saunders

Sunday:  M’s Vargas vs. LAA Ervin Santana

Closer:  M’s Aardsma vs. LAA Fernando Rodney.  Whatever.

Sweep for the Mariners in pitching.  If only it were that easy on the field. 

Go Mariners!  Believe big!

-Matthew

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Michael Saunders Up

Edit–See below as well.  Joe and I published the exact same thing, but he beat me.  Sorry Joe!

Milton Bradley has been placed on the restricted list while he undergoes some counseling and what not.  He has to stay on it for at least 5 days, but he’ll likely be longer than that.  Baker speculates that a week from tomorrow is the earliest we’d see him again.  He’s remaining in Seattle, but not traveling or doing anything with the team for now.

Michael Saunders has been called up to take his place.  He started the year at Tacoma in a terrible slump, but has been on a tear for the last week or so.  He’s been retooling his swing, so hopefully something has clicked now.  Most likely, he’ll not play much.  I could see him getting a start or two, but he’ll mostly be a back-up/pinch-runner type. 

The team hopes Jack Wilson will only be out for a day or two, so they haven’t made a roster move with him.  Hope for no injuries to infielders, because there’s no one on the bench to replace them, except at first.  If someone got injured, they could send down a pitcher (Sean White!) and bring up Tui again, but hopefully it won’t come to that.

Go Mariners!  Tonight is the night to assert your long-awaited dominance!

-Matthew

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The Rights of Fans

Sports teams and players and their fans have always had a complicated relationship, and that won’t change anytime soon.  Athletes are often the most visible and popular people in a city or region, and at least in the professional ranks, fans are indirectly responsible for their salaries.  Combine that with the role sports teams and athletes play in fans’ personal lives, as entertainment and vicarious dream fulfillment, and fans tend to develop a sense of ownership over their favorite athletes and teams.

Seattle fans currently find themselves in a couple of messy situations.  One involves a high school student from Portland who happens to be one of the best basketball players in the country.  The other centers around a 32-year-old man with a big bat and seemingly even bigger personal troubles.  The stories are probably familiar to everyone by now.  Terrence Jones, maybe the top uncommitted basketball player in the country, held a press conference on Friday to announce his choice of college.  He picked the Huskies, but has yet to sign a letter of intent, which would make the choice official.  There are next to no facts about the situation, but that hasn’t prevented fans and media alike from throwing accusations and judgments, at Jones for delaying the commitment, and at Kentucky coach John Calipari for trying to change his mind, and at anyone else involved, including Jones’ family and friends.

Meanwhile, Milton Bradley, a man with a well-documented history of blow-ups and suspensions, stormed off the field Tuesday night after striking out, and upon seeing Don Wakamatsu had removed him from the game, left the stadium.  Wednesday, he met with Jack Zduriencik and Wakamatsu and later the team.  He reportedly told them he was dealing with some very difficult personal issues and asked for their help.  He’ll sit out for the forseeable future while the team tries to get him whatever help he needs.

The situations are very different, except that they both have more to do with off the field (or court) issues than anything to do with performance.  That’s not totally the case, of course.  If it were, fans would not be at all interested.  Bradley’s issues affect his play and the rest of the team; Jones is a huge talent whose presence could lift any team to the next level.  And so fans find themselves stuck between caring about their team and respecting the personal life of the athlete.

It’s a difficult place, but mainly because we as fans do not have a personal relationship with Jones or Bradley or any other athlete.  They are the athlete who entertains us, but that’s all, and we don’t give anything back.  Nearly any of us, if faced with a colleague or friend or family member who was asking for help or making a difficult decision, would try to help them any way we could.  We wouldn’t deride them or criticize them.  We might be disappointed in their choice or think occasionally about our interests in the matter, but usually we can set ourselves aside and be supportive of those we love.

I don’t see any reason why that should be different with athletes.  I want to see Jones and Bradley playing and playing well in Seattle, and if they don’t I’ll be disappointed and maybe mad.  But I won’t boo them or write insults and racial slurs on their Facebook pages.  Rivalries and “sports-hate”, as Bill Simmons terms it, have a great place in sports.  There’s nothing wrong with booing the Oregon band when they run into Husky Stadium.  They know we’re booing because they’re from University of Oregon and anyone involved with the Ducks should be booed.  They’ll boo us right back.  The difference is that we all know that if we were Mariner fans and went to a game together, we’d probably have a great time.  Or we might not, but it would be because we didn’t get along, not because they’re Ducks and I’m a Husky.  If a rivalry is full of hatred to the point where that’s no longer true, it’s gone too far in my opinion.

So keep the the affection or lack thereof based on the field.  Boo A-Rod when he comes to town, but don’t boo Milton Bradley because he’s going through some tough times, and don’t give Terrance Jones a hard time because he isn’t sure what to choose in the biggest decision of his life.

-Matthew

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