Category Archives: Mariners

The Seattle Times has  a poll question up, asking, “Which of these pitchers will win the most games for the Mariners this season?”  The choices are Erik Bedard, Doug Fister, Luke French, Ian Snell, and Jason Vargas, the five names most likely to occupy the final two spots in the Mariners’ rotation.  It’s an important question in some ways, not so important in another, so let’s take a look at these guys and the back end of the rotation. Lookout Landing just did the same thing, with numbers, so check that out too.

There are a few other names to consider for these spots: Nick Hill, Ryan Feierabend, maybe Garrett Olson if he gets a new left arm or everyone else’s ams fall off.  I think Hill in particular could eventually end up in the rotation, but for now he hasn’t pitched above Double-A and is more likely to break camp in the bullpen or go to Triple-A Tacoma.  It wouldn’t be at all surprising if the team acquired another starter, but as it stands now, two of these five are likely to break camp in the rotation.

Both Danny and I have written about Bedard, and I see him in a different category from the rest.  If or when he is healthy, even to say 90% of his previous level, he is the best pitcher of this group.  Even if his stuff only comes back to 75%, he’s probably as good as the others.  We just don’t know if he can come back or when it will be.

Ian Snell appears to have the inside track on the #4 spot.  He has the most experience and potential of the non-Bedards, but was inconsistent and generally unimpressive after coming over from the Pirates midseason.  Abundant theories (depression, lack of deception in his motion) have been posited regarding his ineffectiveness, but we’ll just say an Ian Snell at or near his early Pirate days would be an above average #4 or 5 starter and go a long way toward a successful Mariners season.

The other three fall into the low-upside, some majors experience category.  French came from the Tigers in the Washburn trade and was fairly bad, but had some success with Detroit.  Vargas spent a lot of time in the M’s rotation and in my mind, his solid change-up gives him the inside track on the #5 spot.  Fister, the only righty of the three, has below-average stuff but occasionally above-average command.  All three pitched in the bigs in 2009, at times successfully, at times not.

Short of having two proven veterans or blue chip prospects to slot in, the situation is  set up as well as you could ask.  The key is having one of Bedard or Snell, particularly Snell, perform.  If Snell pitches at or above league average, he is a good #4 and potentially the best #5 in the league if Bedard can come back at some point.  Filling one spot from the Vargas/Fister/French group, while not ideal, worked fine last year.  It’s likely at least one of them (or another pitcher in the system) will be throwing well at any given time, leaving it up to Wakamatsu and Zduriencik to find the right one.  We’re likely to see multiple pitchers get a decent number of starts for the team, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing.  In the years of Batista and Silva, their big contracts made it difficult to switch them out when they weren’t performing, an issue that won’t come up with a player making the league minimum.

It doesn’t matter a great deal which of these players ends up with the most wins (or best ERA or FIP or whatever).  It only matters that two of them pitch well at any given time, and it seems to me the odds of that are surprisingly good.

-Matthew

Sorry, too many words in that last post.  Here’s my more concise view on the potential Erik Bedard signing.

Signing Erik Bedard for $1.5 mil. + incentives is like winning some sweet-looking Prada shoes for $25 on Ebay.  You’re excited, because it doesn’t happen very often.  You know they might end up being unwearable: too small, or really beat up, or in that class of weird-ugly Prada footwear instead of awesome Prada footwear.  But it’s only $25, and if they turn out good, you just got $400 shoes for a fraction of the price.

Also, make sure you read Danny’s post below, which I have now completely buried.

-Matthew

Few moves have had the impact of the Seattle Mariners initial acquisition of Erik Bedard.  Following the Mariners’ first winning season in years, the 2007-08 off-season was difficult to get a handle on.  Many felt 2007 had been a year of surprisingly good, unsustainable luck for the team.  Some wanted GM Bill Bavasi fired.  Others saw an annually increasing win total and held to hope of a contender.

At some point, Bedard’s name started flying in rumors, and eventually he was acquired for 5 players.  Opinion was again heavily divided.  Few complained about having Bedard on the team, but most felt the team had overspent to acquire him, especially given the team’s status as anything but a sure contender.  Still, the future of the rotation, and the team in general, looked positive.

And then, it quickly fell apart.  Bedard was named opening day starter, a move that seemed to disappoint Felix Hernandez and likely added unnecessary pressure on Bedard.  He refused to play nice with the local media, answering most questions rudely or with one word answers. They proceeded to question and doubt every move he made.

Bedard pitched well when the season started, if not up to the level of 2007, when he was legitimately one of the few best pitchers in baseball.  There were steady complaints that he threw only 100 pitches per start, even though that’s the common point when most pitchers lose their effectiveness.  And then he got hurt, and the Mariners finished with the second worst record in baseball.  They fired Bavasi, and it’s not a stretch to think that had Bedard put together the Cy Young-type year hoped for, Bavasi might still be around. 

Instead, Jack Zduriencik was hired.  The team was largely rebuilt, and Ken Griffey Jr. came home and tickled Ichiro all the way to the happiest 85 win team in history.  Bedard contributed, starting the year pitching like we all hoped he would when he came from Baltimore, but then he got hurt again, the dreaded torn labrum, and it looked like Seattle’s last vision of Erik Bedard would be as the symbol of Bill Bavasi’s tenure: he was everything we hoped for that didn’t come true, and we were glad to see him go. 

Now, pending a physical, he’s back.  And this time, he is somehow a demonstration of everything we love about the new Mariners.  He’s not being depended on or overpaid, and he isn’t Carlos Silva.  If he’s good, it will likely mean the playoffs.  If he’s not, oh well.  The team will find someone else, and it will still hopefully mean the playoffs.  It’s not all or nothing this time.

Some will see it as a risky signing, because there’s a strong chance he won’t return from the surgery, to his previous level or at all.  Really, there’s little risk.  The only way he’s paid more than $1.5 million is if he earns it.  He’s not costing them Adam Jones or George Sherrill or Chris Tillman, much less all three plus a couple more.  With any luck (or a lot of luck), he’ll pitch in June and by August and September he’ll be the dominant starter on a playoff team the Mariners thought they were getting two years ago.  If not, we’ve been down this road before.  Only now, Bedard is the potential cherry on top, not the whole sundae.

-Matthew