by | May 5, 2012 · 12:31 pm

Prospect Hot Sheet

One of my favorite things to read during the baseball season is Baseball America’s weekly Prospect Hot Sheet.  It’s published every Friday (here’s yesterday’s) and there’s an accompanying mid-day online chat with one of BA’s writers.  You might have to be a subscriber to participate in the chat, I’m really not sure, but it’s fun to read through later.

The Hot Sheet isn’t a weekly reranking of the best prospects in baseball, as the introduction points out.  It’s just a ranking of which guys had the best week in the minors, with the selection skewed heavily towards guys who are actual prospects.  You won’t see many guys in their late 20’s, except maybe in the “Man Among Boys” category.

Yesterday’s Hot Sheet was the fourth of the year.  The first two contained Mariners prospects, the last two haven’t.  Going by memory, Danny Hultzen, Taijuan Walker and Brad Miller have all made appearances, and I think Nick Franklin might have snuck into the “Team Photo”.

There’s nothing too revelatory in this post.  I just wanted to pass along the link.  The Hot Sheet and chat is a good way to get to know prospects throughout baseball and keep up on who’s having a good year.

Talking quickly about the Mariners minors, all the talk has been about Double-A Jackson, which BA called the most talented team in the minors.  Continue reading →

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by | May 4, 2012 · 8:21 pm

Ichiro!

Listening to KJR in the wake of the Chone Figgins benching, I heard the question asked why Ichiro isn’t moving into the leadoff spot instead of Dustin Ackley.  That’s a legitimate question, insofar as you think batting order matters.  I honestly don’t care much about it.  What is more interesting to me is the conversation on Ichiro.

When it was decided that he would move to third in the order, a lot was made of how he would have to change his approach to hit with more authority.  Fans talked about it, Wedge acknowledged it, Ichiro even came to camp with a revamped swing.  A month into the season, he’s pretty much back to his old swing, and going by what I heard on the radio today, people think that he’s pretty much the same old Ichiro.

I guess if you thought he was going to turn into Barry Bonds or Adam Dunn or something, then he hasn’t changed that much.  If you’re a little more realistic and look into the numbers a bit deeper, we’re seeing a changed Ichiro.  Continue reading →

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by | April 28, 2012 · 10:22 am

Draft Fun

I don’t have a whole lot of thoughts on the draft so far.  I like it when the Seahawks surprise everyone, just because it’s entertaining to hear everyone react.  Their picks seem fine, but I can’t say I’m overwhelmed one way or the other.  Maybe one of the other writers here will do an analysis later, but the Seahawks are probably my least favorite Seattle team (not that I don’t like them, they’re just much lower on my priorities), so I won’t probably write a ton about it.

That being said, the draft and its bloggers have given us at least two pieces of greatness:

First we have new Seahawk quarterback Russell Wilson and his wife.  Mostly his wife.  This is somewhere between scary and awesome, but I hope she’s a permanent fixture on Seahawk telecasts.

And here are first round reactions in GIFs.  So good.  This is my favorite thing I’ve seen on the internet all month.  Maybe all year.  Edit- I didn’t realize he’s gone through the third round.  Make sure you at least scroll down to the Bryan Anger pick at #70. Enjoy!

-Matthew

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by | April 27, 2012 · 7:25 pm

The Condor Has Landed!

I was planning to write about Mariner minor leaguers, but after what the big club just did, the little guys can wait.  The Mariners just beat Toronto 9-5, and if you missed it, you missed out.  When I got home from work, Ricky Romero was working on a no-hitter in the middle innings.  Ackley ripped a double to break that up soon after, but the Mariners were still trailing, then it was tied, then they were trailing, and so forth.

I don’t remember the order of everything that happened, so you’ll have to read Geoff Baker’s game story if you want that, but there were a lot of memorable moments.  Jesus Montero hit a homer to left center with an apparently cracked bat.  Casper Wells ripped a double to right center to tie the game.  Ichiro threw a rocket home to get a third out and keep the game tied.  There were two errors at first on pickoff attempts, one by Wilhelmsen that contributed to the Blue Jays taking a 5-3 lead in the eighth.  The other was by Toronto’s catcher and went clear to the right field corner.  Kawasaki was on the ground for 5 seconds before he noticed the error and still made it to third easily.  Then Jaso, pinch hitting with two outs in the ninth, singled him home.  Colby Rasmus lucked into a barehand stop while diving to keep it from going for an inside the park homerun.  Ackley was thrown out at home on an ill-fated attempt to score.

After some nice work by the bullpen to take it to extras, it was Michael Saunders time.  He had already slugged a homer in the ninth to start the inning.  In the tenth, after Smoak, Montero and Liddi all reached base, The Condor stepped in with one out and a lefty on the hill.  One swing later, on a lefty slider no less, Saunders hit a towering fly that carried and carried until it eventually dropped over the right field fence for a grand slam.  Brandon League shut the door and the Mariners had their most memorable win of a young season.  I just reread this paragraph and I did a terrible job communicating how exciting this was.  I’m usually pretty quiet watching games, especially since I’ve had a cold all week, and I yelled at least three times.  This felt like some moment of destiny, a little gift saying, “Here, remember how great baseball is?  Don’t give up!”

This is finally starting to feel like a new era.  The Mariners are 11-10.  I’m not expecting them to contend this year.  I’ll be very happy if they finish at .500.  The Mariners are almost entirely youth now, so winning means that these players we’re banking on are starting to come through.  They’re still going to struggle at times.  Some guys are not going to stick.  This season is still about figuring out who’s a part of the future, about giving the young guys time to develop and mature.  That’s what’s important.  Wins are icing on the cake, and yet they’re necessary to gain any good feeling about this team.  It’s important that they win while doing developing guys.  You don’t want to develop losers.  Players have to learn to win, and they have to develop to the point where they are good enough to win.  It’s a weird circle that’s hard to get into, which is why so many teams are constantly bad and rebuilding.

Winning is a sign that they’re performing, but it also puts them in the habit of winning.  I’ve been on teams, and watched teams, that expected to win every time they took the field.  Sometimes it’s because the talent is superior, sometimes there’s something magical about it; the best and most memorable (2001 M’s, Tuiasosopo Huskies) are a combination of both.  It always starts with winning though.  You don’t learn to win by losing.  That’s why you can’t completely write off a season, even if you’re rebuilding, and why it’s so hard and dangerous to go without any veterans, even if that veteran is Miguel Olivo.  I have no idea if the Mariners will ever get to that point of expecting to win, but nights like tonight remind what it feels like.  This is a team of likeable, competetive guys.  They have talent, and for the first time in a while, they’re starting to have personality.  There will be some tough nights in Texas in July, but take tonight as a sign that we’re going to have plenty of fun this summer and for a long time to come.

-Matthew

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by | April 25, 2012 · 10:32 pm

NFL Draft–The 12th Pick

Tomorrow night, 32 players will be drafted into the NFL, and most will start for their respective teams in 2012. In the span of 3 days, every team will select a number of players that may make an immediate impact. This is what makes the NFL draft so unique, so exciting. The NFL draft is a 3 day bonanza, and although similar drafts happen in all pro sports, none compares to the NFL. So, how might things shape up for the hometown Hawks, specifically with the 12th pick?

Seahawks Top Needs-DE, LB

A cliché you hear around draft time is “take the best player available.” In other words, when you are on the clock, take the guy with the highest grade on your big board. I think some of this is posturing by teams because it sounds good to pick the guy with the highest overall grade, but the reality is teams usually draft to fill needs. For the Seahawks, most agree the “pressing” need is finding a stud to pressure the QB. For this reason, most mockers have the Hawks taking a defensive end with the 12th pick. That may well be what we see happen tomorrow night, and I’d be excited. But let’s understand the many layers that play into a pick, particularly a 1st round selection.

First, everything depends on what happens in picks 1-11. At this point, I’d guess Schneider and Carroll have zoomed in on 2-3 players, depending on how things shake out. In addition to this uncertainty, every draft is different in terms of how deep it is at specific positions, how many elite players there are, and whether or not a trade partner might exist. It’s easy to say the Seahawks need a lineabacker after Hawthorne signed with the Saints, so naturally this could be addressed with the 12th pick. But what if Seattle has graded the top 3 LBs 91, 89, 88, and they are confident one will be there with the 43rd pick. Why use the 12th pick on the 91 grade, when you can get the 88 or 89 in the 2nd round?

Back to the 2-3 players JS/PC have in mind. Believe it or not, the Good Guys don’t actually have access to the Seahawks war room, so I’ve not yet seen their big board. This is, therefore, speculation on my part.

Plan A-Ryan Tannehill. Danny O’Neill and Peter King have both insisted that if Tannehill were available with the 12th pick, Seattle would take him in a flash. This is hard for some fans to understand, in light of the Matt Flynn signing, but I’m buying it. It’s probably 50/50 whether Flynn will turn into a franchise QB, so Tannehill provides insurance if Flynn sucks. He could sit for a couple years, then either take over, or be trade bait. He has a ton of upside, similar to Jake Locker in many ways. The problem is, Tannehill seems destined for Miami, who holds the 8th pick.
Plan B-Fletcher Cox. The top D-lineman in the draft would be a heck of a fit in Seattle. Cox is not a speed rusher, but he is a versatile, 3 technique that could would be an immediate upgrade. There is a chance Cox slides to 12, but in all likelihood, he, like Tannehill, will go in the top 10.

    Plan C-The pick…Quinton Coples.

This is plan C, so if a trade can be made here, it would make sense. Assuming the Hawks make a selection, Coples is a freak and a guy Carroll might be enamored with. It’s hard not to compare Coples to Julius Peppers. He’s 6-6, 285 lbs, and a Tarheel. For awhile, Coples was graded by many as the top defensive player in the draft. There are concerns about his motor, that he takes plays off. Pete may just see this as a challenge.

It could be that PC/JS like South Carolina’s Melvin Ingram, the fast rising Chandler Jones, Nick Perry, Courtney Upshaw, or some other d-end ahead of Coples. Or maybe PC/JS view linebacker as the greater need, and Luke Kuechly and Dont’a Hightower are guys they love. That would make sense too, but given the difficulty to find top defensive ends, and the success PC/JS had finding KJ Wright in the 4th round last year, finding a bookend pass rusher makes a ton of sense here. Or perhaps its the offense that Seattle is bound to improve at #12. Keep in mind, the Hawks defense ranked 5th in points per possession last year, while the offense ranked 27th in the same category. Awe, the intrigue of the NFL draft. Tomorrow, we finally get answers, not rumors and mockers.

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by | April 19, 2012 · 12:14 pm

Are the M’s an 80 Win Team?

The Mariners are only 13 games, or 8% into their 2012 campaign. It is hard to make many conclusions yet, other than the obvious ones like Ackley is a budding star, and Olivo should be in another profession. Again, its just too soon to guess what the remaining 92% of this year will hold. But already we are starting to see the identity of this team, the good and the bad. In short, I like what I see. I’ll take it one step further and suggest, albeit prematurely, that this could well be a team that wins 80 games, just as I had hoped when I wrote about my expectations for Year 4 of this rebuilding process.

My optimism is rooted in 3 observations.

1-The top of the order has been solid. Figgins, Ackley, and Ichiro are all stinging the ball with consistency. Hitting the ball hard does not guarantee results, but it means the batter is not being fooled, he is using is lower half to generate power, and he’s getting the barrel on the ball. I’m seeing this out of all 3 guys, which is extremely encouraging.
2-The starting pitching is just fine. All 5 guys have had at least 1 great outing, and only twice has a starter been pulled before the 5th inning. I was especially worried about the back of the rotation, and my fears still remain, but I think our 3-5 guys will be alright, at least until help arrives in the summer…Paxton! Hultzen! The exception may be Millwood, who I could see getting torched on any given day.
3-No insurmountable weaknesses. If the M’s win 80 games, it can’t have a glaring weakness. Okay, so the offensive woes we’ve watched for the past years have not been totally solved. The M’s are still 14th in average and OBP in the AL, but they are 14th in MLB for runs, and that’s what counts. The offense is still the single biggest reason why this team won’t contend for the playoffs, but when Carp returns and the weather warms up, this is a middle of the league line-up. The rotation, defense, and bullpen are also not glaring weaknesses.

Most of us would be pleased with 80 wins, maybe even ecstatic, given the 67 and 61 win Mariner teams of the past 2 seasons. Others would say 80 wins is not a playoff team, therefore not relevant. These are mainly casual fans, but their perception matters a ton to the M’s, because these are the bandwagon fans that fill Safeco when the team is winning. Side note: M’s average attendance is 22,110 according to ESPN, which ranks 28 out of 30 teams. Oakland is ahead of us, averaging 24,630 but I’m assuming that counts the Japan games which Oakland was the home team. Anyways, the point is, 80 wins does not mean you are a good team, but it also does not mean you a bad team. For me, that would be progress, and more importantly, it would keep the plan on track to contend as soon as next year. It’s always next year isn’t it?!

Finally, we can turn on ROOT each night and watch a young, promising Mariner team. This team is not build on sand like the ’08 squad, nor are they world beaters. If you ask me (and admittingly I’m a homer), they are an 80 win team on the rise. So go Enjoy Felix tonight, seriously, tickets are dirt cheap. Just bought me a seat for $20, 12 rows up behind first base. You might see me when a lefty comes to bat, I’ll be the guy drinking the Mariner Kool-Aid!

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by | April 16, 2012 · 10:21 pm

Review and Look Ahead

Last time we met, Dan was talking about how the Mariners pulled off a minor miracle in Texas.  Since then, nothing too exciting has happened.  The club did what we expected (maybe even hoped for them to do).  With that being said, I think we all have different feelings about the team right now.  I’m encouraged because the team won the games they were supposed to and that’s with the bats not being close to where they’ll finish the season (although, how many times have we said that in the last few years).  Dan is slightly happy with the team but can’t get over Miguel Olivo’s inept play.  They’re the team Matthew thought they’d be but he’s still annoyed about seeing his 3rd abysmal home opener in a row.  Joe?  He’s trying to hunt down Chuck Armstrong and make him write a letter that says if Seattle doesn’t have an NBA team within a year that he has to sell the Mariners immediately.*  So, with all of those different opinions in mind I’ll try to write a quick review of the Oakland series and a preview of the next one.

* I don’t actually know if that’s how any of them are feeling.  It is a fairly educated guess except for the part about Joe.  That’s what Joe wants to be doing, not what he is doing.

The Mariners took 2 of 3 from Oakland this weekend and won’t play them again until late June.  Some people think that’s a good thing.  It’s a good thing for entertainment reasons.  For winning purposes, this is a terrible thing.

On Friday night the M’s lost to Oakland 4-0.  I’ve heard the pre-game ceremonies were classy, as usual.  The video of the boy stealing 2nd base and finding his dad home from Afghanistan is touching and extremely well done by the organization.  Otherwise, it couldn’t have gone worse for the home team.  This is three years in a row that Seattle has played a terrible game in their home opener.  The stadium also had their debit/credit card system break down and could only accept cash for a large portion of the game.  These things happen but it was an unfortunate night for it to happen.  Otherwise, Felix looked pretty good.  His groundball rates still aren’t where they usually are but they progressed as the game went on so lets hope that trend continues.  I still think he’s perfectly fine.  The offense disappeared so there’s nothing to recap there.

On Saturday nights game, it was the Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi show.  Also, I guess it was the Michael Pineda show because without him the Mariners wouldn’t have those guys.  Maybe anytime Jesus or Hector do anything good the Mariners should flash Pineda’s picture on the big screen with the word “THANKS” written across it.  Or they could do that with the Yankee logo instead.  That’d be cool.  It could be done for all trades even.  I’d laugh, along with 3 other people in the stadium.  Anyway, Noesi pitched 8 shutout innings with 6 K’s.  When he came over, it seemed like he’d be a fastball/slider guy but it’s easy to see his 2nd best pitch is his change-up.  His fastball velocity is good and I think he’s going to be just fine after that rough, first outing in Texas.  Jesus hit his first home run as a Mariner and added a double just for kicks.  His home run was a shot to straight-away center showing off his power.  The guy can hit and he’s only going to show off more power as the year goes on.  He also looked good defensively behind the plate.

On Sunday, it was the Cliff Lee trade that paid off.  Justin Smoak homered.  Blake Beavan pitched pretty well.  John Jaso sat on the bench (he’s a product of this Lee trade if you pay close attention.  Josh Lueke for John Jaso!).  Those were the storylines but Brendan Ryan homered and Ichiro doubled home the winning run.  It’s good to see those guys do things.

So all in all, it was a successful weekend.  These are the series that the Mariners have to win and they did.  Sure, a sweep would be nice but we can’t really complain about a series win.

Some actual thoughts instead of a recap and a preview after the jump.

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by | April 12, 2012 · 9:13 am

Mariners Win in Texas, Which Does Not Usually Happen

We don’t do game recaps at the GGS Blog, because quite honestly it takes a huge committment, and when Jeff Sullivan at http://www.lookoutlanding.com writes pure gold after every Mariners game, why try to top that? But after last night’s win, I have to do a mini recap because all things considered, it may be the sweetest victory we have all year.

Entering the 8th inning, down 3-0, the Mariners win expectancy was around 8% according to gamecast. Overcoming those odds is hard enough, but to do so in Texas where you’ve won once in the past dozen games, against perhaps the best team in baseball, that win expectancy may as well been 1%. But, the M’s got a run in the 8th, and in the 9th a single by Smoak, doubles by Seager and Saunders, and finally a bloop single by Jaso after a gutsy stolen base, was the recipe for 3 runs and an improbable 4-3 win was ours after BLT shut em’ down in the 9th.

Mariners Win!

Today the Rangers and M’s meet again. Once again, Texas will have the edge in nearly every category. A win today would mean a 2-2 split and I’d probably do something drastic like buy a Figgins jersey. Either way, the M’s will finally arrive in Seattle tonight, with no worse than a 4-4 record. This is pretty great considering those 8 games were in 3 time zones, spread across 2 weeks. This team intrigues me, which I was expecting, and because it is still only April, I can’t resist thoughts of contending into the summer. I doubt this will happen, and some fans will hit the point where investing their time, money, and emotions is not worth following a .500 or below team, but I don’t see myself losing full interest, because the youth is just so dang fun to watch. This statement will upset my wife, who is way too rational to get excited about 1 game in a 162 game season. To her I say enjoy your hockey, where half the league makes the playoffs and yet they still play 82 regular season games. And then she’s like, ya well baseball is boring, and I’m like well at least its played outside! Thats typically how it goes 🙂

Lastly, there aren’t many guys on my bad list right now, although it doesn’t take much to get on it quickly. Currently, Miguel Olivo has a permanent spot reserved, Chone Figgins is working his way off it, and Brendan Ryan is somewhere in between. Steve Delabar gave up back to back jacks last night, but come on, its Delabar, you have to be cold to have him on your bad list. Back to Olivo, why is he on this team? I understand he led the team with 19 HR last year, and he has good repoire with the pitchers, but lets quickly review who Miguel Olivo is at this point. He is a 33 year old .220 hitter with zero plate discipline, bad defense, and in the final year of his contract. He’s a nice guy and all, but should he be occupying a spot on this roster, when you have Jaso, Montero, and Adam Moore that could handle the catching duties? Am I missing something? Back to the plate discipline. Since 2010, only Pablo Sandoval has a higher swing %, and only Mark Reynolds has a lower contact %. Miguel Olivo swings and misses at 20% of the pitches he sees. That leads all hitters and its not even close. Olivo strikes out in 28% of his at bats, and draws a walk 4% of the time. Both rank in the bottom 10 in baseball. Miguel Olivo, why are you on this team??!!!!

Sorry to put a stain on this post, but it felt good to express my joy in last night’s game, and also my disgust for Miguel Olivo, and this blog post is all about me and I’m a good guy and so deal with it. Enjoy the sun today and hopefully a Mariners win!

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