by | February 23, 2010 · 1:13 pm

Y2010M! Jack Wilson

It’s been a long time since Omar Vizquel was a Mariner.  Traded after the 1993 season to Cleveland, Omar was, at the time and up until a few years ago, the best defensive shortstop in baseball, the best since Ozzie Smith and on the very short list for the best in the history of baseball.  I’ll always remember a story on him, I believe in Sports Illustrated, where he and the writer played catch and Omar never once caught the ball in his glove.  With each throw, he would let the ball hit the heel of his mitt and deflect it directly into his throwing hand.  I tried this many times, with much less success.  He did things every game that no one could believe.  His bat eventually became a minor asset, but even before that, he would have started for all but a small handful of teams any given year.  After he retires in the next few years, it shouldn’t be long before he’s in the hall of fame.

Yuniesky Betancourt at first showed similar glove skills to Vizquel, and looked like he would hit more as well.  And everyone knows what happened from there.  He got slow, or fat or lazy or some combination thereof, started making lazy throwing mistakes, and deteriorated with the bat.  His 2009 line in 60ish games before being traded: .250/.278/.330.  No one was sad to see him go.

Jack Wilson came to the Mariners in July 2009 and promptly went on the disabled list for the rest of the year.  In the 30 or so games he played, he looked Yuni-ish with the bat and Omar-like with the glove, and that’s about what we should expect this year.  When on the field, Wilson is probably the top defensive shortstop in baseball, or close to it.  Acrobatic but steady, he’ll be a joy to watch, as long as he can stay on the field.  With the bat, I think the best we could really hope for is something like .265/.325/.400, and that’s probably best case scenario, except for maybe the batting average.

So why am I happy he’s on the team?  For one, there are no other options.  Shortstops are at a premium in baseball right now.  The team surely searched hard for a replacement, and the extension Wilson signed shows how few options there are.  When Jack Wilson can get 2 years and $10 million, it’s clear the days of an A-Rod, Jeter, or Garciaparra arriving seemingly every year have ended.  Those three skewed our view of shortstops significantly.  It used to be a shortstop was the heart of the defense, stopping everything within 50 feet of him, and any offense he provided was a bonus.  This formula worked for years.  Those of us who grew up with the A-Rod generation expect our shortstops to hit like MVPs and still win Gold Gloves, and it’s just not going to happen much.  On a potentially offense-starved team like the Mariners, it’s hard seeing a regular who offers so little with the bat.  Shortstop is the one position, though, where if I can’t have Hanley Ramirez, I would much rather take Jack Wilson over a guy who hits more but defends less.  He’ll make Jose Lopez look better, he’ll make the pitchers look better, and he’ll captain the defense like Adrian Beltre did the last few years.  As long as he can stay on the field fairly regularly, Jack Wilson is the least of the Mariners’ problems and one the better reasons to watch them play.

-Matthew

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by | February 22, 2010 · 8:55 pm

Does Cliff Lee Make the Mariners Better?

Spring training is kicking off throughout baseball, which means most rosters are just about set and the focus turns to trying to decide how teams look going into the season.  Projecting the Mariners this season is difficult.  Most agree they’re a solid team, with projections ranging anywhere from 82-88 or so wins, but they have several players who could  surprise, both positively or negatively.   I’ll try to cover most of the major areas of interest throughout the spring, and today we’ll start with a discussion that’s been making the rounds lately.

No one (at least I hope no one) will say that Cliff Lee isn’t a significantly better pitcher than Jarrod Washburn.  Even during Washburn’s time in Seattle last year, when he threw probably better than at any other point in his career, I doubt there is a single baseball fan, player, or executive who wouldn’t have traded him for Cliff Lee at any point.  Even still, there is an argument being made that we can’t project the Mariners to have a better record this year due to Lee’s presence.  The argument goes like this: Washburn made 20 starts for the Mariners before they traded him, and in 11 of those starts, he gave up one run or less, running an ERA of 2.64.  Many analysts are making the claim that Cliff Lee can’t really be expected to top that performance, therefore Cliff Lee is only replacing Jarrod Washburn and doesn’t do much, if anything, to boost the Mariners’ projected win total past last years 85 wins.

At first glance, it’s a compelling argument.  Washburn did pitch well, or at least got good results.  But there are some flaws here:

  • First, as the sabermetric analysts have pointed out, projecting a team based on last year’s results can be tricky and even foolhardy.  The rest of the team is greatly changed, which will change the results the pitchers have.  Cliff Lee pitched on a different team (two, actually) and his results from last year can’t just be transposed onto the Mariners.  Lookout Landing and USSMariner have both touched on this recently, so you can check out their arguments. They know a lot more about this than I do.  Suffice to say, projections have a better chance of accuracy when done afresh each season rather than juggling players on and off of last year’s team.
  • Ultimately, we’re talking about how many wins Cliff Lee can impact.  Not every good performance from a pitcher results in a team win, or a bad performance in a team loss, so how did the team do in Washburn’s starts last year? The team was 11-9, about the same winning percentage as they had for the year. In those 11 games where he gave up 1 run or less: 7-4, good but not amazing.  If the team had won 15 or 16 of those 20 games, I’m not sure how you could expect more in Lee’s first 20 starts. But 11 wins seems eminently passable.
  • Speaking of those 20 starts, they were only 20 starts.  Barring major injury, the only way Lee doesn’t get to at least 30 starts is if he too is traded, which means the team is out of contention and none of this matters anyway.

There are other factors as well, such as a possible psychological lift for the team knowing they have Cliff Lee throwing, that aren’t necessarily measurable when projecting a win total.  I won’t try my hand at projecting either; there are plenty of projections out there and mine would be a total guess.  I feel fairly confident though, that even with Washburn’s mostly good results last season, Cliff Lee has to add at least a couple of wins to this team, not to mention a lot of swagger and a much more enjoyable pitcher to watch.  Interestingly, this is an instance where analysts who typically argue that numbers don’t capture the whole picture are implicitly turning to numbers for support, and the numbers aren’t there to back them up.

-Matthew

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by | February 21, 2010 · 3:39 pm

Another Duck Down

Wide receiver Jamere Holland has been kicked off the Oregon Ducks because of a regretful facebook post.  http://deadspin.com/5476701/oregon-pretty-much-imploding-before-our-very-eyes.  How dumb can you be?  I really don’t know what to say anymore.  Really, I’ve sat here for like 10 minutes trying to think of my next sentence but I’m in shock.  Umm…. Go Dawgs!  http://www.ducksportsnews.com/blog/2010/02/jamere-holland-dismissed-from-ducks-football-program/

Update: Here’s another fun link on this story http://bustersports.com/blog/buster-blog/2010/02/21/pac-10-oregons-jamere-holland-has-a-lot-of-growing-up-to-do/

Update #2: This is too much fun! Another good article.  http://www.oregonlive.com/sports/oregonian/john_canzano/index.ssf/2010/02/canzano_even_after_dumping_jam.html

Andrew

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by | February 21, 2010 · 12:16 am

Thank You Quincy

CLIFF DESPEAUX / THE SEATTLE TIMES

I just want to give a big shout out to the man of the night, Quincy Pondexter. Senior night, and he came out and dominated UCLA. I am happy to see him go out with a win, especially against the smug punks from Westwood. The Huskies played unbelievable, yet again showing they are the premier Jeckyl and Hyde team in the nation. I still maintain they win the next three on the road, but at this point what is the use in trying to predict anything in the Pac-10…

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by | February 20, 2010 · 4:01 pm

More Duck Trouble

Reserve Oregon linebacker Kiko Alonso was picked up at 2:19 a.m. Saturday morning cited for DUII.  This was literally hours after coach, Chip Kelly, met with the media about Oregon’s off the field problems.  This is getting really ridiculous.

http://blog.oregonlive.com/behindducksbeat/2010/02/oregon_football_kiko_alonso_ci.html

Andrew

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by | February 20, 2010 · 3:18 pm

Jake Locker: Football Player or Superhero?

On December 5th, 2009 the Husky offense was on the field in the 4th quarter.  They had dominated a quality opponent, California, in a way that they hadn’t since 2003.  With Jake Locker on the field one last time the chant “one more year!” rained down from the 65,000 in attendance.  Locker waved his arms in what many assumed was an attempt to quiet the crowd.  The common thought is he wanted his offensive line to be able to hear the snap count.  But I don’t think this flapping of his arms has been analyzed enough.  On that fateful day in December maybe Jake discovered something more than an intense desire to come back to U-Dub for one more year, maybe he discovered that he could fly.

Of course Montlake Jake denied any thought of his new ability to fly, but he’s a humble kid and telling people this would put even more attention on him.  Below are reasons why Jake may or may not be a Superhero.

Why Jake might just be a simple football player:

  • His overall record.  Although I believe the Huskies will have a successful year this year, Jake’s career college record is 8-18.  If he was a superhero how could he let his team lose so much?  Well, every superhero has a kryptonite.  Jake’s was the villain Tyrone Willingham.  Ty zapped some of our stars powers right out from under him and made such an impact that it caused Locker to feel a few after effects this year.
  • His injuries.  Since becoming a starter in 2007, Jake has missed a total of 10 games due to injury.  Would a superhero really get hurt and miss that much time at the expense of his team’s record?  There are two answers to that.  The kryptonite, Ty, was at his work again.  Putting Jake into impossible situations like being a lead blocker and taking hits every play.  Even Batman couldn’t take that many hits.  The other answer is Locker doesn’t want people to know his true identity.  By getting injured, it keeps questions of his super-human ability away and keeps the NCAA from investigating.  I wonder if the crime-rate in Seattle went up well he was injured?
  • Jake doesn’t wear a mask or a cape.  Okay, you got me here.  Most superheroes wear masks and capes, Jake doesn’t.  But he does wear a helmet.

Why Jake might be a superhero:

  • His speed.  When Locker gets in the open field, he is comparable to The Flash.  This is evidenced by many runs,  his 59-yard touchdown run against Arizona this year and the first time he took off up the field against Syracuse in 2007 come to mind.  He might even be holding back on his speed, ask the criminals who roam the Seattle streets at night.
  • His strength.  I only need to use one example to prove my point here.  In the closing seconds against BYU in 2008 the Huskies were down by a touchdown.  Jake had the ball at the three yard-line and scrambled to his left.  Locker broke 3 tackles as he barreled his way into the end-zone.  After scoring, Locker meant to toss the ball a few feet in the air as he jumped into his teammates arms.  But Jake got caught up in the moment and forgot about his own strength.  The ball went sailing 20-30 feet in the air and the pac-10 refs (boo!) called a penalty.  Locker is lucky much of the blame went on the officials because if it hadn’t Jake’s superhuman strength would’ve been further noticed.
  • His presence.  There’s a feeling of hope when Spiderman is soaring above the streets in New York City.  The same is true at Husky Stadium.  From the moment Jake got to Montlake, players have raved about his on and off the field presence.  And when he’s on the field there’s that feeling of hope that is comparable to that of a superhero flying above the city.

The consensus is still out on whether Locker is a simple football player or a stealthy superhero.  No one on the Huskies offense confessed that they saw him levitating in the 4th quarter against Cal, although I bet they did.  We’ll know more come next December.  But I’m looking forward to another year of evidence that number 10 should be wearing a cape and a mask.

Andrew

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by | February 19, 2010 · 4:25 pm

Some Non-Depressing Friday Thoughts

(I had no idea me and Joe had just about the same ideas for a post until I put this up.  Thankfully we covered some different things but sorry that it’s the same idea!)

At about 9:20 last night I was sitting in my car, shivering and listening to the Husky game on the radio (all the TV’s were taken at school).  In between yelling at the radio and fist pumps I started thinking about my blog post for today.  I was fully prepared to recount one of the most exciting comebacks in Husky history.  Ready to talk about Quincy Pondexter’s buzzer beater for a one point Husky win.  Ready to talk about how this comeback victory could give the Huskies the steam they needed for the rest of the season.  I left my car 15 minutes later disappointed and exhausted.  The dawgs didn’t win.  So, after that devastating loss and a ho-hum week I don’t want to recap that game.  As my good friend R. Kelly wisely said, “It’s the freackin’ weekend baby, I’m about to have me some fun.”  So lets start this weekend off with some happy thoughts!

  • The talks continue this week about the expansion of the pac-10.  There have been several good articles lately that have advocated that instead of expanding to 12 teams the pac should go to 16.  In my opinion, this makes sense.  If the conference simply expands to 12 teams with the addition of Colorado and Utah I question that they’re mainly adding to the quantity of the conference instead of the quality.  But if an expansion to 16 teams happened, the possibility of adding a powerhouse such as Texas grows significantly.  Why would a team like Texas go to the pac-10?  Mainly for research and academic reasons but lets take a look at an interesting scenario.  The Big-10 is looking to expand to 16 teams with teams like Missouri and Pittsburg.  If this happened they would leave most other conferences in the dust in terms of prestige and revenue.  To keep up with them the Pac-10  might need the state of Texas.  If the Longhorns were to come that means that Texas A&M would most likely have to come.  And then Texas legislation may not want these two schools to jump ship without Baylor and Texas Tech.  Add these 4 schools plus Colorado and Utah and this has turned into our 16-team super conference.  This would not only increase the quantity of the conference but also the quality.  Do I think this is likely? No, not really.  But I think it makes more sense than adding 2 teams that would barely help the perception of the Pac-10.  If the Big-10 expands the dominoes would start to fall.  Then it will be a battle between the Big-12 and Pac-10 to stay relevant.  I like the Pac-10’s chances in that scenario. (I don’t know if this makes any sense to anyone else or if you find this interesting, but it was somewhat intriguing to me so I thought I’d share.)
  • Ken Griffey Jr. arrived in Peoria today.  Geoff Baker reported that he was seen talking to Cliff Lee.  When Lee was first traded here it was apparent that he’d rather be in Philly and who could blame him.  But there’s nothing like a little talk with a future hall-of-famer to make you feel more at home.  I can just picture Jr. and Lee sitting at a table sharing stories and having a laugh.  That thought really makes me smile.
  • Danielle Lawrie picked up her 100th career victory this week.  The softball team is 6-1 and the good guys’ favorite

    Hooch

    Husky female athlete, Hooch Fagaly continues to have success.

  • Rob Johnson is the Mariners catcher.  Sorry I forgot this was supposed to be cheerful.
  • Chip Kelly held a press conference today that addressed the teams off-field issues.  He had some interesting quotes.  “I always believe discipline is improving behavior.”  Obviously you don’t use discipline Chip.  He also said, “There can’t be a rush to judgement” and “I’ll wait for some of these to play out in a court of law.”  Looking at this from my biased opinion it feels like he’s saying, “Lets see if these things will blow over.”  And finally he said, “We don’t accept this and won’t accept this.”  That sounds great but how will you un-accept it? I’m just a little confused….
  • 39 days until Husky spring practice starts.  69 days until the Husky spring game.  And 196 days until I’m in Provo watching the Dawgs!  Football and baseball are on the horizon!

Thanks for reading this very random post!

Andrew

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by | February 19, 2010 · 3:46 pm

Cheer Up!!!

No use in rehashing last nights meat grinder of a game at HecEd. Let’s focus on the positive, the good juju in Seattle sports. It’s sunny out, WHY NOT!

Jake Locker is coming back this fall. Let’s not forget that Husky fans. I’ve got a purple kool-aid keg in my garage at the ready for Labor Day weekend. BYU is toast.

Come September, this guy will be running WILD!!!

Ken Griffey Jr has arrived at Spring Training is is already holding court in the locker room. I heard he was doing P90 in the offseason, dropped seven pounds and is in great shape for a guy his age. Add to that Ichiro arriving soon, along with Mike Sweeney? Can there BE any more Sodo Mojo love in the desert? Don’t think so…

The Seahawks have two first round picks. They have holes at literally every position. Hence, they will more than likely draft two guys who will play right away. Sounds good to me, let’s just hope they go best available. I like what I am hearing from Schneider and Carroll. Sign me up, I’m buying.

Have an awesome weekend!

Joe

PS – These video highlights make me quite happy and full of joy. I hope you feel the same.


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