by | February 27, 2010 · 3:22 pm

Huskies vs. Cougars Prediction

I thought this would be a worth a try, we’re going to have a little prediction thread for the game tonight.  If this works we can do it before more games.  So, leave your prediction of the game tonight below in the comments section.

My prediction?  Sadly, my prediction is WSU 72-68.  I feel awful for predicting this but for some reason I just don’t see the dawgs winning this game.  Maybe because it’s another road game, maybe it’s because I lost some hope after the USC loss but this may be a nail biter.  I see Klay finally going off and scoring in the 20’s and Casto shutting down MBA’s improved post play.  Quincy will show up, like he always does but I don’t think it’s enough to beat the Cougs’ in their home finale.  I hope I’m wrong!

Post your predictions below! Go Dawgs!

Andrew

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by | February 27, 2010 · 2:28 pm

Can You Win Me a Pennant?

I frequently read a Mariners blog called Seattle Sports Insider whose primary author likes to ask a simple question when talking about building a roster: Can I win my next pennant with this player?  It’s really the only question that matters.  It’s also fairly subjective.  Two intelligent people can always disagree about how good a player is or will become, and different people have different ideas on how to put together a team.  Still, I thought I’d run through the Mariners’ roster and give my opinions on where they stand here.  I’ll cover what I expect the 25 man roster to be, along with a few players who might figure prominently in the near future.

Position Players

C Rob Johnson- Yes as a backup.  No as a starter without an incredible amount of improvement.

C Adam Moore- Yes. Here’s where it get tricky.  Some people might always answer no to all prospects.  I’m looking at what we can reasonably expect them to develop into.  If the M’s next pennant is this year, he might be a weak link; in the future, I think he’ll be a solid starter. Continue reading →

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by | February 26, 2010 · 5:43 pm

Husky Football Position Overviews

(Dang it, I just covered up Matthew’s post without realizing it.  Read it below, it’s much better than this!)

Over the next month I will be going over each position.  This will all lead up to Husky spring practices.  I will include the incoming freshman and who I think will be starters at each position.  Much like the Y2010M!, we’ll make a separate category for this and feel free to add comments and questions.  I imagine Condotta of the Seattle Times will be doing something similar to this but hopefully this will be interesting and informative.  We’ll start with quarterback sometime this weekend!  Thanks for reading!

Andrew

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by | February 26, 2010 · 5:35 pm

Y2010M! Dustin Ackley

I was looking through Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects list the other day, and sitting at #11 was one Seattle Mariner, Mr. Dustin Ackley.  Number 11 is the highest I remember seeing a Mariner since probably Felix, but truth be told, I was hoping he’d be even a little higher.  The reason for my optimism: Ackley’s hitting, which I had heard the BA guys discuss beforehand on a podcast.  Ackley was their choice for college player of the decade and is touted as maybe the purest hitter to come out of college in quite some time.

For those unfamiliar with baseball scouting, skills are assigned a rating from 20-80, 80 being the top.  I have no idea where they came up with that range.  Skills that are generally rated: hitting (meaning for average), power, speed, defense, arm.  Those are the famous five tools that athletic young Venezuelan outfielders seem to unanimously possess.  Pitchers work a little differently, with grades for individual pitches along with some other areas.  A 50, as you might guess, is considered average.  A player with all 50s is likely a serviceable starter, maybe a utility guy.  As a tool gets closer to 65 or so, a player would approach all-star level, at least with that one tool. The more above average tools, the better.  Some tools stand on their own better while others are more dependent on another tool to help them shine.  80 power with 20 hitting isn’t going to do much, since power needs contact to be effective.  Similarly, 80 speed makes nothing more than a good pinch-runner, if he can’t get on base or catch anything.

BA gave a grade for each player’s best tool in the Top 100 list.  These grades came from the writers’ scouting but was heavily influenced by scouts and coaches they talked to.  There were a handful of 80s awarded, but only two for hitting.  The first was to the player in the #1 slot, Braves mega-prospect Jason Heyward.  The other? Dustin Ackley.  An 80 hit grade for a Mariner prospect is a beautiful number.  There aren’t many players at that level in all of baseball at any time.  We just counted only two in the minors.  The Mariners happen to have another in Ichiro.  You’d add Pujols, Mauer, and maybe a few more:  A-Rod, undoubtedly a few others I’m not thinking of.  The point is, if a player gets an 80 hit grade, scouts see potential batting titles and line-up anchors. An 80 hitter has an elite ability to make contact and translate that contact into production.

Does this mean Ackley, the number two overall pick last year, is destined for MVP awards and the hall of fame?  Certainly not.  Plenty of elite prospects never reach their full potential.  Ackley in particular has concerns about whether he can hit the ball hard enough to be a star, although 22 home runs and a .763 slugging percentage his last year of college, along with a frame that looks like it could add some weight and muscle, seem to indicate at least some power potential.  Some pessimists see Jeremy Reed, a great college and minor league hitter who couldn’t quite cut it in the bigs.  I’m not buying it and think Ackley is on a different level than Reed ever was, but that type of career is possible.  He also grades as a 65 or 70 for speed and is athletic enough to likely end up at second or centerfield, positions where a left handed .330 hitter becomes one of the top players in the league, no matter how much power he has.  By all accounts, Ackley is an extremely hard worker, has great baseball instincts, and an all-around Good Guy (kind of like some other people I know!).

What really excites me about Dustin Ackley is the potential for the Mariners to finally have one of those players who rockets through the minors, comes to the big leagues sooner than expected, and takes the league by storm.  It seems like it’s been years since they’ve had a minor league hitter come up and not struggle in his initial time in the majors.  Ackley is likely to start his first full professional season at AA, maybe AAA if he really impresses this spring, and I think the team would tell you they expect him to be in the bigs in 2011 or later.  I, and I think Mariners’ management, wouldn’t be at all surprised if he comes up not long after the all star break and is one of the Mariners best hitters the rest of the year.  I’m a big fan of having an elite skill in sports (not that I’m unique in this preference).  A player with 55 tools across the board can fill a hole and help a team, but an 80 hitter is someone who can carry you to a pennant.  I haven’t been so excited to see a Mariner minor league hitter reach the majors in a long, long time.

-Matthew

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by | February 25, 2010 · 3:55 pm

USA v Finland – Quick Thoughts

First off, I really love to watch high level hockey, so these Olympics have been exciting to watch. I mean, I watched Sweden v. Slovakia and Finland v. Czech last night via the computer just because I love the sport. Do I have a life? Yes, it’s just that sometimes you gotta do your homework to know what the heck you are talking about.

The US will face Finland tomorrow at high noon in Vancouver for the right to play for the gold Sunday afternoon, and most likely face home-country favs Canada. I like Team USA here. Finland has two stud goalies in Kiprusoff and Backstrom, and some solid forwards (Selanne, Jokinen and the Koivus), but the Americans bring the toughness to the ice, and I think they can get a lead and sit on it. In last nights game with Czech, Finland looked very sluggish offensively. There was no explosion to the net, and their one legit goal was a fluky one in which one of the Czech defenders lost his helmet, (according to Olympic rules requires him to immediately go fetch it) thus he vacated his post covering his goalies blind right side. Finland threw something on net and it went in. I was actually not impressed with Finland all that much. Kiprusoff was solid, as usual. He is one of the better goalies in the world, so I expect him to carry Finland. If they have any shot at beating the Americans, he will have to be a wall.

For the Americans, they must stay aggressive in the offensive zone. They literally controlled the entire game verses Switzerland. The Swiss really had no shot once Team USA scored. Bobby Ryan and David Backes have been solid on defense, while Parise and Rafalski continue to provide pressure on offense. I was impressed with the Americans ability to change tactics throughout the game verses the Swiss. Switzerland was really locking this down on defense, so the Americans had to adjust their strategy, and it worked. They wore Switzerland down. A one goal lead was all they needed.

In the end, I see Team USA winning this game. They know what is on the line. They have grinded and fought to get where they are today, so I expect them to bring their A-game and defeat the Fins. The game will be close because Kiprusoff will keep it that way, but I think the Americans strike first, and then apply pressure the rest of the game, forcing the Fins to make mistakes along the way.

I am sensing an historic USA vs Canada match-up Sunday for the gold…

Joe

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by | February 24, 2010 · 2:58 pm

Interesting Chip Kelly Interview

This has been linked at several blogs and websites but I thought this was interesting.  Chip Kelly sounds very defensive and angry.  Enjoy!

http://www.955thegame.com/95-5-Game-Special—Kelly-Vs–Canzano/6428097

Andrew

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by | February 24, 2010 · 2:09 pm

Y2010M! Casey Kotchman

About a week ago I was hanging out with Dan.  I can’t remember exactly what we were watching but the show started showing highlights of a bunch of first basemen making errors.  Defense at first base is something that is often overlooked, but why?  In today’s baseball world, and even in the generations before us, first base is a position that is used to upgrade offense.  If a guy can hit 40 home runs that would make up for a lack of defensive range at first base.  With this in mind I thought the Mariners would try to acquire a first basemen that would upgrade our offense a couple of notches.  But that didn’t happen, our front office stayed true to their “defense first” mentality.  Ladies and gentleman, I give you Casey Kotchman.

In 2001 Kotchman was selected 13th overall in the Major League Baseball draft by the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.  He breezed through the Angels farm system and made his major league debut in 2005 as one of the top prospects in the game.  Kotchman went through several injury plagued years but played fairly well in 2007 and 2008.  He was traded to Atlanta at the trade deadline in ’08 and his production fell off as he was dealing with some family issues.  Kotchman was again traded from Atlanta to Boston in 2009.  What was once a very good prospect looked like he’d forgotten how to hit, especially how to hit lefties.  2009 wasn’t his best year, as he posted an OPS of .721 which is somewhat underwhelming for a first basemen.  Through his offensive struggles Kotchman was still seen as one of the best defensive first basemen in baseball.

This offseason he was traded from Boston to Seattle for Bill Hall.  This was an upgrade for the M’s because not many people wanted Mike Carp to be our starting first baseman.  I’ll be the first to admit I was hoping for a little something more at first base initially but the more I think about it the more I like this move.  Kotchman is low-risk, high upside move (meaning he doesn’t cost a lot and has good amount of potential).  His 7.6 UZR rating last year was among the top first basemen in the league.  His range at first base will help make up for Jose Lopez’s lack of range at second base.  And what about his offense?  Who knows, Kotchman might surprise us.  He’s a gap hitter with good plate discipline.  Maybe he’ll rediscover his approach that made him successful in 2007.  If he does, he’ll hit around .300 with and on-base percentage around .370.  If not, he’ll hit around .270 with and on-base percentage around .330.  If the latter happens, he’ll be Ryan Garko’s platoon partner at first base.  Kotchman has had pretty dramatic splits against right and left-handed pitchers the last few years.  Thus, he may play against right-handed pitching while Garko plays against southpaws. 

Truth is, I have no idea what to expect from Kotchman’s offense.  Hopefully he surprises us, much like Gutierrez did last year.  If not, we’ve seen the power of defense.  While a home run may be sexy, a defensive play to stop a run from scoring is worth exactly the same in the long run.  I’m excited to see what Casey will do this year and am fairly optimistic about his performance.  The power of defense is alive and well in Seattle and Kotchman will just add to the best defense in the league.  Lets remember the most remembered error of all time came from a first baseman (Bill Buckner), Kotchman hasn’t made an error in 185 games.

(This doesn’t mean I’m against an Adrian Gonzalez trade at all!)

Andrew

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by | February 23, 2010 · 7:59 pm

Team Chemistry, Milton Bradley and Respect

I’ve never been a big believer in team chemistry.  I think it’s important that teammates respect each other and play hard no matter who the guy standing next to him is but I’ve never thought that liking your teammate would make a huge difference in the win/loss column.  In my mind, talent outweighs chemistry like Carlos Silva outweighs Ichiro.  But the Mariners have changed my mind, at least somewhat.

In 2008 the Mariners were a disaster on and off the field.  Maybe the off the field problems were caused by the on-field problems but we’ll never know for sure.  That team limped to a 61-101 record.  The team had absolutely no fun and the fans had no fun watching them.  In 2009, with the addition and subtraction of some players, the Mariners increased their win total by 24.  Obviously they had upgraded on talent; who would say that Franklin Gutierrez isn’t better than J.J. Putz?  But were the additions the team made really worth a 24 win upgrade based on talent alone?  No way.  There are several explanations for this dramatic upgrade.  Should the 2008 team really have lost that many games based on the product that management put on the field?  No but Bill Bavasi didn’t think about things like Jack Z does.  He didn’t think about chemistry.

While last years team was a better product than the 2008 team, they also had a different mindset.  With the leadership of Jr., Sweeney, and of course Wak, the team demanded respect for each other.  There was no more Carlos Silva calling out Ichiro, no more Miguel Batista acting like a moron (well maybe…), no more “every man for himself” attitude.  When a team has a hall-of-famer like Griffey come into the clubhouse and show respect to everyone, even the rookies, the team envelops that attitude.  With that respect comes a feeling of “I need to get my job done because I know my teammates are expecting that of me.”  And once a team comes to that attitude the fun can begin.  Last year the Mariners might have been the most “fun” team I’ve ever seen.  Sure, they didn’t win their division but they laughed, tickled, and shaving-cream pied their way to 85 wins.  They were built on the attitude that management had installed and the chemistry they had got them extra victories. 

Now comes this year with a new challenge.  A one-man wrecking ball coming from Chicago named Milton Bradley.  Bradley has definitely had his share of bad moments.  He was a nightmare with the Cubs last year; a clubhouse cancer that supposedly dragged everyone down with him.  So why did the Mariners get him?  A couple reasons.  One, he was traded for Carlos Silva.  I would’ve traded Carlos Silva for a dead guy (seriously).  Two, the guy can hit.  In 2008, Bradley led the American League in on-base percentage and OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage).  Bradley could be a big addition to the Mariners somewhat weak lineup.  But is he worth the risk of ruining the great chemistry the Mariners have?  Call me crazy, but I don’t see it as that big of a risk.  Bradley continues to mention how great it will be to play alongside one of his heroes, Ken Griffey Jr.  With Jr. as a leader of the clubhouse and already having the respect of Bradley, I think Bradley will fit in just fine.  Milton said yesterday that for the first time in his career he’s looking to have fun this year.  You sir, have come to the right place.  A parade around the field after an 85 win season means that we’ve got one happy baseball team.  Bradley will have his blow ups but I think this team can handle it because of the respect each player is given. 

Last month Matthew and I went to hear Jack Z talk at the USSM/LL event.  He said many insightful things but the main thing I took from it was when he touched on the subject of respect.  He said it was important to remember that these players are human, and for the most part they’re all trying their best.  Just like you should respect your peers, you should respect these players lives.  It was the cliche’ speech that famous people give but this time it wasn’t cliche’, it was fresh and sincere.  He treated a bunch of nerdy fans and bloggers the way humans are supposed to treat each other.  He never spoke poorly of anyone, even Carlos Silva.  He showed respect to all people.  This is the kind of attitude the Mariners have now and the kind of attitude the Mariners will have regardless of Milton Bradley being on the team or not.

Andrew

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