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Y2012M!

Last March, Matthew started a series called “Y2010M!” (standing for Your 2010 Mariners).  It provided the reader with information on players from the 2010 Mariners.  It seemed like a logical thing to do at the time.  The Mariners were supposed to be good, and there was more optimism in Seattle than there had been in quite a while.  This season didn’t work out though.  Frankly, Y2010M’s suck.  In fact, you probably don’t want to call them yours.  I don’t want to call them mine.  While next season will certainly be a little better, it can’t get much worse, it isn’t something that we should be extremely excited about.  Playoff chances will be slim and the casual fan probably won’t enjoy watching as the young players progress next season.  On the plus side, the Mariners could have about 3 legitimate candidates for Rookie of the Year.  Because of that reason, I am led to 2012.  The Mayan’s aren’t the only ones predicting big things that year.  Unlike the Bavasi years, there is actually hope in the future now.  Z has put good prospects in the system and the future looks much brighter than it did when he took over.  Yes, I know the future doesn’t make the present any more bearable, but at least there’s some hope.  So, lets take a way too early look at your 2012 Mariners.

Starting Rotation
The starting rotation is the place where we know the least about so I’ll start there.  Obviously, you have Felix as your ace.  I don’t need to say anything about him because he’s awesome and everyone should know it.  Then, almost as certain, we have Mr. Pineda.  Pineda is a top 3 prospect in the Mariners system and is a top 30 prospect in baseball.  He is better than everyone in Seattle’s rotation right now, aside from Felix.  No one’s a safe bet, but Pineda is about as close as they come.  He is one of those rookie of the year candidates.

After Pineda, it gets a little blurry.  There’s Vargas and Fister, who are very solid back of the rotation guys.  I think Vargas stands a better chance to still be around in there just because he has better pitches.  That’s not to say Fister isn’t capable.  He could be a very good 5th starter.  That leaves the 2nd, 3rd, and/or 4th spot in the rotation open (assuming Felix is the ace, Pineda is either the 2nd or 3rd starter, Vargas at 4th or 5th, and Fister maybe at the 5th spot).  So, who will fill either one or two spots?  I wouldn’t be surprised to see an innings eater (like a Kevin Millwood) added via free agency.  But, there are several options in the system.

Ryan Rowland-Smith has been much better in Tacoma lately but I wouldn’t count on him.  Same goes for Luke French.  There’s Mauricio Robles, who has more upside than both of those guys but has a longer way to come.  Robles was acquired in the Washburn trade and has the upside of a 3 starter.  He’s a short little guy who throws pretty hard and is left-handed.  He has high strikeout rates but also has high walk rates.  If he can learn to control his stuff, I think he’ll be in the rotation at some point.  If not, he may be moved to the bullpen.  Nick Hill was once highly thought of but he’s struggled this year.  There are also this years draftees but counting on the starters by 2012 isn’t a very good bet.

The 2012 rotation will depend on the emergence of Pineda and the ability to sign or trade for a veteran.  If Pineda is as good as we think, the rotation could be quite good.

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The Rebuilding Process, Years 1 & 2

    Year One

Following the disastrous 2008 season, the Mariners blew up the team, hired a new general manager, and eventually a new manager as well. Seattle was officially entering into a commonly used sports cliché, “rebuilding mode.” Jack Zduriencik wasted no time cutting bad contracts, bad draft picks, and basically any dead weight that Bill Bavasi had left behind. Entering the 2009 season, expectations were low, but excitement was building thanks to a new fresh regime. Last year’s team overachieved by most standards, thanks to a terrific record in close games, a reinvigorated team chemistry, and numerous players having career years. Needless to say, the Mariners seemed way ahead of schedule, finishing with an impressive 85-77 record. It felt like the rebuilding process might have come and gone in just 1 year.

    Year Two

Jack Zduriencik followed up the ’09 campaign by shedding the rest of the dead weight, and with new money to spend, Seattle acquired Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins, Milton Bradley, and a couple other role players. A year after expectations were low and playoff talk was not even on the radar, suddenly the 2010 season began with renewed hope and fans were encouraged to “Believe Big.” We all know how this year has unfolded. The close game fortune from last year is gone, the Griffey reunion lasted a year too long, and instead of career bests from numerous players, we are witnessing career worst performances by many. The rebuilding process we had hoped might last just 1 year is still in process. For a moment, Zduriencik saw a shortcut out of rebuild mode, but that crack was quickly closed. It was a risk worth taking, because legitimate shots at the playoffs don’t come often. A failed attempt, such as what we are seeing unfold, is upsetting, but probably won’t set the team back much. Cliff Lee is sure to be traded shortly, and the package Zduriencik gets in return will likely outweigh the 3 prospects that Seattle sent to the Phillies for Lee, and once the 2010 season is buried, Zduriencik will continue to build.

The bad contracts have been shed, the foundation has been laid, and despite this lost, tumultuous, depressing season, the Mariners are probably still on track to accomplish the long term goals that were set back in November, 2008. The high expectations heading into 2010 can easily distract us from the big picture, and while there is a lot to be frustrated about at the current moment, when looking at the full view, it’s really not that bad given where this team was just 2 years ago.

-Dan

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The Worst Case Scenario? Pretty Close…

Following the ridiculous 6-5 loss to Baltimore on Thursday, I was listening to Brock and Salk on 710 ESPN, and Dave Cameron from USSM was on the show. Cameron said the pre-season likelihood that the M’s would have finished the first 34 games at 13-21, would have been about 7-10%. This number is not a scientific fact, but anyone who knows a thing about baseball can look at the roster Seattle assembled, paired with the weak division they play in, and conclude that a 13-21 start would have been tough to imagine. Is this the worst case scenario? Well, of course it’s not the absolute worst case. That would be a winless team with multiple injured starters, a manager soon to be fired, and a clubhouse that is fist fighting. But this is pretty close to the worst possible scenario I could have thought up back in March. Here are 5 reasons why the M’s are where they are. (And sorry, this gets a little lengthy)

1) Bad luck (aka sucking in crunch time)
Last year, the M’s made hay in 1-run games. Despite giving up more runs than they scored, the M’s won 85 games, which by most standards, was an anomaly. The odd that Seattle could have racked up 85 W’s last year was slim when the year began. It was a pleasure seeing my team hang on in close games and show grit time and time again. This year, the Gods have not been so kind in similar games. In fact, in 9 of Seattle’s 21 losses, the M’s either led or were tied going into the eighth inning. That is a staggering result. If the Mariners could have won even just 4 of those 9 games, we would be talking about a 17-17 team heading into the Tampa series. The worst part is that in most cases, one minor miscue has been the difference between a win and a loss. The Byrnes whiffed bunt. The Johnson passed balls. The poor execution of bases loaded in extra innings. Those are the type of missed opportunities that has defined this team through 35 games. If you care to look at just how those 9 gut wrenching games played out, take a look at the quick summaries Shannon Drayer put together-http://www.mynorthwest.com/category/mariners_blog_articles/20100513/Too-Many-Tough-Losses

2) Slow start offense
In addition to the close losses, the Mariners are not hitting. Figgins, Kotchman, Griffey, Lopez, Bradley, Moore, Johnson and Jack Wilson are all off to slow starts. Typically you assume a few regulars will start slow, but it’s hard to win when all but 2 starters are hitting around .200 or lower. The offense is without a doubt the biggest reason the M’s are sitting where they are.

3) The Bullpen
The Mariners have a solid bullpen. I’d bet as many as 4 of our relievers could be closers on some major league teams. But despite good overall stats, some untimely blow ups have resulted in numerous losses. Lowe, League and Aardsma have combined to give up 6 home runs. That’s not the astounding number though, as 6 home runs between 3 relievers in mid-May is not unreasonable. What is astounding is that all 6 of those home runs were either game tiers or game winners, and all came in the 8th or 9th innings. Ouch. Often times home runs are not all the pitchers fault, because even perfectly executed pitches can be hit 400 feet by major league hitters. A lot of the bullpen’s failures are just plain bad luck. That’s just baseball. The bullpen is not a major concern for this team.

4) Off the field issues
The Bradley fiasco and the Griffey nap have been the two biggest off the field incidents thus far. The Milton thing was almost to be expected, considering his past, while the Griffey thing has snowballed from a minor issue to headlines on ESPN. That whole thing is just weird. You could include injuries in this category I suppose, to Cliff Lee, Mark Lowe, and Jack Wilson.

5) Inconsistency
The problem with this team is similar to the problem with my golf game. If I’m driving and putting well, my irons and chipping are failing me. If my short game is on, my drives are erratic. For the Mariners, the offense, starting pitching, and defense was great on Thursday. The bullpen was not, and so despite playing well in 3 out of 4 facets of the game, that one poor area bit us hard. It seems like that’s how it has gone all year. We just can’t play well in all aspects, and even when we play well in 2 or 3 areas, the 1 that we suck at ends up costing us the game.

Reason for hope after the jump! Continue reading

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Game Recap — 5/11/2010

Nothing like seeing Baltimore on the schedule to cheer up a blue Mariners fan. They are really bad. And yesterday, we looked really good. It appears the team is rallying around the Griffey story and if that’s what it takes to come together, then I’m all for it.

The quick analysis is Cliff did his thing, the Tacoma bats continued their hot hitting, and the M’s took care of business in efficient fashion. Speaking of those Tacoma bats, Langerhans, Wilson, and Saunders combined to go 5-11 with a homer, 2 RBI, and 9 total bases. I especially love seeing Michael Saunders play well, because left field is a position of need for the M’s. If his early success continues, we may look back and point to his call up from Tacoma as the turning point in this season.

Cliff Lee is fun to watch. I love his first pitch strikes. I love how fast he works. I love that he doesn’t walk batters. I love his cool demeanor. I love you Cliff. Now, please engage in the following conversation, because I’ve had this dream a couple times already.

Jack Z: Hey Cliff, thanks for coming in, take a seat.
Cliff: Whats up?
Jack Z: Well, I noticed your contract is up at year’s end and, well, let’s see if we can’t figure something out to keep you a Mariner a little while longer.
Cliff: Hmm, I usually don’t do this type of thing mid-season, but I sure love being part of baseball’s best 1-2 punch. Awe heck, let’s bang something out.
Jack Z: Perfect. How about 3 years, 52 million.
Cliff: That is generous, but 55 million has a better ring to it. Deal?
Jack Z: Deal! Now, excuse me while I go get you some bats. I hear Mauer is available, let’s see what Minnesota thinks of Rob Johnson.

Then I wake up from my dream.

Some more quick notes and hero/goat after the jump! Continue reading

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Series Recap 4/26-4/28

Due to busy schedules and such the Good Guys haven’t been able to cover the Kansas City series game by game.  So, with that being said I’m going to take this weird series down with one post.  We’ll get back on our game by game schedule in this coming series.

Monday 4/26 KC – 3 Seattle – 1

This game sucked.  You can’t really sugarcoat it.  It was Felix Hernandez vs. Kyle Davies and we lost.  Kyle Davies is not a good pitcher but our lineup had no trouble making him look like a cy young.  He had a no-hitter into the 6th inning.  The one good thing the M’s did against him was get his pitch count up even when they were getting shut down.  This was a common theme this series as they did this the next night against Greinke. 

Felix was a little off his game and that’s all the Royals needed to win.  The King was good but he wasn’t his usual great self.  Felix’s few struggles combined with our lack of offense made this game very frustrating to watch. 

Getting no hit through six is frustrating in one way but what followed in the 7th, 8th, and 9th was even more annoying to me.  The Mariners got a ton of runners on in those 3 innings.  The number was close to 10 (sorry, I can’t remember exactly), yet they only drove in one run in those innings.  This is more bad luck than anything and the same thing happened to the Royals the next night.  This doesn’t make it any less annoying.

If the Mariners had this pitching matchup 10 times I’m confident in saying that they would win at least 8 of them.  Unfortunately, it wasn’t to be this night.  Baseball is weird.

Hero: Mike Sweeney.  This is by default.  He got a pinch hit RBI single in the 9th and that’s enough to win him the hero award.  He did have a nice little series though so that’s worth noting.

Goat:  There are so many options.  We’ll go with Chone Figgins.  He was 0-4 with 3 strikeouts.  That’s not very good.  Sorry Chone, I still like you.

Tuesday 4/27 M’s – 3 KC – 2

As much as I expected the Mariners to win the first game of the series, I expected them to lose this one.  Of course, they were playing the Royals so anything was possible but it was Ian Snell vs. Zack Greinke.  If there’s one pitcher I’d think about trading Felix for it’s Greinke.  He’s incredible.  And he was incredible on Tuesday.  The Mariners did manage to get his pitch count up and that’s what changed the game. 

Ian Snell was interesting.  The grass is green.  What else is new.  Snell only gave up 2 runs but he allowed an incredible amount of baserunners.  Fortunately, we were playing the Royals and they don’t hit very well so he was able to pitch out of numerous jams.  His stuff was decent and after the game he said that was the best his slider has felt in a long time.  This is good news since the slider is his best pitch.  This was probably Snell’s best start of the season but it’s not good enough to keep him in the rotation.  So the 4.35 million arm moves to the bullpen.  I don’t see how anyone can argue with this move and I’ll be anxious to see how he does.  He fits the mentality of our bullpen: a wild right-hander with a fastball and above average slider.  Snell could still be a valuable asset to the Mariners, time will tell.

Once the Mariners got to Kansas City’s bullpen it was game on.  When a team runs out Josh Rupe, Robinson Tejada, and Bruce Chen in succession, that team is usually going to lose.  That is not a very good bullpen.  With that being said, the Mariners used some annoying baseball to win this game.  The annoying aspect was exclaimed with Jose Lopez’ RBI double off the pitchers glove.  It’s annoying baseball like Venoy Overton being an annoying defender.  It’s annoying like when we play the Angels.  It’s annoying and it’s so much fun to win that way.

Make no mistake, the Mariners should not have won that game.  Thank goodness they did though.  These first two games show just how weird baseball can be.  There is so much statistical analysis to baseball, and I love that, but these two games show that there’s a certain level of unpredictability to baseball and that’s what makes it great.

Hero:  Milton Bradley.  Bradley was 2-3 and drew a bases loaded walk.  I love Milton Bradley.  Lookout Landing said that he realizes his job is to be an entertainer and I couldn’t agree more.  He makes watching games way more fun.  On this night, he played the role of the villain and fed off the crowds boos.  He played right along with them; taunting them back playfully and brimming with intensity.  I was following the game on Gameday so I didn’t get to see any of his antics live but caught his interview after the game.  If you haven’t already, go read some of his quotes after the game.  They are hilarious.  Milton is becoming one of my favorite Mariners and he’s been slumping.  I know he has his share of haters but I think he’s great.

Goat:  Casey Kotchman.  Kotch had a tough game.  Oh well, he’s been strong this season and after the last game in the series it’s safe to say that his was just a blip on the radar.  Don’t forget that the Mariners were facing Zack Greinke on this night.

Wednesday 4-28 M’s -6 KC -5

The Mariners won a close, weird game this afternoon.  I really enjoy day games.  Anyway, this game was awesome because Gil Meche was pitching, Willie Bloomquist was playing second base, and Yuni was playing short and they all sucked.  I don’t really have a problem with Meche but Bloomquist and Yuni are two of my least favorite Mariners ever.  When they’re at short and second together they may be the worst double play tandem in baseball.  Poor Kansas City.

Hyphen started for the Mariners and had his best start of the year.  He was very effective with his off speed stuff and probably should have only given up one run on the day.  A pop up fell in between Ichiro and Figgins because Ichiro misread it.  Smith still isn’t where he was at the end of last season but he got a little closer today.

The Mariners hit the ball hard most of the day.  It was nice to see the bats come alive before the 8th inning even if it was against Gil Meche.  Ichiro and Figgins both had great days.  The bottom of the order was pretty impressive too.  I konw we’ve addressed this before but Jose Lopez needs to move out of the clean-up spot.  Please.  Put Kotch or Bradley there.  Lopez is a pretty decent 6-hole hitter, clean-up not so much.

Jack Wilson made an absolutely amazing play in the 8th inning.  It’s been described as the Derek Jeter play but with range.  He ranged far to his right, jumped up and threw the ball to first, getting the runner by half a step.  Derek Jeter did make that throw famous but there’s no chance that Jeter would have gotten to that ball.  Yuni wouldn’t have even moved for that ball, he would have just watched it roll through the hole because there’d be no hope of him getting it.  It was an incredible play and saved Mark Lowe some trouble in the 8th.  Wilson also added a double today.

Hero:  Chone Figgins.  Figgins put together a really solid day.  He just missed a home run, which is saying something when we’re talking about Chone.  Figgy tripled, singled and walked.  He hit the ball hard.  Hopefully, this continues and his bat gets a little hotter.

Goat:  Franklin Gutierrez.  Guti just had a bad day.  0-4, it happens.

So, the Mariners are heading home with a .500 record.  This seems fitting because Friday is going to feel like opening day all over again.  This team will be the one we envisioned since December with Lee returning.  Not only does this add a talent boost but it adds a mental boost.  When you get one of the best pitchers in baseball starting for your team your confidence has to go up.  Let the real season begin!

Andrew

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Game Recap 4/20 – M’s 3, Orioles 1

I said I’d take the recap on this one, and then ended up not being able to watch most of it, so this recap will be short.  As much as any game is in a 162 game season, this is the type of game that the Mariners need to win if they want to challenge for the playoffs.  Facing an incredibly struggling team with an inexperienced and mediocre pitcher, a good team has to take advantage.  Will they always?  No, and if they hadn’t it wouldn’t have been the end of the season or anything.  But with the chance to go above .500, a loss would have been more frustrating than a win is satisfying.

Not to say that this win isn’t satisfying.  The offense, while not scoring a lot tonight, did enough and has a lot of guys locked in pretty well.  I remember being told by a coach when I pitched that the most important inning you’ll throw is right after your offense has scored some runs.  It’s the pitcher’s job to maintain the momentum to some degree.  Tonight in the first, the Orioles couldn’t hold a one run lead, and the Mariners could.  Vargas, from what I could tell, did everything you could want from him.  The Orioles are a terrible team right now, but they have enough guys who could hurt you if you don’t execute your pitches.  I’m anxious to see what Snell will do in his next start.  He’s not showing more than Fister or Vargas right now, better stuff or not.  Fister and Vargas will get hit more than they have when they face better teams, but they’ll minimize some damage through lack of walks.  Right now, I’m not confident Snell can limit walks or hits.  I’d love for him more than anyone to prove me wrong, though.

The offense is doing about what we hoped it would, with Ichiro and Figgins on base and a few guys hot behind them.  I’m still not convinced that Kotchman will keep this up or ever hit lefties, but he looks excellent right now.  Bradley swings harder than anyone I’ve ever seen.  He’s a little more contact away from a monster year.  Hopefully he’s alright after leaving the game tonight.  I haven’t heard yet what the injury was.  Franklin is looking like a legitimate MVP candidate.  Once Figgy starts getting a few more hits to go with his walks, they could really have something.  The little hot streak from Wilson is nice too.

Hero, goat, and a few quick notes (after the jump): Continue reading

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Game Recap – 4/18/2010

The thing about a 162 game season is that you can’t get too high or too low.  Things started out bleak at 2-6 and everyone was freaking out.  Then, the 4 game winning streak occurred and everyone was getting excited.  Both of these reactions were justifiable and somewhat expected but maybe a little bit over done.  The Mariners were not going to win the rest of their games and, while a sweep of the Tigers would have been nice, series wins are what this team needs to shoot for.  They have achieved that the last two series and things look promising since we’re playing Baltimore next.  All of that to say that today’s loss is not a big deal.  It’s pretty close to what we should have expected really.

Ian Snell was decent today.  Not bad, not good, but decent.  He allowed quite a few hitters to reach base but escaped trouble most of the time.  He made some really good pitches and showed the upside that people rave about.  Unfortunately, he showed his downside to: too many walks, too many hard hit balls, and an inability to get lefties out.  We can’t really make any conclusions on Snell because he was sick today and just returned from a death in the family.  Although he struggled at times, Snell was one batter away from not giving up any runs today.  That batter was Miguel Cabrera and there’s no shame in giving up a home run to him, he can really hit and proved it on that ball he launched into the upper deck.  The next two weeks are big for Snell if he wants to stay in the rotation but today gave us both sides of Snell and that means we can’t decide anything today.

As for the hitting…. Well, the Mariners proved that they still have trouble with young right-handers that are talented.  They hit some balls hard but couldn’t get anyone in.  Casey Kotchman hits righties pretty hard and definitely did that today.  There were some opportunities to score, the 8th inning was somewhat painful, but the same can be said for the Tigers offense.  In truth, the Mariners probably should have lost by more today. 

Our infield is really coming together.  Jose Lopez looks better and better at third.  He’s not Adrian Beltre but I think that he will have an above average UZR once the years done.  Chone Figgins is really quick at second.  The two double plays he turned on short hops today were very impressive.  Kotchman had another diving play today and is showing why a defensive first baseman is a good thing to have.

The best part about this loss is that we didn’t lose any ground in the AL West.  The schedule becomes pretty easy over the next few weeks while our rivals go up against some of the best teams in baseball.  This was a good series win against a fairly good team.

A few more thoughts after the jump.  Continue reading

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Game Recap — 4/11/2010

I’ll just do a quick write-up since I doubt none of the other good guys want to talk about this one.  The M’s lost 9-2 today and finished their road trip 2-5.  Here’s a few quick bullet points for this ugly game.

  • Hero:  Chone Figgins.  He looked much better today and might start hitting the ball now.  There wasn’t much of a hero to this game but Figgins had 2 hits and an RBI.
  • Goat:  Ian Snell.  He sucked today, enough said.
  • Don’t judge Ian Snell by either of his starts this year.  He shut the A’s down pretty well but just about every ball was hit hard today.  I think he’s somewhere in between these two performances but we won’t know until he has a few more starts.  He was awful today.  I don’t know what that 88 mph pitch he was throwing was.  I hope that it’s not his fastball because if it is he’s going to have a long year.
  • Guti continues to be hot.  He had two hits and a few more great catches today.  Maybe the off-season made me forget how great he is in center field but he has been amazing to watch this week  and will be for the rest of the season.
  • Jose Lopez does not look good at the plate right now.  I can’t put my finger on what it is but he doesn’t look comfortable at all.  It’s probably just a slump but out of all the M’s players who are in a slump, he’s the one I’m most worried about.
  • Griffey’s bat looked slow the first few games but it’s looked a little better the past 3 games.  He was 1 for 3 today and just missed a home run in one of his outs.
  • If you want good news there actually is some.  Erik Bedard and Cliff Lee each threw 45 pitch bullpen sessions today.  They were both throwing hard and felt good.  Lee is expected back at the beginning of May and Bedard in mid-May if all goes according to plan. 

That’s about it for today.  The road trip is over and I think coming home will help this team.  I’m not very worried about them but I will be after a couple more weeks like this.  Opening day will be fun tomorrow and hopefully we go out and get a win.

Andrew

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