Unlike some college sports, pro sports don’t come out with pre-season 1st and 2nd teams, but if the AL West had its pre-season team, this is how I think it would shake out. Clearly this is not a perfect method to predicting the AL West in 2013, and by season’s end the 1st and 2nd team selections will look different. But, it does provide a snapshot of how the division stacks up. My selection process looks at last year’s performance as well as potential this upcoming year, and projected impact/playing time. Some of the picks are obvious and others are less obvious, so of course I’d love to hear your thoughts too.
A couple bullets:
- It is hard to find much separation at the top between Oakland, Texas, and LAA. All 3 have playoff potential, but from this breakdown I would also suggest the Mariners are closer to the good teams in the division, rather than the bad (Houston).
- Say what you want about Oakland’s 2012 season being an anomolye, but it’s hard to criticize the roster Billy Beane has been assembled this year. The A’s don’t have a lot of star power but they are solid at every position, and have a ton of depth, which will surely be an asset at some point.
- The positions that were hardest to find a clear cut 1st and 2nd team selection were Catcher, DH, and the 2nd team OFs and Starting Ps. At catcher, Montero projects to have the most playing time and potential, so I gave him the honors. You could make a case for Jaso and Pierzynski too. The same is true between Kendrys Morales, Berkman, and Trumbo, but the numbers suggest Morales (when healthy) is the best option in the group. David Murphy is a nice player, as is Coco Crisp, Franklin Gutierrez, and Chris Young. Take your pick, I went with Murhpy. Starting pitching was a bit of a toss up to when you start picking the 8th-10th best in the AL West. I tried hard to justify an Astro but simply could not. Iwakuma was my 10th selection, but it could have easily gone to Derek Holland, Jason Vargas, or really any Oakland starter.
- In order to visually quantify the separation between teams based on these picks, I’ve awarded 2 points for a 1st team selection, and 1 point for a 2nd team selection. Here’s how it shakes out on a fancy bar graph.
Filed under Mariners, Predictions, Uncategorized
Tagged as Adrian Beltre, Albert Pujols, Alexi Ogando, Brandon Moss, Brett Anderson, CJ Wilson, David Murphy, Dustin Ackley, Elvis Andrus, Erick Aybar, Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, Houston Astros, Ian Kinsler, Jared WEaver, Jarrod Parker, Jesus Montero, John Jaso, Josh Hamilton, Josh Reddick, Kendrys Morales, Kyle Seager, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Mark Trumbo, Matt Harrison, Mike Trout, Oakland Athletics, Peter Bourjos, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers, Tommy Milone, Yoenis Cespedes, Yu Darvish
Unlike NCAA sports, pro sports don’t come out with pre-season 1st and 2nd teams, but if the AL West had its pre-season team, this is how I think it would shake out. My selection process looks at last year’s performance as well as potential this upcoming year, and often I use the sabermetric WAR to break ties. Some of the picks are obvious (Pujols), and others are less obvious (DH), so of course I’d love to hear your thoughts too.
A quick analysis shows that Texas is the class of the division, with more 1st team selections than the rest of the west combined. Anaheim has good 2nd tier depth, solid pitching, and balance. Texas and Anaheim each have 8 1st or 2nd team selections of the possible 10 positional categories, and of the 14 pitching spots, a whopping 11 are Rangers (6) and Angels (5). The M’s are a distant 3rd, but a ways ahead of the re-building A’s, who are loaded with average players but no star power whatsoever.
I wanted to take this chart one step further, and visually quantify the separation between teams based on these picks. To do so, I’ve simply awarded 2 points for a 1st team selection, and 1 point for a 2nd team selection. Here’s how it shakes out on a bar graph.
Lastly, here are team by team offseason wrap ups, after the jump… Continue reading →
Filed under Mariners
Tagged as Adam Kennedy, Adrian Beltre, AL West, Albert Pujols, Alberto Callaspo, Andrew Bailey, Bartolo Colon, Brad Hawpe, Brad Peacock, Brandon McCarthy, Brandon Webb, Carlos Guillen, Chris Gimenez, Chris Iannetta, CJ Wilson, Colby Lewis, Conor Jackson, Dan Haren, Daniel Cortes, Darren Oliver, David Aardsma, David DeJesus, Derek Holland, Dustin Ackley, Elvis Andrus, Erick Aybar, Ervin Santana, Felix Hernandez, Fernando Rodney, Franklin Gutierrez, George Sherrill, Gio Gonzalez, Hector Noesi, Hideki Matsui, Hisashi Iwakuma, Hong-Chih Kuo, Ian Kinsler, Ichiro, Jack Zduriencik, Jamey Wright, Jared WEaver, Jeff Gray, Jeff Mathis, Jesus Montero, Joe Nathan, Joel Pineiro, John Jaso, Jonny Gomes, Jorge Cantu, Josh Bard, Josh Hamilton, Josh Reddick, Josh Willingham, Justin Smoak, Kevin Millwood, LaTroy Hawkins, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Mark Trumbo, Matt Treanor, Michael Pineda, Michael Young, Mike Napoli, Mike Trout, Neftali Feliz, Nelson Cruz, Oakland Athletics, Peter Bourjos, Rich Harden, Russell Branyan, Ryan Sweeney, Seattle Mariners, Seth Smith, Shawn Camp, Texas Rangers, Torii Hunter, Trevor Cahill, Tyler Chatwood, Willy Mo Pena, Yoenis Cespedes, Yu Darvish
Some games feel bigger than the one W or L that they represent on the schedule. When the M’s win in dramatic fashion on a Saturday night in front of 40,000 at Safeco, it seems odd that that win means just as much as a 10 am weekday win against Kansas City, in front of 11,000 fans. Likewise, a loss like yesterday kind of feels like 10 losses, rather than just one. The fashion in which the Mariners blew a 7-2 lead in the 5th inning yesterday, although not surprising based on how this year has gone, left me feeling frustration that should be reserved for only the most painful, playoff losses; not a regular season game in May.
I should be talking about a Mariners team that is miraculously just 5 games out of first place today. The M’s should have won yesterday, and should have won Saturday. The streak of horrible weekend games should have come to a halt, but alas, the M’s lost on Saturday and Sunday, providing further proof that while good teams find ways to win games, Seattle finds ways to lose them. Thus, they are not a good team. I have so many thoughts, opinions and observations from this weekend series because I saw every inning, and both games had so many layers. Rather than recap both games in typical style, I think I will just bullet point the good and bad that stood out.
The Depressing Stuff:
Ian Snell pitched well through 3 innings, but then I jinxed him by noticing this, and his control went haywire. I’m sure Snell will be gone at the end of the season, if not before then, and with Jack Wilson on the shelf and probably never returning to his old form, it’s probably accurate to say we lost that trade with the Pirates. I would have done it myself, and the trade won’t set the organization back much, but Jeff Clement at least has some potential, whereas Snell and Wilson don’t appear to.
Felix pitched well enough to win on Saturday, 8+ innings of 1 run ball, but the M’s offense was MIA and Brandon League showed again an inability to keep the ball in the park when it matters most.
On Sunday, Jesus Colome and Kanekoa Texeira pitched the 5th and 6th innings, and despite yielding just 2 hits, neither pitcher had much control. Of the 40 pitches they threw, 25 were balls. 4 walks were issued, plus a catcher’s interference, and suddenly the Angels had scratched out 3 runs off 2 singles, and the score was 7-5 heading into the 7th. This felt like the turning point in the game.
Yesterday, David Aardsma entered the 9th with a 1 run lead. The odds of winning may have been 75%, but in reality, it felt like a 50/50 game at this point. Aardsma had Matsui struck out on a full count, but the ump called it a ball, which was a horrible call. Once Matsui walked, I felt things slipping away. Rivera proceeded to crush a ball that somehow stayed in the yard, but it felt like a foreshadow of things to come. A fluke infield hit followed, and the wheels were coming off. Kendrick then blasted a fastball (of course) the other way and the game was over. But back to why things never feel safe when David Aardsma enters the game…
The fact is, Aardsma usually has decent control, but everyone knows he will throw a 93-96 mph fastball about 90% of the time. If that pitch is not located perfectly, it’s a meatball. There really isn’t any deception to Aardsma’s pitching. The hitters just have to sit dead red, make a nice swing, and hope the ball lands in a good spot. Effective closers need not have 3 great pitches, but if he chooses to throw 1 pitch 90% of the time, it had better be a great pitch. Aardsma’s fast ball is not a great pitch, especially if it is not properly located. Aardsma will continue to get hit well for this reason, and sometimes the ball stays in the park or he gets lucky with a ball hit right at someone, but a lot of time the outcome is what we witnessed yesterday. It’s just really frustrating, but really, who didn’t expect him to regress this year? His true colors are showing. Aardsma depends on location and luck, and often one or the other fails him. He seems like a really cool guy though, for what it’s worth.
Our 3rd base coach is awful. I talk to Andrew about this often, and yesterday’s send of Wilson was his worst of the year. Base coaches are like referees in that if no one is talking about him, he is probably doing a good job. We have talked about Mike Brumley way too much this year, thus, he is doing a bad job.
Saturday and Sunday has not been kind to the Mariners this year. Seattle is 3-13 in weekend games, including 6 straight Saturday losses, and currently the team has won just once in its past 13 weekend games. In their 13 losses, 6 have been walk-offs, and 9 have been the crushing loss type, whereby the M’s were either tied or leading in the 8th inning.
9 times the M’s have given up a walk-off hit. Conversely, Seattle has just 1 walk-off hit this season.
The Mariners are 0-6 in extra inning games this year.
Only 3 teams in baseball have a worst record than the M’s.
Do I enjoy digging up these stats? Actually, no. I don’t drink alcohol, but this team brings me closer each weekend!
Positive notes, plus hero and goat after the jump Continue reading →
Filed under M's Game Recaps, Mariners
Tagged as Brandon League, David Aardsma, Eliezer Alfonso, Erick Aybar, Felix Hernandez, Hideki Matsui, Howie Kendrick, Ian Snell, Jack Wilson, Jeff Clement, Jesus Colome, Josh Wilson, Juan Rivera, Kanekoa Texeira, Mike Brumley, Rob Johnson, Shawn Kelley