Tag Archives: Keith Price

UW vs. Nebraska Predictions

A couple of weeks ago, we went to a local farmer’s market.  Corn was in season.  I bought 4 ears of corn for $1.50.  Several days later, I had maybe the worst day of my year thus far.  I went to work and by noon had a pretty good cold.  The afternoon was fairly miserable, and then I went to the dentist after work, who gave me less than great news.  When I finally got home at 8:00 that night, I lit up the barbecue to make a hamburger.  As I was waiting for it to cook, my dad called.  Our family dog, Monte, whom 11 years ago I had brought home from work where he was dropped off as a stray puppy, had died.  He was literally the best dog on the face of the earth.  It was a crappy day.

Know what else I did that day?  I husked some corn.  I like corn.  I especially like to barbecue corn on the cob, and that’s what I did that day.  It didn’t even taste good.

Anyone can be a corn husker, but few can be Dawgs.  Let’s win this one for Monte.

Andrew

I had meant to put up a preview of Nebraska and a recap of last week on the blog but never got around to it.  The Huskies left me feeling a bit more optimistic after last week but they still had quite a few problems.  The Cornhuskers seem to have holes too.  They blew out Chattanooga but took a while to get rolling in that one.  Last week, they struggled with Fresno State and held on for the win.  Fresno is close to even with Hawaii, if anything they’re a little bit worse.  I believe Nebraska is worse than they were last year, but not by much.  When they stomped the Huskies last September I thought they’d be the National Champion.  So, maybe these teams are a lot closer to even than the betting line suggests.  On defense, the Huskies have to stop Taylor Martinez from running all over them.  He’s the only thing that really scares me for the Huskers.  On offense, the challenge will be to run the ball even though Nebraska knows that the Huskies will be running.  If the Dawgs can get a few big pass plays to start the game, then I think the offense will have some success.  They have to tackle well, not lose any assignments, create turnovers, and play smart physical football.  Frankly, I’m excited for this game.  We can see how the Huskies truly measure up.  Last week we saw glimpses of what the Huskies could be (in the first quarter) and this week they’ll have to be that team for the whole game to win.  I don’t think they’re quite able to pull it off but I think they’ll keep it close, making it a fun game to watch.

Nebraska 31, Huskies 21

Dan

Of all the outcomes, I would only be surprised if the Huskies blowout the Huskers. Outside of this, anything seems possible. Before the season began, I was thinking we would get thumped in this game, because in some ways it really is a recipe for disaster. You have the unbelievable road environment in Lincoln, with its red sea and tradition. The revenge factor is there too, and the talent favors NU as well. Throw in a healthy Taylor Martinez, and a repeat of the 56-21 score last year seems possible. But the strength of the Huskies is their D-line, and nothing Nebraska throws (or runs) at them is going to be a surprise. I doubt Martinez gets bottled up all day, but I think the Dawgs will keep him in check, and force him to throw the ball. I also expect UW to score a little, especially with news that Alfonzo Dennard, Nebraska’s stud cornerback, is likely out. Dennard is capable of shutting down one side of the field in the passing game, so his absence could be huge. Despite these reasons to be optimistic, I just see every call, and every bounce going the Cornhuskers way tomorrow. The players in red and white will be amped for this game, and I still think emotion plays a large factor in college football.

Nebraska 45, Washington 20

Joe

I just don’t like where the UW’s defense is at.  I realize Neb runs the ball primarily, and I think UW is much better suited to stop the run.  That said, I think Neb does throw and tries to exploit the Dawgs weakness.  UW  must throw the ball well, because Neb is going to key on Polk, so UW needs to flip conventional thinking: throw to set up the run.  Neb was embarrassed in the Holiday Bowl and they will be jacked up, crowd will be nuts, there’s nothing about this game I like on the road.  Neb simply because of the home field advantage and the revenge factor.  Close early, Neb pulls away late.

Neb 38 – UW 21

Matthew

This is such a strange game.  Everyone knows about the 3 games in a year, with the first two being as different as could possibly be.  Taking away the history, this is a pretty favorable game for the Huskies considering Nebraska is considered a possible top 10 team.  Nebraska is certainly talented, but passing isn’t their strength.  Their secondary, which was the major difference in the first game, has taken a step down, especially if Alfonzo Dennard doesn’t play (probably wishful thinking).  So far, Nebraska has shown themselves to be nowhere near the same team they were last September.

Even with that being the case, I still consider Nebraska the favorite.  They have more talent, they have more experience winning games, and they’re at home.  Plus, it’s not like the Huskies have been dominant this year.  It’s scary but easy to picture Keith Price interceptions, no holes for Chris Polk, and Taylor Martinez running for 200 yards and 4 touchdowns.

For the Huskies to win, I think they have to be balanced on offense and get to at least 27 points.  I think they can do this.  I expect more out of the receivers, and as long as Price doesn’t let the situation get to him, he should have some success.  The defense needs to play like they did in the Holiday Bowl.  Anything much short of that and they could be in trouble.  They can’t let Martinez run wild too often, and they have to consistently control the line of scrimmage.  Up until Friday morning I didn’t give the Huskies much chance, but I’ve talked myself into an upset.  Go Dawgs.

UW 30, Nebraska 24

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Take a Deep Breath

Growing up in a home where sports were always on the forefront, I learned many lessons.  My dad, and brother to a lesser extent, taught me certain truths about game.  Dad passed down the thought that sports are as much mental as they are physical and a hate of zone defense.  One of the lessons he repeated the most was that you never know what is going to happen in the first game of the season.  The game is weird and often not vindictive of a team’s talent level or future record.  With this thought in mind, I would caution my fellow Dawg fans to take a deep breath instead of joining in the insanity that has ensued over Husky Nation.

Don’t take this the wrong way, I’m not happy with the way the Huskies played on Saturday.  It was a pathetic display by the defense and the offensive line.  They were not the team we expected to see this season and if they hope to better last season than they will have to play better (I’ll pick apart what needs to improve after the jump).

But, over the last 2 days I’ve heard irrationality coming from the radio, blogosphere and everywhere else I could hear about the Huskies.  There have been calls for Nick Holt’s job, which is absolutely absurd.  There have been people underselling how well Eastern played, which is strange since everyone under the sun was talking about how the Huskies were in for a battle last week.  There have been players called out who shouldn’t have been.

UW Dawg Pound, which is a good Husky football blog that I follow regularly, said this on Saturday night:

Alameda Ta’amu played like a big fat pile of goo. He was dominated most of the evening by players who had no business being on the same playing field with him.”

This just simply isn’t true.  I was at the game and watch Ta’amu pretty closely.  No, he didn’t have a monster game but he was himself, clogging up the middle and getting free more than any other D-lineman.  This was with him being double-teamed the entire game.  UW Dawg Pound is a blog that I agree with in most things and a blog that I encourage Husky fans to ready, John Berkowitz is a good writer and has good insight on the Dawgs.  That’s why I picked this example, it’s the kind of blame game that’s going out all over this fan base.

So, should we be upset with the way the team played?  Sure, coach Sark sure was in his press conference today but don’t go blowing things out proportion.  A few players played poorly and the team didn’t play at full speed.  I’m sticking with my pre-season prediction and I imagine the other 3 Good Guys’ are doing the same.  Hey, we’re 1-0 and have the 6th longest winning streak in the nation!  I’m good with that.  Continue reading

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Hello Dawg Fans

To anyone still reading this nearly dormant blog, welcome to the 2011 season of college football and the first season for the new Pac-12 Conference.  This is a favorite time of year for the Good Guys, so you should start to see a lot more posts here.  Personally, I am finally done with the graduate school that’s kept me from posting for the past 8 months or so, and I’m looking forward to getting back to writing.

The Pac-12 season kicks off for everyone this week, with Arizona State and Utah both kicking off tomorrow and everyone else starting the season on Saturday.  The only real attention grabbers for the weekend are UCLA at Houston and the battle of off-season troublemakers between Oregon and LSU.  Everyone else plays an FCS or comparable team.  Not to say that all of the teams have a definite win, but even the Cougars should have a pretty easy go of it this week.

Reading through the multitude of Pac-12 previews over the last few weeks, the conference seems unsure, at least after Oregon and Stanford at the top.  Oregon, despite the offseason drama, is still as fast as anyone and a threat to return to the BCS championship.  Stanford has a few more questions after losing Jim Harbaugh and several receivers, but they still have Andrew Luck and as much or more talent as anyone else in the conference.  Expect these two to stay at the top of the league, perhaps meeting as undefeated teams later in the season. Unfortunately, both play in the new North division with the Huskies, meaning that only one of them can play in the new Pac-12 Championship.  Of course, if the Huskies want to play in it instead, they’ll probably have to beat at least one of these teams and win just about everything else.  More on them in a bit.

After those two, the pecking order is anything but clear.  In the south, there is talent with question marks.  ASU looked like the top dog, but they’ve suffered some major injury losses, and the Sun Devils haven’t met expectations since Jake the Snake was there, as far as I can remember.  USC still has excellent talent, but they’re banned from the postseason.  Utah is always good, but how they’ll transition to the Pac-12 is a big question.  Arizona could put up crazy passing numbers if they’re o-line holds up.  Even UCLA and Colorado seem like they could surprise, although each have big questions or weaknesses.  I could truly see just about any order of finish in the south, but none of these teams seem truly dominant.

There is similar uncertainty after Stanford and Oregon in the north.  California might have the conference’s top defense to go with some weapons on offense.  If new quarterback Zach Maynard can consistently get the ball to Keenan Allen and Marvin Jones and Isi Sofele provides a reasonable facsimile of Shane Vereen, they could easily surprise and make a bowl.  It’s hard to imagine Oregon State struggling for a full year, but the offseason has not been kind to them.  They lost Jacquizz Rodgers somewhat surprisingly to the NFL and will start the year with at least four starters out due to injury.  James Rodgers is among those who might return later in the year, so it’s quite possible this will be another season where the Beavers play good football by November.  They have questions on both lines even before the injuries, however, so I have my doubts.  Cougar fans have been talking for months about this being their season to break out.  Their schedule starts easy, and if they can beat San Diego State to go 3-0, they might have something this year.  WSU is definitely better than they have been, but I’m betting talk of a bowl game will prove to be wishful thinking.

That leaves us with the University of Washington.  They’re being picked anywhere from 3rd to 5th in the north, with projections of 6-8 wins.  That seems likely, with a couple of significant injuries the only real plausible path to fewer than 5 wins.  It’s become difficult to expect much out of the Huskies, but this might be the year that starts to change.  I remember a comment on a chat board somewhere saying that the Dawgs won’t really return to dominance until they have Pac-12 starter level players who are unable to get onto the field.  The Huskies are still too young for that to really be the case this year, but they’re getting closer.  Their talent level and depth is significantly better than it has been in years.  They have difference-makers at every position.  The question now is whether all of these players are actually ready to make a difference.  The offensive line needs to translate their talent into consistent performance.  The young linebackers on either side of Cort Dennison will have to grow up and make plays in a hurry.   Everyone else just needs to show consistency.  There is plenty of talent, but in past years it hasn’t always produced results.

After that, it comes down largely to one player: Keith Price.  If the rest of the team plays up to its talent-level, he only needs to be okay.  Manage the game, make most of his open passes, not do anything crazy and the team should be fine.  I think he can do that, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he does more.  Jake Locker was one of my favorite Huskies of all time, but realistically, he wasn’t that great last year.  Price should be able to produce similar, if not better, passing numbers.  However, like many great quarterbacks, Jake had the ability to get better and make plays when he needed to.  There’s no way to know if Price can consistently do that yet.  Probably, he can’t, but luckily there are plenty of others on the team who might be able to fill that void.

I don’t know what the actual over/under line is on regular season Husky wins.  If I had to guess, I would set it at 6 1/2.  I’ve talked myself into expecting 7-5 or 8-4 before a bowl game, and if everything broke right I could see even better than that.  It’s been 11 years since everything broke right for the Huskies.  I’d say they’re due.

-Matthew

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Glaring Similarities–2011 Huskies & Seahawks

The commonalities began last season, when Pete Carroll was brought in to lead the Seahawks. He brought a few USC guys, and we couldn’t help but notice that the Huskies had done the same thing one year prior with Sark and Holt. The 2010 seasons played out quite similarly, with both teams accomplishing much more than their record would have indicated; the Huskies went 7-6 and won the holiday bowl, while the Seahawks finished 8-10, won their division, and even came within 1 game of hosting the NFC championship. Nice accomplishments despite unimpressive records were not the only parallels.

Husky avg. margin of victory-9; won by less than a TD in 4 wins
Hawks avg. margin of victory-12; won by less than a TD in 3 wins

Husky avg. margin of loss-26.5; loss by more than 3 TD in 4 losses
Hawks avg. margin of loss-21; loss by more than 3 TD in 3 losses

Heading into 2011, the glaring similarities continue with our 2 local football teams. Here is a list I’ve compiled, without stretching it too far (i.e. yes, they both play in Seattle, and yes, both play on field turf)

1. Inexperienced QB following the exodus of a legend- Price following Locker, TJack following Hasselbeck

2. Emphasis on running the ball- A talented but young offensive line to create lanes for Polk and Lynch, both known for hard, all out style

3. QB waiting in the wings- 2012 draft or free agency as well as Montana/Lindquist/Miles

4. Strong receiving core- Kearse, Aguilar, Kasen, KSmith for UW, Rice, MWill, Tate, Obo for Hawks

5. Newcomers- WRs Kasen and Rice, TEs Sefarian-Jenkins and Zach Miller are the headliners

6. Focus on acquiring and developing bigger, faster, stronger athletes- The USC way!

7. Leadership void on defense, specifically MLB- Mason and Lofa are gone, both were vocal leaders, and heart of the defense

8. Counting on the class of 2010- Both 2-deep depth charts are littered with guys entering their 2nd year. This comes as no surprise, given that 2010 was Sark and Carroll’s first class of “their guys.” A few similar positions that come to mind are safeties Sean Parker, Taz Stevenson (UW) Earl Thomas, and Kam Chancellor (Sea). O-lineman Erik Kohler, Colin Porter, Ben Riva, Colin Tanigawa (UW), and Russell Okung (Sea). WRs Kevin Smith, DiAndre Campbell (UW) and Golden Tate (Sea).

9. Expectations- Had UW landed Jake Heaps, we might be talking about 8-9 wins, and if the Hawks re-signed Matt, the same would be true. As it stands today, 6-7 wins is the number I hear most for both.

10. 1-2 years away from championship contention- Ty Willingham and Tim Ruskell each left their program/team in shambles, meaning Sark and Pete inherited a major re-building situation. It looks as though each are building towards championship contention around 2012-13 (same with the Mariners!)

Other less notable similarities–Question marks at fullback and linebacker, possible strengths at tight end and D-line. Last but not least, the punting game looks promising!

-Dan

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POLL: Who has a better chance of surviving this weekend?

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Keith Price as a Player?

When Allen Iverson was traded from the 76ers to the Denver Nuggets, he did an interview with Stephen A. Smith.  Towards the end of the interview Smith asked Iverson, “Can you describe Allen Iverson as a player?”  Iverson responded with one word, “Killer.”  Smith then said, “Carmelo Anthony as a player?”  Iverson again said, “Killer.”  Then, to close out the interview, Smith asked, “Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson on the same team?”  Iverson met that with, “Killer duo.”  That was how AI chose to introduce himself to Denver fans.  The Nuggets didn’t really work out.  They didn’t win any championships, they didn’t come very close, and Carmelo and Iverson were not a ‘killer duo’.

This Saturday, Keith Price, who hails from Compton, will introduce himself to Husky and Pac-10 football fans.  He won’t do that with some ridiculous interview, instead he’ll do it in a raucous environment against the number one team in the country.  I think he’d prefer a ridiculous interview.

Before he gives us a formal introduction, some information on the player we’ll be meeting might be of some service.  Mr. Price is the last thing Willingham left us.  He was Ty’s last commit before he was fired.  He stayed committed to the Huskies after Sark was hired despite some late interest from Oregon.

Price drew interest from Oregon because he’d fit in that system.  In fact, he’s similar in build to Dennis Dixon and Darren Thomas.  Like those two quarterbacks, he’s an elusive runner rather than a power runner (like Jake Locker and Jeremiah Masoli).  We haven’t really seen how quick Price is yet, but he ran for quite a few yards in high school (579 yards his senior year) in a spread offense system.  Taking that into account expect some read options out of the Huskies on Saturday.  Price has been said to have a better play-fake than Locker on those options.  Without going into a rant, it’d be nice to see that play run properly instead of being able to guess who’s getting the ball every time they run it.

Keith had a lot of success throwing the football in high school too.  He threw for 2,264 yards his senior  year and had a 71% completion percentage (stats via Scout.com).  Despite these numbers, one of the knocks on Price coming in as a freshman was arm strength.  No one seems to know if this guy can throw the ball down-field, and that’s a must if the Dawgs want to have any chance of an upset.  In the short game, Price seems to be pretty effective.  Sark stated this week that fans will be surprised with Price’s accuracy, I hope he’s right.  Price has shown a quick release in mop-up duty this year.

Frankly, I feel a little bit sorry for this guy.  After Nick Montana committed last year, Price became the forgotten man.  When people think of the Huskies quarterback of the future, most people conjure up images of the Southern California kid who has a famous dad, not Keith Price.  He has had a good moment (more on that in a minute) but I don’t think most fans realize that this guy will most likely be leading our team next year.  For what it’s worth (not much) and from what I’ve seen, I think Price is miles ahead of Montana at this point.  Yes, he’s had a year in the system but he just looks better to me.  Plus, he just seems to be a likable guy.  But, now he’s thrown into a nearly impossible situation that will leave fans with a bad taste in their mouth.  It’s almost the exact scenario Ronnie Fouch was placed in, in 2008.  That year wasn’t a fair judgment on Ronnie Fouch and Saturday won’t be a fair judgment on Keith Price.  He is being thrown into the fire when it’s getting the hottest.  But, this isn’t the first time this year.

In one of the weirder plays in recent Husky history, Keith Price came into the game against USC, with his team trailing, and threw an unorthodox touchdown pass to Chris Izbicki.  He then stood in the pocket in a 2 point conversion attempt and fired a bullet that was dropped by his receiver, although it was tight coverage.  Before most Husky fans had a chance to realize who was in the game, Keith Price threw for his first collegiate touchdown.  Yes, this was only one play and not enough to draw certain conclusions off of but maybe Keith Price is one of those guys who thrives in these moments.  Maybe he’s one of those guys that is happy to face the number one team in the country in his first start instead of being the guy who says, “Man, I wish we were playing New Mexico State instead.”

No matter what kind of guy and player Keith Price is, he’s up against the odds on Saturday.  But, it is college football and anything can happen in this game.  No matter the results, hold off judgment on Mr. Price.  He works hard in practice and will surely give it all he has in the game, and frankly that’s more than we could say about our team last weekend.  The Price probably won’t be right this week, but I’ll believe you regardless of the results, Keith.  If nothing else, you’ve given me Price-to-Izbicki, and that’s more than most people can give.

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Locker Out for Saturday’s Game

Official word is out that Jake Locker will miss Saturday’s game against the University of Oregon.  Apparently the rib injury that has been bothering had progressed from a strain to a hairline fracture before last weekend, and now is a full-on cracked rib after the Stanford game. 

I don’t want to second-guess the doctors or anything, but this could be a case of the coaches picking their battles.  There’s no reason to doubt the diagnosis, and even the initial injury would keep most of the population off the field, but I’m betting Jake would say there’s not much difference in his pain level between now and what it was before the Stanford game.  It’s not a stretch to say the coaches are admitting that Jake Locker wouldn’t have much effect this upcoming Saturday. 

That might sound like an indictment of the coaches, but I don’t mean it that way at all.  There are plenty of other reasons to be on them, but I don’t think this is one of them (and I might be the only one with this interpretation of Locker sitting anyway).  The truth is that UW has little real chance of beating Oregon this Saturday.  Crazy things happen, but I can’t imagine a worse matchup for this struggling Husky team.  UW’s bowl chances will come down to winning their last three games, and I’d rather have Locker healthy for them (hopefully) than have him sacrifice more ribs to Brandon Bair and a hyped up Duck defense.

Keith Price will make his first start in Locker’s place.  Price has looked decent, but he’s only played in mop-up duty, aside from the touchdown pass he threw to Chris Izbicki when Locker was out of the game for a play early in the year.  If nothing else, this should be some good experience for Price for next year.  I can’t think of a worse situation in which to make your first start than Autzen Stadium against a #1 ranked Ducks team.  I’d expect a whole lot of Chris Polk and Jesse Callier, but I never expected Price to Izbicki, so who knows.

One thing’s sure: if Price pulls off the miracle upset, well, I don’t even know how to put into words how amazing that would be.  I’m literally sitting here trying to come up with a way to describe it.  Thinking about it will probably be the best feeling associated with this game, so feel free to hold off reality as long as you can.

-Matthew

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UW Huskies Offensive Preview

In 2009, the Husky offense was largely inconsistent, often showing excellent playmaking ability up until the time they needed to score on the goal line or keep a drive going late in the game.  The hope is this year they will find that consistency and become the high-powered threat that their talent suggests.

Quarterback

Starter: Jake Locker  Maybe you’ve heard of this guy.  Senior starter who passed up millions to try to lead his team to a bowl game and make a run at the Heisman trophy.  He could be the best quarterback in the country, but he does need to make improvements, chiefly with his accuracy.  Sarkisian has him aiming for a 70% completion rate and 3/1 touchdown to interception ratio, which would be a season for the ages.  He likely won’t quite make that, but there’s no bigger threat at the position in the country.

Depth: Keith Price & Nick Montana  The two backups are still fighting for the job, although it appears Price has pulled ahead for now.  Price is more of an athlete who has struggled with his accuracy at times.  Montana, son of Joe, has the smarts but maybe not quite the arm strength or physical maturity yet.  Price will likely backup on a game to game basis, but if Locker went down for an extended period, either might take over.

Analysis: If Locker stays healthy, it doesn’t get much better.  If he goes down, it’s hard to say what would happen with Price or Montana under center. Continue reading

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