Monthly Archives: February 2011
Beating the Odds
There has not been an overwhelming amount of Seattle sports news lately. Pitchers and catchers reported to Peoria yesterday, today the M’s announced Griffey’s hire as a special consultant, and UW hoops are headed to Arizona this weekend, but there is really only one story I feel compelled to write about: The Flying DuTcHmAn. Note-Now would be a completely understandable time to stop reading.
As our loyal readers may know from a video posted months ago, 3 of the Good Guys occasionally shoot some hoops on the weekend. But more than just shooting hoops, we play a game called Flying DuTcHmAn. The name is irrelevant to the game, and actually, the game itself is fairly irrelevant too. Even if I attempt to explain the rules, it won’t make sense, so I will spare you the details. All you need to know is that on Sunday, not only did we set a 3-man outdoor record for DuTcHmAn (58), but our own Andrew Long made 3 consecutive half court shots, spaced about 5 minutes apart. When things like this happen, I often wonder, “what are the chances?!” Well, this time I decided to answer that question.
For starters, there is no absolute correct answer to the odds of stepping up and nailing a half court shot, outside, on a double thick rim. However, based on Andrew’s skill, and various factors, I’m willing to guess 20%, or every 1 out of 5 attempts is a reasonable guess. Draining 3 consecutive ½ court bombs? For that, I must recall my 9th grade probabilities math unit. 20% * 20% * 20% = .008, or slightly less than 1%. Is it more impressive that the 3 made shots were spaced by 5 or so minutes? Probably. But I’m not smart enough to consider these variables. All I know is that on Sunday, Andrew beat 125/1 odds, and it makes me wonder whether the 2011 Mariners could somehow beat their 80/1 odds of winning the World Series. I suppose anything is possible.
-Dan
Filed under Uncategorized
A Look Ahead… Way Ahead
A couple of days ago, Bob Condotta posted the Washington Huskies scholarship players, by class (here’s the link). To summarize, the Huskies are a team that are primarily made up of underclassmen. Only 31 of the current 87 players (yes, this is 2 over the scholarship limit but those things will sort themselves out) are juniors and seniors, the rest are sophomores and true/red-shirt freshmen.
Looking at these numbers, I couldn’t help but think that the Huskies may be able to get to the point where they “reload” instead of “rebuild.” Yes, they have to become a better team overall to get to that point, but there doesn’t appear to be a class that will set them back a long ways, through graduation.
With this in mind, here are my projections of what the depth chart will look like over the next 4 years. This shows what the Huskies have done in building toward the future, while improving tremendously over the last 2 years. Yes, there will be recruits who come in over the next couple years who will start 4 years from now, but these are my projections based on who’s on the roster now. Also, the depth chart for next year is completely subjective, this is just my general feeling of who will start in the coming years. (Most of these will be 2 deeps, but some will just list starters).
2011: (starters in bold)
Offense:
QB: Keith Price (RS SO.)/Nick Montana (RS FR.)/Derrick Brown (Fr.)
RB: Chris Polk (RS JR.)/Jesse Callier (SO.)/Deontae Cooper (RS FR.)/ Johri Fogerson (SR./RS JR.)
FB: Zach Fogerson (SO.)/Kimo Makaula (SO.)/Dezden Petty (FR.)
WR: Jermaine Kearse (SR.)/Devin Aguilar (SR.)/James Johnson(JR.)/Kasen Williams (FR.)/Cody Bruns (SR.)/Jordan Polk (SR.)/Kevin Smith (SO.)
TE: ASJ (FR.)/Michael Hartvigson (RS FR.)/ Marion Barnett (SO.)
LT: Senio Kelemete (SR.)/Erik Kohler (SO.)
LG: Micah Hatchie (RS FR.)/Daniel Kanczugowski (JR.)
C: Drew Schaefer (JR.)/ Mykenna Ikehara (JR.)
RG: Colin Porter (SO.)/Ikehara (JR.)
RT: Erik Kohler(SO.)/Skylar Fancher (SR.)
Comments on the offense: If this holds true, the Huskies would only lose 3 seniors that our starters (Jermaine Kearse, Devin Aguilar, and Senio Kelemete) and only 6 from their 2 deeps (add Jordan Polk, Cody Bruns, and Skyler Fancher). With that being said, Chris Polk is almost surely headed to the NFL, so that leaves a hole at running back. Johri Fogerson is applying for a red-shirt and seems likely to get it, so we’ll call him a RS JR. The Huskies will lose two stars at receiver next year but have the depth to make up for it. It won’t be a huge drop off after this year. Although, the skill positions will need to step up.
I listed both Price and Montana as the starter because no one has any idea who will start. Also, Hatchie and Kancugowski will be an interesting battle for the final guard position (assuming Kohler moves to right-tackle).
Filed under Huskies Football
How to Follow (but not stalk) the Good Guys
In recent days, as we kick off our 2nd year, this blog has gotten a bit more attention. Our views are up thanks to some tweets from a few local writers, and for our new audience, we want you to know where to find us. Our goal is to be accessible if you’d like to check us out, so we’ve tried to cover our bases in the social networking world.
www.goodguyssports.com
The blog offers posts about various Seattle sports topics and opinions. In addition, our twitter feed can be seen on the side panel, as well as other features. This is the center of it all. Feel free to check in occasionally, or you could subscribe and get e-mail updates including new posts.
www.twitter.com/goodguyssports
For quick thoughts and new post updates, follow us on twitter.
www.facebook.com (search “Good Guys Sports Blog”)
Finally, we have a presence on facebook as well. While on facebook, if you search Good Guys Sports Blog you will find both a Good Guys group page, and a community page. You can join the group and receive occasional updates, participate in a discussion, or post on the wall. The community page is similar, and it is synced with our twitter.
A lot of these outlets are synced to keep it all updated. Whichever you fancy, whether it’s the blog, e-mail, twitter, or facebook, the Good Guys can keep you up to date on the latest Seattle Sports happenings.
Thanks for stopping by.
-Dan
Filed under Uncategorized
Man, That Made Me Tired
One of my favorite things about sports is that there’s always something new to learn. I like to think I know quite a bit about a lot of sports, but I’m always coming across something about which I had never thought before.
Today’s random discovery that might only be new to me: man-to-man pass coverage in football is difficult to run because it is much more tiring for the defenders. We always hear that a team doesn’t have the personnel to play man, but I’m not sure I had ever thought about the energy it would take. With zone, there’s a decent chance your corner or safety, or even linebacker, will follow a receiver for 10-20 yards and the play is either over or they pass him off to the next guy. With man, both corners might be running 60 yards down the field every play. This means that good depth is also more important.
While actual player ability and scheme preferences are certainly a bigger part of whether a team runs man or zone, this is something interesting to keep in mind when we’re wondering why the Huskies don’t play more man or when you see a cornerback chasing someone all over the field. Thanks to Mike Lombardi on Bill Simmons’ podcast for the insight.
-Matthew
Filed under Uncategorized
Seahawks 8 Year Run
Watching the Seahawks lose to Chicago a couple weeks ago got me thinking about how many postseason games Seattle has played in recent years. Immediately I could think of numerous games and this inspired me to analyze a little further. I decided to look at the past 8 playoffs, and specifically the 15 NFC teams. I recorded playoff appearances, games played, wins, and superbowl appearances. The results were astounding. Since the 2004 playoffs, the Seahawks have made the playoffs 6 times, played in 11 games, won 5, and appeared in 1 superbowl. In each of those 4 categories, Seattle ranks 1st or 2nd among all NFC teams.
Based on this data, there are many conclusions one can make. What I take away from this is that Seattle has been the 2nd most consistently good NFC team over the past 8 seasons, just behind the Eagles. The numbers don’t lie, and while I’d trade it all in for 1 superbowl WIN, this run the Seahawks are on is quite impressive. We’re getting spoiled here in Seattle watching our team make the playoffs 6 out of the past 8 years. Who could have imagined that 10 years ago?
-Dan
Filed under Seahawks Football
It’s Been A Good Year
Today marks one year of existence for the Good Guys blog. It’s been a funny year in Seattle sports. One of the first posts I wrote was about the Mariners resigning Erik Bedard. I was excited, for good reason, saying that even in the worst case scenario, it was a great signing. What I didn’t expect was that every worst case scenario (save for Felix and Cliff) would come true for the Mariners. The future looks brighter now for the Mariners. I can’t wait to watch Dustin Ackley and Michael Pineda develop, and it’s about time that a guy like Michael Saunders became a productive major leaguer. Still, 2010 was about the most depressing year I could imagine for a baseball team.
Luckily, we got to cover the Huskies last minute run into the Sweet 16. It took three quarters of the season to get them rolling, but once they got there, it couldn’t have been any better. Quincy Pondexter was dominant, Matthew Bryan-Amaning turned into the guy we all were waiting for, and the Pac-10 tournament brought a championship and an amazing amount of unintentional entertainment. And it introduced the world to Beach Girl 5 and Unbreakable. Ultimately, the season ended a little short, but that tends to be the case for most teams, and this was one team that was worth cheering for.
I didn’t really realize it until just now, but the Husky football season somewhat mirrored the basketball season. After high expectations to start the year, the team fell a little flat, sitting at 3-6 and needing three straight wins for their first bowl game in years. They got them in dramatic fashion, on the shoulders of Chris Polk, Mason Foster and Jake Locker. More than a few people predicted a Holiday Bowl appearance when the year started, but no one thought they would slide in with a 6-6 record, and no one gave them a chance in a rematch against Nebraska. They surprised us all, with one of the great performances we’ve seen from the Dawgs in a long time. Jake Locker didn’t have the personal season most expected, but he improbably accomplished his goal of leading his team to a bowl game. He leaves Husky Stadium a legend and someone to be remembered for how he played the game and all he gave to the University of Washington. We’ll miss you, Jake.
The year also brought the World Cup, another successful Sounders season, and a Seahawks playoff run that was improbable, controversial, and earth-shaking, literally. Now we’re a week away from spring training for the Mariners, just past football signing day (Andrew’s favorite holiday). If the Huskies can get rolling on the court again, we’ll be well on our way to a great year.
Aside from using this as an opportunity to shamelessly link all of my favorite posts from this year, I want to thank everyone who read anything we wrote this past year. We started writing this mostly for ourselves. Andrew (my brother), Dan (brother-in-law), and I thought it would be easier writing all of our sports thoughts than texting them to each other or waiting until we were together to talk about them, so almost on a whim we started this blog. Joe joined up a few days later, and we’ve had a blast writing this past year. While we’d probably be writing this whether anyone reads it or not, we’re still excited and honored that anyone takes the time to stop by.
You never know what a year is going to bring, in sports or in life. This past year has seen Dan become a father, and I went back to school, where I’m about to start student teaching. This time next year, hopefully I’ll be teaching high schoolers how to write. Whatever comes along, I’d have a tough time without sports to follow. It’s a diversion during bad times, and it can make the good times even better. Hopefully this year brings a Final Four, a Rose Bowl, and anything good at all for the Mariners. I won’t be picky on that.
On behalf of all of us writers here, thanks for reading and sharing in the experience. We’d love to hear from more of you this year. Take care, and we hope this next year is a good one for all of you.
-Matthew
Filed under Huskies Basketball, Huskies Football, Mariners, Seahawks Football
Reviewing Signing Day
In case you were in a coma yesterday, National Letter of Intent Day was going on throughout college football. I had a thread going on during the morning and early afternoon, but now that all the dust has cleared, I thought it’d be a good time to go back over what exactly happened yesterday. In the next few weeks we’ll take a look at some of the players the Huskies signed, but for now I’ll just give you a quick rundown of what happened yesterday.
What We Lost (heading into the week there were 3 players who were committed to the Huskies that signed with someone else. Here’s who they were and where they went):
- Pauley Asiata – Asiata was the number one ranked prospect in Hawaii and was an interior lineman. He was considered, by most, the best offensive lineman the Huskies were going to sign until he changed his mind. Asiata ended up signing with Colorado yesterday. Out of the 3 players the Huskies lost, this one probably hurt the most.
- Stephan Nembot – Nembot spurned the Cougars to verbally commit to the Huskies a few weeks ago and then spurned the Huskies to sign with Colorado. He’s a linemen that may play on either side of the ball (probably defense). Nembot, originally from Cameroon, could develop into a beast of a player but is looked as more of a project right now. Stephan seemed completely overwhelmed by the recruiting process and I actually felt somewhat bad for him, seeing how this could seem quite foreign to him.
- Kameron Jackson – Jackson had long been committed to the Huskies but instead switched to Cal early yesterday morning. He’s from Cal Poly High School, who has a good pipeline to the Golden Bears. He’s a cornerback, who earned a 3-star rating from Scout.
What We Gained (Signing Day did bring us one surprise):
- Antavius Sims – Antavius Sims seemed to come out of nowhere on signing day. He was more of a backup plan, but his athleticism makes him an exciting prospect. Sims put up some good stats playing quarterback at JC, but he will most likely be a corner for the Huskies. He’s 6’2″ 205 lbs. and reportedly runs a 4.3 40. You can generally find a spot for a person like that on your football team.
Overview:
Many people have lost excitement about this class because of the 3 players the team lost yesterday. What those people are neglecting is the stars that signed yesterday. The Huskies locked up the best players in the state and added some quality players from out of it. In light of the De’Anthony Thomas drama that went down yesterday, Dawg fans should be happy with the stars we signed. It was a good day to be a Husky fan, and yesterday went a long ways toward helping our future.
Andrew
Filed under Huskies Football, UW Football Recruiting
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