Author Archives: Matthew

by | July 20, 2013 · 11:00 am

Rebuilding the Mariners

The Mariners are not a storied franchise.  Outside of about a decade, they’ve been consistently terrible.  If one wishes to hold a pessimistic view, one might say that it took  five Hall of Famers to make any kind of difference, and it still wasn’t enough to take them to the World Series.

None of this is news to Mariner fans.  Losing is difficult to miss.  The last decade has been disheartening and pathetic, the only bright spots two winning but mediocre season and the brilliance of Ichiro and Felix Hernandez.  Not a lot more can be said of the last ten seasons of Mariner baseball.  There are moments, of course, like the combined no-hitter and every Brendan Ryan double play, and personal favorites like Bucky Jacobson or Adrian Beltre and his idiosyncracies.  There is certainly no winning, though.

There still isn’t much winning, but all of a sudden the Mariners are interesting, for the first time since about 2003.  The young talent is finally showing results, not just potential, and the team looks like it might be close to the proverbial corner.  Whether they can turn it, and how far toward success it will actually lead them, remains to be seen, but there is as much reason for hope as Mariner fans have seen in a long time.

It feels like a crossroads, so I want to take time to look both back and forward.  The past decade has been well-chronicled, but I think it’s worth looking to see how the Mariners reached this point, both the good and the bad.  It’s easy to forget everything that’s happened, and what some of the circumstances were that led to decisions and changes.  I think it also helps fans get a bearing on what might be reasonable to expect from the current squad, from players to management.

The future is tied to what this team is now and where it still needs to go.  The last few years should have taught us to never assume we know how young players will progress, but we’re hopefully gaining a little clarity on what has been a murk of a roster.

So, all that to say that I’ll have three posts coming in the next week or so.  One on the past decade, one on the present, and one on the future.  I’d love to get some conversation going in the comments.  Hopefully all the fans out there are still holding onto enough hope to see the promise of this team and to enjoy the good moments.  And hopefully the team keeps winning at least until I finish this series!

Go Mariners!  Believe big!

-Matthew

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by | July 14, 2013 · 12:48 pm

48 Days

Husky Stadium

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

August 31st. Boise State. Husky Stadium.

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by | June 22, 2013 · 1:51 pm

Mariners Minor League & Draft Notes

It’s summer in Seattle and the Mariners are in the middle of another depressing season.  I actually think they have the pieces to turn it around and finish near the .500 range, if their luck would ever turn.  I’m also starting to think this might be one of those years where nothing goes right.  Regardless, when the offense is this bad, they’re hard to watch.

So once again, I find myself paying more attention to the Mariners’ minor leaguers, the one place where the outlook for Jack Zduriencik’s Mariners is always hopeful.  Betweens call-ups, promotions and the draft, a lot has happened lately.

Franklin, Zunino to Seattle

This is old news now, but there’s a little data that’s worth discussing.  Franklin has been quite solid.  He’s at .277/.362/.494, which would be pretty phenomenal if he could maintain it.  His defense looks prettier than Dustin Ackley’s but isn’t as consistently reliable, at least to my eyes.  Zunino is showing some of the expected struggles with the bat, hitting below .200 with corresponding power and on-base numbers.  His power is consistently apparent, but he’s not quite squaring up the ball well enough to get it out.  I don’t see anything that makes me worried for his future, although I wonder how long they’d let him struggle before they’d send him down.  His defense is excellent, and I imagine it will keep him in Seattle for quite some time.  While it’s far too early to say definitively, both look like line-up regulars for years to come.

Ackley, Others to Return Soon?

Since going down to Tacoma, Dustin Ackley has been hitting around .400, with OBA and Slugging % around .500.  He’s done everything they could ask, including spending most of his time in the outfield.  That isn’t necessarily a permanent move, but it gives him an avenue back to Seattle for this season.  Rumors are he’s working on some mechanical fixes, including shortening his stride.  True or not, I’d expect to see him back around the all-star break, if not sooner. Continue reading →

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by | June 12, 2013 · 7:54 pm

Catchers

Given a bit of time, everything develops its own mythology.  Baseball is one of the best examples of this.  There’s Babe Ruth calling his shot, and Jackie Robinson stealing home, and “the luckiest man on the face of the earth,” and so much more. The mythology is always there, as deep as one wants to look, and it only makes the game richer and more fascinating.

Part of the mythology is the archetypes ingrained in the game. I’ve written before about the importance of shortstops, but that’s only one example. Centerfield might be the most legendary position on the diamond, and I think it’s solely because most seats face toward the centerfielder, and we look out there and see him running down everything near him, going over the fence and deep into gaps, all long strides and grace.  Because it’s most demanding position, it draws the most talented players, and so the mythology becomes self-perpetuating.  We have Mickey Mantle and Joe Dimaggio and Willie Mays and Ken Griffey Jr.  We have songs about it. Everyone wants to play centerfield.

Shortstop and center field are identified with grace, but that doesn’t fit for catchers.  Catchers are some combination of bulldog and point guard.  They’re a coach on the field, the dependable captain who hoists it all on his shoulders.  A catcher is someone for all others to follow.  He’s an ambassador to the umpire, a counselor to pitchers, and a slugger in the batter’s box.  He’s a font of wisdom, like Yogi Berra.  Often, he’s the best player on the field, like Johnny Bench, but he always get a little less credit than he deserves, because he spends his life squatting down instead of racing into the gaps. We close our eyes and we can see the perfect catcher.

There’s always debate over whether teams, to be successful, need players who fill these traditional roles. Teams try to play a bad glove shortstop for his big bat, or they put a left fielder in center, or a guy know one respects at catcher.  Sometimes it works.  Usually it doesn’t.  We have the images in our head for a reason, and it’s because they are successful.  Even if that’s not the case, we can say teams and players need to get over the mumbo-jumbo of it all, but that’s not going to happen.  The mythology has become reality, whether it deserves to be or not.

The Mariners have not had a catcher who came close to fitting the traditional catcher archetype since Dan Wilson.  Miguel Olivo had the toughness, but he was sufficiently undependable and untalented to prevent him from filling the role.  Kenji Johjima had a couple of great seasons with the bat, but language and culture issues kept him from ever being the leader everyone would like.

I never understood how Rob Johnson kept a job.  He couldn’t catch and he was a terrible hitter, but somehow he started a lot of games over a few seasons.  A lot of that was a lack of better options, but not completely.  A few years ago I went to Mariners Fanfest, and we sat down to listen to a Q & A session with a handful of players, Rob Johnson among them.  It became clear within minutes why he was the Mariners catcher.  He controlled the moment and was obviously well-liked by his teammates.  He had a sense of command and confidence that was exactly what we want from a catcher.  Johnson didn’t have enough skill to supplement his presence. Ultimately, production wins out, but that he held the job as long as he did says a ton about what teams want from their catchers.

In the first inning of his first game, Mike Zunino stood up for a pop fly and threw off his mask, and it was clear at that instant that he is a Catcher, the kind you dream about.  He didn’t even make the play.  The camera cut away from him almost as soon as his mask was off, but by some combination of his eyes and the sureness of his movements, his control of the game was obvious.  He looks like a catcher, tall and solid but still athletic-looking.  You see him move and think, oh, this is what the scouts see, this is why he was the third pick in the draft.  There is a stillness and confidence to his movements that makes obvious what Jesus Montero was missing.

This is not a guarantee that Zunino will be a success.  Remember Rob Johnson.  He will have to hit, and his first at-bat exhibited the questionable strike zone judgement about which so many have fretted.  He has plenty of time to work on that, though, and fans can rest easy knowing that he already has those intangibles the Mariners have lacked for years.  Maybe finally having a real catcher will be the first step to making the Mariners a real baseball team.

-Matthew

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by | June 11, 2013 · 8:31 pm

Mike Zunino in Seattle: It’s Fine!

The Mariners called up top catching prospect Mike Zunino today, just over a year after he was drafted third overall out of the University of Florida.  Known for his leadership, defense and power, Zunino hit like Babe Ruth when he started his professional career in Low-A Everett last summer.  That earned him a late season promotion to Double-A, where he took a step down to Lou Gehrig production levels.  Already high expectations elevated to the point that fans were wondering if he would make the Mariners out of spring training.

That didn’t happen, and no one really expected it would, but his first weeks in Triple-A made it look like his Seattle absence would be short.  By the end of April, he started coming back to earth, dragged low by breaking balls.  At time of call up, he’s batting .238/.303/.503.  He’s not in the line up tonight as he had to fly from Las Vegas today, but I would expect to see him tomorrow. Continue reading →

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by | June 6, 2013 · 8:37 pm

Mariners Draft DJ Peterson, Austin Wilson

The first two rounds of the MLB amateur draft are in the books, and the Mariners added a pair of college hitters.  With their first pick, they selected New Mexico 3B DJ Peterson.  He’s a masher with solid plate discipline.  Billy Butler is the comp I’ve heard often for Peterson, and a Baseball America writer threw out the Edgar template: solid all-around hitter who might not hit a ton of homers but should balance that with lots of doubles and good on-base skills.

Discounting the guys who were unlikely to be available, Peterson and college outfielder Hunter Renfroe were at the top of my wish list.  That doesn’t mean much, as I’m no scout and am just going by others’ opinions, but they seemed like good fits for what the Mariners need.  By the time the Mariners picked, pitcher Braden Shipley was also surprisngly still on the board and would have been a good pick, but I was happy they went with Peterson.  Some called him the best all-around college bat available, and he should move fairly quickly.  If you’re worried what they’ll do with both Seager and Peterson, don’t be.  There’s a good chance Peterson’s a first baseman or DH, and there’s no guarantee that both of them are good by the time it would matter anyway.  They can let it play out and adjust positions once Peterson forces the issue.

Second rounder Austin Wilson is a big (6’5″ 245 lb.) outfielder from Stanford.  He’s one of those guys with lots of talent who’s performance thus far has not matched expectations, especially in the power department.  He’s battled some injuries, though, and Stanford is notorious for messing up guys’ swings.  I’m sure the M’s hope to get him healthy and straighten out his swing and turn him into a monster.  It could happen, although usually it doesn’t.  The Mariners were rumored to be interested in him with their first pick, so from that perspective, getting him in the second round is a win.

The draft resumes in the morning, and there will be a lot of new Mariner prospects, most of whom will never sniff the majors.  I’m hoping their next pick is Rowdy Tellez, a slugging lefty high schooler with the best name in the draft.  I might recap tomorrow night, or I might not, but there are tons of other places to get much better information in this case.  See the end of the post below for some recommendations.  Happy drafting!

-Matthew

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by | June 5, 2013 · 1:15 pm

Mariners to Get New Mariners Tomorrow, and Other Notes

I’m mostly going to talk about tomorrow’s MLB draft, but there are a few things I should mention first:

  • It seems pesky injuries are hitting the Mariners harder than usual this year.  The latest casualty is catcher Jesus Sucre, who was hit on the back of his hand by a backswing last night. Nothing’s broken, but he’ll be out at least a few days.  Sucre’s been okay, and better than that defensively, since taking Jesus Montero’s roster spot, but he’s no huge loss.  The only problem is the M’s had no other catchers on the 40-man roster, since Montero just suffered a knee injury and is out for a month or more.  They promoted Triple-A back-up Brandon Bantz, who will be around for a week at most and may not even see the field.  Again, no big deal, just a bit of a headache for the M’s to figure out.
  • To open a 40-man roster spot for Bantz, Franklin Gutierrez was placed on the 60-day disabled list. That’s retroactive to when he first went on the DL, but it still feels tantamount to the Mariners giving up on Guti.  I’m sure we’ll see him the second half of the season, and he might even get our hopes up again, but I see no way he’s around next year, even at a near-minimum salary.  Having Guti on the roster means compensating in too many other ways, and it’s just not worth it.  You have to be able to count on players to stay on the field for longer than a week.  It’s a shame, because he still has mountains of talent, but that’s the way it goes sometimes.
  • On a brighter note, Nick Franklin has been a revelation as Dustin Ackley’s replacement at second base.  He actually looks a lot like Ackley did when he first came up, with a great eye and a swing that delivers a lot of contact and surprising power.  He looks better at second, which is nothing against Ackley, who was extremely solid there.  In only a week, Franklin has done enough to generate talk about whether Ackley will ever get a chance to reclaim his spot.  Those talks are fair, but also remember that Ackley was quite good for a half a season before falling apart last year.  You just never know.
  • The Mariners have struggled before this Chicago series, but I’m actually feeling a little optimistic.  The worst part of the schedule is over, and the offense has crept up to league average and is still improving.  More importantly, there’s hope on the horizon for the biggest weakness: the back of the rotation.  I’m okay with Joe Saunders, and Aaron Harang I can live with for the moment.  That fifth spot is a killer, though.  Luckily, Erasmo Ramirez could return within a couple of weeks, and if he has his form back he could immediately become the staff’s third best starter.  Danny Hultzen has started throwing again, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him up around the all star break.  Keep your fingers crossed, but the options are slowly improving.

MLB Draft

The MLB draft starts tomorrow, which most baseball fans are probably not even aware of.  I personally love the draft, but it understandably gets less attention than it’s basketball and football counterparts.  Most of the players are unknown, and they generally won’t make the majors for 3-4 years, if at all.  I like following it because I can completely release my judgement of the picks and just trust in the Mariners.  Trust in the Mariners?  Am I crazy, you ask?  The Mariners are actually quite good at drafting.  Since Zduriencik and Tom McNamara, the amateur scouting director, took over, the Mariners’ farm system has gone from maybe the worst in baseball to top two or three, almost solely on the strength of their drafts.  We can debate another day on why some of those draftees are failing in the majors, but getting players into the system hasn’t been the problem.

After choosing Mike Zunino third overall last year, the Mariners are picking 12th tomorrow, which is good and bad for all the usual reasons.  It’s hard to know who they’ll take that far down the draft, and the Mariners are one of the more unpredictable teams anyway.  I’ll list a few potential names below.  Just remember that no matter who they pick, don’t get worked up.  They know much more about these guys than any of us do.  You can treat the Mariners drafting like we treat the Seahawks drafting: it can be surprising and you might wish they had done something different, but they’ve earned a pretty high level of trust at this point.  That said, here are a few names:

DJ Peterson is one of the best bats in the draft, and maybe the most advanced.  A college third baseman at New Mexico, he’ll likely move to first or DH but should have plenty of bat to still be a threat there.  The comparison I’ve seen most is to Kansas City’s Billy Butler.  Peterson is probably my top choice of guys who could realistically be available, but I’m not sure he’ll make it to them.

Hunter Renfroe is a college outfielder who is getting a lot of buzz lately.  He’s athletic enough to be solid in a corner and has plenty of power.  Someone mentioned Jay Buhner as a comparison.  The Mariners are low on outfield prospects and Renfroe is probably the best one they might have a shot at.

Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier are both outfielders from Georgia and the two best high school position prospects in the draft.  Both will likely go before the Mariners pick, but there’s a chance one could slip.  I’d be thrilled with either.

JP Crawford, a high school shortstop, is the only shortstop considered a first rounder.  I gather he’s not elite with the glove but could be above-average.  The bat is solid.  He’s expected to go right around the Mariners’ pick.  Not sure how I feel about Crawford, but it’s always good to have shortstops around.

Reese McGuire is a high schooler, and he also happens to go to school minutes away from where I’m writing this, at Kentwood High.  He’s a catcher who projects to be solid with the bat and quite good with the glove.  He was going to the Mariners in a lot of earlier mock drafts, but I think most now believe he’ll be gone by then.  I’d be fine with that.  He sounds like a good prospect and it’s fun to add local kids, but I’m not crazy about high school catchers, especially with Zunino and others in the system already.

That’s probably enough names for now.  I didn’t mention any pitchers, because I didn’t feel like it.  A pitcher pick wouldn’t surprise though. Watch especially for high schooler Phil Bickford and his big fastball, or Ryan Stanek, whom the Mariners previously picked but couldn’t sign away from college.

I’ll try to post something tomorrow night after the M’s pick.  For better coverage, try Baseball America or Minor League Ball from a national perspective, and Seattle Sports Insider and Jay Yencich at USS Mariner for a local breakdown.

Go Mariners! Believe Big!

-Matthew

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by | May 1, 2013 · 12:07 pm

Dustin, He’s So Hot Right Now

The 2013 Mariners are annoyingly familiar.  They’re losing, for one, 12-17 at the moment.  The offense is giving itself chances to score runs, but it spits on those chances before grounding them weakly to shortstop.  Felix and Iwakuma are among the top five or so starters in the league right now, but the other three rotation spots have been inconsistent at best and horrible at worst.  The bullpen has bright spots, but it’s dealing with some injuries and the replacements have been spotty.  Injuries have also decimated the outfield. Michael Saunders just returned to the field after being one of the team’s best hitters early, and Michael Morse has apparently recovered from or at least learned to compensate for his broken finger, but Franklin Gutierrez is doing exactly what’s expected of him, with weird leg injuries halting then stopping his season.

Much of the lamenting has centered around the continued failure of the team’s supposed future, namely Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak and Jesus Montero.  I’m not going to argue for Smoak and Montero, at least not right now, but Ackley’s demise might be greatly misstated.  Or at least, his resurgence has been somewhat unnoticed.

Right now, Ackley is sitting on a .253/.284/.286 line. That’s not good, although the batting average is about 30 points higher than last year. His OPS+, which merely compares his OPS (.570) to league average, is 65.  League average is 100, so he’s been 35% worse than average.  

Now, time for fun with numbers and random cutoff points!  Ackley started this season as cold as Antarctica.  After seven games, he had two hits and two walks.  If we take out those seven games, he’s batting .310.  The OPS is still only .681, which isn’t good, but I’ll talk more about that below. If we look at roughly the last two weeks, starting April 17th, the line jumps to .383/.396/.447.  Those numbers over a full season would be phenomenal and beyond any hopes we could have.

Picking starting and ending points like I just did is risky analysis, so I make no guarantees on anything here.  It’s certainly possible Ackley is just on a hot streak and he will soon plummet Smoak-style.  It’s also possible the first week or two was a terrible cold streak and the .310 BA is more realistic.  Arbitrary date selection isn’t great, but it doesn’t automatically make a more hopeful interpretation illegitimate.

More interesting is the disparity in the stats.  The batting average is great, but his on-base and slugging percentages still lag.  Once the benchmark of offensive stats, batting average has fallen out of favor of late.  OBP and slugging are more comprehensive, and more advanced stats go even further.  Right now, everything Ackley is doing is batting average driven, and within that, it’s all singles-driven.  He has three walks and three doubles, and 23 singles.

The scouting report on Ackley has always been he’s an elite contact hitter with a great eye and solid gap power.  After fixing some mechanical issues dating back to last season, the contact skills seem to be on the rebound.  He’s hitting the ball hard to all fields again and rolling over on pitches less.  His plate discipline is hard to wade through.  His swing rates are roughly the same as ever, although he’s swinging at pitches outside of the zone a bit more.  That might be a good thing, as part of Ackley’s problem has been a stubborness in not swinging at borderline pitches.  It hasn’t worked out well, so a slightly more aggressive approach might help.  He’s making a little better contact in all facets this year, so something’s working.

The biggest concern with Ackley is the lack of both walks and power.  I would bet the two are related.  There’s no reason for pitchers to go outside the zone when they still have last year’s scouting report and he’s only hitting singles thus far.  Add in that Ackley makes contact with almost everything, and pitchers are going to have to work hard to walk him.  That’ll change if he keeps hitting like this, but the process would be helped greatly (as would his production) if more of his singles start going for extra bases.  Pitchers are going to challenge him until he does some damage.

Dustin Ackley is on a singles streak, which is great and gives hope for the future.  But he won’t continue to hit nearly .400, and he will need to do more than hit singles to really make an impact.  Walks and at least gap power need to be a part of the package.  I’m betting both will come soon. Ackley’s slowly putting his game back together. A barrage of doubles might signal the next and most important piece.

-Matthew

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