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UW vs. California Predictions

Let me take you inside the absolutely fascinating inner workings of Good Guy Prediction posts.  I (being Matthew) send Danny, Andrew and Joe a text at some point on Friday that says, “Hey, send me your predictions when you get a second.”  They all send me an email, and when I get home that night, I combine them in a post, write an incredibly exciting intro, and that’s that.

Ideally, this process would happen on Wednesday or Thursday, so that people could read the predictions before gametime and so my fellow Good Guys have a little more time to respond.  Alas, I’m lucky if I think about this post before lunch on Friday, so occasionally you get a predictions post with two predictions instead of four, like today.  Joe’s off hiking somewhere, which sounds great if you’re into that sort of thing.  Andrew played a show tonight (which was great) and has his 21st birthday Saturday (happy birthday!), so he’s a little otherwise occupied.  Dan and I will hold the fort for this week.

Edit: And Andrew pulls through with his email as soon as I posted this.  Good job, the little guy! (That’s his nickname.)

Dan

After beating Cal on the road last season, it would seem unlikely that the Huskies would let the Bears return the favor tomorrow, especially considering UW appears to be improved from last year. But Cal may have finally found a playmaking quarterback, something they have lacked for the past couple years. Maynard is a dual threat QB whose game apparently resembles Keith Price. He has weapons to throw to in Keenan Allen and Marvin Jones, and I’d imagine the Bears will gobble up yards like most teams seem to do against UW. However, I have a hunch the Dawgs will yield less points than one might expect, if for no other reason than the defense is bound to come out hungry. This game is a virtual toss up in Vegas, but  for no good reason I think the Huskies put all 3 phases together tomorrow, and Sark can finally smile. Maybe the homer in me is talking, but I think Cal is catching UW at the wrong time.

UW-45, Cal-27

Matthew

It’s hard to be completely sure about anything Husky related right now, but I’m pretty sure that if Keith Price and Chris Polk are on the field, the offense will score at least 30 points against almost anyone.  The defense is anyone’s guess.  They have the talent, but I think there’s a lack of confidence in the new linebackers that’s affecting the whole unit.  Sarkisian’s comments about the defense were revelatory.  Hopefully they cut loose this week and let their athleticism take over.  I’d rather see big plays with a few mistakes than the steady drip of yards they’ve been surrendering.

The last two games between these two have been wins for the Dawgs, a blowout and last year’s game winning touchdown by Polk with no time on the clock.  I’d love another blowout, but I’m expecting a close one.  The Golden Bears are a talented team in almost exactly the same position as the Huskies, as an unproven team with talent.  The winner becomes the front runner for third in the tough northern division.  I think the Huskies pull it out.

UW 38, Cal 34

Andrew

I don’t know what to think of this game.  It’s a very important game in this season where we’re trying to figure out if the Dawgs have taken another step forward.  I have a lot of confidence in the offense, they are moving the ball very well the last 2 weeks.  But, Cal also scares me.  I’m not sure if they’ve earned me being scared of them (I’m not sure they care about me, in general so they are kind of jerks), but they have a strong defense and a decent offense.  Against the Huskies defense, a decent offense is all you need it seems.  But sooner or later, the defense will play better.  It might be the year 2017 or it might be in this game.  I have said almost nothing in this preview.  This game seems even and whoever wins the turnover battle will win the game.  Home field advantage will be a key.  For some reason it sure seems to me like Cal is going to win.  Maybe it’s because it’s my birthday and I’m not sure if the Huskies have ever won on my birthday.  I hope I’m wrong and I hope Chris Polk, Keith Price, and Ta’amu run up to me in the stands after a blow out and deliver me a game ball along with a million dollars.  But, for now I’m going to say Cal wins 35-27.  Prove me wrong Dawgs!  GOOOOOO!!!!! HUSKIES!!!!!

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Huskies at the Quarter Pole

It’s hard to believe, but the Husky season is already at the quarter point.  Our Dawgs’ have the record we all expected them to have after 3 games, 2-1, even if they’ve taken a strange route to get there.

September started with a game against Eastern Washington where the Huskies were outplayed in almost every area of the game.  They got the win, but panic ensued around Husky nation and people were upset.  Next, Hawaii came in and the Dawgs came out on fire.  They jumped to a 21-0 lead and seemed like a team who could compete with the best of the best.  Then they let Hawaii back into it and held on for a victory.  The Huskies were 2-0 for the first time since 2007 but neither victory provided a ton of confidence in the team.

Yesterday, they went into one of the toughest places to play in the country.  They stood toe-to-toe with Nebraska in the first half, and by all accounts would have had the lead going into halftime if it weren’t for a terrible call.  Then, the third quarter started.  A three-and-out, a terrible call on a punt, a touchdown, a fumbled kick-off, a touchdown, a turnover on downs, and a touchdown later the Huskies were down by 24.

It was a terrible stretch to watch and, judging from post-game interviews, was even worse to play in.  Now that I’ve cooled off and watched the rest of the game, I’ve realized that those stretches are one of the many reasons why I love college football.  On any Saturday, a team can be totally swept up in the momentum of the game and anything can happen.  These players are taking calculus and history classes during the week and all of a sudden they’re dealing with poor officiating and bad bounces of the ball and they completely lose their composure.  That happened to us on Saturday and I’m not saying it’s acceptable, it’s not, but that’s college football and it’s part of the reason why it’s so exciting.

Anyway, the Huskies regained their composure and went on to battle back, fighting valiantly to the finish.  It wasn’t the outcome we had hoped for, but it was probably the best game the Huskies have played all season.

I’ll break down each position after the jump.  Continue reading

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UW vs. Nebraska Predictions

A couple of weeks ago, we went to a local farmer’s market.  Corn was in season.  I bought 4 ears of corn for $1.50.  Several days later, I had maybe the worst day of my year thus far.  I went to work and by noon had a pretty good cold.  The afternoon was fairly miserable, and then I went to the dentist after work, who gave me less than great news.  When I finally got home at 8:00 that night, I lit up the barbecue to make a hamburger.  As I was waiting for it to cook, my dad called.  Our family dog, Monte, whom 11 years ago I had brought home from work where he was dropped off as a stray puppy, had died.  He was literally the best dog on the face of the earth.  It was a crappy day.

Know what else I did that day?  I husked some corn.  I like corn.  I especially like to barbecue corn on the cob, and that’s what I did that day.  It didn’t even taste good.

Anyone can be a corn husker, but few can be Dawgs.  Let’s win this one for Monte.

Andrew

I had meant to put up a preview of Nebraska and a recap of last week on the blog but never got around to it.  The Huskies left me feeling a bit more optimistic after last week but they still had quite a few problems.  The Cornhuskers seem to have holes too.  They blew out Chattanooga but took a while to get rolling in that one.  Last week, they struggled with Fresno State and held on for the win.  Fresno is close to even with Hawaii, if anything they’re a little bit worse.  I believe Nebraska is worse than they were last year, but not by much.  When they stomped the Huskies last September I thought they’d be the National Champion.  So, maybe these teams are a lot closer to even than the betting line suggests.  On defense, the Huskies have to stop Taylor Martinez from running all over them.  He’s the only thing that really scares me for the Huskers.  On offense, the challenge will be to run the ball even though Nebraska knows that the Huskies will be running.  If the Dawgs can get a few big pass plays to start the game, then I think the offense will have some success.  They have to tackle well, not lose any assignments, create turnovers, and play smart physical football.  Frankly, I’m excited for this game.  We can see how the Huskies truly measure up.  Last week we saw glimpses of what the Huskies could be (in the first quarter) and this week they’ll have to be that team for the whole game to win.  I don’t think they’re quite able to pull it off but I think they’ll keep it close, making it a fun game to watch.

Nebraska 31, Huskies 21

Dan

Of all the outcomes, I would only be surprised if the Huskies blowout the Huskers. Outside of this, anything seems possible. Before the season began, I was thinking we would get thumped in this game, because in some ways it really is a recipe for disaster. You have the unbelievable road environment in Lincoln, with its red sea and tradition. The revenge factor is there too, and the talent favors NU as well. Throw in a healthy Taylor Martinez, and a repeat of the 56-21 score last year seems possible. But the strength of the Huskies is their D-line, and nothing Nebraska throws (or runs) at them is going to be a surprise. I doubt Martinez gets bottled up all day, but I think the Dawgs will keep him in check, and force him to throw the ball. I also expect UW to score a little, especially with news that Alfonzo Dennard, Nebraska’s stud cornerback, is likely out. Dennard is capable of shutting down one side of the field in the passing game, so his absence could be huge. Despite these reasons to be optimistic, I just see every call, and every bounce going the Cornhuskers way tomorrow. The players in red and white will be amped for this game, and I still think emotion plays a large factor in college football.

Nebraska 45, Washington 20

Joe

I just don’t like where the UW’s defense is at.  I realize Neb runs the ball primarily, and I think UW is much better suited to stop the run.  That said, I think Neb does throw and tries to exploit the Dawgs weakness.  UW  must throw the ball well, because Neb is going to key on Polk, so UW needs to flip conventional thinking: throw to set up the run.  Neb was embarrassed in the Holiday Bowl and they will be jacked up, crowd will be nuts, there’s nothing about this game I like on the road.  Neb simply because of the home field advantage and the revenge factor.  Close early, Neb pulls away late.

Neb 38 – UW 21

Matthew

This is such a strange game.  Everyone knows about the 3 games in a year, with the first two being as different as could possibly be.  Taking away the history, this is a pretty favorable game for the Huskies considering Nebraska is considered a possible top 10 team.  Nebraska is certainly talented, but passing isn’t their strength.  Their secondary, which was the major difference in the first game, has taken a step down, especially if Alfonzo Dennard doesn’t play (probably wishful thinking).  So far, Nebraska has shown themselves to be nowhere near the same team they were last September.

Even with that being the case, I still consider Nebraska the favorite.  They have more talent, they have more experience winning games, and they’re at home.  Plus, it’s not like the Huskies have been dominant this year.  It’s scary but easy to picture Keith Price interceptions, no holes for Chris Polk, and Taylor Martinez running for 200 yards and 4 touchdowns.

For the Huskies to win, I think they have to be balanced on offense and get to at least 27 points.  I think they can do this.  I expect more out of the receivers, and as long as Price doesn’t let the situation get to him, he should have some success.  The defense needs to play like they did in the Holiday Bowl.  Anything much short of that and they could be in trouble.  They can’t let Martinez run wild too often, and they have to consistently control the line of scrimmage.  Up until Friday morning I didn’t give the Huskies much chance, but I’ve talked myself into an upset.  Go Dawgs.

UW 30, Nebraska 24

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Poll Question–Luck, Prince, or Blue Chips?

Seattle sports fans, which of these scenarios would you most prefer see play out?

-Dan

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UW vs. Hawaii Predictions

Another week, another game.  Today’s question: why are Hawaii, Pepperdine, and every school in San Diego not dominant in sports?  Given the choice between Pullman, Lubbock and Hawaii, I know which I’m choosing.

Matt

I expected the Huskies to roll last week, and I was way off.  I thought Sarkisian’s comments this week were fascinating, especially when he talked about the players needing to realize that they can play and can’t be tentative.  Against Eastern, they looked like they did early last season: tentative, unsure of themselves, lacking an identity.  Remember that game against Arizona (might have been in 2009) where Arizona kept throwing bubble screens until the Huskies finally stopped one?  That is kind of how last week was.  Eastern kept throwing and luckily Desmond Trufant finally stopped them.

Most of us assumed, or at least hoped, that the identity the Huskies established at the end of last year would carry over to this season.  In week one, it didn’t.  The physical playmaking was nowhere to be seen.  There’s no reason to think they won’t eventually get it back, unless Jake Locker was just an irreplaceable part of that identity.  I don’t think that’s the case, so the question is when they’ll flip the switch and dominate someone.  Here’s to hoping it’s this week, because they might not win this one otherwise.

UW 37, Hawaii 24

Dan

The last time Hawaii played in the state of Washington, they won. But that was against WSU, and typically the Warriors are awful away from the island. I really don’t see Washington losing this game, but they easily could if the same team that played Eastern shows up. Ta’Amu and the d-line have got to make things uncomfortable for Moniz, and the linebackers have got to disrupt the passing lanes. The secondary gets a boost with Richardson’s return, and having a nickel package all game will help. On offense, UW is going to open things up a bit, and 30+ points seems likely.

I’ll call it Huskies 33, Warriors 24

Joe

All week it has been DEFCON 1 surrounding UW football.  The amount of vitriol toward the Dawgs performance against EWU could fill the Grand Canyon.  No Husky fan in their right mind was happy with how they played last Saturday.  No coach or player, for that matter, was happy with how they played.  The saving grace is the Huskies did indeed survive and salvage a win, which at the end of the day, in sports, is all that matters.  Another saving grace is they get a home game versus Hawaii.  Yes, the Rainbow Warriors (I love to continue calling them that) run the run ‘n’ shoot, which will cause problems for the Huskies secondary, no doubt, but I think the Dawgs come out much more aggressive and focused for this game.  No way they play sluggish and uninspired like they did against Eastern.  I believe coach Holt will continue to dial up defenses to get the players in the right position to make the play.  It’s up to the players to execute, and I believe they will.  It’s a matter of survival at this point.  Step up, or lose.

Offensively, I expect coach Sark to open up the playbook and throw down field.  The lack of a deep passing game last week was unacceptable, and they know it.  Look for the UW to attack Hawaii deep, while pounding Polk up the middle, with Callier changing the pace outside.  I am fully expecting to see ASJ get targets and passes coming his way.  He’s too talented a weapon to only throw to once or twice in a game.  In the end I am going with UW if for no other reason they are the more desperate team, despite being 1-0.  They must prove last week was a fluke.  There is no other option if they want to go bowling again this year.

UW wins 33-27

Andrew

Last week was an embarrassment, but it was what the Huskies needed to be ready for this week.  It’s been a bit of a strange week around Husky Nation.  The players all seemed to be chewed out Monday afternoon and Sark gave one of the most honest press conference’s I’ve ever seen, even though it was after a win.  Most players then declined to do interviews this week and practice was closed to everyone on Thursday.  The level of intensity has definitely gone up, but will that mean an improvement?  I think so.  Maybe it’s because I never got down much after last week, but I think the Huskies are still an 8 win team in the Pac-12.  An 8 win team in the Pac-12 has to beat Hawaii at home.  Does Moniz (Hawaii’s QB) scare me?  Sure, but no one else on their offense does.  Their defense looked good against Colorado, but Colorado hasn’t won a road game since their Buffalo mascot was born it seems.  Tomorrow at this time I might be kicking myself for buying into all the things we’ve heard about the team being more intense, but for now I think it’ll mke a difference.  In fact, I think the Dawgs win more comfotably than last week.  Go Huskies!

UW 35, Hawaii 27

Go Dawgs!

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My Brother’s Bold Predictions

My brother, Matthew Long, is one of the smartest people I know.  It’s no secret that he’s the best writer on this blog and he knows about many different subjects, as opposed to me just knowing about music and sports.

I can’t keep track of Matthew’s predictions on here.  I imagine his record is fairly similar to all of ours.  I don’t remember him predicting anything too outlandish or being way off on anything (this excludes the 2010 Mariners but hey, screw you 2010 Mariners!).

Something happens though when Matthew Long gets into the heat of a game though.  I can’t tell you how long it’s actually happened, two times come to mind, but maybe it’s gone back since he started paying attention to sports.  The problem may even go back to the days of him being a toddler but I wasn’t around then to observe.

Last year, the Huskies opened the season against BYU.  About 4 minutes into the game, Jake Locker faked a hand-off, rolled to his right and completed a pass to Devin Aguilar that went for 15 yards.  I’m not sure what overcame Matthew.  Maybe it was the joy of the play and the feeling that came with it.  “This game’s over!” he remarked with a little chuckle of confidence.  I could see where he was coming from, that play really showed the Huskies having the better athletes.  Sure enough, the Dawgs went down the field to score on that same drive and it seemed like this prediction would hold true.  Needless to say, it didn’t.  Yeah, blame Matthew.

Then last week, the Huskies were up by 3 and in trouble.  Eastern had just moved to about the Huskies 30 yard-line on a big pass play with about 50 seconds to go.  Everyone in the stadium was thinking it, but Matthew had the guts to say it, “We’re going to lose this game” he remarked in a sort of frankness that left all who heard (me and my dad) hollow.  On the next play, Desmond Trufant intercepted a pass in the end zone and the Huskies sealed their victory.

We can’t fault Matthew for being bold.  He willingly goes where not many people do, making bold statements on the 1st drive of the game and predicting a terrible loss with 50 seconds left.  It’s the curse he has, but it works out for the rest of us because we know the opposite of what he predicts will happen!  Thank you for putting us before yourself, Big Boi, I don’t know what I’ll do when one of your bold predictions come true.

Andrew

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History Repeating Itself?

In 1988, the Huskies finished 6-5, narrowly missing a bowl game. The following season, Washington improved to 8-4 and capped the season with a win in the Freedom Bowl against the Florida Gators. Expectations were high for the 1990 team, but the momentum from the Freedom Bowl quickly deflated when Washington narrowly beat lowly San Jose State in the opener, 20-17. Sound familiar so far? In week 2, the Dawgs beat a dismal Purdue team, 20-14. UW then rolled through the Pac 10, finished 10-2, and won the Rose Bowl. The next year was a perfect season, and a national championship.

I’m not saying the Huskies are about to put together a 10-2 Rose Bowl campaign, followed by a perfect season. But the similarities are there when comparing the ’88-89 team to the ’09-10 version. I would bet the fan base had a similar vibe following the close win against SJSU to open 1990. But things can change quick in college football, as evidenced by an 0-12 Husky team becoming Holiday Bowl Champs 24 months later.

The Huskies are on the rise, even a non-homer would agree with this, and in the next year or two, some special things may happen at UW. Our team is 1-0, and riding the 6th longest win streak in college football. It’s time to bury the Eastern game, and pray T’Amu turns into Emtman.

-Dan

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Take a Deep Breath

Growing up in a home where sports were always on the forefront, I learned many lessons.  My dad, and brother to a lesser extent, taught me certain truths about game.  Dad passed down the thought that sports are as much mental as they are physical and a hate of zone defense.  One of the lessons he repeated the most was that you never know what is going to happen in the first game of the season.  The game is weird and often not vindictive of a team’s talent level or future record.  With this thought in mind, I would caution my fellow Dawg fans to take a deep breath instead of joining in the insanity that has ensued over Husky Nation.

Don’t take this the wrong way, I’m not happy with the way the Huskies played on Saturday.  It was a pathetic display by the defense and the offensive line.  They were not the team we expected to see this season and if they hope to better last season than they will have to play better (I’ll pick apart what needs to improve after the jump).

But, over the last 2 days I’ve heard irrationality coming from the radio, blogosphere and everywhere else I could hear about the Huskies.  There have been calls for Nick Holt’s job, which is absolutely absurd.  There have been people underselling how well Eastern played, which is strange since everyone under the sun was talking about how the Huskies were in for a battle last week.  There have been players called out who shouldn’t have been.

UW Dawg Pound, which is a good Husky football blog that I follow regularly, said this on Saturday night:

Alameda Ta’amu played like a big fat pile of goo. He was dominated most of the evening by players who had no business being on the same playing field with him.”

This just simply isn’t true.  I was at the game and watch Ta’amu pretty closely.  No, he didn’t have a monster game but he was himself, clogging up the middle and getting free more than any other D-lineman.  This was with him being double-teamed the entire game.  UW Dawg Pound is a blog that I agree with in most things and a blog that I encourage Husky fans to ready, John Berkowitz is a good writer and has good insight on the Dawgs.  That’s why I picked this example, it’s the kind of blame game that’s going out all over this fan base.

So, should we be upset with the way the team played?  Sure, coach Sark sure was in his press conference today but don’t go blowing things out proportion.  A few players played poorly and the team didn’t play at full speed.  I’m sticking with my pre-season prediction and I imagine the other 3 Good Guys’ are doing the same.  Hey, we’re 1-0 and have the 6th longest winning streak in the nation!  I’m good with that.  Continue reading

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