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Good Guy’s Husky Predictions: Week One

It’s almost here!  It was hard to focus during my first week of classes and I’m a little tired of having dreams about this game.  So, gather ’round everyone and read what the Good Guys have to say.  We’ll probably be wrong on numerous occasions this year but here’s to hoping we aren’t wrong this week!  On to the predictions:

Matthew:

I have a hard time believing that the Huskies are going to lose this game. If it were being played at Husky Stadium, I don’t see any way they wouldn’t be the overwhelming favorite, but two years without a road win is certainly a neutralizing force. Here’s betting they overcome in Provo. Outside of a big offensive line (although all I’ve seen about the line is that it’s big, not necessarily good), BYU is full of question marks on offense. That should help a young but promising Husky defense find itself in time to support an offense that could run all over the field against the Cougars. For all the BYU talk this week about being better prepared for a running quarterback, they won’t be able to keep up with Locker. My feeling is that the gap between the teams is much more than Locker, but either way, I see the Huskies getting their first of two wins over Cougars this year.
UW 34, BYU 20

Dan:

The last time UW played at BYU was Rick Neuheisel’s first game coaching the Dawgs. I remember sitting in Red Robin watching Kevin Feterik pass for 500 yards as BYU hung on to beat the Huskies in a thriller. Weird stuff happens at BYU. Maybe its the Mormon voodoo, or the high elevation, or the players there who leave for 2 year missions and then re-appear on the roster. At any rate, BYU games scare me. But the Cougars lost a ton from last years team, especially on offense. It’s a rebuilding year in Provo, and while Jake Heaps is a load of talent, I’m not too scared facing him in his first collegiate game. The Huskies desperately need a road win to jump-start the year, and they will be ready in Provo on Saturday. Too many question marks and a patch-work defense for the Cougars have me picking UW.
Huskies-27, Cougars-21

Andrew:

I remember sending out a text 220 days ago that said, “221 days until the first Husky game.”  Needless to say, I’ve been looking forward to this game for quite a while.  But how will it play out?  I’ve been trying to figure that out for a month and am still not too sure.  The Huskies seem to have more talent than their opponents but BYU has a proven coach and a homefield advantage.  They also have an offensive line that scares me a little bit.  Fortunately, I just don’t think that’s enough.  Starting new skill players all over the place against the fastest Husky team in at least 7 years.  Jake Locker will be the star throughout the season, but I think Chris Polk will be the guy tomorrow.  Against an unproven Cougar front seven, Polk could run all over the place.  Expect BYU to pack the box and make Jake beat them over the top.  Fortunately, Jake and his array of receivers can do that.  Man, this offense could be amazing.  I think the Huskies will prove to be just too much for BYU.  I sure hope so, or this 3 day weekend will see me laying in bed, upset for a little longer than usual on Sunday.
UW-31, BYU-20

Joe:

I think the road woes end here.  I know it’s tremendously easy to say the Huskies have Locker and BYU doesn’t, but I think it’s that simple.  Jake is a 5th year senior with other worldly leadership and athletic skills.  He’s the best football player on the field.  He also, by the way, has eight other returning starters on offense that will allow the Dawgs to control the ball.  In the air with Jake and the talented WR’s, and on the ground with Chris Polk.  I think Washigton will win the time of possession battle, and they will minimize turnovers, winning that battle as well.  Defensively, I think the Huskies will surprise.  They may not be the most talented bunch, but they will play hard, and will be disciplined, being in Coach Holt’s system for two years now.  I think BYU’s plan to play two different QB’s will be an advantage for the Huskies defense.  Look for the Dawgs to blitz and hide coverage schemes a lot to confuse the two inexperienced Cougar play-callers.  I also think the Huskies have the kicking advantage as well.  High altitude and Folk kicking could be the x-factor late in this game.  The only reason this game is close is the home field advantage.  If this game is at Husky Stadium, I would not be this generous to BYU.
31-24 UW wins.

There you have it!  Post your predictions in the comments for this game or any other pac-10 game.  GO HUSKIES!

The Good Guys

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UW Huskies Defensive Preview

In 2009, the Husky defense was frustratingly inconsistent.  Daniel Te’o-Nesheim and Donald Butler, possibly its two best players, both graduated, but there is a lot of hope the defense will be greatly improved in 2010.  This is due partly to a dominating end to last season, holding WSU and Cal to 10 points in the final two games, but it’s also based on the potential maturation of a young group.

Defensive End

Starters:

Everette Thompson:  Thompson sounds like he’s recovered from an offseason achilles injury just in time, and stands to be one of the most important pieces of the defense.  A highly touted recruit, he’s spent time at tackle as well.  He’s bigger than most Husky D ends in recent memory, which will hopefully aid in the run defense.  It’s even more vital that he contribute in replacing some of Te’o-Nesheim’s record-number sacks.

Talia Crichton:  A true sophomore, Crichton played more than anyone likely anticipated last year, with decent results.  Hard to say what to expect from him, but coaches have been impressed with his improvement this fall.  He seems to be more of a pass rusher, which this defense desperately needs.

Depth: Kalani Aldrich, De’shon Matthews, Hau’oli Jamora, Josh Shirley.  Aldrich is trying to recover from knee surgery, but has decent potential if he can get back all the way.  He’d have contended for a starting spot if not for the injury.  Matthews is a former big time recruit who’s never really made an impact.  He has one last shot and is in position for a lot of minutes as the number one back-up.  Jamora and Shirley are true freshman.  Jamora is in the two-deeps and will play.  Shirley is more heralded, but joined the team late and seems to be having a tough transition to end from high school linebacker.  He’s likely to redshirt, but if he progresses and they’re needing a speed rusher, who knows.

Analysis:  This is one of the toughest positions on the team to call.  There’s potential, to be sure, but the only one who inspires real confidence is Thompson, and he’s coming off major surgery.  This group has to get pressure on the quarterback this year.  Hopefully they’ll be aided in that by an improved interior of the line.

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BYU’s Scouting Report

I’m not going to pretend to be an expert on BYU, to be honest I’m not sure there is an expert on them this year with a few unknowns, but it’s time to find out what we’re up against on Saturday.  I’ll go position by position, this should become a regular appearance on the blog.  Lots of posting going on today and tomorrow so make sure you scroll down!  Here we go:

While finishing 11-2 the last 3 years, the Cougars figure to take a little bit of a step back this year.  They have quite a few new starters and will be breaking in new players on Saturday.

Quarterback: As you’ve probably heard by now, BYU will be playing two quarterbacks on Saturday.  One is a more mobile quarterback, Riley Nelson.  The other is true freshman, Jake Heaps.  Heaps has excellent passing skills but doesn’t have the athletic ability that Nelson has.  I wouldn’t say this will be a position of weakness at BYU, both guys are very talented, but it’s certainly an unknown.  It’s hard to know what a quarterback will be like in their first game.  These guys are definitely a drop off from the graduated Max Hall though (at least in this point in time).  I’ve never thought that playing two quarterbacks is the best way, but it can work if it’s used correctly.

Running Back: Harvey Unga was kicked off the team this off-season and that’s great news for the Huskies.  Unga was a running back in the mold of Toby Gerhart, who ran all over the Huskies in 2008.  This year, BYU will be a running back by committee team.  The two guys who figure to the get the most carries are J.J. DiLuigi (cool name) and Bryan Kariya.  DiLuigi is more of a big play back and will get the start.  So, that’s two skill positions that will use more than one guy at the position.  That’s the good news.  Both of these guys did put up respectable numbers as back-ups last year though.

Wide Receivers and Tight End: BYU graduated their leading receiver last year but returns a pretty steady group.  McKay Jacobson figures to be the leading receiver after having 23 receptions for 556 yards last year while battling injuries.  O’Neil Chambers also was solid last year (32 receptions for over 300 yards).  Other guys that figure in are Luke Ashworth, Spencer Hafoka, and a few really tall, freshmen receivers.

The tight end spot is a complete unknown.  There are 5 freshman battling for the starting job and Mendenhall hasn’t said who will start.

Offensive Line: This is the strength of the Cougars offense.  Led by All-American left tackle, Matt Reynolds, this is the biggest mismatch BYU has on UW.  These guys are big (average of 306 lbs.) and have quite a bit of experience.  Nick Alletto was at the other tackle position last year but is now moved to right guard.  Both of those guys are 330 lbs.  Braden Hansen and Terance Brown started every game at the guard positions last year.  Brown has now been moved to center.  Braden will take his spot at right tackle and may rotate with Walter Kahaialii.  If BYU wins this game, I think it will be because of this line.

To the defense after the jump!  Continue reading

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A Roadmap to Pasadena

When a college team hits rock bottom, as the Huskies did following their 0-12 season in 2008, the best case scenario is to re-build and contend for the conference within 3 years. For the Huskies to accomplish this lofty goal, the process looks something like this:

Step 1, off season—Fire coach, hire new one that brings fresh approach. Begin a culture change by recruiting differently, practicing differently, thinking differently.
Step 2, in season—Back up the talk by winning a few games in year 1.
Step 3, off season—With systems in-place, raise the bar and expect more from returning players in the off-season. Focus the recruiting on keeping in-state kids at home.
Step 4, in season—Challenge for a .500 season and possibly a bowl game in year 2.
Step 5, off season—Get bigger, stronger, faster. Win some recruiting battles and sign a blue chip or two.
Step 6, in season—Compete for a winning season and possibly a conference championship.

In the Sarkisian era, Washington is entering Step 4 of this process, and thus far the first 3 steps are checked off with an A+ grade. A .500 season and possibly a bowl game would be right on track to accomplish the 3 year turnaround. But anyone who follows this team knows the hype and expectations are higher than just 6-6 this year. The X factor is, of course, the return of Jake Locker. In fact, there may as well be an asterisk under step 3 that says, “If Locker returns, skip steps 4 and 5, and move onto 6. But is conference contending hype reasonable at this point for the Huskies? Could Jake conceivably slash a year off what is already an aggressive 3 year re-build process from winless to champs? Let’s breakdown just how realistic a Rose Bowl season could be by forecasting 5 assumptions, and ranking the probability of each on a scale of 1-10.

  • Assumption 1: The Pac-10 is a 6 team race—Realistic scale: 9
  • The Pac-10 is a 10 team division, of which 4 teams can already be written off—Washington State, Arizona State, USC and UCLA will not be playing in the Rose Bowl on 1/1/11. This is not a fact, but realistically, 3 of these teams are not set up to win the Pac-10 this year, and USC is not eligible for a bowl game. Under this assumption, this is really a 6 team race, and UW is in the thick of it.

  • Assumption 2: The Pac-10 champion will have 2 conference losses—Realistic scale: 6
  • Reviewing the past 8 seasons, only twice has the Pac-10 champ gone undefeated in conference play (both times USC did it). 4 times the champ lost just 1 conference game, and twice, the champion suffered 2 losses. This year is as wide open as any of the previous 8 years, especially with USC out of the race, so my assumption is the conference champion will have 2 losses.

  • Assumption 3: The Huskies will go undefeated at home in conference play—Realistic scale: 6
  • Coach Sark has already said the Huskies will go undefeated at home this year, so the assumption is that Washington will record conference wins against Arizona State, Oregon State, Stanford, and UCLA. Wahoo!

  • Assumption 4: The Huskies will go 3-2 on the road in conference play—Realistic scale: 5
  • Of the contending competition, the Huskies are on the road against Arizona, Oregon, and Cal. UW also visits Washington State and USC this year, neither of whom factor into the conference race, but a loss to either counts the same. Assuming UW wins the Apple Cup (no I’m not counting this as a separate assumption), the road schedule boils down to 4 games, of which the Huskies had better win at least 2 if they want to be in Pasadena in January. Let’s assume the Dawgs claw out 2 wins in these games, and we’ll move on to the final assumption.

  • Assumption 5: The Huskies will win any tie-breaker atop the conference—Realistic scale: 4
  • Given the assumptions I’ve made, a 2 loss Washington team will probably have company atop the conference. Let’s assume Oregon and/or Oregon State have 2 losses as well. It is impossible to know how these teams will have accrued 2 losses, and what tie-breakers may facture in at this point, but one thing we do know is that Oregon or Oregon State will play each other in the Civil War, and I would not be surprised if this game has major implications for the Huskies, especially if 2 losses is the magic number that I’m assuming it will be. At this point, Washington may just be a team of destiny, so let’s assume the tie-breakers favor UW, and that the Ducks, who only needed a Civil War win to be conference champs stumbled in Corvallis. How sweet it would be.

    By making just 5 fairly reasonable assumptions, the Huskies have landed in Pasadena. The conventional re-build model suggests a 6-6 season is nice progress in year 2, but the moment Locker announced his return, this season became un-conventional. With so many unknowns in this conference, the Locker led Huskies have as good a shot as any. So throw the 7-8 win goal out the window, and go all in for this team. Who knows, maybe Jake Locker’s last game will be in Pasadena.

    -Dan

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    UW Huskies Offensive Preview

    In 2009, the Husky offense was largely inconsistent, often showing excellent playmaking ability up until the time they needed to score on the goal line or keep a drive going late in the game.  The hope is this year they will find that consistency and become the high-powered threat that their talent suggests.

    Quarterback

    Starter: Jake Locker  Maybe you’ve heard of this guy.  Senior starter who passed up millions to try to lead his team to a bowl game and make a run at the Heisman trophy.  He could be the best quarterback in the country, but he does need to make improvements, chiefly with his accuracy.  Sarkisian has him aiming for a 70% completion rate and 3/1 touchdown to interception ratio, which would be a season for the ages.  He likely won’t quite make that, but there’s no bigger threat at the position in the country.

    Depth: Keith Price & Nick Montana  The two backups are still fighting for the job, although it appears Price has pulled ahead for now.  Price is more of an athlete who has struggled with his accuracy at times.  Montana, son of Joe, has the smarts but maybe not quite the arm strength or physical maturity yet.  Price will likely backup on a game to game basis, but if Locker went down for an extended period, either might take over.

    Analysis: If Locker stays healthy, it doesn’t get much better.  If he goes down, it’s hard to say what would happen with Price or Montana under center. Continue reading

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    Huskies Release Depth Chart for BYU Game, Other Notes

    UW released the official depth chart for Saturday’s game today.  You can find it here.  There aren’t really any surprises.  The back-up QB spot is listed as Price or Montana, so no answers there.  Not that an answer is needed until one of them has to play.  D’Andre Goodwin is listed as the third starting WR, a product of a good camp for him and James Johnson missing time with an injury.  Johnson will play, but might not be quite up to full-speed after missing parts of the last two weeks.  Some other notes about the Huskies and the rest of the Pac-10.

    • Sarkisian said that all 12 true freshman on the two-deeps would likely play, along with a couple more possibilities.  When asked about Josh Shirley and Sione Potoa’e, Sark gave an uncomittal, “Potentially.”
    • BYU is planning to play both quarterbacks after failing to choose between Jake Heaps and Riley Nelson.  Nelson is more of a scrambler, while local boy Heaps can throw the ball all over the place.
    • ASU decided on Steven Threet as their quarterback, although Brock Osweiler will get chances to play in the first few games.  Luckily for ASU, they play Portland State and Northern Arizona their first two games, which should give them a chance to test both quarterbacks while still winning fairly easily.  The Sun Devils are also breaking in a new spread offensive system.  There’s always the potential for new offenses to click quickly and surprise opponents for a while.  I’m not betting on it here, but ASU is a bit of a sleeper to me.
    • We’ll have a deeper look at this week’s Pac-10 games later this week, but there are some big ones, especially OSU at TCU.  OSU often starts the season slowly, so if they can come out and beat a top 10 team, it could get them rolling quickly.  It would also knock TCU out of a chance at the national championship, which would make me happy, if only because we wouldn’t have to listen to talk about it all season long.  We’ll get enough of that from Boise State fans, unless OSU can beat them as well.  In related news, I’m close to annointing OSU as my second favorite Pac-10 team, in case you were wondering.

    That’s all for now.  Only 5 days till game time!

    -Matthew

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    UW Football 2011: The Big Questions

    Before spring practice started, the Good Guys decided these were the key questions for the Huskies 2011 season.  We looked at them again mid-summer, and now that fall camp is over, let’s see where the Dawgs stand entering the season.  From all reports, they had a very good and surprisingly uneventful camp.  Other than Deontae Cooper, there were no major injuries.  James Johnson is still hobbled a little bit and there’s a chance he’s not at full speed or even doesn’t play against BYU, but he should be back before long.  Kalani Aldrich is still working his way back from knee surgery.  He hasn’t had any set-backs, but his rehab isn’t going quite as quickly as hoped, especially when compared to fellow defensive end Everette Thompson, who has come on in the last week to establish himself as a likely starter at BYU.
    Speaking of BYU, Saturday is now less than a week away, so let’s jump right in!
    1. Can the offense become a consistent threat?  Maybe the offensive line can answer this for me.  Their development is all that’s keeping this offense from being among the best in the country.  I have high hopes, but until they take the field, the line is a question mark.  The loss of Kavario Middleton hurts, but it’s unclear how much.  For all his potential, his production hasn’t exactly been staggering.  Chris Izbicki is a decent replacement, and true freshman Michael Hartvigson has shot up the depth chart as a true pass-catching tight end.  All the ingredients are here; now we just have to see how they come together.
    2. Can the Dawgs field a defensive line that will stop anyone?  From the sounds of it, the defensive line was introduced to the weight room this summer.  Seemingly every player made huge weight gains or losses since last season.  The focus of the summer lifting program was to make the team more explosive, and the coaches feel they’ve made big strides in that area.  And while there are stories like this out of every camp every year, I’m inclined to believe this one, because if there was one this the Huskies defensive line wasn’t last year, it was explosive.  Alameda Ta’amu dropped something like 30 pounds and from the sounds of it might make a run at the all-conference team.  Talia Crichton has cemented himself at one defensive end spot, and Thompson’s quick recovery puts the other spot in good hands for the majority of the snaps.  Cameron Elisara is solid at both tackle and end, and the depth looks surprisingly good considering the position they were in this spring.  All that said, they have a lot to prove on the field.  The signs are positive, but if they give up 500 yards to BYU, that’s all that will matter.  Continue reading

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    Kasen Williams Commits!

    One of the top receivers in the nation officially committed to be a Dawg tonight!  Welcome Kasen!  Woof woof!

    Andrew

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