Category Archives: Mariners

by | June 24, 2012 · 7:19 pm

The Mariners of the Future: First Base

After looking at the interesting and fairly loaded catcher position yesterday, we move to the grassless pastures of first base.  Once past the big league roster, which is bare enough, most of the future first basemen in the organization are likely to be moved from other positions.  Most of the current first basemen in the minors are not really prospects for one reason or another.

The Breakdown

It’s too much to say the position begins and ends with Justin Smoak, but he is still the primary hope for 1B production.  We could write posts for days about Smoak.  I’m a big supporter, or have been in the past, but time is clearly running out.  There are plenty of big time prospects that take a long time to find themselves in the majors, so there’s still hope.  The question is how long the Mariners can wait for him to become that player.  Given the current state of the team and the lack of better options, they can keep waiting for a while, but Smoak needs to show some consistency before this season ends. Continue reading →

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by | June 23, 2012 · 11:29 am

The Mariners of the Future: Catcher

The Mariners are in a weird spot right now.  They’re inconsistent and pretty bad more often than not, but then they run off a hot streak every so often.  They have mostly young talent with promise.  The problem is that few of those guys are performing in a way that cements them as a future Mariner.  Even fewer have the type of elite talent where they should be penciled into future line-ups regardless of current production.  When you add in the minor leaguers, the roster is becoming a logjam of guys with unclear talent levels.

I’d expect we’ll start to see some changes, perhaps as soon as the trading deadline.  It’s possible that any of the few veterans on the team might be traded, but what will be more interesting is if Jack Zduriencik packages a few guys to get more proven performers.  This roster has too many unproven, promising players that need to be made into a cohesive, productive roster.

With all that in mind, this is a good time to look at the players that might figure into the Mariners’ plans over the next few years.  I’m going to take this position-by-position and just run through some names, with my opinion of how I’d lay out the roster, if I have one.

Catcher is first up.  A year or two ago, catcher was the most talent-starved position in the system.  That’s been almost completely reversed now.  In about a year, the Mariners have drafted about seven catchers with promise and traded for Jesus Montero and John Jaso.  That’s a pretty good influx.  Still, there’s no definite catcher for the future due to shortcomings for each of them.  Here’s the rundown: Continue reading →

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by | June 21, 2012 · 5:10 pm

Charlie Furbush – Shut-down Reliever or 3rd Starter?

I started this post before Dave Cameron at USS Mariner published his post about Furbush.  We think along the same line, although I believe Furbush may have a little higher upside.  Anyway, go read that and sorry we doubled up on topics today! 

Lately, Mariners starting pitchers not named Felix and Kevin have been bad.  Jason Vargas was awful yesterday and has already given up 20 home runs this year.  Hector Noesi shows flashes of potential has his moments but then gets lit up on 0-2 counts – although his location isn’t terrible and sometimes he’s just a victim of good hitting, regardless of what Geoff Baker would have you believe – and Erasmo has struggled thus far (although I believe he’s a lot better than what he’s shown).  The Mariners rotation is in trouble.

There is help on the way!  Danny Hultzen is finally in Tacoma and Taijuan Walker is still one of the top 2 prospects in the Mariners system.  James Paxton and a few others aren’t too far behind those guys.  Those guys (excluding Hultzen) are still probably a year or so away though so the M’s need to take steps to fix the pitching now.  That’s where Charlie Furbush comes in.

When Charles Roderick Furbush was traded to Seattle for Douglas Wildes Fister he was labeled a starter but after surrendering too many home runs and not impressing the front office, he was moved to the bullpen to be a middle reliever.  He started out by throwing several innings out of the bullpen, but has been used more as a LOOGY and has been quite successful at that.

Through his limited innings, his strikeouts have been higher (although he’s always had a pretty high K rate), his BB’s have been lower and his HR/9 have gone way down.  While starting, Charlie struggled against right-handed batters.  As Cameron points out in his post, last year Furbush gave up 2.08 HR/9 to right-handed hitters.  This year, in facing 48 right-handed hitters he’s only given up 2 home runs.  Sure, it’s a small sample size but it’s not like he’s been getting lucky and just avoiding home-runs either.  Right-handers have a slash line of .130/.167/.283 against him.  That’s an OPS of .450.  Oh, and against lefties he has a .341 OPS against.  Pretty good.

In a small sample size, his OPS against has been better on the road then in home games as well.  So, his progress can’t be attributed to Safeco (although, no doubt the park would help if he became a starter).

With Furbush’s pitches he could be a lock-down reliever for the next 10 years.  I have no doubts about that but with the way he’s pitching right now he could be a good middle-of-the-rotation starter, which is way more valuable to the team.

There’s more on why Furbush would succeed after the jump, including pictures! Continue reading →

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by | June 16, 2012 · 7:20 pm

Some Random News

The Mariners are winning 2-0 right now, but they’ve done little else lately to make me want to write about them, at least at the big league level.  So, here’s a post about a whole bunch of other stuff!  By the way, did anyone make it to the Sonics rally?  None of us could make it, and I’m really regretting it.  It sounds like it was incredible.  If you were there, please put your thoughts in the comments.  Would love to hear a first hand account.  On to the news!

Mariners Draft

The Mariners have signed the majority of the draft picks they are likely to sign.  Of their top 11 picks, only two are unsigned.  One is Mike Zunino, the third pick overall.  He’s currently playing in the college world series and will likely sign immediately after it’s finished.  The other is 8th round 1B Nick Halamandaris (I think I spelled that right).  He’s likely to not sign and go to college at this point.

If you read any of our posts or any thing else about the draft, you’ve probably heard about the new bonus pools to which teams have to adhere.  Simply, each pick through round ten has a value attached to it, and teams have the sum total of their pick values to spread around to those guys.  This led to some strategic drafting, with some teams taking guys they knew they could sign for cheap who aren’t as talented, so that they would have more money for other guys.  The Mariners went the opposite way and took a lot of the better players that other teams were passing on.  Right now, the Mariners are also way over their budget right now.  That should be rectified when Zunino signs, because it’s expected he’ll sign for quite a bit under slot value.

It’s been interesting to watch their signing and draft strategy, but it’s not really important that you know any of that if you don’t care.  All that’s important is that the Mariners don’t spend more than 5% over their bonus pool, because then they start losing picks.  I would be absolutely shocked if they do that.  If you hear anyone panicking about this, just disregard them and realize that the Mariners know what they’re doing.  They can’t play baseball, but they can definitely handle a budget!

By the way, lots of the draft picks are playing in Everett, if you’re in the area.  Zunino should be higher up, depending on when he signs, but the Aquasox have an interesting roster this year.

The Minors

I’ll keep this short, but Danny Hultzen is essentially the most dominating pitcher for his level in all of organized baseball at the moment.  The other day he struggled a bit and still threw a shutout.  He’s starting his league all-star game and will likely go to Tacoma, if not Seattle, immediately after.  Nick Franklin is also having a pretty ridiculous year and could be at shortstop in Tacoma before long.  Taijuan Walker and James Paxton, the rest of the Big Three, are struggling and injured respectively, but it’s nothing to be too concerned about.  Not a lot of other pressing news at the moment.

Husky Recruiting

Husky football received a huge commitment today from Cali WR Darrell Daniels.  He’s 6’3″ 210 and the best WR on the west coast, according to Scout.com.  They have him as the 5th best WR in the country and 35th player overall, and he’ll be a 5-star guy when they update their rankings.  This is a huge pickup.  He’s similar to Kasen in size and prestige, but looks a little faster on his tape.  It’s a long way to signing day, but if Sark can hang onto him, he should be an immediate contributor in 2013.

Daniels was visiting this weekend with a few other top prospects, including DE Joe Mathis.  I’ve seen speculation that they could have another commitment or two before long, so we’ll keep you posted.  The Huskies now have 8 commits, and it’s shaping up to be one of their best classes in a while.  They added a 4-star QB, Troy Williams, last week, who is often compared to Keith Price, but more advanced coming out of high school.  Half of the group is from in-state, which is good, although the top two uncommitted guys, LBs Myles Jack and Danny Mattingly, from Bellevue and Spokane respectively, could be tough to land.  Still, the Huskies are in on a lot of big time guys from California as well and shouldn’t have any problem filling what’s expected to be a smaller class with elite talent.

-Matthew

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by | June 8, 2012 · 11:25 pm

Seattle Mariners Throw No-Hitter

This won’t be a long post.  At least, I don’t plan on writing for very long.  We don’t usually do game recaps here at the Good Guys blog, usually we just focus on bigger ideas and lately we’ve been focusing on prospects.  Tonight though is cause for a little something to be said.

If you haven’t heard, six Mariners pitchers combined to throw a no-hitter.  Kevin Millwood started and was awesome but then he came out with a groin injury at the start of the 7th inning.  It’s a shame he couldn’t keep going because, from what I saw (I did miss the first few innings), he had a real chance to do it all himself.  But, fate had him coming out and, for some reason, that just seems fitting.

These Mariners are different then most teams we’ve seen before.  In the last couple of years they’ve started with a mix of veterans and young players and went from there but this year they started with mostly young players.  The young players have shown promise, but they’ve taken their lumps as well.  They’ve taken more lumps than anything else.  Over the course of the last road trip the team became exciting though.  They struck for 21 runs.  They kept games close, even when they lost.  They came back and won.  The Mariners were actually improving and getting better.

I remember around the third or fourth year of the Tyrone Willingham era in UW football.  We’d go to the stadium every week and after giving him the benefit of the doubt for the first few years, it was easy to see that the coach wasn’t getting his team to improve each week.  In fact, they were getting worse every week.  This is exactly how the last few Mariner last few seasons have been.  This is the first time we’ve seen real improvement.  Sure, we’ve seen winning streaks but not definite improvement.

The Mariners will continue to take their lumps.  They’re still young and will suffer a few more losing streaks throughout the season.  Justin Smoak will go through a cold spell (in fact, he’s going through a mini one right now).  Michael Saunders won’t continue to look like Josh Hamilton.  Kevin Millwood won’t throw 6 innings of no-hit ball.  But, I’m betting that the good times will start to outweigh the bad.

For a second tonight, I thought about the M’s making a run at the playoffs this year.  It’s most likely not going to happen and that’s okay because I’m truly starting to believe in the future of this club.  I have for a while now, but it seems that all of Seattle is starting to buy in.  Tonight the Mariners, Tacoma (AAA), and Jackson (AA) gave up a total of 4 hits combined.  It’s not just happening on the major league level right now, there’s encouraging signs everywhere.  Are you starting to believe?  This team is growing up in front of our eyes and tonight was another major step in the right direction.  Go M’s!

Andrew

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by | June 5, 2012 · 10:12 pm

Mariners Draft Some Guys

In the last 2 days, the Seattle Mariners have drafted 16 players.  I almost wrote that they now have 16 players but, surely, some of these players will not sign with Seattle.  The Mariners have merely drafted the right to negotiate a contract with 16 new players who won’t likely reach the big leagues for at least another 2 years.  I’ve just explained to myself why most people don’t find the MLB draft interesting.

I still think it’s interesting and that’s why all of you readers have gotten about 5 posts about it.  Suckers.  It’s definitely more interesting than watching Blake Beavan tonight.  I’m ready for Erasmo or Hultzen to come up anytime.  Oh, right, this is supposed to be about the draft.  By most accounts the M’s had a good draft day.  Of course, we’ll be able to actually tell you in 5 years if this was a good draft but for now I’ll say that the M’s had a good process in who they picked according to most scouts. They may have to pay over-slot on a number of guys which would mean that a few of them may not sign, since the M’s don’t want to suffer the new penalties that go with going over their allotted budged for the draft.  That’s all a bit confusing, but the main gist of it is that the M’s have an amount, set by Major League Baseball, that they’re allowed to spend on their top 10 round picks.  This amount is the sum of the monetary value that each draft slot the team owns, is given.  If they go over that amount then they will suffer penalties (as severe as losing draft picks for next year).  I could go into more detail but I’d rather talk about the actual players.  I’ll give you a few sentences on each player and tell you if I think they’ll sign over-slot or under-slot, starting with first round pick and moving down.

1st round (3rd overall) – Mike Zunino (C), University of Florida

Matthew gave a bunch of links and wrote a bit about Zunino last night.  The consensus about Zunino seems to be that fans would have loved to have one of the high-upside teenagers (Buxton and Correa) but since they weren’t available, this was the best pick.  There aren’t hardly any concerns about Zunino having to move away from catcher, and while his bat isn’t at a superstar level it’s quite good.  This was a good pick.  If Zunino signs over-slot, it won’t be by much.  Most think he’ll be right at slot.

2nd round (64th overall) – Joe DeCarlo (SS), Garnet Valley HS, Pennsylvania

I wonder when the last time the M’s drafted someone from Pennsylvania was.  DeCarlo may stick at shortstop but could also be a candidate for third base.  He’s a pretty big guy (6-0, 205) who will probably grow some more since he’s only 18.  He’s got a good swing and is thought to have some power with that size.  This is the 4th year in a row the M’s have taken a shortstop with their 2nd pick.  I think that DeCarlo is more of a signability pick, as BA ranks him as their 287th prospect.  I imagine he will go under-slot.  He’s committed to Georgia but I’d be surprised if he didn’t sign.  Another thing to keep in mind is that, with the new rules on the money and signing bonuses, high-schoolers may be taken higher because they are more likely to go to college if they’re selected later and not given as big of a bonus.

3rd round (98th overall) – Edwin Diaz (P), Caguas Military HS, Puerto Rico

Diaz is right-handed pitcher with a mid-90’s fastball.  He has hit 98 MPH a few times.  He’s tall and skinny (6-3, 163) and is more of project pick.  He will need to develop better off-speed pitchers and his mechanics seem to be a little weird but his upside is high.  He’s ranked as the 75th prospect by BA (just to let you know, those rankings are just a few scouts opinions.  Don’t pay too much attention to them) and will probably sign just over his slot, if not right at it.

3rd round (126th overall) – Tyler Pike (P), Winter Haven HS, Florida

This pick was compensation for not signing last year’s 3rd rounder.  Pike, a lefty, may have the most signability concerns of these first 3 picks, but this is one of my favorite picks for the M’s.  He’s a lefty with a high 80’s to low 90’s fastball and a good change-up.  His velocity may go up as he grows.  He will have to work on his breaking pitch but many scouts call him crafty.  He was rated as the 94th prospect by Keith Law, and will likely go overslot.  He is committed to Florida State but if he signs, this will be a good pick.

4th round (131st overall) – Patrick Kivlehen (3B), Rutgers

Kivlehen has an interesting story.  He played on the Rutgers football team for 4 years and then tried out for the baseball team.  He quickly went on to be the Big East Player of the Year.  If the Mariners do have a trend in drafting college players, I’d say it’s that they draft based on results rather than projected upside.  That’s not to say that the college players they pick don’t have upside but it’s surprising how many of those guys have won conference players of the year.  Maybe it’s just me, and every team does this but it doesn’t seem like this.  I like this approach.  Anyway, Kivlehen can hit.  He had better numbers than Zunino this year.  I don’t know anything about his defense but surely he’s athletic since he was a defensive back at Rutgers.  That or he was just a really crappy defensive back.  I would guess Kivlehen will go right around slot, if not under.

5th round (161st overall) – Chris Taylor (SS), University of Virginia

The other knack the front office has had is drafting guys from the same college or area.  Sure enough, Taylor was shortstop on the team with Danny Hultzen, John Hicks, and Steven Proscia (all now current M’s farmhands). Taylor is a very good defensive shortstop with plus range and a strong-arm.  There are concerns about his bat.  He doesn’t have much power, although he’s hit a good amount of doubles.  If he can hit adequately, his defense will carry him.  I would guess that he would sign at about slot.

10 more picks to cover after the jump!  Thanks for coming this far!  Continue reading →

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by | June 4, 2012 · 6:51 pm

Mike Zunino and the Links

Here’s another quick post to tide any draft watchers over.  Sounds like Andrew will put up a recap tomorrow, once we get some more picks.  I’m planning a longer post that’ll go up tonight or tomorrow night.

My quick reaction to the Zunino pick: like everyone else, I was hoping for Buxton or Correa, in that order.  Once they were gone, Zunino was the best option in both overall package and likelihood to reach his potential.  He’s not super-exciting, at least not yet, but it’s a good and potentially great pick.  I especially like the light in which the pick paints the future Mariners lineup.  More on that later.

If you need more reading, there is no shortage of places to find it.  Some of my favorites from the local guys:

  • Here’s the first of a two-post scouting report on Zunino that went up before the draft on Seattle Sports Insider.  SSI always has a fresh perspective that is awfully accurate, more often than not.
  • Mariners Talk is sort of a sister site to SSI focused on the minors.  Spectator, the main writer, puts up great daily minors recaps and chimed in with a predraft overview.  Wondering why you should trust the Mariners’ scouting department? Start here.
  • For reviews of the pick, Jeff at Lookout Landing and Jay at USS Mariner are great.

All for now.  The compensation round is going right now, but the Mariners will make their next pick tomorrow morning at #64.  Tomorrow might be the most entertaining day of the draft.  There are still lots of good players out there, and we get to hear about them and learn about them all at once.

Also, please no one else compare this pick to Jeff Clement.  Mike Zunino is not Jeff Clement reincarnated.  He’s literally not.  Jeff Clement is still alive.  He hit for the cycle in AAA recently.  Just because they’re both catchers picked third overall doesn’t mean Zunino will be crappy.  They are completely unrelated.  They’re not even cousins.  No relation at all.  They’ve probably never even met each other.  Sure, Zunino might not make it, but it’s not because Clement put a permanent hex on catchers selected third overall.  Should the Seahawks never select a quarterback #2 overall because of Rick Mirer?  No! If you trip once walking through your front door, should you never go home again? Probably! Wait, I mean, no! I don’t know how else to say this, but anyone predicting failure for Zunino because of Clement is being dumb. Clement failed because he couldn’t catch and got hurt all the time and didn’t make enough contact.  If Zunino fails it will be for similar or different reasons, but mostly it will be because major league baseball is unbelievably hard.  Mike Zunino is not Jeff Clement.  That’s all.

-Matthew

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by | June 4, 2012 · 4:34 pm

Mariners Draft Mike Zunino

We’ll have more insight later, but in case you hadn’t heard the Mariners selected Mike Zunino 3rd overall a few minutes ago in the MLB draft.  Zunino is who the Mariners had been linked to for a while.  I think it’s a good pick, especially considering Buxton and Correa were off the board already.  Zunino is the most major-league ready position player in the draft and could be seen as early as 2014 in the majors.  We’ll have more on him later but this was for anyone who hadn’t seen.  Go M’s!

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