Hard! Hard! Haaarrd!!!

You know what sounds nice for when I get home from work tonight?  Watching some curling.  You would think that if FSN isn’t going to show the Husky game tonight, they could at least put on some occasional curling instead of the steady stream of shows no one cares about that is their regular programming. 

Take it to the house!!

-Matthew

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Husky/Cougar Prediction Thread

I thought we should try this again.  With the Huskies and the Cougars in action tonight, post your prediction for each game in the comments.  Joe did a great preview of the Husky-*uck game earlier this week and predicted a narrow UW victory.  I’m thinking along the same lines.  I’ll take the Huskies 80-73 over the Ducks.  I think Quincy will have a good last weekend and IT might be getting hot.  (Bold predictions I know, the grass might be green and the sun might be bright.)

As for the Cougars, I think they win.  For some reason I have this thought that WSU is better than they really are and so I pick them to win a lot.  I’ll take the Cougars by 5.  Lets say 66-61 WSU.  Casto and MBA continue to be the best big men in the pac! 

Post your predictions in the comments, I imagine yours will be closer than mine!

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Huskies Position Overviews – Running Back

Chris Polk, 5-11, 210, RS Soph.-  Polk had a fantastic year in 2009.  He set the Husky freshman record for rushing yards with 1,113.  This is no small feat considering UW’s young and under-developed offensive line last year.  Polk was a tough runner all year and fought for every single yard he got.  Polk may not have breakaway speed but before he’s done at Montlake I think he’ll be one of the best running backs ever to put on the Husky uniform.  He played most of last year hurt with a shoulder injury and also suffered an injury his first season.  This is one of the few flaws people can find in his game. 

What Polk needs to improve on this spring: Polk can’t improve anything because he won’t be practicing (in the last report I’ve heard anyway).  He had off-season shoulder surgery for the injury he suffered this season and will still be in rehab through the Spring.  Polk will be back in time for Fall camp at full strength.

Johri Fogerson, 61, 200, Jr.-  Fogerson was a very good receiver out of the backfield last year.  His screen-pass reception on the first drive against LSU was a thing of beauty.  About midseason Fogerson got sick and this really took away from his playing time.  By the end of the year he wasn’t much of a factor.

What Fogerson needs to improve on this spring:  The simple answer is his running ability.  Obviously the coaches didn’t feel that comfortable with Johri running the ball last year, only inserting him on passing downs.  If Fogerson can become a viable threat on the ground he could become a very good player for the Huskies.  I sometimes wonder if Johri should have stayed at safety, where he was his true freshman year, but he may develop into a very good running back.

Demitrius Bronson, 5-10, 206, Soph:  Bronson got some carries last year.  He became the backup when Fogerson became ill.  From what I’ve seen Bronson is similar to Polk.  He runs hard and right into people.  Last year he had a little trouble holding onto the ball.

What Bronson needs to improve on this spring:  Bronson is a good running back.  He came in last spring and impressed the coaches but he’s not going anywhere unless he stops fumbling.  Demitrius needs lots of carries this spring and needs to get knocked around a little, this will help him improve in protecting the football.  Bronson is a very capable backup that I think will progress in the spring.

Curtis Shaw, 5-10, 186, JR:  Shaw has had an interesting career.  Two years ago he left the team to deal with some family issues and last year he cam back only to play sparingly.  He is a speedster who just never broke into the rotation last year because Polk played so well.  From the times I’ve seen Shaw in practice he looks to be a very exciting player.  He lacks the grind it out mentality that Polk and Bronson have but has the potential to break a big run every time he carries it.

What Shaw needs to improve on this spring:  This spring is very important for Shaw.  If he doesn’t play well he could be left in the back of the rotation and may transfer.  I like what Shaw brings to the Husky offense but he needs to become more consistent if he wants to play.  He’s also had trouble holding on to the ball in his playing time, carries this spring will help that.

Deontae Cooper, 6-0, 191, FR:  This will be our first look at Cooper.  He is supposedly a straight ahead back with a little  speed.  Lots of people are pretty high on Cooper, saying that he could become Chris Polk’s backup this year.  I’m excited to see what he can do.

What Cooper needs to improve on this spring:  Cooper needs to adjust to the speed of the college game.  Like any incoming freshman, the speed of the game may overwhelm Cooper.  Carries this spring will counter that.

Jesse Callier, 5-11, 186, Fr:  Callier is the other freshman running back coming in with this class.  He has a lot of speed and led the state of California in rushing last year.  Some think Callier may end up as a defensive back before it’s all said and done.

What Callier needs to improve on this spring:  Callier has to show that he belongs on offense.  The coaches are giving him the opportunity on offense but moving him to defense is an attractive option.  If Callier comes in and has a nice spring those thoughts will go away.

Position Overview:  This is a solid position for the Huskies.  It could turn into a great position if a good backup emerges out of the group.  This is a very deep group and some attrition could occur along with some position changes.  It’s nice to see the UW have a good stable of backs that could lead to a dominant Husky running game over the next few years.  With the development of our offensive line, the future is bright for this position.  I think we’ll start to see that this spring.

I’ll get to fullbacks in a few days.  Thanks!

Andrew

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NOT Y2010M!

Carlos Silva

Yuniesky Betancourt

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Huskies vs. Ducks – Round 2

Thursday evening in Eugene, the Huskies will face their BFF’s, the Oregon Ducks. Everyone knows the two schools adore each other, should be a fun game. It’s the last time the Huskies will play at McArthur Court. Next season they’ll play at the Ducks’ new playground, Matthew Knight Arena (very popular among the folks in Oregon…).

Anyway, on to the game. In January I witnessed the Ducks defeat the Huskies 90-79 in what was clearly the Ducks best game of the year (after the win, they proceeded to lose ten of their next twelve, sealing Ernie Kent’s fate as a lame-duck coach (pun intended…)…) and probably the worst game the Huskies have played at home in at least two years. Malcolm Armstead and Michael Dunigan absolutely killed the Huskies with dribble drive penetration and toughness on the boards. Dunigan had 14 boards. Might-mouse Tajuan Porter was quiet in the first half, but came alive in the second from downtown. Oregon shot a sizzling 53% from the floor for the game, probably well over 60% in the second half. I came away thinking there was really no way Oregon was going to lose that game. Their whole team was in the zone. I give more credit to the Ducks for winning that game than for the Huskies losing.

On the UW side, it was clearly Matthew Bryan-Amaning’s worst game of the year. 21 minutes, 1point. Dunigan completely owned him all game physically. This game put MBA in Romar’s doghouse (again, pun intended), which I think has lead to MBA’s emergence over the past two month (more on that in a minute). The big three of Thomas (25pts, 11-12 FT), Pondexter (16pts, 6Rbs) and Overton (14pts) played well, I really have no complaints on the offensive end. Defensively, the Huskies were horrible. Armstead consistently drove past Overton and Thomas and had clean layups. None of the Huskies bigs got in his way and put him on his butt. Overall it was a sad defensive display by the Dawgs. Couple that with lights-out shooting by the Ducks, and you have the result.

No longer a black hole?

My how things have changed. Since that game, as I mentioned, the Ducks have fallen apart. There is no question in my mind Ernie Kent is gone. With a new arena coming next year, UO will look to make a splash with a new coach (Mark Few?). Because of this, the team has quit listening to Coach Kent. Granted they beat the LA schools this past weekend in LA, but they also swept them in Eugene earlier in the year. Can you say “favorable match-ups”? Therefore I don’t put too much into those wins. Against everyone else they have been lousy. At the same time, the Huskies have began to right the ship on the road, and MBA has emerged as a real threat on both ends of the floor. In fact I venture to guess he is the best offensive big man in the conference right now. No joke. He played extremely well against DeAngelo Casto, who leads the league in blocks, and has been consistently under control the past eight games or so. I haven’t been as hard on MBA as most people have been. I have always thought he has tremendous talent, he just needs to be coached up. In fact after the win at Wazzu Saturday, MBA credited none other then Jamaal “Junkyard Dawg” Williams for his post play improvements. I find it ironic and humorous that one offensive black hole is giving tips to another. (man, I loved Williams. Guy never saw a shot he didn’t like. He was a beast against UConn. Did I just mention the UConn game? DOH!!!).

Prediction? I see the Dawgs winning this one. They have confidence they can win on the road, they have the revenge factor working for them, and frankly they have more to play for. I expect MBA to play well, and look for Pondexter to bounce back after his first real down game of the year at Wazzu. This game, I feel, will come down to how MBA and Pondexter play on the block. Oregon’s guards are quick enough to keep up with Thomas and Overton. Maybe the trio of Suggs/Turner/Holiday will deliver some much needed offense, and bring it on defense. Frankly this game will come down to hustle, who wants it more on defense, and that’s where the Huskies will beat the Ducks. The only way Oregon wins this game is if they shoot lights out once again, and they have not proven in subsequent Pac-10 play they can replicate what they did in Seattle two months ago. The game will be in the 60’s, Huskies win a close one by 5.

-Joe

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Huskies Position Reviews – Quarterback

The quarterback position is bright for the Huskies, both in the present and future.  Here is the current depth chart at the position.

JAKE LOCKER!, RS SR., 6-3, 226-  You might already know how I think Jake is a superhero.  When Locker announced that he was returning the win expectancy for the Dawgs automatically jumped up by at least two.  In every game he plays in he will most likely be the best player on the field, based on physical skills.  The only downside to Jake is that he has struggled with injuries a little bit throughout his career here. 

What Jake needs to work on in the spring:  Jake obviously has the raw talent; that’s been obvious since his first year on campus.  But, it’s easy to forget this is only his second year in a new system.  His spring will be well spent getting an even better grasp on this pro-style offense.  He will also look to improve his accuracy.  Jake had a 58% completion percentage last year, I think he is capable of 65% and with a better grasp of the offense and improved accuracy he will get to this number.

Keith Price, RS FR., 6-1, 184-  Price has put on weight and is closer to 200 than his listed 184.  Price spent last year redshirting and working with the scout team.  With the departure of Ronnie Fouch, Price is in line to become the backup this fall.  Coaches love his athletic ability and have tweaked his throwing motion since he’s come into school. 

What Price needs to work on in the spring:  Price needs to develop his passing skills.  No one questions his running ability but if he’s going to fit into the Huskies offense he has to become an accurate  short and mid-range passer.  Price has to also be comfortable enough with the offense to be able to come in mid-game and run with the starters.  Price is at risk of getting overlooked, with Jake in front of him and Montana behind him.  This spring is a very important one for Keith Price.

Nick Montana, FR., 6-3, 191-  I went over the kind of player Montana is our recruiting overviews but I’ll give a quick review.  Montana is more of a pocket passer compared to Locker and Price.  He is a very good fit in Sark’s offensive system.  Montana will hopefully be redshirting this year so he can put on some weight and become familiar with the offense.  With the loss of Fouch it is quite possihble that Montana could see some action.

What Montana needs to work on in the spring:  Like all incoming freshman, Montana will need to get used to the speed of the college game.  This will be his first chance to run the offense and it won’t be without a few bumps in the road.  It’s great that Montana is here in the spring to get in repitition and to get comfortable.  I hope he will come in and blow us away while challenging Price for the backup position.

Position overview:  This is one of the Huskies best positions for one simple reason, number 10.  He’s in the top 5 quarterbacks in the nation and this spring will only help that as he gets more coaching.  The lack of depth at the position is a concern.  If Jake goes down, are either of the other guys ready step in?  I don’t know, but we’ll have a better understanding once practices are done for the spring.  I’m looking forward to seeing what these two younger guys can do.  Oh yeah, another goal for this spring: keep Jake healthy please!

I’ll be back with the running back overview in the next few days.  Thanks for reading!

Andrew 

 

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Quick UW-WSU Thoughts

Kind of a strange game.  Just a few quick thoughts:

  • Everything came together against the Huskies in the second half.  The Cougars came out with a lot more energy and seemed to get every bounce until late in the game, and questionable officiating gave MBA a third foul early that took away his aggressiveness, especially defending Casto.  I was never really worried they were going to lose, but it was just a matter of finding a spark to swing the momentum.
  • It looks like I was wrong about MBA.  He says he’s not doing anything differently, but he looks like he’s being more patient with the ball.  Who knows if it’ll carry into next season, but right now he looks like a potential all Pac-1o player next year.
  • Klay Thompson is really not a good player right now.  He seems like the prototypical streaky player who lets bad shooting affect the rest of his game.  He rallied a bit in the second half to make a few nice plays, but there was really no difference between him and Elston Turner last night, except that Thompson played a lot more minutes and missed a lot more shots.
  • I’m no expert on the Cougars roster, but I’d be a little worried if I were them.  I think Ken Bone’s a solid coach, but they don’t have too many difference makers right now.  Casto’s solid, but he doesn’t seem like a player who will ever be able to carry the team.  Thompson might, but he has to be more consistent and improve his demeanor and body language.  Reggie Moore is a solid point guard but nothing special, and I’m not sure he’s going to improve a lot on what he is now. They look like a team that will play hard and steal some games but lacks the talent to be a consistent threat in the conference.  I could be wrong, but I’ve seen nothing in their few games I’ve watched to tell me otherwise.
  • I wonder if Gaddy would have played much more in the second half if he hadn’t got that fourth foul.  I thought they badly needed him when they were struggling to score and Venoy was pretty well a non-factor.  Gaddy has a very settling effect and seems to get the team better shots.  Romar eventually pulled Venoy and let IT run the point, and then put Venoy back in once the tempo had picked up.  It was a good move, but he should have made it five minutes earlier.
  • Venoy has to learn how to get around screens better.  Teams that run a screen in the backcourt bringing the ball up take him totally out of his game.  Yesterday, he seemed to be watching for a screen along the three point line and would be caught out of position, letting Moore or whoever drive right by him.  Not his best game, although there’s no one I’d rather have shooting those late free throws.

Two more games.  The Huskies need to keep at least their third seed for the tournament so they’ll only face Cal in the title game, if at all.  That would be their only chance of an at-large bid, and even that is a tiny chance.  Go Dawgs!

-Matthew

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I hope this is a jinx but…Canada will win Gold

Sorry to be the pessimist, but as excited as I am for tomorrow’s gold medal hockey matchup between USA and Canada, I have fully prepared myself for a loss. I’ve sensed this re-match coming ever since last Sunday. Of course I want the Americans to duplicate their success against Canada, and I suppose luck could stay on their side one more time, but I just don’t see it. I don’t have compelling stats or great logic even to back it up, but I do have an unbroken formula for games like this which I will share later.

I realize the Americans have yet to trail for 1 minute of this tournament, but I’ve watched enough sports to know how championship games like this typically play out. It’s the same feeling I have watching UW play UCONN in the NCAA tournament, or the Mariners versus the Yankees in an ALCS, the Seahawks versus the Steelers in the Super Bowl, or on a more personal level, seeing my Bothell Cougars play for a state title. It’s a scene I am all too familiar with. Call it the Seattle sports fan syndrome. Now, you’re probably saying, wait, the Americans DID do it already, and just a week ago at that, so why not again? Yes, they did beat Canada 5-3, but was it for a championship? Nope. This past year I watched my underdog Bothell Cougars beat top ranked Skyline in a fantastic game, but a re-match loomed ahead. The second time around, Skyline was not surprised and they won when it counted most. I see Sunday’s contest following this script.

I know how fickle sports, and particularly hockey, can be. It’s like baseball in a lot of ways, in that on any given night, a goalie (or a pitcher in baseball) can almost single handedly win a game. I suppose Ryan Miller could just stop everything tomorrow, and he is certainly capable. But again, I go back to the pattern that sports has shown me for my 24 years of existence. And for this, I have a formula, which I have yet to see broken: MT+UD+CG=L

my team + underdog + championship game = LOSS

I have countless examples of this formula and it’s accuracy. ’95, ’00-Mariners; ’96-Sonics; ’02-USA hockey; ’05-Seahawks; ’06, ’09-Bothell. Each time my team was an underdog, (although the favored ’01 Mariners and ’07 Bothell teams also lost), each time they were playing for a conference championship or title game, and each time the result was a big L. I have seen some of my teams win conference championships (’96 Sonics, ’05 Seahawks, ’00 Husky football, and ’08 Husky basketball), but in each case my team was favored, so it was somewhat expected.

Canada is playing on home ice, with their confidence restored, a new goalie in net, and everything on the line, including sweet revenge over the Americans. They will win that game. If you disagree, at this point you might be yelling “Dan, what about 1980 at Lake Placid? What about the Mariners in 1995 ALDS? What about George Mason making the Final 4, or the Jets, Giants, or Saints beating all odds to win the Super Bowl?!!!!!” Sports are littered with Cinderella stories, and monumental upsets. I have personally witnessed some, such as Weber State over North Carolina at Key Arena, or more recently UW beating USC last year. But none of these under dogs fit the exact mold of my formula, other than the 1980 USA team, but I wasn’t born yet! So in closing, Go USA!!!!!…but be prepared and happy for a silver medal.

-Dan

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