Tag Archives: Seattle Mariners

by | May 1, 2013 · 12:07 pm

Dustin, He’s So Hot Right Now

The 2013 Mariners are annoyingly familiar.  They’re losing, for one, 12-17 at the moment.  The offense is giving itself chances to score runs, but it spits on those chances before grounding them weakly to shortstop.  Felix and Iwakuma are among the top five or so starters in the league right now, but the other three rotation spots have been inconsistent at best and horrible at worst.  The bullpen has bright spots, but it’s dealing with some injuries and the replacements have been spotty.  Injuries have also decimated the outfield. Michael Saunders just returned to the field after being one of the team’s best hitters early, and Michael Morse has apparently recovered from or at least learned to compensate for his broken finger, but Franklin Gutierrez is doing exactly what’s expected of him, with weird leg injuries halting then stopping his season.

Much of the lamenting has centered around the continued failure of the team’s supposed future, namely Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak and Jesus Montero.  I’m not going to argue for Smoak and Montero, at least not right now, but Ackley’s demise might be greatly misstated.  Or at least, his resurgence has been somewhat unnoticed.

Right now, Ackley is sitting on a .253/.284/.286 line. That’s not good, although the batting average is about 30 points higher than last year. His OPS+, which merely compares his OPS (.570) to league average, is 65.  League average is 100, so he’s been 35% worse than average.  

Now, time for fun with numbers and random cutoff points!  Ackley started this season as cold as Antarctica.  After seven games, he had two hits and two walks.  If we take out those seven games, he’s batting .310.  The OPS is still only .681, which isn’t good, but I’ll talk more about that below. If we look at roughly the last two weeks, starting April 17th, the line jumps to .383/.396/.447.  Those numbers over a full season would be phenomenal and beyond any hopes we could have.

Picking starting and ending points like I just did is risky analysis, so I make no guarantees on anything here.  It’s certainly possible Ackley is just on a hot streak and he will soon plummet Smoak-style.  It’s also possible the first week or two was a terrible cold streak and the .310 BA is more realistic.  Arbitrary date selection isn’t great, but it doesn’t automatically make a more hopeful interpretation illegitimate.

More interesting is the disparity in the stats.  The batting average is great, but his on-base and slugging percentages still lag.  Once the benchmark of offensive stats, batting average has fallen out of favor of late.  OBP and slugging are more comprehensive, and more advanced stats go even further.  Right now, everything Ackley is doing is batting average driven, and within that, it’s all singles-driven.  He has three walks and three doubles, and 23 singles.

The scouting report on Ackley has always been he’s an elite contact hitter with a great eye and solid gap power.  After fixing some mechanical issues dating back to last season, the contact skills seem to be on the rebound.  He’s hitting the ball hard to all fields again and rolling over on pitches less.  His plate discipline is hard to wade through.  His swing rates are roughly the same as ever, although he’s swinging at pitches outside of the zone a bit more.  That might be a good thing, as part of Ackley’s problem has been a stubborness in not swinging at borderline pitches.  It hasn’t worked out well, so a slightly more aggressive approach might help.  He’s making a little better contact in all facets this year, so something’s working.

The biggest concern with Ackley is the lack of both walks and power.  I would bet the two are related.  There’s no reason for pitchers to go outside the zone when they still have last year’s scouting report and he’s only hitting singles thus far.  Add in that Ackley makes contact with almost everything, and pitchers are going to have to work hard to walk him.  That’ll change if he keeps hitting like this, but the process would be helped greatly (as would his production) if more of his singles start going for extra bases.  Pitchers are going to challenge him until he does some damage.

Dustin Ackley is on a singles streak, which is great and gives hope for the future.  But he won’t continue to hit nearly .400, and he will need to do more than hit singles to really make an impact.  Walks and at least gap power need to be a part of the package.  I’m betting both will come soon. Ackley’s slowly putting his game back together. A barrage of doubles might signal the next and most important piece.

-Matthew

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by | April 10, 2013 · 2:20 pm

Remembering Erik Bedard

As the Mariners got stomped by the Astros last night, I ended up in a discussion with the other Good Guys about Erik Bedard.  Bedard is, of course, a former Mariner and as such, the cause of much disdain.  He is now a member of the Astros and was last night’s starting pitcher.

Bedard is not well-liked by Mariners fans.  I personally always liked him, but I can certainly see his shortcomings.  He was divisive and frustrating at his best.  The argument against generally centers on four points:

  1. He was the object of a now horrific trade, where the Mariners gave up Adam Jones and more for Bedard before the 2008 season.
  2. He was constantly injured, losing large chunks of every season he played in Seattle.
  3. His dealings with the media were short and brusque, often given in one word answers. He often came across as a smug, rude jerk.
  4. He obtained a reputation of being unable to pitch deep into games, which, combined with the injuries, led to a reputation of frailty and disinterest.

The first point is indisputable but completely out of Bedard’s control.  The trade was not well liked at the time, but it would have been okay had Bedard stayed on the field. He was a legitimately excellent pitcher when he was on the mound.  Unfortunately, that rarely happened.  He was hurt early and often, missing time in each of the four seasons he spent in Seattle.

With most former players, an injury history like that would be the main memory, but judging by Twitter and blog comments during last night’s game, points three and four above have had a more lasting impression.  The issues with the media were real. He seemed unwilling to speak at any length, especially in response to questions he deemed unnecessary.  It’s understandable if fans were turned off by that.  It personally never bothered me, and I doubt it would have made much impact if he had been good on the field.  For what it’s worth, he was never considered or rumored to be a bad teammate.  Watching him in the dugout, he seemed like a good guy who was liked by his teammates.  That’s hardly conclusive data, but it’s something that runs extremely contrary to the popular narrative.  He also signed with the Mariners for virtually nothing after his first two years, out of loyalty for the way they stood by him during his first two injury-plagued years. Dealing with the media was not his strong suit, but he appeared to be far from a bad guy or a clubhouse cancer.

The reputation for not lasting deep in games is a little more difficult to wade through.  From what I remember, the reputation came from an inability to get through seven innings early in his Mariners career, combined with some comments he made saying that he was essentially a 100-pitch pitcher.  I’m going off memory here, so I apologize if I’m off slightly.  In my memory, the comments were more nuanced than simply saying he could only throw 100 pitches per start.  I remember him saying that he was at his best for 100 pitches, not that he would only throw 100.

Incidentally, this is true for nearly every pitcher in the history of baseball. Hardly anyone is especially good after 90-100 pitches.  A good rule of thumb is that once a pitcher reaches that range or faces the line-up for a fourth time that day, it’s probably time to think about getting him out of there.  There are exceptions, of course, but Bedard was just saying what is universally true. Incidentally, other than a couple of starts where he left early for injury or ineffectiveness, Bedard threw 6-8 innings in most starts that first year. He threw about the same innings as anyone else.

What Bedard did was put his limitations into words, and that’s not something we want out of our athletes.  However unspoken or unrecognized, there’s a level of hero worship with our favorite athletes.  We expect them to do what we can’t, and for good reason. Professional and college athletes can do ridiculous things. The worst player at any point in any of the major sports leagues is one of the greatest athletes to ever walk the earth. I was a moderately decent high school baseball player, but I would have no more luck pitching or hitting against a major leaguer than would my two-year-old nephew. Their talent is so far above anything we can imagine, we expect consistent greatness and lose touch with the limits of their ability.

We want our athletes to go to places we can’t reach. We don’t want to see them ever give up. We know that playing through an injury might actually hurt the team, but we still want to see them out there until their bodies actually prevent them from playing. We don’t want to see a pitcher leave the game until he’s failed.  There’s something noble in giving until there’s nothing left, in leaving only when failure of the body commands it.  It may not be smart, but it resonates with those of us who would have given up days ago.

Erik Bedard knew his limitations, and in many ways he was likely smarter for recognizing and dealing with them.  His problem, as it often was for Bedard, was in letting the rest of us in on the secret.  Communication was never his strong suit.  Pitching was, but since his body never let him do that, a promising career ended as nothing but disappointment.

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A few Mariners notes after the jump! Continue reading →

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by | March 23, 2013 · 11:44 am

Garland’s Gone and Other Stuff

Baseball season is just over a week away, and if that doesn’t make you happy, you’re probably not a baseball fan.  The Mariners have had an uneventful spring training.  The roster, barring any last minute injuries or shake-ups, will be as projected.  The two open spots, back of the rotation and last position player, aren’t decided, but the rotation is a man closer to finalization.

Jon Garland came to camp as a non-roster invitee after missing last season with arm issues.  He was a slightly above-average starter before his injuries, so it was widely assumed that if he looked anything like he used to, he would take one of the two open spots.  He’s been decent but not terribly impressive all camp, but he was still expected to make the team.  Complicating matters was a clause in Garland’s contract allowing him to leave the Mariners yesterday if he wanted.  Basically, if the Mariners weren’t going to promise him a rotation spot, he was going to leave.  Much to the media’s surprise, that’s exactly what happened.  It’s a good reminder that, as excellent as much of the media following the Mariners is, no one knows what the Mariners will do except Jack Zduriencik, and he’s not telling anyone before he has to.

The move’s implications for this season are moderate.  Garland didn’t project to be great or terrible.  League-average or slightly better was probably the realistic best-case scenario.  His replacements are less predictable but similarly capable and likely to be in the same performance vicinity.  There appear to be four pitchers in the running for those two spots:

  •  Jeremy Bonderman is a veteran in a position similar to Garland’s.  I’d be shocked if he made the rotation.  I’m guessing the Mariners hope he will take an assignment to the minor leagues, where he can continue to build up arm strength after injury and a lot of time off.  He’d then be good depth for injuries or poor performance this summer.  He may decide to retire rather than go to Tacoma, though.
  • Blake Beavan is quite familiar to Mariner fans.  He might be slightly less recognizable this season with a revamped delivery aiming to mimic Doug Fister’s.  Seattle Sports Insider has a great breakdown of the windup and potential implications (start here).  I don’t particularly like watching Beavan pitch, but he’s a fairly reliable guy for the back of the rotation, and he’s still only 24.  Age is not a guarantee of improvement, but when combined with the revamped delivery, I’m open to seeing what he can do for a few months at least.
  • Erasmo Ramirez should be a lock for a spot, in my opinion.  He has the best stuff of the three mentioned thus far, excellent command, and good major league performance at the end of last season.  I don’t know if the Mariners have penciled him in yet, but I’d be curious to know their reasons if they haven’t.
  • Brandon Maurer is this year’s camp phenom.  After battling injuries early in his career, he stayed healthy at Double-A last year and showed enough ability and talent to jump into the conversation with his more ballyhooed rotation-mates (Hultzen, Walker, Paxton).  To some degree, I would say he’s a guy who does many things well without anything especially standing out.  He throws low- to mid-90s, has three other solid or better pitches, and shows good command.  Think Felix, on a much, much smaller scale.  He could probably succeed now, but given his lack of experience at even Triple-A and that past injury history, I probably would start him in Tacoma.  I’m kind of hoping the Mariners feel differently, however, because it’d be fun to see what he can do.

So, barring a big surprise, the opening day rotation will be Felix, Iwakuma, Joe Saunders, and two of the above.  That’s a decent rotation with a chance to be better.  Or it could be worse, if all of the kids fall flat on their faces.  That’s why the Garland decision is somewhat fascinating.  It’s entirely possible that Garland would have/will outperform at least one of the rotation slots.  Maybe, maybe not, but I’d bet on it.

So why is it good the Mariners let him go?  Because it looks like they’re ready to let the young talent they’ve been stockpiling make its presence known.  There is no guarantee Maurer, Ramirez and all of the guys still in the minors will be able to lead the Mariners to prominence.  If they can’t though, it’s going to mean a complete change of plans and likely management.  The future is roped to the Mariners’ youngsters, those both in the majors and minors.  It’s time to give them a shot.

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That other roster spot still looks life a fight between outfielders Jason Bay and Casper Wells.  Opinions are somewhat split on this one, including between the Good Guys.  The case for each:

  • Bay is not far removed from being an all-star, and is still a better hitter than Wells.  He’s unlikely to reach his 2009 numbers again, but it wouldn’t surprise to see him become a good spot starter or better.  He’s a solid defensive outfielder.
  • Wells is a better defender who can legitimately play center field.  He’s third on the depth chart at that position, but given that one of those ahead of him is Franklin Gutierrez, it’s a real consideration.  He has power and is young enough to project some improvement.  He’s also under team control for as long as the Mariners could conceivably want him.

Some people think that Wells could be a solid starter if given a shot.  Personally, I don’t see it.  I think he’s too limited as a hitter.  The center field issue is legitimate, but to me it’s not a huge deal.  If it comes to it, the Mariners can track down a center fielder for a while.  They have minor league options who could fill in for a couple of weeks in a pinch.  It’s not ideal, but to me, it’s not worth getting worked up about it if they choose Bay over Wells.  Wells offers security, Bay offers upside.  The Mariners appear to be favoring Bay, but as the Garland decision shows, we won’t know until one of them gets cut.

That’s about it for news right now.  Most of the people still in camp either have a spot or are just depth.  The only questionable position left is the bullpen, but it looks like Kameron Loe will win the last spot with Josh Kinney out for a while.  The most surprising player left in camp might be Brad Miller, the sweet-hitting shortstop who ended the year in double-A.  I don’t think there’s any way he makes the team, but that he’s lasted this long shows how highly the team thinks of him.  If he can improve his defense, he could take Brendan Ryan’s spot as soon as a year from now.

The season starts a week from Monday in Oakland, of course.  The Mariners are doing a cool open house at Safeco that night, where fans can come, see the changes to the stadium, and watch the game on the monstrous new scoreboard screen.  I think doors open at 6:00, and I believe parking is free if you get there in time.

-Matthew

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by | March 1, 2013 · 12:45 am

2013 AL West Team

Unlike some college sports, pro sports don’t come out with pre-season 1st and 2nd teams, but if the AL West had its pre-season team, this is how I think it would shake out. Clearly this is not a perfect method to predicting the AL West in 2013, and by season’s end the 1st and 2nd team selections will look different. But, it does provide a snapshot of how the division stacks up. My selection process looks at last year’s performance as well as potential this upcoming year, and projected impact/playing time. Some of the picks are obvious and others are less obvious, so of course I’d love to hear your thoughts too.

2013 AL West

A couple bullets:

  • It is hard to find much separation at the top between Oakland, Texas, and LAA. All 3 have playoff potential, but from this breakdown I would also suggest the Mariners are closer to the good teams in the division, rather than the bad (Houston).
  • Say what you want about Oakland’s 2012 season being an anomolye, but it’s hard to criticize the roster Billy Beane has been assembled this year. The A’s don’t have a lot of star power but they are solid at every position, and have a ton of depth, which will surely be an asset at some point.
  • The positions that were hardest to find a clear cut 1st and 2nd team selection were Catcher, DH, and the 2nd team OFs and Starting Ps. At catcher, Montero projects to have the most playing time and potential, so I gave him the honors. You could make a case for Jaso and Pierzynski too. The same is true between Kendrys Morales, Berkman, and Trumbo, but the numbers suggest Morales (when healthy) is the best option in the group. David Murphy is a nice player, as is Coco Crisp, Franklin Gutierrez, and Chris Young. Take your pick, I went with Murhpy. Starting pitching was a bit of a toss up to when you start picking the 8th-10th best in the AL West. I tried hard to justify an Astro but simply could not. Iwakuma was my 10th selection, but it could have easily gone to Derek Holland, Jason Vargas, or really any Oakland starter.
  • In order to visually quantify the separation between teams based on these picks, I’ve awarded 2 points for a 1st team selection, and 1 point for a 2nd team selection. Here’s how it shakes out on a fancy bar graph.

    graph

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by | December 28, 2012 · 4:57 pm

The Rebuilding Process, Year 5

One year ago I asked your reaction following Prince signing in Detroit. One year later, I’m curious what your take is on Josh Hamilton signing with a division foe, for nearly $100 million less than Prince got.

This is my 5th installment in a series of posts I’ve done recapping and forecasting the Mariners Rebuilding Process, since Jack Z took over as GM. You can find the prior posts here: Years 1 and 2 Year 3 Year 4

Let’s recap the 5 year rebuild plan I laid out in October 2008.

    THE BLUEPRINT

2009, Year 1: Shed dead weight, Begin overhauling the farm
Summary: Traded Putz for Guti, Carp, Vargas, and managed to get rid of Silva, Betancourt, and Johjima, while also using 3 of first 5 picks on Ackley, Franklin, Seager.
Grade: A+

2010, Year 2: Shed dead weight, Continue building the farm (and lock up Felix)
Summary: Signed Griffey and Sweeney, locked up Felix and acquired Cliff Lee, then swapped him for Smoak. Could have done without the Morrow trade and of course the Figgins contract. Selected Walker, Paxton, Pryor in rounds 1, 4, 5.
Grade: B-

2011, Year 3: Bring the youth up, Evaluate potential, Acquire more young talent
Summary: Hired Wedge, traded for Brendan Ryan, picked up Wilhelmson at a local bar, and signed low cost vets such as Cust, Olivo, Kennedy. Fielded an even mix of youth and vets, but loads of young talent in the pipeline for the first time in forever. At the deadline traded Fister for Furbush and Wells. Hultzen chosen with #2 pick.
Grade: B

2012, Year 4: continue youth movement, achieve .500 record
Summary: Swapped Pineda for Montero and made some shrewd acquistions in Jaso, Iwakuma, Luetge, Millwood, Perez, then saw a young roster come up 6 games short of .500, while improving by 8 games from prior season. Picked Mike Zunino #3 overall.
Grade: A

2013, Year 5: add 1-2 big pieces, contend for playoffs
Summary: Thus far we’ve seen a few low cost signings in Bay, Ibanez, Bonderman, and a 1 for 1 swap of Vargas-Morales.
Grade: ???

I’ve said this before, but in 4 1/2 years on the job, Bill Bavasi set this organization back 5 years, minimum. Last year I stated

“For the first time on Jack’s watch, I think the on field W/L record is important. .500 ball is a reasonable expectation this year, which would be a welcomed site for our eyes.”

Well, The M’s flirted with .500 in 2012 and showed noticeable improvement, albeit without much offense yet again. Entering year 5 the talk of laying the foundation and replenishing the system should be over, and playoff contention ought to be close. Zduriencik has said as much if you’ve heard any of his recent interviews.

If the blueprint holds form, the M’s will be adding 1-2 big pieces this offseason, and assembling a playoff capable team in 2013. This sounds great but it is nearly January and almost all the big name free agents have signed elsewhere, and the only acquisitions Seattle has made are Robert Andino, Jason Bay, Raul Ibanez, and a swap of Jason Vargas for Kendrys Morales. Not exactly blockbuster moves capable of propelling the M’s from 75 wins into contention. I suppose the big moves we hoped for are still possible if Jack can, for example, land Justin Upton and Michael Bourn, and add a veteran pitcher to round out the rotation. That would certainly be a competitive team, but is that the best route to take?

Given how the AL West is shaping up, it may be best to hang onto the prospects, add a couple decent pieces, and shoot for a respectable 80-85 wins in 2013, while waiting until next year to make the big splash. I don’t see a scenario, at this point, for the M’s to overtake Texas or Anaheim in 2013, and probably not Oakland either. So why go all in? I’m not suggesting Seattle give up any hopes they had for next year, just because the division rivals are pulling away, but I don’t want the M’s to mortgage the future to field a better team next year, but one that cannot be sustained.

Keeping a positive trajectory is crucial next year, seeing an improved offense is also important, but that’s about all we can reasonably expect in 2013. This puts real contention off until next year, and adds a year to the original 5 year blueprint, but taking the path that leads to sustained success is what is most important. We’ve seen the Washington Nationals do this, and Tampa Bay also, and with much less money. It may not be popular, given the fractured fan base, plummeting attendance, and a decade of bad baseball, but Seattle has never given a player a $100 million contract, and unless it is a Felix extension, I don’t see it happening for at least another year. And surprisingly, I’m fine with that.

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by | December 5, 2012 · 12:28 pm

Mariners Sign Jason Bay

If it were about three years ago, that headline would have been really exciting.  Not so much now.  Of course, if the Mariners would have signed Bay three years ago, they would likely have been the ones eating $21 million to let Bay test free agency this year.

It’s not official, but the Mariners have signed Jason Bay, pending a physical.  No terms have been released, but reportedly it’s a one year deal for $3 million (Edit- there’s now news that this is false and it’s for less than $1 mil. No official news, so just wait and see).  Some background, if you need it: Bay is an outfielder from British Columbia who was one of the top free agents coming off the 2009 season.  The Mariners were reportedly interested in him then, and he in them, but the Mets blew everyone away with a 4 year, $66 million deal.  Bay promptly fell apart.  He was their Chone Figgins, at nearly twice the money.  After this past season, Bay and the Mets renegotiated his contract so that some of the money he is owed for this year is deferred, and then the Mets granted him free agency.  Basically, they declared him a lost cause, changed his contract so that they have a little money to spend this year, and gave up on Bay.

The Mariners taking a chance on Bay seemed a foregone conclusion, so this signing should come as no surprise.  In his prime, he was a power-hitting outfielder, and if you haven’t noticed, the Mariners are searching incredibly hard for one of those.  Bay is a long way from his prime, and I, along with nearly everyone else, am skeptical he’ll ever get back to even close his previous level.  I’d say the odds are much better that he doesn’t last past April than that he has a major impact for the Mariners.  Still, there’s a chance that he’ll feel rejuvenated coming back home and the Mariners get a cheap contributor. Unlikely, but not impossible.

I’ve already heard grumbling about the size of the contract.  It’s definitely more than I expected, but it’s nothing to worry about.  It’s only a one year deal, and that amount isn’t going to prevent them from cutting him if he has nothing.  It’s no big deal.  If you’re concerned about this preventing the Mariners from acquiring a better bat, don’t be.  They still have plenty of money.  And please don’t react like this is the only move they’re going to make.  There will be plenty of people saying, “Stupid Mariners, cheap as usual. They think they can bring in a washed up local guy and call it good.”  If they haven’t picked up anyone else by the start of the season, complain all you want, but they are working hard to bring in someone else.  They are literally talking to or about every hitter who’s even potentially available.  If they can find someone better to bring in they, they’ll get him.  This is just the move that could be made right now.

In summary, Jason Bay is a lottery ticket.  He might help, but probably won’t.  The Mariners know this just as well as we do.  The fact that they thought it worth taking a chance on Bay is a good sign.  The contract is no big deal, even if he never plays an inning in Seattle.  The winter meetings are still going, so I’ll post something if anything happens, and I’ll try to do a recap tonight or tomorrow if I get the chance.  For now, follow MLB Trade Rumors for all the M’s news compiled in one easy spot.  Believe big!

-Matthew

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by | November 25, 2012 · 6:09 pm

Mariners Off-season Update

Everything football and basketball related is too depressing to write about at the moment, so let’s talk Mariners.  It’s been a long time since the Mariners were the least depressing of the Seattle sports teams.  Helps that they haven’t played a game in two months.

So far, the off-season has been pretty uneventful.  There have been few actual moves, and most of those have been to address roster issues and limits.  That doesn’t mean they lack excitement, however, because Chone Figgins is gone!  The team waived him, meaning they’ll eat the remaining $8 million or so on his contract and he’ll be free to play with anyone who will take him.  They’ve tried to trade him literally for years and no one would bite, so this is the next best thing.  They were going to have to pay him either way, but at least now they have the roster spot to (hopefully) bring in a better player.  No offense to Figgins personally, but I’m so glad he’s gone, and he probably is too.  He had no role on the team and was sucking the air out of the fanbase to some extent.  Here’s to moving forward.

The only other move of note was a trade that sent OF Trayvon Robinson to Baltimore for infielder Robert Andino.  Andino plays a solid shortstop along with pretty much every other position and will likely be the primary back-up infielder for Seattle next year.  He doesn’t hit much, but that’s pretty standard for utility infielders.  Some people are upset to see Trayvon go, but it’s one of those unavoidable moves I wrote about here.  The Mariners were going to lose him if he didn’t make the team this spring, and that wasn’t likely to happen.  It wouldn’t shock me if Robinson turns into a solid player three or four years down the road, but the Mariners can’t keep a below-average player on the roster that long, waiting for him to blossom.  That’s just the way it goes. When there’s no guarantee he ever gets better, sometimes you have to move on. Continue reading →

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by | October 21, 2012 · 5:16 pm

What The Mariners Need To Do

As I noted last week, it’s hard to know what the Mariners are planning this offseason.  Payroll is the big question pertaining to the team on the field.  According to Cot’s, they currently only have about $40 million on the books for 2013, but that only accounts for four players (one of whom hopefully won’t be on the roster–Chone Figgins), Danny Hultzen’s draft contract and a Miguel Olivo buyout.  When arbitration raises and filling out the remaining roster spots are considered, I’ve heard $60 million as a likely number.  I can’t imagine they plan to spend just $60 million on payroll next year.  If they do, I will not be happy.  That would be ridiculous, but unfortunately not impossible or even particularly surprising.

The best bet is for the payroll to rise to the neighborhood of $85 million, where it was to start 2012.  That’s no guarantee, but I would expect it in that range.  All of this speculation serves no real purpose, except to illustrate that they could potentially have a lot of money to spend, as well as the situation’s uncertainty.  How large that amount is will determine the path they take this offseason.  2013 could bring a nearly identical team to 2012, give or take a bargain veteran.  It could also bring a couple of major additions through free agency or trade.  I don’t expect the Mariners will make any kind of announcement about their 2013 payroll, for negotiating purposes, so fans won’t likely know what they’re going to do until rumors spread or something happens.

All that said, there are moves the Mariners need to make and holes they need to fill.  They’ve already made a great first move with the decision to bring in the fences.  It’s difficult to ascertain the immediate effect of the change, but count me as one who thinks it could be huge.  Even if it just gives the young hitters a little more confidence and leads to more exciting games, that’s enough for me.

Here are a few more moves that I would like to see happen. Continue reading →

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