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About dpscansen

I'm just a mid-20's guy who cares about faith, family, and sports. I do my best to keep it in that order...
by | April 25, 2012 · 10:32 pm

NFL Draft–The 12th Pick

Tomorrow night, 32 players will be drafted into the NFL, and most will start for their respective teams in 2012. In the span of 3 days, every team will select a number of players that may make an immediate impact. This is what makes the NFL draft so unique, so exciting. The NFL draft is a 3 day bonanza, and although similar drafts happen in all pro sports, none compares to the NFL. So, how might things shape up for the hometown Hawks, specifically with the 12th pick?

Seahawks Top Needs-DE, LB

A cliché you hear around draft time is “take the best player available.” In other words, when you are on the clock, take the guy with the highest grade on your big board. I think some of this is posturing by teams because it sounds good to pick the guy with the highest overall grade, but the reality is teams usually draft to fill needs. For the Seahawks, most agree the “pressing” need is finding a stud to pressure the QB. For this reason, most mockers have the Hawks taking a defensive end with the 12th pick. That may well be what we see happen tomorrow night, and I’d be excited. But let’s understand the many layers that play into a pick, particularly a 1st round selection.

First, everything depends on what happens in picks 1-11. At this point, I’d guess Schneider and Carroll have zoomed in on 2-3 players, depending on how things shake out. In addition to this uncertainty, every draft is different in terms of how deep it is at specific positions, how many elite players there are, and whether or not a trade partner might exist. It’s easy to say the Seahawks need a lineabacker after Hawthorne signed with the Saints, so naturally this could be addressed with the 12th pick. But what if Seattle has graded the top 3 LBs 91, 89, 88, and they are confident one will be there with the 43rd pick. Why use the 12th pick on the 91 grade, when you can get the 88 or 89 in the 2nd round?

Back to the 2-3 players JS/PC have in mind. Believe it or not, the Good Guys don’t actually have access to the Seahawks war room, so I’ve not yet seen their big board. This is, therefore, speculation on my part.

Plan A-Ryan Tannehill. Danny O’Neill and Peter King have both insisted that if Tannehill were available with the 12th pick, Seattle would take him in a flash. This is hard for some fans to understand, in light of the Matt Flynn signing, but I’m buying it. It’s probably 50/50 whether Flynn will turn into a franchise QB, so Tannehill provides insurance if Flynn sucks. He could sit for a couple years, then either take over, or be trade bait. He has a ton of upside, similar to Jake Locker in many ways. The problem is, Tannehill seems destined for Miami, who holds the 8th pick.
Plan B-Fletcher Cox. The top D-lineman in the draft would be a heck of a fit in Seattle. Cox is not a speed rusher, but he is a versatile, 3 technique that could would be an immediate upgrade. There is a chance Cox slides to 12, but in all likelihood, he, like Tannehill, will go in the top 10.

    Plan C-The pick…Quinton Coples.

This is plan C, so if a trade can be made here, it would make sense. Assuming the Hawks make a selection, Coples is a freak and a guy Carroll might be enamored with. It’s hard not to compare Coples to Julius Peppers. He’s 6-6, 285 lbs, and a Tarheel. For awhile, Coples was graded by many as the top defensive player in the draft. There are concerns about his motor, that he takes plays off. Pete may just see this as a challenge.

It could be that PC/JS like South Carolina’s Melvin Ingram, the fast rising Chandler Jones, Nick Perry, Courtney Upshaw, or some other d-end ahead of Coples. Or maybe PC/JS view linebacker as the greater need, and Luke Kuechly and Dont’a Hightower are guys they love. That would make sense too, but given the difficulty to find top defensive ends, and the success PC/JS had finding KJ Wright in the 4th round last year, finding a bookend pass rusher makes a ton of sense here. Or perhaps its the offense that Seattle is bound to improve at #12. Keep in mind, the Hawks defense ranked 5th in points per possession last year, while the offense ranked 27th in the same category. Awe, the intrigue of the NFL draft. Tomorrow, we finally get answers, not rumors and mockers.

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by | April 19, 2012 · 12:14 pm

Are the M’s an 80 Win Team?

The Mariners are only 13 games, or 8% into their 2012 campaign. It is hard to make many conclusions yet, other than the obvious ones like Ackley is a budding star, and Olivo should be in another profession. Again, its just too soon to guess what the remaining 92% of this year will hold. But already we are starting to see the identity of this team, the good and the bad. In short, I like what I see. I’ll take it one step further and suggest, albeit prematurely, that this could well be a team that wins 80 games, just as I had hoped when I wrote about my expectations for Year 4 of this rebuilding process.

My optimism is rooted in 3 observations.

1-The top of the order has been solid. Figgins, Ackley, and Ichiro are all stinging the ball with consistency. Hitting the ball hard does not guarantee results, but it means the batter is not being fooled, he is using is lower half to generate power, and he’s getting the barrel on the ball. I’m seeing this out of all 3 guys, which is extremely encouraging.
2-The starting pitching is just fine. All 5 guys have had at least 1 great outing, and only twice has a starter been pulled before the 5th inning. I was especially worried about the back of the rotation, and my fears still remain, but I think our 3-5 guys will be alright, at least until help arrives in the summer…Paxton! Hultzen! The exception may be Millwood, who I could see getting torched on any given day.
3-No insurmountable weaknesses. If the M’s win 80 games, it can’t have a glaring weakness. Okay, so the offensive woes we’ve watched for the past years have not been totally solved. The M’s are still 14th in average and OBP in the AL, but they are 14th in MLB for runs, and that’s what counts. The offense is still the single biggest reason why this team won’t contend for the playoffs, but when Carp returns and the weather warms up, this is a middle of the league line-up. The rotation, defense, and bullpen are also not glaring weaknesses.

Most of us would be pleased with 80 wins, maybe even ecstatic, given the 67 and 61 win Mariner teams of the past 2 seasons. Others would say 80 wins is not a playoff team, therefore not relevant. These are mainly casual fans, but their perception matters a ton to the M’s, because these are the bandwagon fans that fill Safeco when the team is winning. Side note: M’s average attendance is 22,110 according to ESPN, which ranks 28 out of 30 teams. Oakland is ahead of us, averaging 24,630 but I’m assuming that counts the Japan games which Oakland was the home team. Anyways, the point is, 80 wins does not mean you are a good team, but it also does not mean you a bad team. For me, that would be progress, and more importantly, it would keep the plan on track to contend as soon as next year. It’s always next year isn’t it?!

Finally, we can turn on ROOT each night and watch a young, promising Mariner team. This team is not build on sand like the ’08 squad, nor are they world beaters. If you ask me (and admittingly I’m a homer), they are an 80 win team on the rise. So go Enjoy Felix tonight, seriously, tickets are dirt cheap. Just bought me a seat for $20, 12 rows up behind first base. You might see me when a lefty comes to bat, I’ll be the guy drinking the Mariner Kool-Aid!

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by | April 12, 2012 · 9:13 am

Mariners Win in Texas, Which Does Not Usually Happen

We don’t do game recaps at the GGS Blog, because quite honestly it takes a huge committment, and when Jeff Sullivan at http://www.lookoutlanding.com writes pure gold after every Mariners game, why try to top that? But after last night’s win, I have to do a mini recap because all things considered, it may be the sweetest victory we have all year.

Entering the 8th inning, down 3-0, the Mariners win expectancy was around 8% according to gamecast. Overcoming those odds is hard enough, but to do so in Texas where you’ve won once in the past dozen games, against perhaps the best team in baseball, that win expectancy may as well been 1%. But, the M’s got a run in the 8th, and in the 9th a single by Smoak, doubles by Seager and Saunders, and finally a bloop single by Jaso after a gutsy stolen base, was the recipe for 3 runs and an improbable 4-3 win was ours after BLT shut em’ down in the 9th.

Mariners Win!

Today the Rangers and M’s meet again. Once again, Texas will have the edge in nearly every category. A win today would mean a 2-2 split and I’d probably do something drastic like buy a Figgins jersey. Either way, the M’s will finally arrive in Seattle tonight, with no worse than a 4-4 record. This is pretty great considering those 8 games were in 3 time zones, spread across 2 weeks. This team intrigues me, which I was expecting, and because it is still only April, I can’t resist thoughts of contending into the summer. I doubt this will happen, and some fans will hit the point where investing their time, money, and emotions is not worth following a .500 or below team, but I don’t see myself losing full interest, because the youth is just so dang fun to watch. This statement will upset my wife, who is way too rational to get excited about 1 game in a 162 game season. To her I say enjoy your hockey, where half the league makes the playoffs and yet they still play 82 regular season games. And then she’s like, ya well baseball is boring, and I’m like well at least its played outside! Thats typically how it goes 🙂

Lastly, there aren’t many guys on my bad list right now, although it doesn’t take much to get on it quickly. Currently, Miguel Olivo has a permanent spot reserved, Chone Figgins is working his way off it, and Brendan Ryan is somewhere in between. Steve Delabar gave up back to back jacks last night, but come on, its Delabar, you have to be cold to have him on your bad list. Back to Olivo, why is he on this team? I understand he led the team with 19 HR last year, and he has good repoire with the pitchers, but lets quickly review who Miguel Olivo is at this point. He is a 33 year old .220 hitter with zero plate discipline, bad defense, and in the final year of his contract. He’s a nice guy and all, but should he be occupying a spot on this roster, when you have Jaso, Montero, and Adam Moore that could handle the catching duties? Am I missing something? Back to the plate discipline. Since 2010, only Pablo Sandoval has a higher swing %, and only Mark Reynolds has a lower contact %. Miguel Olivo swings and misses at 20% of the pitches he sees. That leads all hitters and its not even close. Olivo strikes out in 28% of his at bats, and draws a walk 4% of the time. Both rank in the bottom 10 in baseball. Miguel Olivo, why are you on this team??!!!!

Sorry to put a stain on this post, but it felt good to express my joy in last night’s game, and also my disgust for Miguel Olivo, and this blog post is all about me and I’m a good guy and so deal with it. Enjoy the sun today and hopefully a Mariners win!

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by | March 9, 2012 · 12:26 pm

Bad News, Good News, Great News!

Ready for the bad news? It is a bleak day for Dawg fans, there’s no 2 ways around it. Yesterday’s loss was frustrating, untimely, but certainly not surprising, at least if you’ve followed this team all season. On one side, the Huskies exceeded pre-season expectations by winning the Pac 12 outright, a truly awesome accomplishment. On the other side, 20 of the Huskies 21 wins have come vs. opponents with an RPI of 75+, and time and time again the Dawgs have narrowly missed on opportunities to make a statement, and erase doubts. The biggest factor, for me anyway, is leadership. Gant is the only contributing senior, and I think he has done his best, but his personality is not that of a Brandon Roy, Will Conroy, Jon Brockman, Isaiah Thomas, or Quincy Pondexter. Gaddy, Ross, Wilcox and Wroten, for all the good that they’ve done in spurts, have not embraced the role of captain, the guy that pulls his teammates up in the face of adversity. The result is a plethora of head shaking moments, and some success based largely on raw talent like Lorenzo Romar has never had. It’s tough when talent does not fully translate, and potential is not reached. If this core stays together for another year and really gels, they are a top 10 team, but Ross and Wroten seem destined for the NBA, which nobody should blame them for.

Now for some good news. If the Huskies do make the big dance, which is officially an “if”, their seed will likely be an 11 or 12, rather than a 9 or 10 which seemed possible a week ago. But does it matter? I would argue being an 11 or 12 seed is often better than being a 9 or 10, at least in terms of making a sweet 16 run. The recent numbers back this up. Since 2001, here are the seeds, and what % have made the round of 16.

9 seed- 2/44 = 4.5% make sweet 16
10 seed- 8/44 = 18%
11 seed- 6/44 = 14%
12 seed- 9/44 = 20%

The great news? Check it out, your Mariners are in 1st place! Granted the games don’t “really” count, but we’ll take what we can get.

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by | February 9, 2012 · 4:43 pm

2012 AL West Team & Winter Wrap-Up

Unlike NCAA sports, pro sports don’t come out with pre-season 1st and 2nd teams, but if the AL West had its pre-season team, this is how I think it would shake out. My selection process looks at last year’s performance as well as potential this upcoming year, and often I use the sabermetric WAR to break ties. Some of the picks are obvious (Pujols), and others are less obvious (DH), so of course I’d love to hear your thoughts too.

A quick analysis shows that Texas is the class of the division, with more 1st team selections than the rest of the west combined. Anaheim has good 2nd tier depth, solid pitching, and balance. Texas and Anaheim each have 8 1st or 2nd team selections of the possible 10 positional categories, and of the 14 pitching spots, a whopping 11 are Rangers (6) and Angels (5). The M’s are a distant 3rd, but a ways ahead of the re-building A’s, who are loaded with average players but no star power whatsoever.

I wanted to take this chart one step further, and visually quantify the separation between teams based on these picks. To do so, I’ve simply awarded 2 points for a 1st team selection, and 1 point for a 2nd team selection. Here’s how it shakes out on a bar graph.

Lastly, here are team by team offseason wrap ups, after the jump… Continue reading →

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by | January 25, 2012 · 4:05 pm

The Rebuilding Process, Year 4

You guys, Prince just signed wtih the Detroit Tigers. What’s your take?

I understand all of these stances, but let’s recap the big picture, as in the 5 year rebuild Jack inherited in October 2008.

    THE BLUEPRINT

2009, Year 1: shed dead weight, begin overhauling the farm

2010, Year 2: shed dead weight, continue building the farm (and lock up Felix)

2011, Year 3: bring the youth up, evaluate potential, acquire more young talent

2012, Year 4: continue youth movement, achieve .500 record

2013, Year 5: add 1-2 big pieces, contend for playoffs

I wrote about Years 1 and 2 of the rebuilding process, as well as
Year 3. Welcome to Year 4 Mariner fans. For the first time on Jack’s watch, I think the on field W/L record is important. .500 ball is a reasonable expectation this year, which would be a welcomed site for our eyes. The blueprint I laid out reflects what we’ve seen Jack say and do for 3+ years, and the M’s are still on track to contend within 5 years of Bavasi’s exit.

There are multiple ways to rebuild a baseball organization, and dozens of varying factors must be weighed. In 4 1/2 years on the job, Bill Bavasi set this club back 5 years, minimum. I’ve said this before, and perhaps my bias is too entangled to make this statement, but I honestly think Bavasi might be the worst GM a baseball franchise has ever had.
Side Note-

In a 1 year stretch, From December 7, 2005—December 7, 2006, Bavasi made 7 trades involving players that made a major league roster. Combined, Bavasi traded Yorvit Torrealba, Matt Thornton, Asdrubal Cabrera, Eddie Guardado, Shin-Soo Choo, Jamie Moyer, and Rafael Soriano, in exchange for Joe Borchard, Eduardo Perez, Ben Broussard, Andy Baldwin, Sean White, and Horacio Ramirez.

As for player signings, more than half of Bavasi’s signings were horrible. His 12 worst were Scott Spiezio, Rich Aurilia, Richie Sexson, Pokey Reese, Jarrod Washburn, Carl Everett, Miguel Batista, Jeff Weaver, Yuniesky Betancourt, Carlos Silva, Brad Wilkerson, and Kenji Johjima (extension). That’s a combined $225 million. In the end, 7 were cut, 2 traded, and 2 (Batista and Washburn) played out the full contract.

Jack’s record is not flawless either. The Figgins deal is awful, trading Morse for Langerhans hurts, and you could question the Morrow trade and Guti extension. But he has hit some real home runs, and given the state of the organization, I agree with the blueprint that Jack has committed to. This is not to say there aren’t circumstances that deviate from the plan. Heck, when Cliff Lee fell into our lap, we were thinking playoffs, just 2 years into this regime. I’m a firm believer in adding talent when you get the chance, whether you are 1, 2, or 5 pieces from real contention, and I’d imagine Jack agrees. The M’s may have been competitive in the Prince bidding, but alas, year 4 will not include Prince Fielder, nor should it at the price he ultimately got. So the original plan continues, and all things considered, the plan is on track. The splash that elevates the M’s from re-build mode to contend mode will come, it’s just a year away.

I’ll leave you with this morsel, on the heels of losing Prince. The Tigers have committed $338m for Prince/Cabrera/V-Mart. Seattle’s mini-version of Smoak/Montero/Carp costs $1.26m.

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by | December 31, 2011 · 1:26 pm

Insightful Quick Hits About Your Local Teams

A Good Guys Post!! Stop everything and read!! This only happens every couple weeks!! The Good Guys are also busy guys, and the blog has been quiet lately, much like a friend that you have not spoken to in a while. The Good Guys are your friends, let’s catch up!

My mind is swirling with sports crap, which is not irregular by any means. I think I’ll just spew things out in a “local teams quick hits” format, and hopefully you love it. If you don’t love it, you’re just bitter, or grumpy, but I’m neither so don’t blame me.

MARINERS!
At this point, the off season is clearly hinging on Prince Fielder. The M’s have been quiet this winter, but when Prince signs, I’d imagine a couple moves will soon follow. I want Prince in Seattle, for a lot of reasons, but honestly if we don’t get him, I won’t be devastated. I’ve invested a good deal of time following the rumors, and I just want it to end. Assuming Prince signs elsewhere, the likelihood of the M’s contending for anything in the next 2 years seems bleak, but I’ve learned to not assume much in sports. Joey Votto could be available in a month for all we know. My point is, I don’t want to see a fire sale quite yet (felix), regardless of Prince.

HUSKIES FB!
Keith Price out-dueled RG3 in the Alamo Bowl, I can say that without hesitation. He is so smooth, poised, and likeable. I can’t wait to see what he does over the next 2 years. Of course, some of his performance is being overshadowed by what has to be the worst defensive performance any of us has seen. I knew our defense was bad, and this game was a recipe for disaster, but I can’t say I expected to see 777 yards given up, nor did I expect to lose by double digits, despite scoring 56 points. It is embarrassing on some levels, like something we are ashamed of is now out in the open. It’s like when a married couple is having some issues at home, but then they go to a restaurant and start throwing dishes. It’s like, well, I guess the whole town knows now. That made sense in my head.

HUSKIES BB!
The Huskies will win the Pac 12, you can put me on record for that. We all know the conference is down, and the Huskies record is not what we are used to seeing, but I think this is Romar’s most talented squad. On paper, we are loaded. I’m excited for the next couple months of Husky bball.

SEAHAWKS!
Depending on Sunday’s outcome against Arizona, the Hawks could draft as low as 19, or as high as 10 in 2012. Either way, ready yourself for a heavy dose of QB chatter for the next few months on sports radio. Common topics will include, “should the Hawks trade 3 1st rounders to get RG3?” “is mark sanchez a viable option?” “could kellen moore, ryan tannehill, or brandon weeden be the guy?” I love the chatter, I really do, but it gets old pretty quick. Nobody knows what will happen, but I do know the Seahawks look to have a promising future. I should also note that I have some crow to eat, because I said the 6-8 wins Seattle gets this year will be the most meaningless wins in team history, but 2-3 wins would mean a top tier QB in the draft. Well, I have flipped my stance on this, because the 7-8 wins are the result of a lot of things starting to click, and this trumps the high draft position we’d have if everything went wrong this year.

SONICS!
The NBA is back, and I can’t resist watching it. I loved the Sonics when they were here, probably more than any local team. Every so often there is some new arena story that pops up in a local paper, just to get my hopes up. A new one surfaced a couple weeks ago, about a possible arena in SoDo, headed by a San Francisco businessman that recently purchased a valuable piece of property south of Safeco Field, for $21.6 million. An unknown Bellevue investor is on this too apparently, and a proposal could come out in the months to come, in hopes of acquiring more land to build an arena, then lure NHL/NBA. In the mean time, Joe and I bought tickets to a Blazers game in February, against the Clippers. Should be fun, although I told Joe rooting for Portland would feel odd, especially if the NBA returned to Seattle someday, and I had to remember that one night I rooted for the Blazers. Yuck.

SOUNDERS!
I’m sure you all know the off season moves SSFC have been up to. No? Oh, well let me recap. We signed an Austrian keeper, Michael Gspurning, a Swedish defender, Adam Johansson, and now rumors have surfaced that the Sounders have agreed to terms with a 23 year old DANISH! midfielder, Christian Sivebaek.

T-BIRDS!
I went to a T-Birds came this past week, and saw a fight, 6,000 Kent Krazies, 2 zambonis, and at one point a hockey game broke out! T-Birds won 2-1 in a shootout, and I now follow some of their players on twitter. The players, by the way, are 15-20 years old, mainly Canadian, and all around good guys like us. As for the fight, here’s what Mitch Elliot tweeted that evening:

Mitch Elliot@melliot7
“Took more punches to the face then I had shifts tonight”

NORTHWEST EAGLES!
Last but not least, the NU Eagles Men’s basketball team is 15-0. Matthew and I are proud NU alums, and Andrew is currently attending. Matthew is the all time blocks leader at NU, and I hold the record for 8 consecutive triple-doubles. That was my test to see if you are still reading this. If you are, dang you have some serious spare time!

Finally, an Ichiro quote to wrap things up. This really should be how all posts conclude.

Nikkan Sports: There are some that think age may have played a part [in your rough season].

Ichiro: I admit that lately I find myself enjoying Enka music during Kohaku Uta Gassen. I am also more concerned about how young people are speaking and find that my skin is drier. So there are times where I feel like I am getting older.

HAPPY NEW YEAR.

-Dan

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by | November 18, 2011 · 3:51 pm

Nick Montana’s Passing Style

I’m all for unorthodox traits, but imagine how good Nick could be if he positions his hand on the laces?!

-Dan

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